Player Discussion Christian Dvorak

[montreal]

some times it takes a little while after a trade to adjust, we'll see what happens

 

[Tyson]

He showed some life last night. He needs to pan out

 

[MarkJ]

I don't like excuses but in these last weeks he's been a game time decision so he's playing hurt.

 

[Fainting Couch]

The fainting couchers have been very quiet about him lately.

 

[Frankenheimer]

Patience is definitely warranted. We have not seen the best of Dvorak.

 

[1909]

Let's just say that he is playing injured.

 

[brakeyawself]

We all know Danault wanted out, so that's not (entirely) on Bergevin.

But losing KK to end up with this guy... mismanagement.

Don't think "losing KK" is the problem. KK still isn't worth what Canes paid for him. Definitely not worth 6 mil per, or the picks. Just because Dvorak hasn't worked out, YET, doesn't mean losing KK was a bad move.

And really, sure, Dvorak might not be what many hoped for or expected, he just hasn't adjusted well. But that doesn't mean he won't. Some guys don't adjust to new teams until the complete second year. Which is longer than you would want obviously. But it still doesn't mean he will ultimately be a bust.

All though I did think he'd be better defensively, which is probably more of a problem. Ideally, in like 2 years, he would have been good enough to remain a 2C. But the "worst" case seemed to be, if he's not in 2 years, you can still bring in a better 2C and move him to 3C. I'm just not sure Dvorak has looked ideal for 3C right now either. I don't think it would be as much of a worry if he were better defensively and Habs could go into the offseason with a clear plan to sign a 2C and move Dvorak down to 3C. But even that seems hit or miss at this point.

Anyway, ultimately, patience is required. He's in Montreal now. He needs to be given ample time to adjust. It's not like if he were playing better this team, as a whole, would suddenly look like they're going to return to the Cup finals. So this has to be looked at as a sort of developmental year. Which allows Dvorak more time.

I think more than anything, the team needs to sheer it's forward group down a bit, sheer its D corp down a bit, and focus on the players you will want going forward or HAVE to keep going forward. And then focus on retooling those positions over time. And if there is any 2 year period to stink it up, with an opportunity for a lottery win, it's the next two seasons. And all though some have suggested the 2022 draft won't be any good after Wright, I wholly disagree. It may not seem as deep as other drafts, but there are still plenty of good players for losing teams to draft. And perhaps even more so in 2023. Take 2 years to develop the young core further, shed some older vets and bigger contracts, and in 3 years time, with or without Dvorak, the Habs should be looking at a bright future.

Obviously, guys like Suzuki, Romanov, Caufield etc. should be that focus. Suzuki I think is a genuine star, a genuine 1C. And that's a great start. Having a sniper like Caufield as a 2nd piece just adds to that foundation. Heck even Poehling and Evans still could be key pieces of the future. Toffoli could probably stick around. I'd want to keep Petry I think. But it's probably time for guys like Gallagher to move on. I don't think he will actually be worth his contract. And while I like Anderson, I don't like his contract. Really didn't think it was necessary. But probably stuck with him. To me he's a good 3rd liner. A guy who can fill in on the 2nd line. But not quite worth what he will be paid over the next 5 years. Everyone worried about Dvorak, but here is Anderson, just given a new contract with a cap hit of 5.5 mil per, and he's a -12 with 9 points to his name. I'd be pretty worried about his contract also. And I think both the Gallagher and Anderson contracts are pretty bad for where this team is at the moment.

And frankly, as nice as the story would be for Price to be a career Hab, he'd probably serve the team better being sold for parts to a contender than remaining on a developing team for the next 3 years or whatever. And hopefully CP is actually his replacement of the future, not necessitating more big investment in anything goalie.

 

[Doc McKenna]

Don't think "losing KK" is the problem. KK still isn't worth what Canes paid for him. Definitely not worth 6 mil per, or the picks. Just because Dvorak hasn't worked out, YET, doesn't mean losing KK was a bad move.

And really, sure, Dvorak might not be what many hoped for or expected, he just hasn't adjusted well. But that doesn't mean he won't. Some guys don't adjust to new teams until the complete second year. Which is longer than you would want obviously. But it still doesn't mean he will ultimately be a bust.

All though I did think he'd be better defensively, which is probably more of a problem. Ideally, in like 2 years, he would have been good enough to remain a 2C. But the "worst" case seemed to be, if he's not in 2 years, you can still bring in a better 2C and move him to 3C. I'm just not sure Dvorak has looked ideal for 3C right now either. I don't think it would be as much of a worry if he were better defensively and Habs could go into the offseason with a clear plan to sign a 2C and move Dvorak down to 3C. But even that seems hit or miss at this point.

