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Carlsen-Nepomniachtchi: Predictions - Chess.com

"With three days to go until the 2021 FIDE World Championship match, the chess world can't wait until GM Magnus Carlsen and GM Ian Nepomniachtchi finally sit down at the board on Friday in Dubai. The big question—who is going to win?—is on everyone's mind. Below is a selection of predictions from a wide range of personalities from the chess world."

Nepo must win in classical. @Harbour Dog
 
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BREAKING: Carlsen Wins Game 6, Longest World Chess Championship Game Of All Time - Chess.com

"GM Magnus Carlsen defeated GM Ian Nepomniachtchi in a record 136 moves in game six to score the first win of the 2021 FIDE World Chess Championship. The world champion's victory came after five draws in the championship that has a €2 million prize fund. Game seven is scheduled for Saturday at 16:30 Dubai time (13:30 CET, 4:30 a.m. Pacific). Carlsen had to wait five years and nine days to win a classical world championship game. It took him two days to win this one. For game six, the players spent a staggering seven hours and 47 minutes at the board and finished 17 minutes past midnight in Dubai. The game started on Friday and ended on Saturday—something that hadn't happened since adjournments were abolished in the mid-1990s. In terms of moves, the game broke the record of the longest game in world championship history. Before today, it was the 124 moves played in the fifth match game of Korchnoi-Karpov, Baguio City 1978"

It took @Harbour Dog 136 moves to beat me. ;)
 
It was a heck of a game. I'd been a little disappointed in how theoretical a battle we were getting in the previous five. They never even got out of book in a couple games.

This one was fantastic though; and Magnus put on an absolute endgame clinic. I'm hoping that now Nepo has to push a little harder for a win and we see some more risks on the board.
 
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The championship has been entertaining so far.

The first three games were all close, with Nepomniachtchi getting good chances in all three (including in game 2 as black), but Carlsen defended expertly. In Game 4, Carlsen, as white, had the better position, but it was a short draw.

Game 5 must have been frustrating for Nepomniachtchi. As white, he put Carlsen under considerable pressure, but the Norwegian kept eluding danger.

Game 6 was extraordinary. It was the longest championship game in chess history, lasting 136 moves. There were good chance on both sides throughout the middlegame. Tablebases showed that the outcome was a draw with perfect play. Carlsen's precision (in a game that last nearly eight hours!) was extraordinary, and eventually Nepomniachtchi made some small inaccuracies that allowed the reigning champion to win the marathon session.

Today's game 7 was a dud. Huge amounts of material were traded relatively early on, and they agreed to a draw after 41 moves (this was the least interesting game so far).

Nepomniachtchi is in a tough spot. I wonder how demoralizing it must have been to have Carlsen continually avoid danger in game 5, and then lose the marathon game 6. It's understandable that both players, surely exhausted, wanted a quick draw in game 7. I wonder if Nepomniachtchi will regret not pushing harder in game 7 as white (since he's down 4-3 and now Carlsen is white in four of the remaining seven games).
 
The championship has been entertaining so far.

The first three games were all close, with Nepomniachtchi getting good chances in all three (including in game 2 as black), but Carlsen defended expertly. In Game 4, Carlsen, as white, had the better position, but it was a short draw.

Game 5 must have been frustrating for Nepomniachtchi. As white, he put Carlsen under considerable pressure, but the Norwegian kept eluding danger.

Game 6 was extraordinary. It was the longest championship game in chess history, lasting 136 moves. There were good chance on both sides throughout the middlegame. Tablebases showed that the outcome was a draw with perfect play. Carlsen's precision (in a game that last nearly eight hours!) was extraordinary, and eventually Nepomniachtchi made some small inaccuracies that allowed the reigning champion to win the marathon session.

Today's game 7 was a dud. Huge amounts of material were traded relatively early on, and they agreed to a draw after 41 moves (this was the least interesting game so far).

Nepomniachtchi is in a tough spot. I wonder how demoralizing it must have been to have Carlsen continually avoid danger in game 5, and then lose the marathon game 6. It's understandable that both players, surely exhausted, wanted a quick draw in game 7. I wonder if Nepomniachtchi will regret not pushing harder in game 7 as white (since he's down 4-3 and now Carlsen is white in four of the remaining seven games).

Carlsen going back to that Rb8 line in the Anti-Marshall today was a big surprise to me. His position in game 5 was far from pleasant, and I thought we'd seen the end of that idea; especially in a game where they were both clearly still tired.

Nepo taking on f6 without being forced was a sign to me that he had little desire to fight it out today though. Hopefully they have some more energy back for tomorrow's game.
 
