CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[kyle44]

Misa and Martone don't really need a 4th year of OHL, imo. If the vibe they get from the draft process is that they aren't Day 1 NHL guys, college for a year makes a lot of sense as a natural progression. Remember, the college kids can sign when their season ends and still get in end of year games if they're ready by that point as well.

I don't think the whole Training Camp then slide back to Junior thing is that enamoring for prospects, or else every top 3 round pick would drop their college commitment and go to a CHL team, regardless of whatever they had done to that point.

Agree with this. IMO, Misa could survive but likely not thrive in the NHL next year, and I do not feel Martone has the pace to play in the NHL next season. I think both would benefit from a year in college getting used to playing against older players with less time and space before their rookie season.

 

[jtechkid]

It makes 100% sense for these kids go to college play against men then do another year in the kids league chl . Look at Dickinson - martone playing pick up hockey in the OHL - getting unrealistic points and they both really stunk in the world juniors - especially dickinson free wheeling in OHL - they need play against 23 men not 17-18 kids chl lol .

 

[NTDP]

Agree with this. IMO, Misa could survive but likely not thrive in the NHL next year, and I do not feel Martone has the pace to play in the NHL next season. I think both would benefit from a year in college getting used to playing against older players with less time and space before their rookie season.

I don't think Misa or Martone are ready for the NHL next year. I've seen a few league games this year and need to watch more - but I don't think they're ready yet. I also don't think Hagens should be in the NHL next year either, he should play another year of College. But hey I've been wrong plenty of times.

 

[Kingpin794]

It's for sure a culture thing I agree, but also on the Canadian side where if you're a decently high pick you typically sign because that's what everyone's done before you (thus creating the culture). I agree with others that guys like Martone, Misa, etc don't need more years in junior and should absolutely take their game to the NCAA.

I think this notion will slowly change as people realize it's not a slight to not sign in your draft +1 or 2. A spot will be there for them when they're ready. All it takes is the first couple kids to do it and people will realize it's literally no big deal to not sign with the NHL team right away. As you know, this hasn't hurt Americans that've done this for years, or even guys like Hage, Boisvert, and Wood that chose the NCAA route. Not signing right after you're drafted will be a non factor in a few years.

Agree that the extra years of NCAA doesn't hurt guys. I would also say the extra year or two of junior doesn't hurt high end players either. Talented and motivated players will succeed one way or another. It's all going to come down to preference for each individual player.

 

[NTDP]

Agree that the extra years of NCAA doesn't hurt guys. I would also say the extra year or two of junior doesn't hurt high end players either. Talented and motivated players will succeed one way or another. It's all going to come down to preference for each individual player.

That's fair, and to your point there's guys drafted out of the USHL who returned there along with Europeans who've gone CHL or USHL in D+1.

 

[MTU34]

Don’t think this one was mentioned yet

Noah Reinhart (2004, QMJHL, Val-d’Or) to Michigan Tech

 

[WarriorofTime]

Agree that the extra years of NCAA doesn't hurt guys. I would also say the extra year or two of junior doesn't hurt high end players either. Talented and motivated players will succeed one way or another. It's all going to come down to preference for each individual player.

I agree talent and hard work will figure it out either way, regardless of path. I don't necessarily think though that the current system is the most optimal. Especially if the main justifications are just that it's how it's always been and worked fine enough to this point. If you look at Swedish and Finnish kids, they're constantly on the move. They go from U16, to U18 to U20 to second division pro to first division pro. They're never in one spot or level for very long, it's a natural progression as they get older. Of course made all simpler because it's one organization that is running all of those teams. CHL is really the one place where very high end players will routinely play 4 years and 200+ games in the same League and where the only way out is to go directly to the NHL which is a very high bar and massive leap for the vast vast vast majority of players.

 

[Corso]

Agree that the extra years of NCAA doesn't hurt guys. I would also say the extra year or two of junior doesn't hurt high end players either. Talented and motivated players will succeed one way or another. It's all going to come down to preference for each individual player.

Pretty well much this. As others have said, the next CBA contract will go a loooong way in determining how this all shakes out.