Anyway, ultimately, patience is required. He's in Montreal now. He needs to be given ample time to adjust. It's not like if he were playing better this team, as a whole, would suddenly look like they're going to return to the Cup finals. So this has to be looked at as a sort of developmental year. Which allows Dvorak more time.

I think more than anything, the team needs to sheer it's forward group down a bit, sheer its D corp down a bit, and focus on the players you will want going forward or HAVE to keep going forward. And then focus on retooling those positions over time. And if there is any 2 year period to stink it up, with an opportunity for a lottery win, it's the next two seasons. And all though some have suggested the 2022 draft won't be any good after Wright, I wholly disagree. It may not seem as deep as other drafts, but there are still plenty of good players for losing teams to draft. And perhaps even more so in 2023. Take 2 years to develop the young core further, shed some older vets and bigger contracts, and in 3 years time, with or without Dvorak, the Habs should be looking at a bright future.

Obviously, guys like Suzuki, Romanov, Caufield etc. should be that focus. Heck even Poehling and Evans still. Toffoli could probably stick around. I'd want to keep Petry I think. But it's probably time for guys like Gallagher to move on. And frankly, as nice as the story would be for Price to be a career Hab, he'd probably serve the team better being sold for parts to a contender than remaining on a developing team for the next 3 years or whatever. And hopefully CP is actually his replacement of the future, not necessitating more big investment in anything goalie.

We traded more for dvorak than we got for KK, one is 25 the other turned 21 over the summer. Ill let you guess which is closer to his potential.

EVERYONE knows KK isn't worth 6 million. Thats the point of an offer sheet. To make it unpalatable to the right holders team to match. Same as Webers OS. If the offer sheet was fair value the team would of course match. No one would ever steal a player otherwise.

Dvorak is a replacement for danault we were told. We didn't replace KK. Start from that premise and understand we lost because we lost 2 centers and didn't replace with one that is likely as good as either.

ETA yes MB has no clue on how to relate contract to value for players talent. Its prob paid a role in contract negotiations for KK this past summer.

 

[brakeyawself]

We traded more for dvorak than we got for KK, one is 25 the other turned 21 over the summer. Ill let you guess which is closer to his potential.

EVERYONE knows KK isn't worth 6 million. Thats the point of an offer sheet. To make it unpalatable to the right holders team to match. Same as Webers OS. If the offer sheet was fair value the team would of course match. No one would ever steal a player otherwise.

Dvorak is a replacement for danault we were told. We didn't replace KK. Start from that premise and understand we lost because we lost 2 centers and didn't replace with one that is likely as good as either.

Why because it was a 1st and a 2nd instead of a 1st and a 3rd? That is such a minor and mostly irrelevant difference. The NHL draft has a systemically low success rate. Once you get out of the top 5 it drops, once you get past the top 10, it drops further and so on. By the time you get to the 2nd round, you are basically talking about such awful odds that there isn't as big a gap between the 2nd and 3rd round as the 1st half of the 1st round and the entire rest of the draft, and even the entire 1st round compared to the rest of the draft. Add to that the extra 500k for KK and the extra years on Dvorak's contract and it's pretty much a wash IMO.

But also, you are saying that as if this is the best Dvorak can be, which it's not. Again, he needs more time to adjust. I don't think he will ever be a star. But then I don't think KK will either. And at least Dvorak is wrapped up for a few years at 5.5. KK is on 1 year at 6, do you think he will accept less going forward while still not really producing?

I would honestly rather have Dvorak on his contract than KK on his. STILL. Considering how both have played and looked. And I am still more optimistic Dvorak will eventually settle in and become at least a viable middle 6 guy, even if he has to eventually move to the wing, than I am that KK will ever be an actual top 6 guy worth what he's going to get paid. So I really don't think that difference of a 2nd and 3rd round pick is that significant at all. Actually, I would rather have the difference in their contracts than the difference between the 2nd and 3rd round pick. I think the contract difference is worth way more ultimately.

 

[Doc McKenna]

Why because it was a 1st and a 2nd instead of a 1st and a 3rd? That is such a minor and mostly irrelevant difference. The NHL draft has a systemically low success rate. Once you get out of the top 5 it drops, once you get past the top 10, it drops further and so on. By the time you get to the 2nd round, you are basically talking about such awful odds that there isn't as big a gap between the 2nd and 3rd round as the 1st half of the 1st round and the entire rest of the draft, and even the entire 1st round compared to the rest of the draft. Add to that the extra 500k for KK and the extra years on Dvorak's contract and it's pretty much a wash IMO.

