The 05/06 group was a strong group. But this is cyclical and not truly dependent on the quality of the NTDP development model itself. We can look at the 07/08 group. If team decides to run a mostly former NTDP team with a few bones tossed to the CHL in the coming years, they are going to be in a world of hurt. The OHL and WHL will be providing more players to the national team in the next few years. Guys like Epperson, Spellacy, Brzustewicz, Hayes, Fischer, Reid, Fiddler, Gordon-Carroll, Gorzynski, Varga will probably be taking spots. And that's before any offseason transfers occur. The upcoming OHL priority draft in April will be a good barometer for how talent may shift. Typically high end Americans aren't selected until middle rounds. Usually rounds 5-8 are where you take flyer picks on NCAA bound players. If we start to see these same players getting picked in rounds 1, 2, and 3, then the shift is real. Now there's only so many roster spots spots a CHL team has so it won't be EVERY high end American player, but the split isn't going to be 90/10 anymore. It will probably creep closer to 50/50. By 2027 or so these international teams will be a blend of the two systems.
Hate to break it to you, but that’s not a strong pool of candidates compared to the NTDP. Maybe it’s slightly better than it was a few years ago (and I think more than anything that’s the fault of the USHL not playing enough younger players), but some of the names you mention really highlight the lack of substance behind that group. Epperson was essentially cut from the NTDP because he wasn’t good enough. Spellacy is a fourth line only guy. Maybe an NHL’er like that, but no one that’s going to move any opinions. Hayes wasn’t even good on the worst Hlinka forward core I can remember for the USA (shouldn’t that speak to the CHL talent or lack thereof?).
Other than Reid, Fiddler, maybe SGC or Varga, likely none of those guys make a dent on anything. The reality is that you’re pulling players from like three different birth years there and the average NTDP birth year has that much talent or more. It’s really not a level playing field as things currently stand. Maybe that’ll change, but the ratio right now is like 3/1 (or more) NTDP to CHL for American players.
And I’d argue the 05/06 groups weren’t even that strong. How about giving the 07/08 the same amount of time that the ones you claim are strong were given? The 07 has won like 7 games in a row now after everyone trashed them. The 05 looked worse as U17’s than the 07 did. Look where they are now.
Edit: Thinking about it some more, I think the goal for the CHL in the interim should be to overtake the USHL in the pecking order for American talent. As things currently stand, there's still more talent that doesn't go to the NTDP that goes to the USHL than the CHL (players like Connelly, Swanson, Reeder, Kevan, Rombach, Simpson, Schultz, Grimes, Nycz, Hextall). I think that pool of talent I just named is better than the pool of talent you named (maybe doesn't have a Reid, but stronger overall). And I won't even get into all of the lower picks with little chance to make the NHL. The USHL tends to have a bunch of that, so there's some depth. The CHL simply doesn't have very many Americans of any substance. I think the USHL has to reckon with that they are starting to lose some talent because they don't play enough younger players. Maybe there's some Connelly like off ice issue we don't know with Reid (hope not, but how do I know?) that caused him to fall below the NTDP radar and caused Waterloo to decide the talent doesn't matter and they simply can't deal with him, but it's probably more likely that a dinosaur coach refused to give the player who has the biggest future in the organization ice time (one who is younger than everyone else), he goes elsewhere, and he thrives.
As for comparing CHL to NTDP, I still don't think picking them off at high numbers is realistic, unless the NTDP as a program basically collapses (in which case, the NTDP isn't even part of the discussion anymore). These players still want to play international at the WHC17, WJC18, along with the Hlinka and WJC20 (let's face it they're at a disadvantage compared to NTDP, USHL, and NCAA players for WJC20 and compared to USHL players for Hlinka due to USAH having an anti-CHL bias). These kids don't really care about potentially being a trailblazer or anything like that with a new path. It's a hard sell. They care about getting the opportunities that will help them get drafted and advancing their pro careers. I think it'll take a lot of time to change that. Overtaking the USHL (that doesn't seem to understand they need to play younger players) should be the next step for the CHL. Overtaking the NTDP isn't happening right away unless the NTDP folds and voluntarily withdraws from the discussion.
