CHL can now play NCAA - change everything !

[jtechkid]

Some months back, when this issue first surfaced, Chris Peters had a debate with UND beat writer Brad Schlossman and pretty well much said everything you just posted. Scholssman was of the opinion that the NCAA would now be the top of the pyramid in terms of amateur development and first round CHLers would flock to the NCAA to play against older competition but Peters was having none of that. His claim, as yours, was that in no way would the NHL give up the way their prospects are developed and would in fact heavily influence the top end elite players to stay in the CHL.

I don't know how this is going to shake itself out but I'm kind of the opinion that you and Chris Peters are right. I have talked to some connected people and they are telling me that the CHL has long prepared for this eventuality, hence their willingness to change the NHL-CHL transfer agreement. I also was told that some pretty prominent college programs have already approached some CHL franchises in order to work out a development recruitment strategy (similar to what they currently have with all the USHL franchises) but were flatly rebuffed. It seems that the CHL stance is that you can have our 20 and 21 year old players but our top prospects will remain in the CHL.

the big question really why are US colleges funding development of Canada kids over USA kids will be big question going forward . the dream of most Canada hockey kids is probably playing CHL team . the dream of usa kids is really to play college hockey . today, Canada kids will take a lot of spots from USA kids going forward so love to see import rule on it .

 

[Hockeyville USA]

the big question really why are US colleges funding development of Canada kids over USA kids will be big question going forward . the dream of most Canada hockey kids is probably playing CHL team . the dream of usa kids is really to play college hockey . today, Canada kids will take a lot of spots from USA kids going forward so love to see import rule on it .

Import rule on what? The NCAA isn't going to limit number of Canadians in NCAA Hockey.

 

[Corso]

Import rule on what? The NCAA isn't going to limit number of Canadians in NCAA Hockey.

The NCAA will want to attract the best players it can, no matter where they are from.

 

[jtechkid]

The NCAA will want to attract the best players it can, no matter where they are from.

100% agree / but your going to hear rumbling on us college hockey teams about import rule on canada sweden russians ext . right now im guessing its 25-35% non usa kids on ncaa college roster which i know lot of people are upset about it . when that numbers hits 50-60% in next 5 years it will big topic .

 

[jtechkid]

in addition their lot of import rules on lot of the major pro league in europe . bchl has a strict rule on it . i watched some canada football league and they have a limit on usa players so its not crazy topic . ncaa hockey should and they will eventually but will take 5-7 years .

 

[Bjorn Le]

I don't see how an import rule will stand up in court. Individual schools won't support an import quota because there will be an arms race to get the best ex-CHLers, and anything driven from U.S. Hockey will not be justifiable if the NCAA gets sued (and it definitely would).

 

[jtechkid]

I don't see how an import rule will stand up in court. Individual schools won't support an import quota because there will be an arms race to get the best ex-CHLers, and anything driven from U.S. Hockey will not be justifiable if the NCAA gets sued (and it definitely would).

i’m not lawyer but their our import rules in bchl - canada football league right now .

 

[cg98]

i’m not lawyer but their our import rules in bchl - canada football league right now .

NCAA sports constitute as "Extracurricular Academic Activities" and and as such is not qualified as a "sports league" and is not beholdened to import laws for international students and non-American nationals competing in sports for US institutions.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Can a player play in the CHL for their age 16 season and then go to the NCAA for their age 17 season?

No one knows. We’re all just speculating.

This will probably have to be negotiated, but I think that the CHL would push back on that significantly.

 

[hockeyFan029]

No one knows. We’re all just speculating.

This will probably have to be negotiated, but I think that the CHL would push back on that significantly.

How would they be able to push back on it. Why can't the kid just leave to play in the NCAA hockey at age 17?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How would they be able to push back on it. Why can't the kid just leave to play in the NCAA hockey at age 17?

Because right now CHL is considered semi-pro and not allowed by NCAA.

When/if the NCAA institutes the changes that are expected, that will change. Until then, it won’t be allowed.

However, the CHL still has the command over their pool of players. They sign some sort of contract with a CHL team, even if it’s not a true professional hockey contract. If a player wanted to break that and leave for another league, there would likely be some threat of a lawsuit. Whether a determined player, like say Gavin McKenna, could hypothetically go play SHL next season if he wanted (taking the NCAA example out because currently he wouldn’t qualify for NCAA), it would be interesting to see it play out and what happens. I don’t think anyone knows for sure how that would unfold.

 

[Bonin21]

CHL teams aren't going to spend a bunch of money on lawsuits.

 

[WarriorofTime]

USA NCAA % currently stands at around 60 %. One thing to consider though is that we're only a few cohorts away from there being an equal number of male registered players between USA and Canada. Of course the number of kids playing "elite" level hockey is going to be more relevant and harder to nail with precision. There's been a pretty large growth on Europeans playing NCAA Hockey the last ten years. A bunch of Canadians coming and taking jobs is harder to speculate. Yes, it'll be tougher for NAHL and NCDC to make D1, but it'll be harder for Canadian Junior A as well. The USHL will be fine, the biggest difference right now between CHL and USHL guys if you factor in the NTDP kids that get plucked away is really that the USHL teams send off guys to the NCAA before their junior eligibility expires. And of course that there's 4X as many CHL teams.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

How would they be able to push back on it. Why can't the kid just leave to play in the NCAA hockey at age 17?