But also, you are saying that as if this is the best Dvorak can be, which it's not. Again, he needs more time to adjust. I don't think he will ever be a star. But then I don't think KK will either. And at least Dvorak is wrapped up for a few years at 5.5. KK is on 1 year at 6, do you think he will accept less going forward while still not really producing?

I would honestly rather have Dvorak on his contract than KK on his. STILL. Considering how both have played and looked. And I am still more optimistic Dvorak will eventually settle in and become at least a viable middle 6 guy, even if he has to eventually move to the wing, than I am that KK will ever be an actual top 6 guy worth what he's going to get paid. So I really don't think that difference of a 2nd and 3rd round pick is that significant at all. Actually, I would rather have the difference in their contracts than the difference between the 2nd and 3rd round pick. I think the contract difference is worth way more ultimately.

Pure deflection. Should never have gotten to this point to start with. The difference is a late 3rd round vs an early 2nd could be as much as 50 players lower.

To some drafting is throwing darts, to others it is giving two low 2nd round picks( more than an offersheet for shaws contract) to chicago that becomes debrincat, for one andrew shaw that habs trade back for lesser picks...sound familiar?

Bar can never be low enough in habland. Everything is fine.

 

[brakeyawself]

Pure deflection. Should never have gotten to this point to start with. The difference is a late 3rd round vs an early 2nd could be as much as 50 players lower.

To some drafting is throwing darts, to others it is giving two low 2nd round picks( more than an offersheet for shaws contract) to chicago that becomes debrincat, for one andrew shaw that habs trade back for lesser picks...sound familiar?

Bar can never be low enough in habland. Everything is fine.

No deflection, this is about KK vs Dvorak right? That's the argument here. And in your eyes, losing a 2nd round pick instead of a 3rd makes all the difference in the world. When in reality, that difference is SO minimal and insignificant. The difference in contract is MORE valuable than the difference between one 2nd round pick and one 3rd round pick.

You are overvaluing a 2nd round pick. In that 50 players, the difference is generally minimal. This is a topic that has been written about and discussed at length. There are plenty of articles and books for you to read on the subject. NHL 2nd round picks simply are NOT that much more valuable, from a statistical standpoint of success/failure, than a 3rd round pick.

You are using outliers as proof of value. That's not how it works. A 3rd round pick could become Braden Point or a 5th round pick could become Kucherov. It doesn't change the extremely low success rate of ALL NHL draft picks, but especially those after the 1st round. It doesn't matter how many individual success stories you rattle off, that doesn't change the overall rate of success/failure and thus the value of those picks.

Your entire argument is fallacious and based on outliers. But keep tooting that horn. It doesn't change reality.

And I am really not from "Habland". I am a tourist. I am a Ranger fan, born and bred in NYC, who absolutely fell in love with Montreal and Quebec City when I was younger. Up until the pandemic, I would make sure to visit both Montreal and QC at least every 2 years. And in that time I have become familiar with and attached to both cities and their people, looking at Quebec in general as "home away from home". So I follow the Habs very closely and also root for QC to get a team back. In that sense, I think I am coming at this from a less attached perspective and a more objective, less passionate one. I will never suggest I know more about the Habs or even watch them AS closely as many Habs fans. But I do follow hockey very closely and the draft and scouting as a whole. And this is a topic that again has been well written and discussed about. And I do follow the Habs to a higher degree than most general hockey fans I would say. But the Rangers are my primary focus. Not hiding any of that.

 

[aresknights]

We traded more for dvorak than we got for KK, one is 25 the other turned 21 over the summer. Ill let you guess which is closer to his potential.

EVERYONE knows KK isn't worth 6 million. Thats the point of an offer sheet. To make it unpalatable to the right holders team to match. Same as Webers OS. If the offer sheet was fair value the team would of course match. No one would ever steal a player otherwise.

Dvorak is a replacement for danault we were told. We didn't replace KK. Start from that premise and understand we lost because we lost 2 centers and didn't replace with one that is likely as good as either.

ETA yes MB has no clue on how to relate contract to value for players talent. Its prob paid a role in contract negotiations for KK this past summer.

Danualt was a tough loss but throwing KK into that mix is comical.
4 pts or whatever it is???????? Guess it wasn't just Habs coaching that screwed him over. Maybe a tiny bit of it is on him??? I dunno. I would not have picked him to start but don't claim to be an NHL scout.
I don't care if he is 21. On a great team n got 4pts in 16 games, cmon. Thats bad. Moving slowly sown the lineup I'm guessing.
I'd take DVO this year next year n the year after easy. AINEC. That's in spite of his slow start n injuries. He will add more value over the next 3 years easy.

