Prospect Info: Charlie Stramel, C, 21st Overall, 2023 NHL Draft

[AKL]

And @Digitalbooya whether you want to admit it publicly or not, you do want to use his draft position to your "benefit", because the fact of the matter is, if he was a 7th round pick, with his production up to this point, no one would be talking about him at all. The only reason you still feel like you can talk about NHL potential or projecting with him is because he was a 1st round pick.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Okay lol

Where Stramel is as a player right now, the learning curve, the projection, whatever you want to call it, is that of an AHL player.

20 points in his third year with top six minutes and PP time wouldn't change that, because if you look at other players who have gone on to play in the NHL, even the bottom six players (or hopefuls) score more than that.

Draft position was brought up to show that his current production and projection is in fact lower than that of guys who were mid round picks, and went on to become fourth liners, as support for the idea that his current production has him projecting to be an AHL player.

It has nothing to do with draft position, I suspect you just didn't like the answer you got (from @Dr Jan Itor too btw, not just me)

So you both think it's realistic that Stramel's skillset is indicative of a 337% increase in production just solely based on increased role?

I definitely think 250% is a much better number if we are evaluating where he is as a player. It's still freaking 250%. That's huge for any player.

Yes, I truly did not know that you and Doc were that high on Stramel. That's certainly something.

 

[AKL]

So you both think it's realistic that Stramel's skillset is indicative of a 337% increase in production just solely based on increased role?

It's not about what I think is realistic for him to achieve, it's about what he needs to achieve for me to think he has any meaningful future as an NHLer. Like I said, I'm not lowering my standards just so Stramel can meet them.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I haven't given up hope. I'm not sure why, but I've always got Blake Wheeler vibes out of him.

Hockeys changed a bit, but Wheeler played USHL D+1, and wasn't PPG. D+2(What Stramel is about to do) he played D1 and got 23 points. Never was PPG in NCAA in the following 2 seasons. But became one in the NHL.

Sometimes it takes big guys time to learn how to use their bodies.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I haven't given up hope. I'm not sure why, but I've always got Blake Wheeler vibes out of him.

Hockeys changed a bit, but Wheeler played USHL D+1, and wasn't PPG. D+2(What Stramel is about to do) he played D1 and got 23 points. Never was PPG in NCAA in the following 2 seasons. But became one in the NHL.

Sometimes it takes big guys time to learn how to use their bodies.

Yep, this is the vibe I got from him this previous season. In the beginning of the year it was almost like he was afraid to drive the net. He lacked assertiveness - the word I used through this past season. It was getting better as the season went on, but still not where it needs to be.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

I haven't given up hope. I'm not sure why, but I've always got Blake Wheeler vibes out of him.

Hockeys changed a bit, but Wheeler played USHL D+1, and wasn't PPG. D+2(What Stramel is about to do) he played D1 and got 23 points. Never was PPG in NCAA in the following 2 seasons. But became one in the NHL.

Sometimes it takes big guys time to learn how to use their bodies.

Pretty valid kind of comparison as big body players that were or are learning to use their tools. I hated Wheeler in college, one of my least favorite Gophers at the time, he obviously turned out pretty great, but it was rough for a while.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So you both think it's realistic that Stramel's skillset is indicative of a 337% increase in production just solely based on increased role?

I definitely think 250% is a much better number if we are evaluating where he is as a player. It's still freaking 250%. That's huge for any player.

Yes, I truly did not know that you and Doc were that high on Stramel. That's certainly something.

Isn't part of the argument that his production is/was being suppressed by his role/usage? So your % increases are kind of artificially high.

Take a ballpark shot what you would've expected his production to be last year if he got that top 6/PP time at Wisconsin. If that's not at least close to ~20 points, then that means he would've been a massive boat anchor and wouldn't have deserved that time/that spot/that role anyway.

Now take that and add a year of age/development. That's where I'm coming up with the .75 and I feel like I'm giving him a pretty massive benefit of the doubt doing so.

He would've been 9th in scoring for forwards on MSU last year with 20 points, by the way.

