TSN: Cody Ceci + Hapur + Luchuk and pick for Nikita Zeitsev + Brown + Carcone

[danielpalfredsson]

I think that Murray Pam tweet is just his opinion about us giving up the 3rd. I don't think he is saying that Garrioch said it or that he heard it from a source. Maybe I am wrong.

While cash is an asset, and it's pretty safe to assume that the Leafs holding back almost 4 million in cash via the bonuses+Harpur played a role in what we gave up, I highly doubt we'll ever hear it on the record or even leaked out by a credible insider.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Zaitsevs corsi was -5 last season.
Ceci was -338

Holy balls, I knew Zaitsev's numbers were bad, but I didn't know just how bad after checking hockey reference. To my surprise, Brown statistically really sucks as well. At least the eye test isn't as bad for Brown but for Zaitsev he fails statistically and bombs in the eye test as well.

 

[Micklebot]

Sorry man... your example here is rather meaningless

Whether you like my example or not its still worlds better than your faulty logic

 

[BankStreetParade]

View attachment 241985

Holy balls, I knew Zaitsev's numbers were bad, but I didn't know just how bad after checking hockey reference. To my surprise, Brown statistically really sucks as well. At least the eye test isn't as bad for Brown but for Zaitsev he fails statistically and bombs in the eye test as well.

I don't understand these stats very well. Could you explain the positioning of Matthews, Marner, Muzzin and Rielly relative to others on the list?

 

[JD1]

Whether you like my example or not its still worlds better than your faulty logic

I think you struggle with logic at times

Most here are further down on ceci than I am. But the take here seems to be that Zaitsev is an upgrade. If he is, then his contract is reasonable. Top 4 D with ufa years bought up, 4.5 is pretty reasonable.

 

[Micklebot]

I think you struggle with logic at times

Most here are further down on ceci than I am. But the take here seems to be that Zaitsev is an upgrade. If he is, then his contract is reasonable. Top 4 D with ufa years bought up, 4.5 is pretty reasonable.

Better than ceci and on a bad contract is not mutually exclusive. But sure, i am the one struggling with logic.

 

[BonkTastic]

I think people are pretty hung up about a 3rd round pick.

Who pays for a bonus and how it impacts a return on a trade is not a new subject in the NHL. Ryan O'Reilly's trade last summer occurred July 1 and St.L paid the bonus.

Of course there is a financial motivation. We're a budget team. It comes with the territory. Could we have kept the 3rd and paid the bonus? Sure I suppose. But seems like that money was used on Hainsey.

... and for the other three points I presented?

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I don't understand these stats very well. Could you explain the positioning of Matthews, Marner, Muzzin and Rielly relative to others on the list?

It's just relative Corsi so take CF% - off ice corsi. So those guys in the positive are generally possessing the puck more when on vs when they're off. The 4 guys we picked up all in the negative see the other team possess the puck more and get more shots.

The Fenwick is bad for Zaitsev as well (dead last D on the team).

He had 18 takeaways to his 79 giveaways (2nd on team, Hainsey was 3rd).

He generates very little on the offensive side of the puck. Only 31% of his shots taken make it to the net which is the worst of any Leafs player. I posted a chart earlier of Sens and Leafs D where Zaitsev is one of the worst at moving the puck as well (just above Ceci and Boro).

Zaitsev is a disastrous D man when he's on the ice for his team.

EDIT: here's the chart

 

[BankStreetParade]

It's just relative Corsi so take CF% - off ice corsi. So those guys in the positive are generally possessing the puck more when on vs when they're off. The 4 guys we picked up all in the negative see the other team possess the puck more and get more shots.

The Fenwick is bad for Zaitsev as well (dead last D on the team).

He had 18 takeaways to his 79 giveaways (2nd on team, Hainsey was 3rd).

He generates very little on the offensive side of the puck. Only 31% of his shots taken make it to the net which is the worst of any Leafs player. I posted a chart earlier of Sens and Leafs D where Zaitsev is one of the worst at moving the puck as well (just above Ceci and Boro).

Zaitsev is a disastrous D man when he's on the ice for his team.

EDIT: here's the chart
View attachment 242003

But Zaitsev and Hainsey were used in a shutdown role. Would the expectation be for them to have impress CF% and Fenwick? Zaitsev, Hainsey and Brown were 1, 2 and 4, respectively, on the SH TOI/G list for the Leafs. Zaitsev and Hainsey played nearly the most minutes at even strength against the other teams' top players. I'm not sure how I would understand those numbers. If they had impressive numbers in those situations, the Leafs wouldn't be trading either guy.

