CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[bigdog16]

I have been hearing it since last summer and this rule change has only intensified that talk.
What top end kids are we referring to? Are we saying only those who will be invited to the NTDP? Or are we talking about the top 40 or so?
I do expect some top end kids to jump to the Q and honestly why wouldn't they?

Hearing it where, I'm genuinely curious? I haven't heard a peep about it until you said something on HFBoards. That seems like a topic that would be widely discussed at the player development camps and I heard nothing.

Say all the top end kids do choose to go NTDP. The kids who are cut, for the most part, are not world beaters. They aren't going to be top 6, PP guys at the CHL level (take Bent for example). They are better off developing where they can get a lot of touches.

 

[Corso]

Hearing it where, I'm genuinely curious? I haven't heard a peep about it until you said something on HFBoards. That seems like a topic that would be widely discussed at the player development camps and I heard nothing.

Say all the top end kids do choose to go NTDP. The kids who are cut, for the most part, are not world beaters. They aren't going to be top 6, PP guys at the CHL level (take Bent for example). They are better off developing where they can get a lot of touches.

Was talked about most recently at the Youth Cup in Rochester....that is also where I heard about USA Hockey's plan with the USHL to attempt to form a super U-16 league as a funnel to the U (don't think it will work myself).

I don't disagree with you about the development angle, players should play where they can actually play but it's not like the CHL would hurt their development either. Not all 16-year-old are elite world beaters destined for a first-round pick and NHL stardom.

 

[jtechkid]

Also, what about kids drafted by Omaha and / or ushl teams that don’t play young kids they will be going to CHL because that’s an option now . Omaha is a complete mess and USHL use to be a monopoly but that game is over so you will lose kids simply because they don’t want to play for some USHL teams . I think most kids thinking will be lets go to the top league and if i do well there then the college’s can’t same im playing in inferior league . That has been same argument on kids playing in the ushl over bchl last 3-4 years so same thing going happen to Ushl going forward . This has been proven because college’s are taking 2004 chl over ushl - bchl older kids . USHL taking a big step back how big is the question. I think people will be shocked next september .

 

[bigdog16]

Also, what about kids drafted by Omaha and / or ushl teams that don’t play young kids they will be going to CHL because that’s an option now . Omaha is a complete mess and USHL use to be a monopoly but that game is over so you will lose kids simply because they don’t want to play for some USHL teams . I think most kids thinking will be lets go to the top league and if i do well there then the college’s can’t same im playing in inferior league . That has been same argument on kids playing in the ushl over bchl last 3-4 years so same thing going happen to Ushl going forward . This has been proven because college’s are taking 2004 chl over ushl - bchl older kids . USHL taking a big step back how big is the question. I think people will be shocked next september .

This will be the same case with teams like Baie-Comeau, Cape Breton, North Bay and Sudbury. Kids don't want to play there either.

 

[Kingpin794]

This will be the same case with teams like Baie-Comeau, Cape Breton, North Bay and Sudbury. Kids don't want to play there either.

Sudbury and North Bay aren't hurting that bad for recruiting. That's old stereotypes about them. They do fine now. Can't speak for the Q teams but as I said earlier in the thread, just give it some time.

 

[Corso]

Sudbury and North Bay aren't hurting that bad for recruiting. That's old stereotypes about them. They do fine now. Can't speak for the Q teams but as I said earlier in the thread, just give it some time.

I imagine the Shorsy show will help Sudbury with recruiting.....wonder if the girls really are that hot in Sudbury? Road trip to Northern Ontario maybe

Good thing the wife has no interest in hockey boards

 

[WarriorofTime]

Sudbury and North Bay aren't hurting that bad for recruiting. That's old stereotypes about them. They do fine now. Can't speak for the Q teams but as I said earlier in the thread, just give it some time.

I imagine Musty would have bounced for NCAA if the option had been around one season earlier. He tried to get out of Sudbury but they just held him until he came back.

 

[Kingpin794]

I imagine Musty would have bounced for NCAA if the option had been around one season earlier. He tried to get out of Sudbury but they just held him until he came back.

Well you have a point on Sudbury. That had slipped my mind for some reason. North Bay did get Ryder Cali as an NCAA guy recently.

 

[Wieters]

Unless the U17 team disbands, which won't happen next season, I have an extremely hard time seeing the likes of Pelosi, Fitzhenry, Scuderi, Meyer, Sears, etc. go to the CHL next year. I am hearing the same from inside the rinks also.

You are hanging your hat on Will Bent, a player who was cut from NTDP. Keep that in mind.

