Speculation: Chris Johnston "An atom bomb could drop"

[stealth1]

They said these same things about Yzerman and Ovechkin until they won. They also said it about Sundin (although he didn't quite make it happen). I would never give up on a player like Matthews. I don't want to give up on Marner either, I just don't know how the numbers can work and he's the next man up right now.

It's not just about winning. It's also how he performs in the playoffs.

The drop in core four scoring from regular season to playoffs

Posting this fully in part to sharpen it.

Difference between reg season points per game and playoffs points per game from the core five between 2016 and now:

Matthews -0.28

Marner -0.23

Nylander -0.07

Tavares -0.32

**What does this mean exactly?**

-0.1 is very typical

-0.2 is underwhelming

-0.3 is historically bad

90% of all NHL players ever are -0.1

It's been 9 seasons of this. This whole mantra of running it back and maybe one year they will finally break though is crazy. These guys are who they are, they aren't winners and they definitely don't hate to lose.

 

[Menzinger]

There will be no new President to bring in. Pelley will handle the business side and Tre/Pridham will manage the hockey side of things. They are more then capable to do so. Pelley has seen enough over the past couple of seasons and how they ended to make sure he stays out of Tre's way.

They have the funds to change the narrative around the Leafs, they have a coach to help with the change as well. Bringing in the likes of Tanev, OEL, Carlo, Stolarz, Laughton and Lorentz are the start of the vision they are attempting to build. They will continue to add to that and subtract the pieces that do not fit the mold or are "passengers" as some have put it.

Yep. Worth noting that it was only until Shanny that they had the president as a desperate role. I believe previously, like during the Burke days the GM held both titles.

I don't really see a need for one unless you have a successful GM like Sakic who wants to take a step back from doing some of the hands on day to day operational stuff.

I doubt they consider getting one until we get to the post-Tre era. And even then nothing set in stone

 

[Trapper]

Yep. Worth noting that it was only until Shanny that they had the president as a desperate role. I believe previously, like during the Burke days the GM held both titles.

I don't really see a need for one unless you have a successful GM like Sakic who wants to take a step back from doing some of the hands on day to day operational stuff.

I doubt they consider getting one until we get to the post-Tre era. And even then nothing set in stone

It’s quite possible they are going to restructure everything.
From the Leafs to the Jays to the Raptors.
A streamlined organization to follow with new reporting structures.
As you say, for now it will be the Tre, Berube show. Tre hired the coach so they should be in the same page.

 

[WillNy29]

It’s quite possible they are going to restructure everything.
From the Leafs to the Jays to the Raptors.
A streamlined organization to follow with new reporting structures.
As you say, for now it will be the Tre, Berube show. Tre hired the coach so they should be in the same page.

if they really do want to play the dump and chase style game it would be nice if they invested in speed demons that can separate the puck from defensemen (size, speed, good sticks etc) throughout the line up so that we can come in waves like that St Louis Blues team did

 

[BlueForever75]

It's not just about winning. It's also how he performs in the playoffs.

The drop in core four scoring from regular season to playoffs

Posting this fully in part to sharpen it.

Difference between reg season points per game and playoffs points per game from the core five between 2016 and now:

Matthews -0.28

Marner -0.23

Nylander -0.07

Tavares -0.32

**What does this mean exactly?**

-0.1 is very typical

-0.2 is underwhelming

-0.3 is historically bad

90% of all NHL players ever are -0.1

It's been 9 seasons of this. This whole mantra of running it back and maybe one year they will finally break though is crazy. These guys are who they are, they aren't winners and they definitely don't hate to lose.