I think the way Ottawa viewed their usage, they're gambling on the idea that they can alter their usage in different situations to extract more out of them. Is it a smart gamble? No idea. But I don't know how anyone looks at a shutdown defenseman and says his possession numbers don't look good. I mean, what's more obvious than that?

 

[JungleBeat]

But Zaitsev and Hainsey were used in a shutdown role. Would the expectation be for them to have impress CF% and Fenwick? Zaitsev, Hainsey and Brown were 1, 2 and 4, respectively, on the SH TOI/G list for the Leafs. Zaitsev and Hainsey played nearly the most minutes at even strength against the other teams' top players. I'm not sure how I would understand those numbers. If they had impressive numbers in those situations, the Leafs wouldn't be trading either guy.

I think the way Ottawa viewed their usage, they're gambling on the idea that they can alter their usage in different situations to extract more out of them. Is it a smart gamble? No idea. But I don't know how anyone looks at a shutdown defenseman and says his possession numbers don't look good. I mean, what's more obvious than that?

Quality of competition has a marginal effect on corsi if you’re getting 15+ minutes a night. Quality of teammates is a much better indicator.

Anyways, Zaitsev is much better than Ceci but giving up a 3rd in the deal is idiotic while taking his contract.

 

[SENATOR]

Dorion just gave away third round pick in 2019 for 7 spots))) I call him, Dorion the third round idiot!!

 

[Philadelphia Collins]

Hard to pretend Ottawa will ever be competitive when they constantly have to give teams decent picks to pay minuscule signing bonuses for the mediocre players they are acquiring

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

But Zaitsev and Hainsey were used in a shutdown role. Would the expectation be for them to have impress CF% and Fenwick? Zaitsev, Hainsey and Brown were 1, 2 and 4, respectively, on the SH TOI/G list for the Leafs. Zaitsev and Hainsey played nearly the most minutes at even strength against the other teams' top players. I'm not sure how I would understand those numbers. If they had impressive numbers in those situations, the Leafs wouldn't be trading either guy.

I think the way Ottawa viewed their usage, they're gambling on the idea that they can alter their usage in different situations to extract more out of them. Is it a smart gamble? No idea. But I don't know how anyone looks at a shutdown defenseman and says his possession numbers don't look good. I mean, what's more obvious than that?

Zaitsev mostly played with Gardiner and Hainsey (before Muzzin) with Rielly. Zaitsev definitely got more SH toi and D zone starts but I don't know if you could say there was a traditional shutdown role given to either pair. He wasn't sheltered, but he did generally get roughed up pretty good by opposing team's top players.

Its staggering to see such a difference in numbers between Gardiner and Zaitsev though. I was reading an article from a Leafs blog that detailed how basically every player that plays with Zaitsev will perform statistically worse almost without exception.

 

[Xspyrit]

Stop it with all that logic.

You can also add that the money we saved bring Hainsey. Who in my mind isn't that bad as a veteran presence. rather have him then Boro as the leadership presence.

Hainsey for just 1 year, probably flipped at the deadline for a pick to a team who will need experience on D. Sure, he's pretty "old" now for NHL standards and is at the end of his career but he's a smart player with a very good stick. Hopefully the coaching staff is smart and manage the TOI correctly and spread it adequately. Hainsey played 20:15 per game last year, so if he plays around 19 minutes a game this season and pushes Borowiecki to a pure 7th D-man role, that's a win

Chabot-DeMelo
Wolanin-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Jaros
Borowiecki

I actually like that defense better than with Ceci and Harpur on it. The goal is not to win the Stanley Cup next season anyway.

Im not saying trade ceci for something great i am saying don't lock yourself into 5 years of a minor upgrade on Ceci. Bad is better than really bad but both should be avoided.

Brown is a decent player but he is not exactly a coveted piece to entice us into taking on a bad contract. We can get that type of player without doing so.

Bah, Zaitsev cap hit is 4.5 per year x 5 years, his real cost to the Sens is 3.9 per year. He is still just 27 y/o

I don't know if "bad contract" applies here. It's not 2009 anymore. 63 D-men are going to be paid more in 2019-20 (more coming), some are paid less only because they are on their ELCs (think Heiskanen) or RFA years (think Nurse, Morrissey).