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Carlsen going back to that Rb8 line in the Anti-Marshall today was a big surprise to me. His position in game 5 was far from pleasant, and I thought we'd seen the end of that idea; especially in a game where they were both clearly still tired.

Nepo taking on f6 without being forced was a sign to me that he had little desire to fight it out today though. Hopefully they have some more energy back for tomorrow's game.

Good observation - game 7 was identical to game 5 through ten moves (and it was Nepo who deviated first today).

And that capture on f6 looks like the type of move I'd make when I'm out of ideas. The series of rapid exchanges took place sooner after.
 
Magnus about to go up 2-0.

I think he chose to go against the Petroff so that he'd have a safer game and not risk losing, but Nepo blundered pretty bad with 21...b5.

Six games to go, gotta think that Nepo goes for sharp lines from here on. Though I won't be surprised at all if he wants to test Magnus in that Rb8 Anti-Marshall again, next game.
 
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Magnus about to go up 2-0.

I think he chose to go against the Petroff so that he'd have a safer game and not risk losing, but Nepo blundered pretty bad with 21...d5.

Six games to go, gotta think that Nepo goes for sharp lines from here on. Though I won't be surprised at all if he wants to test Magnus in that Rb8 Anti-Marshall again, next game.

I watched game six live. Don't let anyone tell you chess isn't a sport. What a performance by Magnus, who deliberately unbalanced the game, even to his initial detriment, to get winning chances. The squeeze he eventually put on his opponent in that marathon game was a thing of beauty, determination and nerves of steel.
 
Magnus about to go up 2-0. I think he chose to go against the Petroff so that he'd have a safer game and not risk losing, but Nepo blundered pretty bad with 21...d5. Six games to go, gotta think that Nepo goes for sharp lines from here on. Though I won't be surprised at all if he wants to test Magnus in that Rb8 Anti-Marshall again, next game.
Agreed with all. Nepo needs to go with sharp lines and I want to see it. I'd also like to see some non symmetrical first moves by Black from both players.
 
I watched game six live. Don't let anyone tell you chess isn't a sport. What a performance by Magnus, who deliberately unbalanced the game, even to his initial detriment, to get winning chances. The squeeze he eventually put on his opponent in that marathon game was a thing of beauty, determination and nerves of steel.

I was exhausted just from watching!

In the interview after the game, Magnus mentioned that at some point he decided that the best course of action was to intentionally lengthen the game as much as he could to tire Nepo out. It worked brilliantly.

And what's more, I don't think Nepo hasn't recovered from it. Today, when Carlsen was in a winning position, he was still spending plenty of time calculating everything, and you could just see that Nepo is completely wiped; just wanted the game to end.
 
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I was exhausted just from watching! In the interview after the game, Magnus mentioned that at some point he decided that the best course of action was to intentionally lengthen the game as much as he could to tire Nepo out. It worked brilliantly. And what's more, I don't think Nepo has recovered from it. Today, when Carlsen was in a winning position, he was still spending plenty of time calculating everything, and you could just see that Nepo is completely wiped; just wanted the game to end.
Agreed. Fitness is huge at classical time controls and I thought Magnus had the edge before the match. Although Magnus is better, I also think he takes it more seriously. Nepo is funny, but he's kind of the 80s Bill Murray of chess.
 
I apologize for jumping in late... I’d like to get into chess. Any good sites or apps to play and/or learn? I’m also interested because I’d like to get my elderly father involved... I think it would be good for him.
 
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I apologize for jumping in late... I’d like to get into chess. Any good sites or apps to play and/or learn? I’m also interested because I’d like to get my elderly father involved... I think it would be good for him.

Chess.com is definitely the best site to start with as a newbie. They have a wide variety of lessons, drills, training, and a neverending queue of people from all over the world who are looking to play games.

And if you just want to have some chess content, Hikaru is a great streamer. I have a buddy who hasn't played a game of chess in a decade, but he watches Hikaru regularly.
 
I was exhausted just from watching!

In the interview after the game, Magnus mentioned that at some point he decided that the best course of action was to intentionally lengthen the game as much as he could to tire Nepo out. It worked brilliantly.

And what's more, I don't think Nepo has recovered from it. Today, when Carlsen was in a winning position, he was still spending plenty of time calculating everything, and you could just see that Nepo is completely wiped; just wanted the game to end.

Yep, that's why many commentators were surprised Nepo didn't trade Queens early when he could to aim for a quick draw, maybe a bit inexperience shining through.
 
I apologize for jumping in late... I’d like to get into chess. Any good sites or apps to play and/or learn? I’m also interested because I’d like to get my elderly father involved... I think it would be good for him.

