Cherry picking from an intellectual perspective

Why don’t more wingers cheat up the ice to create breakaway chances? Power plays only convert about what, 20% of the time? And in those cases, it's a teams most talented offensive players approaching play with a scoring mindset. A skilled player’s breakaway success rate should be higher. The reward seems worth the defensive risk. Should a bottom dwelling team take a chance on a cheap, high talent AHL superstar and employ this kind of tactic?
It is actually an interesting concept if sprinkled in here and there. It could only be done with a group that were inherently penalty killers and the stretch man would need to be a breakaway specialist.

Even then teams will alert their D and one will retreat.. So you are left with 4 on 4 which is often advantage offense (most cases) in that teams have to go pure man to man which not many teams play the whole time in the d zone.

I would never have done it as a coach but it would be an innovative wrinkle if the circumstances were right.
 
Best know numbers if you are presenting a % based idea

Then you need %of stretch pass completion rate

Then average time it takes failed breawayee to get back into the zone / how long other team has a man up

Then about three or four other ones
yeah it's just tough to say. it stands to reason the percentages of all of these would skew higher as it becomes more of an established strategy and players who excel can be identified and properly trained as specialists.
 
My best stab at answering your question (since I don’t 100% understand your premise):

The easiest way to neutralize this is to have a player shadow the cherry picking winger. So not only do you largely negate that advantage, you create a 4v4 offensive zone situation which is advantageous to the offense and puts “team cherry picking” at a disadvantage.
perhaps this is when you send a second cherry picker
 
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Why don’t more wingers cheat up the ice to create breakaway chances? Power plays only convert about what, 20% of the time? And in those cases, it's a teams most talented offensive players approaching play with a scoring mindset. A skilled player’s breakaway success rate should be higher. The reward seems worth the defensive risk. Should a bottom dwelling team take a chance on a cheap, high talent AHL superstar and employ this kind of tactic?

There has been some discussion about what would happen if the NHL expanded to 5 more teams. Some say that this would make room for some of the skill guys in the AHL and Europe. But it probably wouldn't. All it would do is make even room for even more "2 way" tweeners.

Scoring will always be powerplay feasting and scoring on defensive mistakes
 
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yeah it's just tough to say. it stands to reason the percentages of all of these would skew higher as it becomes more of an established strategy and players who excel can be identified and properly trained as specialists.
My general assumption when adding everything up it would Trend towards less appealing than it first looks

Then you add in the factor of about 5 minutes it will take for teams to coach against this and we just get to watch 4 on 4 hockey
 
yeah he'll be wearing an nhl jersey and was probably even drafted. pretty good disguise
I think it happens a number of times in the season but most teams can’t execute it properly.

This strategy works against teams that’s aggressively forechecking. If the cherry picking team sees the press is coming they should have a set play to spring a player on a breakaway.

It happened in the cup final last playoff.
 
My general assumption when adding everything up it would Trend towards less appealing than it first looks

Then you add in the factor of about 5 minutes it will take for teams to coach against this and we just get to watch 4 on 4 hockey
as d-men have become more important focus points of offensive zone strategy, does it not make some sense to force them to vacate? and doesn't having a neutral zone winger available as an icing negating presence actually strengthen a teams ability to exit their own zone? would the 4 on 4 not be as dangerous as we currently think of it?
 
Why don’t more wingers cheat up the ice to create breakaway chances? Power plays only convert about what, 20% of the time? And in those cases, it's a teams most talented offensive players approaching play with a scoring mindset. A skilled player’s breakaway success rate should be higher. The reward seems worth the defensive risk. Should a bottom dwelling team take a chance on a cheap, high talent AHL superstar and employ this kind of tactic?
Because NHL head coaches understand that isn’t the calculus. Is the perspective “intellectual” or “ignorant”?
 
as d-men have become more important focus points of offensive zone strategy, does it not make some sense to force them to vacate? and doesn't having a neutral zone winger available as an icing negating presence actually strengthen a teams ability to exit their own zone? would the 4 on 4 not be as dangerous as we currently think of it?
vacate the dman? because they are more offensive? only if the following is true

have wingers become more important in their focus of defending down low to replicate a defenceman

i jsut don't see the validity in this as a concept because it would be so simply coached away
 
Because NHL head coaches understand that isn’t the calculus. Is the perspective “intellectual” or “ignorant”?
to dismiss this as ignorant would be to ignore the rich history of hockey’s evolution. the intellectual perspective isn’t about ignoring the calculus, it’s about redefining it. *tents fingers frasierly* if nhl coaches understanding were infallible, why do systems evolve at all? the exercise here is to ask... what if we’re optimizing for the wrong variables?
 
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20 years ago, if someone had asked whether NBA teams should shoot 3-pointers every possession, the thread would have looked about like this. Somewhere, a handful of guys were asking that question and they redesigned the entire game.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with the question, or any reason to jump down his throat about it. It’s completely fair to think outside the current trends and experiment with ideas that could uncover new opportunities.


My best stab at answering your question (since I don’t 100% understand your premise):

The easiest way to neutralize this is to have a player shadow the cherry picking winger. So not only do you largely negate that advantage, you create a 4v4 offensive zone situation which is advantageous to the offense and puts “team cherry picking” at a disadvantage.

^^^ this is a huge part of why it doesn’t happen.

I would take it a step farther and say you don’t actually need to shadow the cherry picker, you just need to cut him off from receiving a clean pass.

  1. The D can play significantly in front of him, and if they’re smart they’ll use the defensive blue line as an extra defender. That means they’ll deflect or intercept off the majority of those passes, which in turn means the D is going to have 30 feet of open ice to rev up a 5-on-4 counterattack. That’s really bad news for the opponent, worse than defending a PP because at least a PK unit has structure and usually clears the puck all 200 feet.
  2. In the event that the offensive team makes a pass to evade the D, it’s probably going to be directed toward the boards where the angles are highly unfavorable for a breakaway. It also means the path to the net is a lot longer than the lane up the middle of the ice. The defender has a straight-line sprint up the middle to recover, whereas the forward has to go chase the puck toward the boards or wherever, then turn back to the net. He’s going to end up in a partial-breakaway footrace at best, and those usually go nowhere.
  3. Most of all, the cherry picker has no support. NHL defensemen are very good in 1-on-1 situations. If it’s anything less than a clean breakaway, the defender is going to be right there on top of the puck. Without support, the cherry picker has nowhere to go.

This is why, at least in current philosophy, the game of hockey is organized around group rushes which create outnumbered situations. Even at 3v3, where everyone expected it to be nonstop breakaways back and forth, they quickly regressed into carefully working their way up the ice as a unit. It’s the most effective way to create an outnumbered situation where an offensive player will get a clean look. And to Hank’s point above, a cherry picker is basically gifting the opponent that outnumbered situation for an extended period in hopes of occasionally getting a very brief clean breakaway of his own. It tilts the odds entirely in the wrong direction.

BTW, all of this is the reason for the existence of the blue lines.
 
Best know numbers if you are presenting a % based idea

Then you need %of stretch pass completion rate

Then average time it takes failed breawayee to get back into the zone / how long other team has a man up

Then about three or four other ones
Yep, I’ve had the same thought as the OP before but really the percentages probably aren’t as simple as we think. Lots of variables at play
 
Yep, I’ve had the same thought as the OP before but really the percentages probably aren’t as simple as we think. Lots of variables at play
It would be a hell of an accomplishment to even get the data let alone then putting it together and analyzing it and trying to come up with some sort of relative weighting
 

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