 

[Doc McKenna]

No deflection, this is about KK vs Dvorak right? That's the argument here. And in your eyes, losing a 2nd round pick instead of a 3rd makes all the difference in the world. When in reality, that difference is SO minimal and insignificant. The difference in contract is MORE valuable than the difference between one 2nd round pick and one 3rd round pick.

You are overvaluing a 2nd round pick. In that 50 players, the difference is generally minimal. This is a topic that has been written about and discussed at length. There are plenty of articles and books for you to read on the subject. NHL 2nd round picks simply are NOT that much more valuable, from a statistical standpoint of success/failure, than a 3rd round pick.

You are using outliers as proof of value. That's not how it works. A 3rd round pick could become Braden Point or a 5th round pick could become Kucherov. It doesn't change the extremely low success rate of ALL NHL draft picks, but especially those after the 1st round. It doesn't matter how many individual success stories you rattle off, that doesn't change the overall rate of success/failure and thus the value of those picks.

Your entire argument is fallacious and based on outliers. But keep tooting that horn. It doesn't change reality.

And I am really not from "Habland". I am a tourist. I am a Ranger fan, born and bred in NYC, who absolutely fell in love with Montreal and Quebec City when I was younger. Up until the pandemic, I would make sure to visit both Montreal and QC at least every 2 years. And in that time I have become familiar with and attached to both cities and their people, looking at Quebec in general as "home away from home". So I follow the Habs very closely and also root for QC to get a team back. In that sense, I think I am coming at this from a less attached perspective and a more objective, less passionate one. I will never suggest I know more about the Habs or even watch them AS closely as many Habs fans. But I do follow hockey very closely and the draft and scouting as a whole. And this is a topic that again has been well written and discussed about. And I do follow the Habs to a higher degree than most general hockey fans I would say. But the Rangers are my primary focus. Not hiding any of that.

No because KK wasn't being replaced with Dvorak. It was danault and KK vs dvorak

I could care less from WHERE you cheer, this is the hab board and thus habland.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

Patience is definitely warranted. We have not seen the best of Dvorak.

Will we ever see it, what is the best he can do? Can he skate fast, can he win 55% face offs?

 

[Doc McKenna]

Danualt was a tough loss but throwing KK into that mix is comical.
4 pts or whatever it is???????? Guess it wasn't just Habs coaching that screwed him over. Maybe a tiny bit of it is on him??? I dunno. I would not have picked him to start but don't claim to be an NHL scout.
I don't care if he is 21. On a great team n got 4pts in 16 games, cmon. Thats bad. Moving slowly sown the lineup I'm guessing.
I'd take DVO this year next year n the year after easy. AINEC. That's in spite of his slow start n injuries. He will add more value over the next 3 years easy.

Playing 12 minutes a game since the start of the season.. Was critiqued for only scoring 5 goals last season, has 3 in 15 games. Its always on the player. Is this you Marc? So one player at 25 vs danault and a just turned 21 year old-THIS is better in your opinion.
MB was trying to acquire dvorak before losing KK, but wouldn't pay a first rounder, after the offer sheet he had to replace 2 centers.
LOW BAR.

 

[aresknights]

Playing 12 minutes a game since the start of the season.. Was critiqued for only scoring 5 goals last season, has 3 in 15 games. Its always on the player. Is this you Marc? So one player at 25 vs danault and a just turned 21 year old-THIS is better in your opinion.
MB was trying to acquire dvorak before losing KK, but wouldn't pay a first rounder, after the offer sheet he had to replace 2 centers.
LOW BAR.

Nope not Marc but OK if ya think that dig helps ya go for it.
DVO >>>> KK and that was the just of my post. And he will be over the next 3 years easy. This bashing of whoever cause KK wasn't matched is comical.
It was easily the right decision. Easily. Question the pick to begin with ( as I did in my post) but to suggest they should have matched is just stupid.
I said Danualt was a tough loss. So no idea what your trying to spin in your response.
That was my post lol.
Use your emojis, move goalposts, take ur digs......says a lot
Did I use the right emoji?

 

[Frankenheimer]

Will we ever see it, what is the best he can do? Can he skate fast, can he win 55% face offs?

There are some positives. He currently has twice as many points as KK on an inferior team. He seems to be trending in the right direction. I’m just saying let’s be patient.

 

[Catanddogguitarrr]

There are some positives. He currently has twice as many points as KK on an inferior team. He seems to be trending in the right direction. I’m just saying let’s be patient.

