Cherry picking from an intellectual perspective

Hotep Numminen

Registered User
Aug 13, 2020
176
288
Why don’t more wingers cheat up the ice to create breakaway chances? Power plays only convert about what, 20% of the time? And in those cases, it's a teams most talented offensive players approaching play with a scoring mindset. A skilled player’s breakaway success rate should be higher. The reward seems worth the defensive risk. Should a bottom dwelling team take a chance on a cheap, high talent AHL superstar and employ this kind of tactic?
 
For some teams that would work here and there, but then there would be a book on your team and more specifically your player(s) that you send to try and create that.

On the PK teams are already fairly passive, so them hanging out a bit closer to their blue line wouldn't be much of an adjustment.

The main issue is 5 on 5 as the puck has to travel a fair distance and avoid being picked off on the way there AND the player has to be able to receive said pass.

There's more danger/risk there.

Your best bet is to have some try to anticipate when your team will get the puck back and run the zone. Long bomb off the boards your player should get there first and have a chance, but really only an option you want to use if you really need a goal and have very little to nothing to lose if it goes sideways.
 
I'm not entirely sure what OP thinks could happen here? Do you mean cherry pick on the PP? Impossible. As stated above, defenders often don't even leave their zone on the pk so there's no breakaway pretty much ever on the PP.

At 5on5, as soon as a defender saw a winger trying to get in behind him in the neutral zone he would just retreat.

Only real place I could see this happening is on the pk. But do you really want to play 3on5 in hopes that you can intercept a pass and get a pass off to the cheating winger?

Also, what's a 'high talent AHL superstar?'
 
  • Like
Reactions: notsocommonsense
Sorry, I was just meaning that worst case scenario, the cherry picker gives the other team a de facto powerplay. But playing the odds, the breakaways should outweigh whatever was lost. I really mean 5 on 5 play. It seems like we should see it a lot more.
 
Not a real response. I understand it's not the way the game has been played, but once you consider the percentages, it just seems the upside in some situations would outweigh the negatives.

Until you inevitably get scored on and the fans/media wonder “what would have happened if they didn’t have a forward cherry picking”

Team defense is an art. Recover the puck, break out with speed and short passes, then go generate offense. Take care of your own zone first.

There is no cheating defensive hockey. That’s not realistic.

I’m sure it worked for you in EA Sports, though.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Giant Panda
Maybe seek a lower level coaching gig with some kids and give this theory a shot, let us know how it goes. Perhaps you'll become a trailblazer

:dunno:
 
Also, what's a 'high talent AHL superstar?'
The ahl has many players who have been deemed too small, or not good enough at defense to earn an NHL spot. I think a smarter org could use players like that with a more aggressive strat. High upside relative to the cost.
 
The ahl has many players who have been deemed too small, or not good enough at defense to earn an NHL spot. I think a smarter org could use players like that with a more aggressive strat. High upside relative to the cost.
So what is a breakaways scoring percentage vs all in pp % this year
 
  • Like
Reactions: Fatass
Until you inevitably get scored on and the fans/media wonder “what would have happened if they didn’t have a forward cherry picking”

Team defense is an art. Recover the puck, break out with speed and short passes, then go generate offense. Take care of your own zone first.

There is no cheating defensive hockey. That’s not realistic.

I’m sure it worked for you in EA Sports, though.
Yes this is the common view, I'm well aware. That's why I titled this thread, "...from an intellectual perspective." But I think the percentages might work out differently if employed on the reg. You're giving me media fear and truisms. That's not convincing.

And I always played as a D-man in EA.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RedHawkDown
So what is a breakaways scoring percentage vs all in pp % this year
i dont know. but you have to factor in that these are skewed by lesser players that a cherry-picking strategy wouldn't be employing. i imagine it would end up more closely resembling shootout attempts.
 
The ahl has many players who have been deemed too small, or not good enough at defense to earn an NHL spot. I think a smarter org could use players like that with a more aggressive strat. High upside relative to the cost.
Ah gotcha. So you're saying replace a 4th liner (for instance) with an offensive ahler and utilize that ahler in a cherry picking role?
 