The CHL knows that their monopoly on 18–20-year-old players is coming to an end and from what I'm hearing, they have proposed a hybrid type scenario similar to what the European Junior leagues and their respective pro teams have. In short, players are loaned for a certain number of games then are returned back to their junior clubs with only the very elite staying up for the entire season. From the CHL's perspective, they would rather be viewed as a feeder to the pros (even the AHL) as opposed to strictly a NCAA feeder like the USHL.

The NCAA is trying real hard to have elite players commit in order to establish both a precedent and narrative that playing college hockey after the CHL and before the pros is the natural progression. Most college hockey coaches realize that the majority of the best talent, whether Canadian or American, will soon be in the CHL. So, making that narrative a reality is a priority.

ECL deals will also factor in, as some players will simply not want to forgo the money. Yes, I know that some here think college hockey NIL deals run in the 6 figures annually for even those drafted in the 2nd round, but they don't, at least not yet and probably won't for the foreseeable future.

Again, let's wait for the next CBA because that is when the tale will be told.

 

[Bjindaho]

What are the academic requirements for a player entering a USA university from the Quebec education system? Are both years of cégep needed? Most of these kids will be entering at 20 anyway so should have time to complete it, but just wondering.

It's common for kids in the Q to do distance learning.

Also, 1/3 of the teams in the league are outside of Quebec (currently called the Maritimes Division, but will likely be renamed to Atlantic Division when Bathurst moves to St. John's). On top of that, some Quebec cities would have schools that don't fall within the CEGEP model.

 

[Kingpin794]

I agree talent and hard work will figure it out either way, regardless of path. I don't necessarily think though that the current system is the most optimal. Especially if the main justifications are just that it's how it's always been and worked fine enough to this point. If you look at Swedish and Finnish kids, they're constantly on the move. They go from U16, to U18 to U20 to second division pro to first division pro. They're never in one spot or level for very long, it's a natural progression as they get older. Of course made all simpler because it's one organization that is running all of those teams. CHL is really the one place where very high end players will routinely play 4 years and 200+ games in the same League and where the only way out is to go directly to the NHL which is a very high bar and massive leap for the vast vast vast majority of players.

It's also easier for them to play in second tier European pro league because well, they aren't that great compared to other leagues. It also why some high end Europeans come over to play in NA whether that be the CHL or NCAA. You don't see it going the other way. Playing in the same league for 4 years isn't a bad thing inherently. Playing tier 2 is about as productive as playing CHL.

 

[MTU34]

Rylan Gould (‘05, WHL, Swift Current) to Michigan Tech.

Will still play his overage year and enter school in the fall of 2026

 

[Wieters]

Most college hockey coaches realize that the majority of the best talent, whether Canadian or American, will soon be in the CHL. So, making that narrative a reality is a priority.

Are you suggesting college hockey coaches are under the assumption that the majority of the best American talent will be in the CHL? Maybe college coaches would like to set the precedent that Canadians should consider the NCAA as the logical next step between the CHL and the NHL. But it defies logic to believe that college coaches have come to a realization that top-end Americans are going to start flocking en masse to the CHL.

 

[Corso]

Are you suggesting college hockey coaches are under the assumption that the majority of the best American talent will be in the CHL? Maybe college coaches would like to set the precedent that Canadians should consider the NCAA as the logical next step between the CHL and the NHL. But it defies logic to believe that college coaches have come to a realization that top-end Americans are going to start flocking en masse to the CHL.

Let's revisit this in two years OK.....then we will see who is right.

Rylan Gould (‘05, WHL, Swift Current) to Michigan Tech.

Will still play his overage year and enter school in the fall of 2026

Set to come 26/27

 

[Wieters]

Let's revisit this in two years OK.....then we will see who is right.

I can't be right or wrong because I'm personally not making any predictions since I recognize that quite literally no one can tell the future. The issue is that in this thread you have put yourself out there as some sort of an insider with connections. And here, you're claiming, "most college hockey coaches realize that the majority of the best talent, whether Canadian or American, will soon be in the CHL."

What is the implication here? That the CHL is going to be recruiting more of the best talent than before the rule change and that college coaches are operating under that assumption?