Mostly because you have to graduate high school to go to college? How many HS kids can accelerate their grades enough to get into college at 17. According to a short search, 2 this year have (Potter and Boumedienne) and 1 last year (Celebrini). Maybe ask the question again with the age being 18?
It's been pointed out many times that the NCAA and CHL don't overlap much in age.
It's mostly just 19 year olds.
There were only 30 18 year old NCAA D1 players last year:

Elite Prospects - NCAA Stats 2023-2024

2023-2024 regular season player stats for NCAA, including top goal scorers, most games played, PPG leaders and more.

www.eliteprospects.com

and the CHL has an a 3 per team cap on 20 year olds, that they might as well get rid of imo.

 

[hockeyFan029]

Mostly because you have to graduate high school to go to college? How many HS kids can accelerate their grades enough to get into college at 17. According to a short search, 2 this year have (Potter and Boumedienne) and 1 last year (Celebrini). Maybe ask the question again with the age being 18?
It's been pointed out many times that the NCAA and CHL don't overlap much in age.
It's mostly just 19 year olds.
There were only 30 18 year old NCAA D1 players last year:

Elite Prospects - NCAA Stats 2023-2024

2023-2024 regular season player stats for NCAA, including top goal scorers, most games played, PPG leaders and more.

www.eliteprospects.com

and the CHL has an a 3 per team cap on 20 year olds, that they might as well get rid of imo.

Okay, the point I'm trying to make is can a CHL player leave while they are still eligible to play in CHL (age 17, 18, 19) to go play in NCAA?

 

[Corso]

Okay, the point I'm trying to make is can a CHL player leave while they are still eligible to play in CHL (age 17, 18, 19) to go play in NCAA?

As stated throughout this thread, that is the million dollar question. From the NCAA standpoint, the only thing preventing a 17 year old from playing would be academic eligibility. Gavin McKenna would certainly have the ability to play on the college of his choice during his D year but does he care to do so? Does he have the core classes required to meet the NCAA academic eligibility? If he does and has the desire to do so, his CHL contract would then stand in the way. Would the CHL enforce that contract stipulation?

Lots of questions and we will not know the answer until some CHLer wants to hit the NCAA ranks at the age of 18.

 

[wickedwitch]

I think academic eligibility will be an issue, at least at first. Players who have always known they want to play in the NCAA are taking classes and keeping their grades good enough to go to the program that they want. And some of the top programs have genuine academic standards. Meanwhile, CHLers may not have all been keeping their grades up and taking the needed courses, because until now it wasn't a priority. Long-term, this could be corrected, but it might be an issue for the next few years.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Okay, the point I'm trying to make is can a CHL player leave while they are still eligible to play in CHL (age 17, 18, 19) to go play in NCAA?

I'm just guessing like everyone else, but if a chl kid really wants to go and an NCAA program wants him he'll be able to go. It would massively awful publicity to stand in the way of a kid who wants to do so. Awful for the team that does it, and awful for the league. These are kids, their stipend isn't even worthy of calling a wage (no matter what the ncaa claims). The spc they sign may or may not stand up in court but they'd get killed in the court of public opinion. imo of course.

 

[Bubbles]

Mostly because you have to graduate high school to go to college? How many HS kids can accelerate their grades enough to get into college at 17. According to a short search, 2 this year have (Potter and Boumedienne) and 1 last year (Celebrini). Maybe ask the question again with the age being 18?

Of recent vintage, I would say Jonathan Toews, Matthew Wood and Zach werenski.

 

[Blue and Green]

Lots of guys will play CHL and then instead of going to the AHL (for further development after being drafted) they will go the US college route. Play a couple years in college, sign their elc, and step into the big club at 22/23. The top end guys will not be impacted but most players need to develop into their early 20’s before becoming regular NHLers.

CHLers who are not good enough to play in the AHL at age 20 are highly unlikely to become NHL-calibre and typically won't get an ELC. For those that are good enough, the AHL is a better place than the NCAA to develop NHL readiness and they'll get paid $150,000+ for three years, too. The latter is not the group that will be affected much by this change.

 

[Fatass]

CHLers who are not good enough to play in the AHL at age 20 are highly unlikely to become NHL-calibre and typically won't get an ELC. For those that are good enough, the AHL is a better place than the NCAA to develop NHL readiness and they'll get paid $150,000+ for three years, too. The latter is not the group that will be affected much by this change.

And in all scenarios the new rules will harm tier two junior. The high end guys those leagues used to get will play CHL.

 

[Blue and Green]

Also, my feeling here is that the CHL is less worried about their players gaining NCAA eligibility in the abstract, and FAR more worried about the bucks they’ll need to shell out if more guys use their league-funded scholarships. Remember, though the dollar value of each individual CHL scholarship is dictated by the domicile rule, the scholarship itself can be used at nearly any post-secondary institution in the world, including in the U.S.

I can see a situation in the future where a kid leaves a CHL program early to go NCAA and, to add insult to injury, receives league scholarship coin he’s earned to help facilitate the move.

Probably the CHL will re-write its educational benefits program to ensure that it is not subsidizing NCAA hockey.

 

[HawksDub89]

Where it could hurt CHL is if there’s a big exodus of high end 18-19 year olds to NCAA every year. That puts anyone that tries to jump from Junior to Pro at a disadvantage, and in turns incentivizes more elite level kids that are hoping to play in the NHL in their D+1 to accelerate their schooling and enter NCAA at 17 (like Celebrini)

This is how I see it too. I believe you’ll see even more Celebrini, Fantilli and Powers types opt for NCAA.

 

[HawksDub89]

Haven’t had time to read this whole thread, but revenue sharing is coming to college sports very soon. It’ll be interesting to see how much more that affects things as well.