Rumor: Chris Kreider Arb numbers

[WesMcCauley]

I seriously wonder if the guy has his automatic Kreider defense posts saved in his User CP notepad, they are always identical.

I think Kreids settles for 4.3 AAV over 4 years.

I laughed

 

[Irishguy42]

FWIW, Brooks speculated that Kreider is looking for 5.25M and the Rangers are looking for 4.75M. Both looking at four or five years.

http://nypost.com/2016/07/20/the-long-term-deal-gulf-facing-rangers-kreider-before-hearing/

The parties are in ongoing negotiations concerning a four- or five-year deal that would buy out No. 20’s first two or three years of unrestricted free agency. It is believed the Rangers are offering in the neighborhood of $4.75 million per with Kreider seeking approximately $5.25 million per.

 

[Eric Sachs]

Lots of people in this thread really don't get arbitration. This is a 1 o r 2 year contract with ONLY RFA years involved. This isn't going to be comparable to the Palmieri or Shaw deals as those involved UFA years which cost more $$$. The numbers reported today are the valuations for the RFA years, not the UFA years or the total AAV of a long term contract.

Kreider elected arbitration, so doubtful the Rangers elected a two year term which would leave him a UFA at the end of it

So it's likely a 1 year term being arbitrated if it comes down to it.

Finding comparable players who have only a 1 year term in their 2nd to last RFA year, or even their last RFA year, I have not been able to find any.

I agree about 1 year, was just saying it's RFA only and 1-2 years possible. Also, any contracts signed when RFA are acceptable evidence in these cases.. they don't have to be RFA only or in the same situation as Kreider. I imagine Palmieri's deal will be used as evidence by one of the sides, etc. It is contracts signed by UFAs that are inadmissible.

He did get less for those years. His salaries are:

4.5
4.5
5
5
4.25

It's interesting that the final year is the lowest. I'm surprised that Palmieri agreed to that.

Johansson is a similar case, although he was only 1 year away from UFA. He got:

4.25
4.75
4.75

He has slightly better numbers than Kreider over the last 3 years and Palmieri just had a 30 goal, 57 point season, so I would expect Kreider to end up a little lower than either of them on a 4 year deal. Maybe something like this:

4.25
4.25
4.75
4.75

4.5 AAV

I don't think using the breakdown by year is a good way to assess this though. What's more likely is they agreed on a total AAV (using some metric of worth per year) and then negotiated to give some of the money earlier to give Palmieri extra incentive. You see this stuff a lot nowadays with frontloaded deals so it's not uncommon. There's no real downside for Palmieri as it's not like the last year is used to determine qualifying offers or anything.

I seriously wonder if the guy has his automatic Kreider defense posts saved in his User CP notepad, they are always identical.

I think Kreids settles for 4.3 AAV over 4 years.

Doubt it. He's valuing his RFA years at 4.75M.. I imagine his ask for UFA years is closer to 5.5M. Brooks reports similarly.

4.75M for RFA year 1
4.75M for RFA year 2
5.5M for UFA year 1
5.5M for UFA year 2

5.125M so his ask for UFA years is actually even higher as per Brooks.

 

[BA Carroll]

I'd rather not trade for Shatty, but sign him as a UFA, if anything.

That being said, for the bolded, I honestly think that any Shattenkirk trade to anyone is dependent on an extension being done.

Why?

Shattenkirk has publicly expressed a desire to play "closer to home". We know he would sign a fair long term offer from the Rangers.
Losing him isn't really a risk, unless you're intending to lowball him.
If it's cost certainty you're after, that's understandable--but still shouldn't be a deal breaker. If NYR want him.bad enough to trade an asset for him now, they will find a way to sign him.

Kreider is the player who is most likely to walk. If he takes a one year arbitration deal, he's a UFA when it concludes, right?
If so, surely his value is more effected by his contract status then Shattenkirk's is.

 

[mouser]

Why?

Shattenkirk has publicly expressed a desire to play "closer to home". We know he would sign a fair long term offer from the Rangers.
Losing him isn't really a risk, unless you're intending to lowball him.
If it's cost certainty you're after, that's understandable--but still shouldn't be a deal breaker. If NYR want him.bad enough to trade an asset for him now, they will find a way to sign him.

Kreider is the player who is most likely to walk. If he takes a one year arbitration deal, he's a UFA when it concludes, right?
If so, surely his value is more effected by his contract status then Shattenkirk's is.