Why don’t more wingers cheat up the ice to create breakaway chances? Power plays only convert about what, 20% of the time? And in those cases, it's a teams most talented offensive players approaching play with a scoring mindset. A skilled player’s breakaway success rate should be higher. The reward seems worth the defensive risk. Should a bottom dwelling team take a chance on a cheap, high talent AHL superstar and employ this kind of tactic?
Are you familiar with the 1-3-1?

Do teams just give up neutral zone plays and their defensive coverage?
 
Are you familiar with the 1-3-1?

Do teams just give up neutral zone plays and their defensive coverage?
i think teams could develop specialized 4 man d-zone postures that would aid in pursuing this strategy. but it wouldn't have to be full-time. the element of surprise might help make the strat work better.
 
Cuz most pps operate at around 20% themselves, so creating that self inflicted 5 on 4 is a bad idea especially considering that cherry picking isn't going to be converting at 20% of the time, even then it's a 0 gain tradeoff
 
It wouldn’t be just adding skilled wingers, you’d need to design the whole team around this. 4 elite faceoff Cs, the best rebound control goalie in the league, big wingspan defensive D that can make a pass, and so on. If it’s not the +EV strategy you thought it would be, you’re stuck with a team that can’t do much else very well.

That said, guys like Kessel, Hagelin, Grabner and Nylander have stacked up a lot of points like this. The best case scenario version of this would be that it’s so effective that it forces other teams to play back and spam low danger shots which might neutralize a lot of the heavy forecheck playoff teams.
 
Ah gotcha. So you're saying replace a 4th liner (for instance) with an offensive ahler and utilize that ahler in a cherry picking role?
perhaps, but i think current 4-liners can play vital roles. call ups may function better as low cost replacements for lower quality but still expensive nhl offensive talent. their offensive abilities might not be worth the cap hit if the cherry picking strategy is providing goals for less money.
 
It wouldn’t be just adding skilled wingers, you’d need to design the whole team around this. 4 elite faceoff Cs, the best rebound control goalie in the league, big wingspan defensive D that can make a pass, and so on. If it’s not the +EV strategy you thought it would be, you’re stuck with a team that can’t do much else very well.

That said, guys like Kessel, Hagelin, Grabner and Nylander have stacked up a lot of points like this. The best case scenario version of this would be that it’s so effective that it forces other teams to play back and spam low danger shots which might neutralize a lot of the heavy forecheck playoff teams.
Could the 2010's bruins have won more cups with such a strategy? They had some key pieces to make it work. Is it fair to say they were underachievers?
 
Sorry, I was just meaning that worst case scenario, the cherry picker gives the other team a de facto powerplay. But playing the odds, the breakaways should outweigh whatever was lost. I really mean 5 on 5 play. It seems like we should see it a lot more.
A lot of wingers do this, already. Results are mixed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: pi314
i think teams could develop specialized 4 man d-zone postures that would aid in pursuing this strategy. but it wouldn't have to be full-time. the element of surprise might help make the strat work better.
How does this help your cherry picking strategy?

You want to elaborate this element of surprise? Is this high end talent AHL player actually a NHL player in disguise?
 
i dont know. but you have to factor in that these are skewed by lesser players that a cherry-picking strategy wouldn't be employing. i imagine it would end up more closely resembling shootout attempts.
Best know numbers if you are presenting a % based idea

Then you need %of stretch pass completion rate

Then average time it takes failed breawayee to get back into the zone / how long other team has a man up

Then about three or four other ones
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1989 and Pieck
My best stab at answering your question (since I don’t 100% understand your premise):

The easiest way to neutralize this is to have a player shadow the cherry picking winger. So not only do you largely negate that advantage, you create a 4v4 offensive zone situation which is advantageous to the offense and puts “team cherry picking” at a disadvantage.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Ad

Ad