This means absolutely nothing. Lets look back historically:

Steve Yzerman - GP 196 PTS 184
Brendan Shannahan - GP 184 PTS 134
Pavel Datsyuk - GP 158 PTS 107

Alex Ovechkin GP 161 PTS 147

Ron Francis GP 171 PTS 143

Joe Thornton GP 187 PTS 134

Henri Richard GP 180 PTS 129

Patrice Bergeron GP 170 PTS 128

Luc Robitaille GP 161 PTS 126

Dave Andrychuk GP 162 PTS 98

Red Kelly GP 168 PTS 92

And the list can go on and on. In the playoffs you can have many players that outright lead their teams in scoring if not the league in playoff scoring. It doesnt mean they win the cup or are successful as a team in the playoffs. How many Cups has Gretzky lost??? 2 of 6, but lead playoffs in scoring all 6. Didn't McDavid just do that again last season? Lead playoffs in scoring but lose to Florida!!!

Yes it is nice to score at your point a game pace in the playoffs. But lots of hall of famers listed above and there are more.... didnt duplicate the regular season form in the playoffs. But they are still hall of famers and still won cups with their teams. Its a team game. A game of opportunity. A game of bounces and deflections or blocks. Any team can win a cup with the right system and mentality without scoring in bunches. New Jersey has proven this, Boston has as well. Crap Florida and Vegas have. Its not about scoring. Get over it people.

 

[mydnyte]

is getting the final four "a choke"? i mean inherently 31 teams "choke" every year. Final four is a legitimate stanley cup contender...choke seems quite hyperbolic in this sense.

when 1 division is far greater than the other, and then you constantly get swept by whoever comes out of the Atlantic, Yea, thats a choke!

 

[mydnyte]

Chokers. They just manage to swallow a little more food before it kills them than us. 2 wrongs don’t make a right. What are the Canes doing differently each year or are they just running it back?

they just keep running it back and do minimal at the deadline ...they tried this year and it blew up in their face big time.

 

[seventieslord]

1. Signed Nylander to a max deal which will be team friendly in a couple of years compared to other salaries

What?? The guy is 29. He's paid like a top 10 player in the NHL but he's probably about the 30th best player. I doubt that even in 7 years his salary will fall out of the top 30 but his level of play certainly will have fallen out of the top 30 by then.

 

[stealth1]

This means absolutely nothing. Lets look back historically:

Steve Yzerman - GP 196 PTS 184
Brendan Shannahan - GP 184 PTS 134
Pavel Datsyuk - GP 158 PTS 107

Alex Ovechkin GP 161 PTS 147

Ron Francis GP 171 PTS 143

Joe Thornton GP 187 PTS 134

Henri Richard GP 180 PTS 129

Patrice Bergeron GP 170 PTS 128

Luc Robitaille GP 161 PTS 126

Dave Andrychuk GP 162 PTS 98

Red Kelly GP 168 PTS 92

And the list can go on and on. In the playoffs you can have many players that outright lead their teams in scoring if not the league in playoff scoring. It doesnt mean they win the cup or are successful as a team in the playoffs. How many Cups has Gretzky lost??? 2 of 6, but lead playoffs in scoring all 6. Didn't McDavid just do that again last season? Lead playoffs in scoring but lose to Florida!!!

Yes it is nice to score at your point a game pace in the playoffs. But lots of hall of famers listed above and there are more.... didnt duplicate the regular season form in the playoffs. But they are still hall of famers and still won cups with their teams. Its a team game. A game of opportunity. A game of bounces and deflections or blocks. Any team can win a cup with the right system and mentality without scoring in bunches. New Jersey has proven this, Boston has as well. Crap Florida and Vegas have. Its not about scoring. Get over it people.

Your thesis is all wrong. Going back to 2016 cup winners had at least 3 players in the top 5 in scoring. In just about every case it's each teams top players.

 

[Al14]

Matthews for Roman Polak.

Gud trade.

Add Gudas and done deal.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

At this point, I would take Jeff Finger over Morgan Rielly. Lol

No you wouldn't

 

[Kazparov]

You guys are nuts if you think they're going to trade 34 away.

 

[tp71]

when 1 division is far greater than the other, and then you constantly get swept by whoever comes out of the Atlantic, Yea, thats a choke!

8 wins within a stanley cup is not a choke. What was the atlantic like in 2009 when the streak started? Wasnt weak then.

 

[stealth1]

You guys are nuts if you think they're going to trade 34 away.