No, he would not be a UFA until 2018-19.

 

[KingDeathMetal]

$5m per for 4-5 years would be good.

This trade him for Shattenkirk nonsense is...nonsense!

If he wants to be a Ranger, he can wait until FA. Just tell St. Louis you won't sign with anyone until July, so he's either a rental for a contender or he gets to make a run at the Cup with STL then sign with the Rangers like he supposedly wants to.

But the Rangers would be knee-capping themselves making such a trade right now. Figure out how to unload Nash or Staal/Girardi first (unless we're talking Shatty for Nash straight up).

 

[ManofSteel55]

I'll guess he gets 4.5

 

[Machinehead]

Kreider's numbers are very fair. Rangers numbers are typical of how they treat their employees unless you're Dan Girardi and you're a god damn ****ing warrior.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Kreider's numbers are very fair. Rangers numbers are typical of how they treat their employees unless you're Dan Girardi and you're a god damn ****ing warrior.

Guy plays his heart out for you and this is the thanks he gets.

 

[1909]

Habs will trade them Emelin + DD.

 

[go4hockey]

This makes me think Shattenkirk for Kreider + is a very real possibility.

Maybe Shattenkirk for Kreider + 1st, and the 1st is given back if by some snowballs chance the Rangers don't extend Shatty.

At some point the NYR need to quit trading their 1st rounders or they are going to bury themselves, if they haven't already.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

His hearing is Friday. The numbers are usually linked a few days before the cases.

Thanks.

 

[WesMcCauley]

Guy plays his heart out for you and this is the thanks he gets.

Playing his heart out is a positive if he actually did anything good. When you only impact the game negativly it doesnt matter if you play your heart out. It would be a decent comment 4 years ago, last season nothing justified him staying in the lineup except his insane salary

 

[bernmeister]

Because Kreider is big, fast, has game breaking potential and size/speed that no one has, etc...

There, i'm saving you the trouble.

Thanks, I've been very busy!

You forgot without him we are Montreal
Classic Bern

Nice to see you are paying attention, and getting it!
PS - Joke all ya want, but WHAT I SAID IS FACTUALLY TRUE
reflect on that...

Now that we've gotten that out of the way, here is a proposal that trades all of our centers away, etc.

It's a plus when instead of taking 2 firsts + like I prop'ed, Sens made it a deuce + Zibby, so we got a righty C out of it NOW.

however, that plus does not change that if it were unavailable, we still do deals which improve the team and bring back more which helps the future.

I think we move on from pursuit of Dumba, but I was early on Stepan for Dumba + 2016 1st + acceptable +.

Do we NOT do this deal just because we are dropping a C?

Gorton is, it appears and we hope, on the bernmeister plan: keep the young core, trade the vets, reduce salary and # for expansion draft. Lead, follow or get out of the way!

I seriously wonder if the guy has his automatic Kreider defense posts saved in his User CP notepad, they are always identical.

I think Kreids settles for 4.3 AAV over 4 years.

Thanks for reminding me about the notepad, I have simply been consistent.

Except Hayes because he's big and young and without him we also = Canadiens!!

Factually true! ... just admit it.

Don't forget getting Chara to play as a 4th line forward.

Let's be honest here.
multiple incarnations of this, some moving Girardi in prior years, no longer applicable, now to move Nash BUT ALSO in that deal

WHAT YOU ARE OMITTING IS RANGERS WOULD ADD Jimmy Hayes and McAvoy!

be critical, fine, just tell the whole story not be selective.

I thought Dylan had that spot?

Chara LD, too slow for D, and we need him only useful on PP at point or in front of crease, so specialty W is best

McIlrath, rather than lose him in a bad trade, yes, I'd play him at 4RW. 8 days a wk to quote the fab 4.

I laughed

tis better to laugh than cry
knock yourself out, even if you have to imagine it at my expense!

FWIW, Brooks speculated that Kreider is looking for 5.25M and the Rangers are looking for 4.75M. Both looking at four or five years.

http://nypost.com/2016/07/20/the-long-term-deal-gulf-facing-rangers-kreider-before-hearing/

They will do what they are gonna do.

best deal IMO is 8 yrs,
Starts 3.5 adds .4 every year, player has right to buy out at cost of 1m after 5 years, = 5.5 base going forward, last 3 yrs would be 5.9, 6.3 and 6.7.
buy out gives club 1 yr advance notice, and dibs to make new offer if buy out engaged

 

[WesMcCauley]

Thanks, I've been very busy!



