CHL Can Now Play NCAA - Changes Everything

[NTDP]

Couple more Americans/USHL players signing on with OHL clubs:

Good get for the Bulldogs, Cooper Dennis is a pretty good player. Saw him at the USA Hockey National Select Camps in Amherst last year.

 

[Torts]

It really feels like the NHL, NCAA, Hockey Canada and USA Hockey should've sent a bit more time hammering out details and guidelines before dropping this bomb on minor hockey. What a shitshow.

But my question, aside from the talent influx, how does this change the NCAA, and what will the NHL do to influence the NCAA? I'm talking perhaps an expanded schedule, equipment changes (tossing the full cages), what happens with physical guys and fighters, etc? The NHL and NCAA game are two very different beasts, and if so many kids are hitting NCAA ice now, I'm sure the NHL will want a bit more developmental/rules input here.

Probably nothing...

 

[Kingpin794]

 

[dr1234]

Great signing. Steel were rough last year but the potential for a top 64 pick is still there imo.

 

[Corso]

First shoe to drop soon....next one will be changes to the draft.....

 

[Kingpin794]

First shoe to drop soon....next one will be changes to the draft.....

Surely that will have an effect on NCAA recruitment too though right? Some guys will just bypass the NCAA for a chance to make the AHL. Not all but might split that high end tier between NCAA and AHL.

 

[Corso]

Surely that will have an effect on NCAA recruitment too though right? Some guys will just bypass the NCAA for a chance to make the AHL. Not all but might split that high end tier between NCAA and AHL.

Yes...think of both Martone and Misa....now knowing they can spend time in the AHL as opposed to being sent back to their respective OHL clubs. At the risk of being attacked and called a "fake insider" (even though I said months ago that this was being discussed) let me just say that not all players will sign an ELC to play in the AHL (nor should they) and more than a few will spend a year or two in the NCAA; I really believe, however, that the very elite will sign and play in the AHL.

 

[Oak]

Re the transfer portal - the players are just as bad, if not worse, than the coaches with abusing it. The coach's job is to win, not coddle young adults and be afraid to hurt their feelings.

I agree that the transfer portal is a two way street and both parties are taking advantage of it, no specific blame. My point was that the portal itself caused a lot of the mayhem we have been seeing.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Cayden Lindstrom confirms he will be at Michigan State in the fall

 

[SergeConstantin]

 

[Bonin21]

So CHL gets to have fun announcing 16 and 17 years old coming in and NCAA gets to announce all the best 18 and 19 years old coming over (plus the best 17 year old in the world coming soon).

 

[Hanji]

If things don't change, it looks as if the USHL is the main loser here.

Me thinks the CHL will receive an influx of talent but only at U18, it will then become the main feeder league for the NCAA.

 

[2Mototik2]

So CHL gets to have fun announcing 16 and 17 years old coming in and NCAA gets to announce all the best 18 and 19 years old coming over (plus the best 17 year old in the world coming soon).

That appears to be the case right now, but the general vibe from individual CHL team management has been pretty bullish about the expanded pool of younger players when talking about these recent signings, though it could be argued that it's the company line.

I'll maintain that not every CHL players is going to leave for the NCAA at 18 but we'll have to see what happens after the dust settles following this first off-season and then following the first season at the NCAA level for former CHL players.

I also have a suspicion that not all this first wave of CHL players will end the season in the NCAA or be back for a second year.

 

[Bonin21]

though it could be argued that it's the company line.

lmao ya think?

 

[TheBeastCoast]

If things don't change, it looks as if the USHL is the main loser here.

Me thinks the CHL will receive an influx of talent but only at U18, it will then become the main feeder league for the NCAA.

I think the CHL will be fine in the end...it will just be a pretty massive change in that when you draft a top end talent the expectation of having them for anywhere from 2-4 seasons shifts to like...1-3 seasons. It does open up a much wider talent pool likely willing to enter the league that never would have considered it before. Overall talent level likely gets higher while the average age probably lowers. Think you are correct about the USHL getting just hammered by this.

 

[Kingpin794]

I think the CHL will be fine in the end...it will just be a pretty massive change in that when you draft a top end talent the expectation of having them for anywhere from 2-4 seasons shifts to like...1-3 seasons. It does open up a much wider talent pool likely willing to enter the league that never would have considered it before. Overall talent level likely gets higher while the average age probably lowers. Think you are correct about the USHL getting just hammered by this.

I hate this talking point. That's not even the case for the USHL which has been losing 18-20 year olds forever. The average age of teams is not going to change in any meaningful way.

 

[Bonin21]

Overall talent level likely gets higher while the average age probably lowers.

Most of us have stated it but overall talent level, if meaning quality of hockey overall, will go down.

A Gavin Mckenna turning 18, a Lindstrom turning 20, you can go on all day. The 17 year olds and American 18 year olds will not cancel that out.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

If things don't change, it looks as if the USHL is the main loser here.