We all know they won't trade Matthews. He is also part of the problem

 

[Nineteen67]

is we are CHOKERS what would you call the Canes and 14 straight losses when it matters most.

They’re built very similar to the Leafs which is why I’ve often picked the two teams as the least likely to come out of the east.

 

[Trapper]

They’re built very similar to the Leafs which is why I’ve often picked the two teams as the least likely to come out of the east.

The Canes are the Metro Leafs.

 

[Nineteen67]

You guys are nuts if you think they're going to trade 34 away.

We have to assume he wasn’t injured this year despite his claim so why wouldn’t he be on the table. From his birth to this moment in time there’s been nothing to indicate that he can lead a team to a Cup. Everything suggest he can’t.
If I’m the GM I keep him, yet plan around McDavid, and if he’s off the table, I move Matthews.

 

[Kazparov]

We have to assume he wasn’t injured this year despite his claim so why wouldn’t he be on the table. From his birth to this moment in time there’s been nothing to indicate that he can lead a team to a Cup. Everything suggest he can’t.
If I’m the GM I keep him, yet plan around McDavid, and if he’s off the table, I move Matthews.

I'm not making an argument to keep him (or trade him for that matter.)

I'm making a statement about Leafs management.

 

[Nineteen67]

I'm not making an argument to keep him (or trade him for that matter.)

I'm making a statement about Leafs management.

Before they do anything they’d better talk to McDavid’s camp and see if they can land him. If they cant, you trade Matthews as soon as you can. We’re stuck with him for another year regardless.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I don't think a atom bomb needs to drop because that would mean trading Matthews and Nylander and that doesn't need to happen.

But changes certainly need to be made especially up front especially up front.

I could see an off season looking something like this.

To Vancouver Morgan Rielly

To Toronto Conor Garland+

I don't want to see Rielly traded but part of me thinks it has a decent chance of happening and if it does I could maybe see him going home.

Conor Garland can fill the hole in the top 6 left by Marner and this deal saves just over 2.5 million.

To Toronto Mason Marchment

To Dallas Nick Robertson and Florida 2025 2nd.

Dallas has 5 players to sign, they have less then 6 million to do it, they have to move money, they get a 2nd round pick and Nick Robertson gets to go play with his brother.

Leafs get a big LW that can play on the 2nd line, get to the inside of the ice and score goals.

You have now acqired 2 top 6 wingers for significantly less then you paid Mitch Marner because remember you saved money on the Garland trade.

So now you have to go get a replacement D because you have a giant hole on defense so you go out and you sign AAron Ekblad.

6 years 45.5 million or 7.5 per year.

IF you can move Jarnkrok and Kampf and I do think at least 1 of them if not both are gone.

Then you have the money to take a run at Nelson.

New Roster

Knies Matthews Domi!Garland

Marchment-Tavares-Nylander

McMann Nelson Domi/Garland

? Laughton?

Ekblad Carlo

McCabe Tanev

OEL Benoit

Stolarz

Woll

Admittedly there are a couple issues on the 4th line but I think the top 9 looks fairly good and I think it's fairly realistic.

None of the players I brought in are as good as Mitch but I think the forward group is much deeper and I think you are going to see something like that up front, because if you saw the press conference, a step back is NOT an option.

And the ONLY way that's possible is if you can get 2 or 3 top 6 forwards in here.

That's why IF they move Rie a forward is the ideal return

 

[namttebih]

I don't think a atom bomb needs to drop because that would mean trading Matthews and Nylander and that doesn't need to happen.

But changes certainly need to be made especially up front especially up front.

I could see an off season looking something like this.

To Vancouver Morgan Rielly

To Toronto Conor Garland+

I don't want to see Rielly traded but part of me thinks it has a decent chance of happening and if it does I could maybe see him going home.

Conor Garland can fill the hole in the top 6 left by Marner and this deal saves just over 2.5 million.

To Toronto Mason Marchment

To Dallas Nick Robertson and Florida 2025 2nd.