The best Canadian talent has always been in the CHL, so nothing is changing there. So we're talking about the best American talent. And for the majority of the best American talent to be in the CHL, you would need them to a) turn down an invite to the NTDP for their 16/17 year old seasons, and b) decide to forego the college experience to stay in the CHL for their 3rd/4th years at age 18/19.

It defies logic to suggest that American kids who previously wouldn't have considered the CHL for their 16/17 seasons specifically because of its restriction vis-a-vis the NCAA are now going to choose the CHL because that restriction doesn't exist anymore. But then those kids would paradoxically choose not to exercise their newfound freedom of going to the NCAA and instead opt to repeat the CHL for the third and fourth time when they become eligible to move to the NCAA. Oh and they would only be in the CHL in the first place because they turned down the NTDP.

Is that what you're suggesting college coaches believe?

 

[Corso]

I can't be right or wrong because I'm personally not making any predictions since I recognize that quite literally no one can tell the future. The issue is that in this thread you have put yourself out there as some sort of an insider with connections. And here, you're claiming, "most college hockey coaches realize that the majority of the best talent, whether Canadian or American, will soon be in the CHL."

What is the implication here? That the CHL is going to be recruiting more of the best talent than before the rule change and that college coaches are operating under that assumption?

The best Canadian talent has always been in the CHL, so nothing is changing there. So we're talking about the best American talent. And for the majority of the best American talent to be in the CHL, you would need them to a) turn down an invite to the NTDP for their 16/17 year old seasons, and b) decide to forego the college experience to stay in the CHL for their 3rd/4th years at age 18/19.

It defies logic to suggest that American kids who previously wouldn't have considered the CHL for their 16/17 seasons specifically because of its restriction vis-a-vis the NCAA are now going to choose the CHL because that restriction doesn't exist anymore. But then those kids would paradoxically choose not to exercise their newfound freedom of going to the NCAA and instead opt to repeat the CHL for the third and fourth time when they become eligible to move to the NCAA. Oh and they would only be in the CHL in the first place because they turned down the NTDP.

Is that what you're suggesting college coaches believe?

In two to three years the majority of the best American talent will be in the CHL....bookmark it!

 

[Wieters]

In two to three years the majority of the best American talent will be in the CHL....bookmark it!

You're not only unable/unwilling to explain how what you're suggesting even theoretically makes sense but also equivocating as to whether you're making these statements based on any actual information or simply idle conjecture. Just so we're all clear here.

 

[OSA]

You're not only unable/unwilling to explain how what you're suggesting even theoretically makes sense but also equivocating as to whether you're making these statements based on any actual information or simply idle conjecture. Just so we're all clear here.

If the majority of non-NTDP talent will strongly consider the CHL over the USHL, who are the NTDP going to play? They won’t be playing anyone in the CHL. And that is where all of the rest of the 16,17,18 year old talent will be.

 

[Wieters]

If the majority of non-NTDP talent will strongly consider the CHL over the USHL, who are the NTDP going to play? They won’t be playing anyone in the CHL. And that is where all of the rest of the 16,17,18 year old talent will be.

So according to this logic: 1) all of the non-NTDP kids will abandon the USHL for the CHL, 2) then the NTDP will have no competition and so dissolve or be rendered irrelevant, 3) then all of the would-be NTDP kids will go the CHL route at 16/17 because the NTDP is no more, and 4) then all of the above kids choose to not ever go to the NCAA even when they become eligible. Do I have that right?

One thing is message board posters wishcasting this pipe dream, but another is pretending like this is an accepted notion within real hockey recruiting circles.

 

[WarriorofTime]

NTDP Evaluation Camp typically occurs in March, so we'll have a better sense for how it all shakes out with 09s in a couple months.