KK now is not in the discussion. If we talk about KK, that's his potential. What he will become when he wil be 24 y. Dvorak have to be compared with Danault now. Or you think losing KK is hurts us more than losing Danault. KK plays 3rd winger limited time.

 

[Fainting Couch]

I could care less

*Couldn't. I bet you meant couldn't.

 

[Colezuki]

Nope not Marc but OK if ya think that dig helps ya go for it.
DVO >>>> KK and that was the just of my post. And he will be over the next 3 years easy. This bashing of whoever cause KK wasn't matched is comical.
It was easily the right decision. Easily. Question the pick to begin with ( as I did in my post) but to suggest they should have matched is just stupid.
I said Danualt was a tough loss. So no idea what your trying to spin in your response.
That was my post lol.
Use your emojis, move goalposts, take ur digs......says a lot
Did I use the right emoji?

I don't think that was the case, I think he wanted DVO with a lottery protected pick, which ultimately he did get, also your conveniently forgetting that if he did that trade he'd need to get KK signed to 1.5M?

 

[aresknights]

I don't think that was the case, I think he wanted DVO with a lottery protected pick, which ultimately he did get, also your conveniently forgetting that if he did that trade he'd need to get KK signed to 1.5M?

I dont understand?
Conveniently forgot what? I didn't conveniently leavo out anything. Did what trade? And what 1.5 mil for KK?
Please explain. I really don't get it. Your reading between lines tgat aren't there in my post.

My point again......
KK got OS. It was smart to take the compensation and not pay KK 6mil. It woulda been dumb to match for a lot of reasons.
With the compensation Habs got for letting KK walk, they had NEW flexibility to trade for DVO.
Danualt woulda been nice to retain but that's a separate issue. And happened before the KK issue.

In a best case scenario Ida rather paifmd Danualt for 3/4 yrs, let KK walk, trade for DVO and not sign Hoffmanan or Savard but that's all hindsight. No biggie. And definitely not what I mentioned in my post you responded to.

 

[Colezuki]

I dont understand?
Conveniently forgot what? I didn't conveniently leavo out anything. Did what trade? And what 1.5 mil for KK?
Please explain. I really don't get it. Your reading between lines tgat aren't there in my post.

My point again......
KK got OS. It was smart to take the compensation and not pay KK 6mil. It woulda been dumb to match for a lot of reasons.
With the compensation Habs got for letting KK walk, they had NEW flexibility to trade for DVO.
Danualt woulda been nice to retain but that's a separate issue. And happened before the KK issue.

In a best case scenario Ida rather paifmd Danualt for 3/4 yrs, let KK walk, trade for DVO and not sign Hoffmanan or Savard but that's all hindsight. No biggie. And definitely not what I mentioned in my post you responded to.

I may have misunderstood what you we're saying, it sounded to me like your implication was he was incompetently trying to do both get KK and DVO, but at that point (august) we had limited salary cap room and if we had to get DVO we would have had to have signed KK to something <$2M, no? I think he gave up on DVO prior to the KK offersheet and than revisted after the offersheet.

Anyway sorry for misrepresenting not my intent

 

[aresknights]

I may have misunderstood what you we're saying, it sounded to me like your implication was he was incompetently trying to do both get KK and DVO, but at that point (august) we had limited salary cap room and if we had to get DVO we would have had to have signed KK to something <$2M, no? I think he gave up on DVO prior to the KK offersheet and than revisted after the offersheet.

Anyway sorry for misrepresenting not my intent

That very well may have been the situation. Seems reasonable.
In the end I'd rather have DVO than KK at the salaries they will earn over next 3/4 yrs ( yes that is a variable with KK)
Cheers

 

[Colezuki]

That very well may have been the situation. Seems reasonable.
In the end I'd rather have DVO than KK at the salaries they will earn over next 3/4 yrs ( yes that is a variable with KK)
Cheers

agreed have a good night

 

[1909]

I dont understand?
Conveniently forgot what? I didn't conveniently leavo out anything. Did what trade? And what 1.5 mil for KK?
Please explain. I really don't get it. Your reading between lines tgat aren't there in my post.

My point again......
KK got OS. It was smart to take the compensation and not pay KK 6mil. It woulda been dumb to match for a lot of reasons.
With the compensation Habs got for letting KK walk, they had NEW flexibility to trade for DVO.
Danualt woulda been nice to retain but that's a separate issue. And happened before the KK issue.

In a best case scenario Ida rather paifmd Danualt for 3/4 yrs, let KK walk, trade for DVO and not sign Hoffmanan or Savard but that's all hindsight. No biggie. And definitely not what I mentioned in my post you responded to.

Danault.