Do you have a basic understanding of the rules, or are you completely new to the game? (Asking as that would impact what types of books to recommend).
 
Carlsen won game 8. Nepo looks beat. I didn't watch it live, but apparently he spent a large part of the game in his dressing room (maybe I'm reading too much into that, but could speak to the pressure getting to him).

Everyone is pointing out one specific move Nepo allowed (where he left a pawn hanging). That was bad, but the trouble started earlier. It was surprising for him to go with such a passive, symmetrical opening (see move 8). Maybe he was trying to secure a draw (he was black, and he gets a rest day tomorrow) and fight back on Tuesday as white, but that seems to have backfired.

Another example - move 25, Nepo is already down a pawn. He doesn't have to, but he exchanges a rook and a bishop. Generally you don't want to simplify the board when you're behind - and this hurts his pawn structure and exposes his king.

Carlsen, with his incredible accuracy, is looking like a machine.
 
Carlsen won game 8. Nepo looks beat. I didn't watch it live, but apparently he spent a large part of the game in his dressing room (maybe I'm reading too much into that, but could speak to the pressure getting to him).

Everyone is pointing out one specific move Nepo allowed (where he left a pawn hanging). That was bad, but the trouble started earlier. It was surprising for him to go with such a passive, symmetrical opening (see move 8). Maybe he was trying to secure a draw (he was black, and he gets a rest day tomorrow) and fight back on Tuesday as white, but that seems to have backfired.

Another example - move 25, Nepo is already down a pawn. He doesn't have to, but he exchanges a rook and a bishop. Generally you don't want to simplify the board when you're behind - and this hurts his pawn structure and exposes his king.

Carlsen, with his incredible accuracy, is looking like a machine.

This was actually the first game I couldn't watch entirely either. I seen from a couple moves before Nepo playing b5 to put himself in a losing position. He was definitely spending way more time in the dressing room. It seemed like he was doing most of his calculations there and then coming out to make moves.

He looked completely exhausted and demoralized by the end of the game. And Magnus was still intensely calculating at the board, despite the position. Game 6 could go down as the point where Magnus won the match; Nepomniachtchi has been a different player since that gauntlet.

I think you're right that he made some oddly passive choices, but his prep has been so good to this point, that I don't think I would have questioned it live. Contrasting it to the other game that they played in the Petroff, Nepo looked uber-confident in that line. He even basically said in the presser afterward that he was never out of book.

Magnus found a little chink in his armor, and has gone about dismantling him.
 
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Mostly new. I know what the pieces do, but not much beyond that. Brand new to strategy and such.

One of the books that helped me was "Logical Chess: Move By Move: Every Move Explained" by Irving Chernev (available on Amazon). The author takes 33 games and explains the purpose of each and every move (with a fair number of diagrams). This helps illustrate general concepts in a practical way. (The book is dated, written in the 1950's I believe, and is behind the times in terms of some strategies/approaches, but it should be helpful for a novice player).

Before rushing to buy this - do you have a basic understanding of tactics like the fork, discovered check, pins, etc? If so, this book should serve you well. If not, it might be a bit too advanced and an intro to chess tactics book might be better.
 
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LIVE: FIDE World Chess Championship Game 9 Nepo - Carlsen - Chess.com
"Strong engines, who don't feel such pressure, were more optimistic with their evaluation for Black, but that changed all of a sudden when Nepomniachtchi lashed out with 21...b5?, this time after four minutes of thinking, and causing a triple "WOW!" from our commentators in the studio. Nepomniachtchi poured in some more tea, looked at his opponent but then walked away from the board. Carlsen's body language revealed surprise, and after five and a half minutes of double-checking, the world champion gave the queen check to snatch the pawn his opponent had gifted him. After 22.Qa3+ was played, Nepomniachtchi remained away from the board for a full eight minutes while his clock was ticking before he finally showed up at the board again. "He might be putting water on his face and regretting 21...b5 at this point," said IM Danny Rensch, and that was exactly what was happening".

"For quite some time I was regretting to play 21…b5," said Nepo about staying in his rest room so long. "In a very drawish position, blundering a pawn like this, it hurts."
Speed Chess Championship: Nakamura Defeats Giri, Will Face Ding In SF - Chess.com

I'll take the Ding/Naka winner in the final.
 
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Nepo blundered his Bishop... painful to see. He's playing it out, but it's over. Going to be 3-0 Magnus.
The game 6 marathon seems to have taken the starch out of him. I'm looking forward to Ali or Ding getting a shot and possibly playing in a calmer, more conventional style including taking more time to think and spending more time at the board.
 
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