In 1 or 2 years, there's going to be over a 100 D-men paid more than 4.5. Good thing for Ottawa is that he costs them 3.9 per year in reality. It allows Thomson and JBD to develop properly. Then you flip him when the time is right.

Zaitsev is another case of a player that was misused on his team. It's a bit of a change of scenery for both him and Ceci who both should look much better on their new teams if they are used adequately (like a 2nd pairing D-men, not shutdown)

 

[Qward]

I think people are too upset over this.
We just need Zaitsev to play more of a shut down role. Explain to him that his job is to get Chabot or Brannstrom the puck, which ever you are paired with. When they are on the rush you cover them defensively. We just need him to be the Methot to Karlsson.

 

[JD1]

... and for the other three points I presented?

Around here?

Cut Ceci loose and bury Harpur.... the bad asset mgmt takes would never end

 

[Micklebot]

Zaitsev is another case of a player that was misused on his team. It's a bit of a change of scenery for both him and Ceci who both should look much better on their new teams if they are used adequately (like a 2nd pairing D-men, not shutdown)

Your banking on both being right that he was just being misused, which imo is no guarantee, and that our HC who was part of the coaching staff that allegedly misused him will use him differently on a team that doesn't have anybody else for that very role.

Idk, i haven't seen anything to make me optimistic about this trade long term.

 

[The Lewler]

Just checking in from the boat to say lol , even after all this garbage we all keep coming here.. even on a boat on Canada day.

They are all trash. Ceci. Zaitsev. 3rd round pick. All trash assets.

 

[Brownbeard]

Thank you for taking Zaitsev.

 

[Icelevel]

Thank you for taking Zaitsev.

Don’t thank us. It’s 100% Dorion. He’s the guy you high five

 

[Icelevel]

One of these guys is an idiot.

(Im the furthest thing from a maple leaf fan but I recognize and appreciate competence)





Good luck to Cody, Ben and Jason. Hope you guys have success.

 

[jbeck5]

If Sens management seriously thought Oduya was an acceptable Methot replacement on the top pairing because EK 'liked' him, then it even further solidifies them as brain dead.

I remember reading numerous threads when we signed Oduya and Stars/Hawks fans agreeing almost unanimously that he was trash, and was essentially done. Do we even have pro scouts?

I've always thought this. We've always brought in players that were done that we could have used a few years before.

Luke richardson couldn't skate when he got here.
Martin Lapointe couldn't skate when he got here.
Jason Smith couldn't skate when he got here.
Jonathan Cheechoo couldn't skate when he got here.
Guillaume Latendresse couldn't skate when he got here.
David Legwand couldn't skate when he got here.
Dion Phaneuf couldn't skate when he got here.
Scott Gomez couldn't skate when he got here.
Johhny Oduya couldn't skate when he got here.

Where are our pro scouts that should be going "um have you seen this guy? He can't skate anymore. Let's not bring him on."?????

 

[Sensators]

I honestly thought ceci had some value. I know he's not good but he's still young and has good skating/strength. I thought another team might want to have him as a sort of reclamation project.

I'll reserve judgement on the players we got back for now but i don't get how we have to add to ceci to recieve cap dump.

 

[Xspyrit]

Your banking on both being right that he was just being misused, which imo is no guarantee, and that our HC who was part of the coaching staff that allegedly misused him will use him differently on a team that doesn't have anybody else for that very role.

Idk, i haven't seen anything to make me optimistic about this trade long term.

That's because you're not thinking of who he was acquired for. Ceci was in the same boat. Unless you think that Ceci will suddenly be good while Zaitsev not so much.

People talked about addition by substraction for a long time regarding Ceci. I didn't kow Zaitsev was his twin brother and there was another D-man (not on the Sens of course) that was in his league of bad.

You always learn with this board

 

[jbeck5]

Limited resources is exactly why getting zaitsev is a bad move. We traded our whipping boys for one of their's only their's is locked up for 5 years. Upgrade over Ceci, sure but we are still stuck with a bad contract for no reason.

We are banking on Zaitsev turning it around here. Maybe he does but a good 3rd liner isn't worth the risk when we are flooded with 3rd liners and lacking top 6 guys.

We criticized the leafs all year, doubly in the playoffs and rightly so, and now we have a third of them here, not the good ones though.

Zeitsev is a d...I know you know this, but the middle paragraph makes it sound like you're talking about forwards.