Nice to see you are paying attention, and getting it!
PS - Joke all ya want, but WHAT I SAID IS FACTUALLY TRUE
reflect on that...




It's a plus when instead of taking 2 firsts + like I prop'ed, Sens made it a deuce + Zibby, so we got a righty C out of it NOW.

however, that plus does not change that if it were unavailable, we still do deals which improve the team and bring back more which helps the future.

I think we move on from pursuit of Dumba, but I was early on Stepan for Dumba + 2016 1st + acceptable +.

Do we NOT do this deal just because we are dropping a C?

Gorton is, it appears and we hope, on the bernmeister plan: keep the young core, trade the vets, reduce salary and # for expansion draft. Lead, follow or get out of the way!




Thanks for reminding me about the notepad, I have simply been consistent.




Factually true! ... just admit it.



Let's be honest here.
multiple incarnations of this, some moving Girardi in prior years, no longer applicable, now to move Nash BUT ALSO in that deal

WHAT YOU ARE OMITTING IS RANGERS WOULD ADD Jimmy Hayes and McAvoy!

be critical, fine, just tell the whole story not be selective.




Chara LD, too slow for D, and we need him only useful on PP at point or in front of crease, so specialty W is best

McIlrath, rather than lose him in a bad trade, yes, I'd play him at 4RW. 8 days a wk to quote the fab 4.



tis better to laugh than cry
knock yourself out, even if you have to imagine it at my expense!




They will do what they are gonna do.

best deal IMO is 8 yrs,
Starts 3.5 adds .4 every year, player has right to buy out at cost of 1m after 5 years, = 5.5 base going forward, last 3 yrs would be 5.9, 6.3 and 6.7.
buy out gives club 1 yr advance notice, and dibs to make new offer if buy out engaged

Only problem with the "without Kreider and Hayes we Are Montreal" is that none of them Are physical at all. Hayes is the definition of soft player.... He has no physical game in him at all, if he has he hasnt showed it yet. He is also slower than a turtle and a horrible skater. He is a worse skater than Stepan was when he came into the league... Stepan has turned into a pretty solid skater now but lacks that high end speed. Hayes really needs to start work on that because if he can get better at that he has some seriously good hands. Zucc, Miller etc Are alot more physical than bigboy Kevin Hayes....
Kreider has speed and size but very rarely uses his size to his advantage when he forecheck or with the puck. When he is going its because he finds space with his speed.

 

[bernmeister]

Because Kreider is big, fast, has game breaking potential and size/speed that no one has, etc...

There, i'm saving you the trouble.

You forgot without him we are Montreal

Classic Bern

Now that we've gotten that out of the way, here is a proposal that trades all of our centers away, etc.

I seriously wonder if the guy has his automatic Kreider defense posts saved in his User CP notepad, they are always identical.

I think Kreids settles for 4.3 AAV over 4 years.

Except Hayes because he's big and young and without him we also = Canadiens!!

Don't forget getting Chara to play as a 4th line forward.

I thought Dylan had that spot?

I laughed

FWIW, Brooks speculated that Kreider is looking for 5.25M and the Rangers are looking for 4.75M. Both looking at four or five years.

http://nypost.com/2016/07/20/the-long-term-deal-gulf-facing-rangers-kreider-before-hearing/

Only problem with the "without Kreider and Hayes we Are Montreal" is that none of them Are physical at all. Hayes is the definition of soft player.... He has no physical game in him at all, if he has he hasnt showed it yet. He is also slower than a turtle and a horrible skater. He is a worse skater than Stepan was when he came into the league... Stepan has turned into a pretty solid skater now but lacks that high end speed. Hayes really needs to start work on that because if he can get better at that he has some seriously good hands. Zucc, Miller etc Are alot more physical than bigboy Kevin Hayes....
Kreider has speed and size but very rarely uses his size to his advantage when he forecheck or with the puck. When he is going its because he finds space with his speed.

Disagree.
Stepan is NOT "solid" except that he "lacks high end speed". He is adequate, don't push his skating beyond that.