I heard all three of Sears/Meyer/Pandolfo explicitly say recently that their goal is to play for the NTDP. They were asked by a local reporter and said so on camera, so I'm not just claiming unnamed sources here.

Those three are an interesting test case for this idea that some kids will turn down the NTDP if they're not happy with their projected role, because there is a reality where Pelosi/Fitzhenry/Scuderi/Daley occupy the top line/PP1 spots. But would even that cause any of the Junior Eagles/Rivers kids to go to the CHL? If not, then what are we really talking about here? Which kind of kid is going to turn down the NTDP? They actively want to be part of the NTDP and going to the CHL isn't a substitute for that.

 

[Oak]

U -18 use to be really great hockey i think what 5-10 years ago . Prep hockey as everybody knows use to be unbelievable hockey . U -16 was still great hockey but has gotten watered down because ntdp and ushl tenders . U -18 right now is almost unplayable if you want play div 1 hockey in the future . Prep hockey after age 16 is unplayable if you want play div 1 hockey in the future . U -16 is just about to blow up too in my view from ntdp , ushl , chl kids plus i really think BCHL just gets really younger and becomes feeding ground for Mostly CHL and maybe ushl . Shattick is also completely done i think at u -16-18 too in the future . The top kids are going chase their dreams and they are leaving home now at age 16 . I don’t care about last year or this year but the trend has been down for u -18-16 and prep but new rule will completely destroy it in my view .

I disagree. You can still graduate high school from Prep and then go USHL or CHL. You might see kids leave after junior year but even so one extra year in Prep so they can graduate HS will not prevent kids from going D1. Colleges are still recruiting out of Prep hockey.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I heard all three of Sears/Meyer/Pandolfo explicitly say recently that their goal is to play for the NTDP. They were asked by a local reporter and said so on camera, so I'm not just claiming unnamed sources here.

Those three are an interesting test case for this idea that some kids will turn down the NTDP if they're not happy with their projected role, because there is a reality where Pelosi/Fitzhenry/Scuderi/Daley occupy the top line/PP1 spots. But would even that cause any of the Junior Eagles/Rivers kids to go to the CHL? If not, then what are we really talking about here? Which kind of kid is going to turn down the NTDP? They actively want to be part of the NTDP and going to the CHL isn't a substitute for that.

Maybe a kid leaves after a year if they're disgruntled about their ice time/situation. But they could also just jump straight to NCAA like Cullen Potter.

 

[Corso]

I heard all three of Sears/Meyer/Pandolfo explicitly say recently that their goal is to play for the NTDP. They were asked by a local reporter and said so on camera, so I'm not just claiming unnamed sources here.

Those three are an interesting test case for this idea that some kids will turn down the NTDP if they're not happy with their projected role, because there is a reality where Pelosi/Fitzhenry/Scuderi/Daley occupy the top line/PP1 spots. But would even that cause any of the Junior Eagles/Rivers kids to go to the CHL? If not, then what are we really talking about here? Which kind of kid is going to turn down the NTDP? They actively want to be part of the NTDP and going to the CHL isn't a substitute for that.

Meyer, Davis, Covelluzzi, Boguniecki, Pandolfo, Sears, Berard, Gualberto and Minella are among the top American prospects in the QMJHL catch basin. Not all will make or be invited to the NTDP. Where will they play when they are 16 and 17? Some will indeed play Prep during their 16 year old season but where will they go after that? I'm saying that the Q is going to be a bigger draw than the USHL. You can disagree but time will tell.

 

[bigdog16]

I heard all three of Sears/Meyer/Pandolfo explicitly say recently that their goal is to play for the NTDP. They were asked by a local reporter and said so on camera, so I'm not just claiming unnamed sources here.

Those three are an interesting test case for this idea that some kids will turn down the NTDP if they're not happy with their projected role, because there is a reality where Pelosi/Fitzhenry/Scuderi/Daley occupy the top line/PP1 spots. But would even that cause any of the Junior Eagles/Rivers kids to go to the CHL? If not, then what are we really talking about here? Which kind of kid is going to turn down the NTDP? They actively want to be part of the NTDP and going to the CHL isn't a substitute for that.

Daley is a kid I could see going CHL since that is the route his dad took. Plays with GTHL oriented teams in the spring/summer. Didn’t attend the USA festival in the summer. Wouldn’t surprise me if his mind was already made up long ago.

 

[Corso]

Daley is a kid I could see going CHL since that is the route his dad took. Plays with GTHL oriented teams in the spring/summer. Didn’t attend the USA festival in the summer. Wouldn’t surprise me if his mind was already made up long ago.