34 Gabe Perreault (2005) 12 James Hagens (2006) 9 Ryan Leonard (2005)
19 Trevor Connelly (2006) 17 Danny Nelson (2005) 2 Teddy Stiga (2006)
22 Max Plante (2006) 11 Oliver Moore (2005) 74 Brodie Ziemer (2006)
23 Austin Burnevik (2005) 10 Carey Terrance (2005) 8 Brandon Svoboda (2005)
91 Cole Eiserman (2006)

5 Drew Fortescue (2005) 28 Zeev Buium (2005)
24 Cole Hutson (2006) 3 Logan Hensler (2006)
4 Colin Ralph (2005) 6 Adam Kleber (2006)
14 Aram Minnetian (2006)

1 Trey Augustine (2005)
30 Hampton Slukynsky (2005)

When USA was at the world juniors last year, that was their lineup to give a good sense of what the best Junior eligible American hockey players are doing right now. One player in the lineup (Carey Terrance) played in the OHL, along with a 3rd string goalie and healthy scratch forward. Everybody else played in the NCAA.. so 21/22 players were active NCAA players in their U20 season.

The end result of CHL players being eligible for the NCAA that the top American hockey talent is no longer playing in the NCAA in U20 seasons is.... counter-intuitive at best. The shaky foundation for that claim has been established, and it is certainly not some common bit of knowledge known amongst NCAA coaches.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Aiden Oiring (2005, WHL, Prince Albert Raiders) commits to Nebraska Omaha

 

[Kingpin794]

NTDP Evaluation Camp typically occurs in March, so we'll have a better sense for how it all shakes out with 09s in a couple months.


34 Gabe Perreault (2005) 12 James Hagens (2006) 9 Ryan Leonard (2005)
19 Trevor Connelly (2006) 17 Danny Nelson (2005) 2 Teddy Stiga (2006)
22 Max Plante (2006) 11 Oliver Moore (2005) 74 Brodie Ziemer (2006)
23 Austin Burnevik (2005) 10 Carey Terrance (2005) 8 Brandon Svoboda (2005)
91 Cole Eiserman (2006)

5 Drew Fortescue (2005) 28 Zeev Buium (2005)
24 Cole Hutson (2006) 3 Logan Hensler (2006)
4 Colin Ralph (2005) 6 Adam Kleber (2006)
14 Aram Minnetian (2006)

1 Trey Augustine (2005)
30 Hampton Slukynsky (2005)

When USA was at the world juniors last year, that was their lineup to give a good sense of what the best Junior eligible American hockey players are doing right now. One player in the lineup (Carey Terrance) played in the OHL, along with a 3rd string goalie and healthy scratch forward. Everybody else played in the NCAA.. so 21/22 players were active NCAA players in their U20 season.

The end result of CHL players being eligible for the NCAA that the top American hockey talent is no longer playing in the NCAA in U20 seasons is.... counter-intuitive at best. The shaky foundation for that claim has been established, and it is certainly not some common bit of knowledge known amongst NCAA coaches.

The 05/06 group was a strong group. But this is cyclical and not truly dependent on the quality of the NTDP development model itself. We can look at the 07/08 group. If team decides to run a mostly former NTDP team with a few bones tossed to the CHL in the coming years, they are going to be in a world of hurt. The OHL and WHL will be providing more players to the national team in the next few years. Guys like Epperson, Spellacy, Brzustewicz, Hayes, Fischer, Reid, Fiddler, Gordon-Carroll, Gorzynski, Varga will probably be taking spots. And that's before any offseason transfers occur. The upcoming OHL priority draft in April will be a good barometer for how talent may shift. Typically high end Americans aren't selected until middle rounds. Usually rounds 5-8 are where you take flyer picks on NCAA bound players. If we start to see these same players getting picked in rounds 1, 2, and 3, then the shift is real. Now there's only so many roster spots spots a CHL team has so it won't be EVERY high end American player, but the split isn't going to be 90/10 anymore. It will probably creep closer to 50/50. By 2027 or so these international teams will be a blend of the two systems.