Hayes does have to learn more including use of his size, but at least he has the size based on his natural height, to which a bit more muscle can be added, tho must be careful this is not packed on in such way to slow him down.

as to Kreider "rarely uses his size to his advantage", also disagree

 

[MarkMessyay11]

If Brooks is right, 4 years $5 mil is probably where it will end up. It's a little rich for my liking, but Kreider has all the tools to be a top 6 power forward who can score 30 goals. If he's getting that contract though, he needs to make that jump into the 25-30 goal / 50+ points range next season.

 

[Curufinwe]

He uses it very well when crashing into goalies.

 

[Eric Sachs]

best deal IMO is 8 yrs,
Starts 3.5 adds .4 every year, player has right to buy out at cost of 1m after 5 years, = 5.5 base going forward, last 3 yrs would be 5.9, 6.3 and 6.7.
buy out gives club 1 yr advance notice, and dibs to make new offer if buy out engaged

my favorite bern moments are when he completely disregards the CBA and just institutes his own rules.

why not just have a contract where Kreider will get paid 100M a year but will have no cap charge. If he hits 30 goals a year, NYR will throw him a pizza party and invite all his friends. **** the rules!

 

[WesMcCauley]

Disagree.
Stepan is NOT "solid" except that he "lacks high end speed". He is adequate, don't push his skating beyond that.

Hayes does have to learn more including use of his size, but at least he has the size based on his natural height, to which a bit more muscle can be added, tho must be careful this is not packed on in such way to slow him down.

as to Kreider "rarely uses his size to his advantage", also disagree

Its not possible to get slower than what Hayes is now.

You think Kreider uses his speed and size to his advantage and still only scores 43 points.... If you seriously think that you cant believe he has much more in him than the 40-45 points he puts up? He gotta improve something to produce better? Or is he perfect and just unlucky he doesnt score more than 43 points?

 

[Shootertooter]

This makes me think Shattenkirk for Kreider + is a very real possibility.

Maybe Shattenkirk for Kreider + 1st, and the 1st is given back if by some snowballs chance the Rangers don't extend Shatty.

Why would the Rangers trade an asset like Kreider for a guy who is a UFA after this season? I understand your addition of the first to be given back in the event he doesn't sign but the package is overpayment in the first place.

 

[Shootertooter]

If Brooks is right, 4 years $5 mil is probably where it will end up. It's a little rich for my liking, but Kreider has all the tools to be a top 6 power forward who can score 30 goals. If he's getting that contract though, he needs to make that jump into the 25-30 goal / 50+ points range next season.

I'd like to see 6yrs at 28m with no ntc involved.

 

[Eric Sachs]

I'd like to see 6yrs at 28m with no ntc involved.

so you think Kreider is going to give you 4 years of UFA valued at less than what he thinks his remaining 2 years of RFA are worth?

 

[FoxysExpensiveNYDigs]

my favorite bern moments are when he completely disregards the CBA and just institutes his own rules.

why not just have a contract where Kreider will get paid 100M a year but will have no cap charge. If he hits 30 goals a year, NYR will throw him a pizza party and invite all his friends. **** the rules!

I also love those moments. Buying out player's houses to enable trades, adding random clauses to contracts just in case certain things are allowed under future CBA's, all funny funny stuff. Adds to the bern whimsy I suppose...

So assuming CK is actually going to make it to his arbitration date, it will only be a 1 or 2 year deal right? And it's either at the player value or the club value? Can't remember how all this works when it actually gets to the arbitration.

 

[Eric Sachs]

I also love those moments. Buying out player's houses to enable trades, adding random clauses to contracts just in case certain things are allowed under future CBA's, all funny funny stuff. Adds to the bern whimsy I suppose...

So assuming CK is actually going to make it to his arbitration date, it will only be a 1 or 2 year deal right? And it's either at the player value or the club value? Can't remember how all this works when it actually gets to the arbitration.

Since Kreider elected arbitration, the Rangers can choose the length of 1 or 2 years (it's always the party opposite who elects arbitration who decides on the 1 or 2 year term). Sidenote: if a player only has 1 more year of RFA, the team can only select 1 year. Kreider has 2 remaining years though, so it's almost certain the Rangers have asked for 1 year but unconfirmed. This way, they get another shot next year to go through the same song and dance rather than Kreider being able to just play out until UFA.

It's not at either value. The arbitrator can choose any value he wishes but tends to hover around the midpoint of the two valuations. There are a bunch of things he can consider as evidence, including what comparable players were paid for their RFA years.