I'd say that is a very real possibility. Rumor is that he signed an AP agreement with the Soo Eagles of the NOJHL, a team that affiliates closely with the OHL.

 

[Wieters]

Meyer, Davis, Covelluzzi, Boguniecki, Pandolfo, Sears, Berard, Gualberto and Minella are among the top American prospects in the QMJHL catch basin. Not all will make or be invited to the NTDP. Where will they play when they are 16 and 17? Some will indeed play Prep during their 16 year old season but where will they go after that? I'm saying that the Q is going to be a bigger draw than the USHL. You can disagree but time will tell.

I don't disagree with that. Or at least, I don't think that's outside of the realm of possibility. Are there people in here who do? Maybe they don't think it's going to happen en masse or that's it's unlikely, but it seems like a reasonable thing to suggest given the rule change. Logically, it makes plenty of sense that some kids who would have gone to the USHL before will now choose the CHL because they're not closing themselves off from college anymore.

I'm not pushing back against that. I'm pushing back against your other, more outlandish claims. That the NTDP will cease to exist in some forms. That even kids who make the NTDP will turn down the invite if they aren't happy with their projected roles. That kids who choose the CHL over the USHL now specifically because they can go to the NCAA will paradoxically not go to the NCAA when they are eligible.

Seems like you're either arguing against strawman arguments by misrepresenting what people are saying or else just changing the goalposts as to what you're saying.

 

[Corso]

I don't disagree with that. Or at least, I don't think that's outside of the realm of possibility. Are there people in here who do? Maybe they don't think it's going to happen en masse or that's it's unlikely, but it seems like a reasonable thing to suggest given the rule change. Logically, it makes plenty of sense that some kids who would have gone to the USHL before will now choose the CHL because they're not closing themselves off from college anymore.

I'm not pushing back against that. I'm pushing back against your other, more outlandish claims. That the NTDP will cease to exist in some forms. That even kids who make the NTDP will turn down the invite if they aren't happy with their projected roles. That kids who choose the CHL over the USHL now specifically because they can go to the NCAA will paradoxically not go to the NCAA when they are eligible.

Seems like you're either arguing against strawman arguments by misrepresenting what people are saying or else just changing the goalposts as to what you're saying.

I believe it is you who are misinterpreting or misreading what I've stated.

I never ever claimed that the NTDP will cease to exist. What I said was that there has been talk (among certain coaches I know at the youth level, and agents that I am close with) that USA Hockey is considering dropping down to one team. As of now, that is what it is, just talk or discussion. It would not shock me if it were, however, to happen within the next few years.

What another poster said, who also happens to be close to the youth hockey scene, is that some players may opt out of the NTDP as opposed to being a bottom pairing D or six forward with little to no PP time. That could be a possibility no?

I have said REPEATEDLY that most U.S. born prospects who choose the CHL will (at least initially anyway) still go the college route. My worry, as I've said REPEATEDLY, is that some of the very elite ones may forgo the NCAA in favor of the CHL/AHL - ELC to the NHL path. That also is a very real possibility no?

 

[WarriorofTime]

I believe it is you who are misinterpreting or misreading what I've stated.

I never ever claimed that the NTDP will cease to exist. What I said was that there has been talk (among certain coaches I know at the youth level, and agents that I am close with) that USA Hockey is considering dropping down to one team.

There is no reason to do that. Why would they want to half their player pool directly from the most direct feeder into their U20 national team (which has basically become Canada's equal the last 15 years or so) and that has a good track record of good future NHL players stopping through during their aged 16 and 17 seasons, and not have to leave the country to do so?

As of now, that is what it is, just talk or discussion. It would not shock me if it were, however, to happen within the next few years.

Hedge to account for that this guy doesn't know what he's talking about.

What another poster said, who also happens to be close to the youth hockey scene, is that some players may opt out of the NTDP as opposed to being a bottom pairing D or six forward with little to no PP time. That could be a possibility no?

That's always been a possibility... they'll give the spot to someone else... do you think they're in danger of running shorthanded rosters if a couple kids decide to go play CHL?

I have said REPEATEDLY that most U.S. born prospects who choose the CHL will (at least initially anyway) still go the college route. My worry, as I've said REPEATEDLY, is that some of the very elite ones may forgo the NCAA in favor of the CHL/AHL - ELC to the NHL path. That also is a very real possibility no?

It's also a very real possibility that some high end CHL kids will go play in the NCAA prior to their junior eligibility expiring. Something this guy routinely dismisses out of hand. Apparently the "possibility" only goes one way.

There really ought to be a rule against posters posing as "insiders" when they are just speculating.