I would put Malcolm Spence, Jackson Smith, Cole Reschny, and Keaton Verhoeff in the big commits category (probably bigger than Ivankovic actually, since all of those guys will definitely be first-rounders this year, or next year in Verhoeff's case).
I figure Misa is most likely to go - he's already got three years in the OHL under his belt, won a Memorial Cup, put up goofy numbers this year. He could go to Penn State for a year, play with his brother, and if he tears it up, probably burn a year on his entry-level deal after the college season ends.
Really wouldn't be surprised if the majority of the CHL prospects projected to go in the first, or thereabouts go south, actually. Just seems like its following in the footsteps of USNTDP/USHL-to-NCAA-for-a-year-or-two as the en vogue route now, and there aren't many (if any) players expected to immediately jump to the NHL next season, not even Schaefer.
I would expect an announcement about McKenna soon. I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't go (Michigan, right?).