Dallas has 5 players to sign, they have less then 6 million to do it, they have to move money, they get a 2nd round pick and Nick Robertson gets to go play with his brother.

Leafs get a big LW that can play on the 2nd line, get to the inside of the ice and score goals.

You have now acqired 2 top 6 wingers for significantly less then you paid Mitch Marner because remember you saved money on the Garland trade.

So now you have to go get a replacement D because you have a giant hole on defense so you go out and you sign AAron Ekblad.

6 years 45.5 million or 7.5 per year.

IF you can move Jarnkrok and Kampf and I do think at least 1 of them if not both are gone.

Then you have the money to take a run at Nelson.

New Roster

Knies Matthews Domi!Garland

Marchment-Tavares-Nylander

McMann Nelson Domi/Garland

? Laughton?

Ekblad Carlo

McCabe Tanev

OEL Benoit

Stolarz

Woll

Admittedly there are a couple issues on the 4th line but I think the top 9 looks fairly good and I think it's fairly realistic.

None of the players I brought in are as good as Mitch but I think the forward group is much deeper and I think you are going to see something like that up front, because if you saw the press conference, a step back is NOT an option.

And the ONLY way that's possible is if you can get 2 or 3 top 6 forwards in here.

That's why IF they move Rie a forward is the ideal return

Why does Dallas make that trade? It's essentially a 3rd and a guy who can't make a playoff roster who doesn't go as deep as their team. If it's to reunite brothers, I don't think that they gms care that much about things like that.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Why does Dallas make that trade? It's essentially a 3rd and a guy who can't make a playoff roster who doesn't go as deep as their team. If it's to reunite brothers, I don't think that they gms care that much about things like that.

It's more about clearing money so that they can sign enough players.

It doesn't need to be Robertson tou can replace him.

I just don't see him coming back.

 

[Budz]

When I look at the team and the potential players that need to go. Here are my final thoughts:

Matthews -(Stay)

He passed the eye test for me. Obviously hurt this year. Franchise centre and a no trade. I personally and have always believed that pairing MnM together was always a mistake. Matthews needs to play with heavier players. Aside from puck luck and maybe 2/3 plays. I thought Matthews was decent this playoff. I hope he heals up. It’s also a trade you are unlikely to win.

Marner -(Let walk)

From the TO area, but can’t handle the market. Too perimeter, needs time and space to be effective, and no signs of any physicality. Mentally fragile. Amazing regular season player who helps you get into the dance. NOT worth the ask and helps reset forward depth.

Nylander (Stay)

Can’t change everything. Not the time to visit Nylander. Great player, with plenty of warts.

JT (Sign)

I just don’t see how we get a 2C and 3C in this UFA class. I do hope management squeezes his head and wallet. I also believe that he CANNOT be your 2C on a cup team. I also hate Willy stuck on his line. He has to be a 3C or middle six LW. Target contract is realistically 5.5-6 million AAV.

Kampf (Trade)

Not a Chief player. Gotta go. Slide Laughton into 4C. Lack of physicality.

Jarnkrok (Trade/Release)

Brings little to nothing, need to churn the bottom of the roster. Again, lack of physicality.

Rielly (Convince to waive NMC -trade)

It’s time. I don’t think he has negative trade value, but the return will not be great. We need a proper puck moving PP QB. Prone to terrible pinches and positional play. Cap dollars are better spent elsewhere.

Lorentz/Holmberg (Re sign)

Bring back on reasonable deals

Robertson (RFA - Trade)

Too light in the pants. On his ass too much. Need more than just “he sure does try” Let him go and grab a pick.

I won’t at this time project replacements, but with the above changes this what the roster would look like.

Knies Matthews Domi
McMann 2C Nylander
3LW Tavares Cowan (I give him a shot)
Lorentz Laughton Holmberg

McCabe Tanev
OEL 2RD
Benoit Carlo
Myers

Targets:
2nd line Centre
Middle Pair RW or LW ( Could move Domi)
Middle pair RD.

As July 1 gets closer, I will share thoughts on potential targets.