Yeah makes sense. What a huge win for the most desirable CHL teams. They can throw relatively low draft capital at good American players and have a good chance to bring them in while most of their competitors won’t be able to draft players at all if they’re too risky to bring in.
There is no doubt we will see more Americans, considering just last year there was the lowest amount of Americans in the CHL in the past 21 years, and a 55% drop in Americans since 2015. I'm still not convinced many 16 year old Americans make the jump though.
Unless all these leagues decide to play and roster a bunch of U16 players en masse then I dont see this happening. You still need a U16-U18 minor hockey path for these kids to play and develop in before junior. The kids who are too good for AAA/Prep dont stay there anyway and its been that way for a while.
No. The powerhouse teams won't able to hoard American players like they use to anymore. No more getting a high end player in rounds 7, 8, and beyond. These drafts are going to be near BPA from now on. Now you still need to run your franchise in a respectable way and not be a total clown show, but historically ignored teams will be able to get these NCAA types now.
Agree. A decade+ ago it was super common for many of the NTDP to go CHL instead of college. Some of that was late birthday stuff because most U.S. schooling system have cutoffs more in line with the nhl draft than birth year (Kane and M. Tkachuk were both still in high school when they went to London) but also just the perceptions. I think we’ll see numbers more resembling what it looked like back then. Not necessarily high end NTDP kids who probably still go ncaa (the ones who aren’t ready for ncaa likely go for a stopgap in CHL over USHL though).
Only really makes sense if kids view CHL as *mandatory* in order to play NCAA if they don’t make the NTDP, which *could* happen. In that case they’d have to just accept their lot wherever they go like Canadian kids did thirty years ago. However, there remains a high possibility that the USHL doesn’t spontaneously combust and there’s likely still enough older domestic talent to keep it competitive, especially with all the kids not high on the radar at 15 that emerge in their later teen years, which if you look through active American nhl players that weren’t ex NTDP is very common.
None of those decisions on where to play are going to be from the lens of "*mandatory* in order to play NCAA if they don’t make the NTDP". Its going to be "what's best for my development?". For a lot of the higher end guys, the CHL is going to be a better option for exposure and playing time against better junior aged players than the USHL. CHL teams know this and will have little to no incentive to pass on these players. If they want to play in the CHL, they'll play for us. And most kids are going to be ok with that. The whole idea before was "I better be damn sure I'm going to a strong program if I'm burning my NCAA chance." Now they can always jump back to the USHL if their CHL team truly isn't giving them the opportunity they want.
Not sure if we’re talking passed each other here. Yeah everyone will get a bit more but I think my central point is any time kids have options, that is going to benefit the top disproportionately. If ushl is seen as dead end, then yes, “best for development” is whatever CHL team holds your rights.
Give it 5 or so years. The Q will catch right up with the other 2 leagues especially when they get an American footprint again in NH and/or Maine.
Unless the U17 team disbands, which won't happen next season, I have an extremely hard time seeing the likes of Pelosi, Fitzhenry, Scuderi, Meyer, Sears, etc. go to the CHL next year. I am hearing the same from inside the rinks also.
I think that a not insignificant amount of NHL teams though will stop trying to get every CHL guy to sign immediately, especially if there's a standardization of the period you hold drafted rights to a prospect for regardless of drafted league or if the CHL/AHL agreement doesn't change significantly. Maybe your late first rounder plays another year in the CHL for their D+1 and then goes and plays college for their D+2.
Anything is theoretically possible. Given the odd timing of him joining Halifax and that we’ve essentially never seen a prospect of any note from the USA join a team in the Q, I’m going to go with this wasn’t plan A.
The issue with this is it’s quite clear the Q does not fit into that “better than the USHL” argument. It is not a better league. This is proven year in, year out by NHL draft picks.
I haven't heard any talk of them trimming a team. Realistically, the only place I have seen that is here on HFBoards. I will be shocked if any of the top end kids from New England jump to the Q. I am sure there will be borderline kids who choose the CHL route, The Little Caesars are part of the OHL Cup and are getting mass exposure to that route, so if a few of them went that route it wouldn't surprise me. But the 17s at NTDP should be one of the best teams in years.
A. They don't speak French
The average New Englander isn't going to leave the States, leave their prep school to go to a French speaking market. The Maritimes teams will benefit though most certainly.
The Whl has a seperate draft for Americans within their rights territory since 2020. Which kids are drafted, and how high (it's only 2 rounds) might tell us a lot about any high profile guys moving to the dub.