Me thinks the CHL will receive an influx of talent but only at U18, it will then become the main feeder league for the NCAA.

Tons of mid tier U19 and U20 guys who've come out of minor hockey, HS, prep will need to go somewhere to play junior before heading to the NCAA: those guys previously went to the USHL and NAHL. The CHL can get those US kids who would have never played major junior in the past.

Most NCAA players don't start their NCAA careers in their 18 year old season. Cooper Simpson is insanely talented but obviously needs more refinement in junior before getting to Grand Forks, he's the type that the Dub needs to get as well.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Most of us have stated it but overall talent level, if meaning quality of hockey overall, will go down.

I am talking about the talent of the individual players. They will be raw and less developed, but more talented. There is a long list of guys that played NCAA hockey in the past that could have played 2-3 seasons in the CHL. Going forward there is no reason for these players to not play CHL hockey before heading to college. Especially the Canadians.

 

[Bonin21]

I am talking about the talent of the individual players. They will be raw and less developed, but more talented. There is a long list of guys that played NCAA hockey in the past that could have played 2-3 seasons in the CHL. Going forward there is no reason for these players to not play CHL hockey before heading to college. Especially the Canadians.

That seems fair

Raw talent of the average 17 year old in the league: UP
Raw talent of the average 18 year old in the league: UP
Raw talent of the average 19 year old in the league: = or slightly DOWN (we'll see over time)
Raw talent of the average 20 year old in the league: DOWN (heading to NCAA)

 

[WarriorofTime]

If things don't change, it looks as if the USHL is the main loser here.

BCHL. Brokeaway from Hockey Canada to market selves as the pre-eminent Canadian destination for the NCAA prospects, with a lot of fluidity and movement between USHL-BCHL. All of their gripes were essentially about how Hockey Canada would approve transfers to the USHL, but domestic players not in the BC region were largely confined to their local Junior A association. So by being a breakaway, they could get Canadian 17 year old players that were opting for the NCAA route without being confined to these various restrictions. That looks to have lasted all of a couple years at most. Now what even is it? May have to crawl back to being a Hockey Canada sanctioned Junior A league again.

USHL will lose some talent and the days of the elite Canadian tender are over, but at the end of the day, it's the Tier I USA Junior Hockey League. That still fills an important "role" in the hockey development pyramid. Probably should be more flexible about giving younger players a chance, something the CHL leagues have always done, and not being so rigidly post-high school of a league.

The other huge "loser" is USports (granted not one that will get much attention paid to it given the hockey pyramid), which was a CHL Senior League with a good level of play from players that aged out of junior but were opting for education due to the NCAA restriction. Now presumably all the Pro Hockey Rejects will go play in the NCAA.

 

[2Mototik2]

Tons of mid tier U19 and U20 guys who've come out of minor hockey, HS, prep will need to go somewhere to play junior before headed to the NCAA: those guys previously went to the USHL and NAHL. The CHL can get those US kids who would have never played major junior in the past.

Most NCAA players don't start their NCAA careers in their 18 year old season. Cooper Simpson is insanely talented but obviously needs more refinement in junior before getting to Grand Forks, he's the type that the Dub needs to get as well.

In addition to the deeper younger pool, there are also going to be the 18-20 year old players who were never not on the CHL path signing ELC's and then there are others who do want to go NCAA but their NCAA team doesn't want/have space for them right away (like Matteo Michels this year for example). Then I also think there is a third group of players who either don't want to go NCAA or are in no rush to leave junior hockey.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

That seems fair

Raw talent of the average 17 year old in the league: UP
Raw talent of the average 18 year old in the league: UP
Raw talent of the average 19 year old in the league: = or slightly DOWN (we'll see over time)
Raw talent of the average 20 year old in the league: DOWN (heading to NCAA)

I would say this is about right. I think the biggest change is how this can impact what has been the typical build/rebuild cycle in the CHL. Having a competent group running your team is going to be more important then ever because the classic blow it up rebuild may look a bit different.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I hate this talking point. That's not even the case for the USHL which has been losing 18-20 year olds forever. The average age of teams is not going to change in any meaningful way.

The USHL 18-20 year olds are largely undrafted or late drafted guys. Many weren't playing Junior Hockey full time until they were 18 and were still in MN HS/Prep School before then.

The highest end Americans go NTDP and are out by 18 (some lower end/trending bust NTDP players stick around, before a few years ago, some would go play CHL, which will probably start happening again in the interim of NTDP and college).

Then there were only a couple of very high end tenders per note, which isn't going to effect averages.

Don't think anyone doubts low-end 18-20 year olds will hang around CHL all the same.

 

[BKarchitect]

Are the AHL and ECHL losers? I guess most of these 20 year-olds would be ECHL contracts at best and a lot U Sports but does this not kind of reduce the tap of minor pro signings a bit?

Does the AHL lose out on some higher end prospects, at least initially, who would rather be in college for a gap year or two, and then take their chances in the pros?