 

[Corso]

The 05/06 group was a strong group. But this is cyclical and not truly dependent on the quality of the NTDP development model itself. We can look at the 07/08 group. If team decides to run a mostly former NTDP team with a few bones tossed to the CHL in the coming years, they are going to be in a world of hurt. The OHL and WHL will be providing more players to the national team in the next few years. Guys like Epperson, Spellacy, Brzustewicz, Hayes, Fischer, Reid, Fiddler, Gordon-Carroll, Gorzynski, Varga will probably be taking spots. And that's before any offseason transfers occur. The upcoming OHL priority draft in April will be a good barometer for how talent may shift. Typically high end Americans aren't selected until middle rounds. Usually rounds 5-8 are where you take flyer picks on NCAA bound players. If we start to see these same players getting picked in rounds 1, 2, and 3, then the shift is real. Now there's only so many roster spots spots a CHL team has so it won't be EVERY high end American player, but the split isn't going to be 90/10 anymore. It will probably creep closer to 50/50. By 2027 or so these international teams will be a blend of the two systems.

USA Hockey needs to make a firm decision on what to do with the NTDP, lots of rumors flying around right now that it may drop one team.

The USHL, for the most part, cannot compete with the resources offered by most CHL programs. I believe I mentioned this previously (probably 30 pages back) but the financial wherewithal of most USHL clubs cannot afford the stipends, scholarship packages (that are used by players even before entering college or U-Sports) and other amenities offered by the CHL. The best players will choose the programs or leagues that offer the most.

Always amusing that people see what they want, even in what is posted here. I never claimed that the majority of American talent will eschew the NCAA route (at least not initially), just that the majority of the best American talent will be playing in the CHL for at least a certain amount of time. As you said, cultural affinity/pull will still steer a lot of the very best Americans into the NCAA (some at 18, most at 19) but, and this is a VERY IMPORTANT BUT, how the NHL structures its new CBA in relation to the age of the draft, player retention rights, signing bonuses and the CHL/NHL transfer agreement will really determine how this shakes out for player movement and progression from the amateur to the pro ranks.

 

[WarriorofTime]

So to be clear, you’re walking back.

The 05/06 group was a strong group. But this is cyclical and not truly dependent on the quality of the NTDP development model itself. We can look at the 07/08 group. If team decides to run a mostly former NTDP team with a few bones tossed to the CHL in the coming years, they are going to be in a world of hurt. The OHL and WHL will be providing more players to the national team in the next few years. Guys like Epperson, Spellacy, Brzustewicz, Hayes, Fischer, Reid, Fiddler, Gordon-Carroll, Gorzynski, Varga will probably be taking spots. And that's before any offseason transfers occur. The upcoming OHL priority draft in April will be a good barometer for how talent may shift. Typically high end Americans aren't selected until middle rounds. Usually rounds 5-8 are where you take flyer picks on NCAA bound players. If we start to see these same players getting picked in rounds 1, 2, and 3, then the shift is real. Now there's only so many roster spots spots a CHL team has so it won't be EVERY high end American player, but the split isn't going to be 90/10 anymore. It will probably creep closer to 50/50. By 2027 or so these international teams will be a blend of the two systems.

CHL Kids will compete for at least a few spots here and there as they always have. We can rather confidently say 06 and 07 born kids that play on a world junior team will still consist of mostly former NTDP kids (look at scouting beyond just first round profiles). In five years, when it’s 09 and 10 born kids that are 19 and 18, would you really expect a non majority ncaa team at the U20? Irregardless of what ncaa feeder they once played at. That’s what the other guy basically stated above.

 

[Voight]

Are you suggesting college hockey coaches are under the assumption that the majority of the best American talent will be in the CHL? Maybe college coaches would like to set the precedent that Canadians should consider the NCAA as the logical next step between the CHL and the NHL. But it defies logic to believe that college coaches have come to a realization that top-end Americans are going to start flocking en masse to the CHL.

I do think you will see more high end American prospects opt for the CHL over the USHL now, at least in the two years pre draft, knowing that they can still play college hockey.

 

[Kingpin794]

So to be clear, you’re walking back.
CHL Kids will compete for at least a few spots here and there as they always have. We can rather confidently say 06 and 07 born kids that play on a world junior team will still consist of mostly former NTDP kids (look at scouting beyond just first round profiles). In five years, when it’s 09 and 10 born kids that are 19 and 18, would you really expect a non majority ncaa team at the U20? Irregardless of what ncaa feeder they once played at. That’s what the other guy basically stated above.

Walking back what?

Yes, that's what I said. It will be closer to a 50/50 split.