 

[57special]

I would say that he has work to do just to be an AHL'er. Right now, his size and physicality is his strength. Scoring and scoring skills are lagging far behind, and skating is somewhere in between.

Sounds harsh, but he simply hasn't shown much in the past two years. Right now he seems like a 4 year NCAA player who can play in the ECHL. If he had been drafted in the 4th round, no one would be talking about him. Getting drafted in the 1st will add pressure on him, but also afford opportunities that a later round pick would have to earn.

 

[AKL]

Isn't part of the argument that his production is/was being suppressed by his role/usage? So your % increases are kind of artificially high.

Take a ballpark shot what you would've expected his production to be last year if he got that top 6/PP time at Wisconsin. If that's not at least close to ~20 points, then that means he would've been a massive boat anchor and wouldn't have deserved that time/that spot/that role anyway.

Now take that and add a year of age/development. That's where I'm coming up with the .75 and I feel like I'm giving him a pretty massive benefit of the doubt doing so.

He would've been 9th in scoring for forwards on MSU last year with 20 points, by the way.

This is the part he couldn't grasp last night. If he's getting that usage, .75 points per game, or 27+ points, is the expectation, and should be easy for him to achieve if he's earned that usage.

But I'm not the one asking for "realistic expectations" in a hypothetical underlying assumption I made up, so who knows what he's looking for.

Sounds harsh, but he simply hasn't shown much in the past two years. Right now he seems like a 4 year NCAA player who can play in the ECHL. If he had been drafted in the 4th round, no one would be talking about him. Getting drafted in the 1st will add pressure on him, but also afford opportunities that a later round pick would have to earn.

Said this last night too. You can't choose to ignore his draft position and then still talk about what his projection as an NHL player is. The only reason he's still relevant in conversation is because he was a first round pick and the expectation for him is to become an NHL player, because he was a first round pick. Even Filip Johansson had a period where the expectation was that he becomes a bottom pair NHL D.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Isn't part of the argument that his production is/was being suppressed by his role/usage? So your % increases are kind of artificially high.

Take a ballpark shot what you would've expected his production to be last year if he got that top 6/PP time at Wisconsin. If that's not at least close to ~20 points, then that means he would've been a massive boat anchor and wouldn't have deserved that time/that spot/that role anyway.

Now take that and add a year of age/development. That's where I'm coming up with the .75 and I feel like I'm giving him a pretty massive benefit of the doubt doing so.

He would've been 9th in scoring for forwards on MSU last year with 20 points, by the way.

The net front guy on PP 1 for Wisconsin was Carson Bantle (19pts in 39gp). He was a middle 6 player for Wisconsin.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The net front guy on PP 1 for Wisconsin was Carson Bantle (19pts in 39gp). He was a middle 6 player for Wisconsin.

What are his pro prospects?

 

[BagHead]

The net front guy on PP 1 for Wisconsin was Carson Bantle (19pts in 39gp). He was a middle 6 player for Wisconsin.

That is a good sign that he wouldn't have hit 27 points no matter what on the Badgers. But Michigan State is a different team, and scoring rates are different on that team, so higher scoring should be expected.

This is an imperfect scaling method, but Bantle was 8th in scoring on the Badgers at 19 points. 8th on the Spartans was 25 points. I think it's reasonable to say that the expectation for Stramel is around 25 points if he plays that role, and the roster doesn't turn over so much that it greatly alters scoring rates.
It's probably even more reasonable to say that the expectation is that he ranks at least 8th on his team in scoring. That would match what he did in his Freshman year in terms of scoring placement (12 points on one team equals 25 points on another if viewed this way).

Personally, I would not be shocked to see him move up to around 6th. Doing that would make the raw scoring numbers look silly, extremely low one year and a huge spike the next, even though his true improvement could be marginal in comparison.

 

[Digitalbooya]

That is a good sign that he wouldn't have hit 27 points no matter what on the Badgers. But Michigan State is a different team, and scoring rates are different on that team, so higher scoring should be expected.

This is an imperfect scaling method, but Bantle was 8th in scoring on the Badgers at 19 points. 8th on the Spartans was 25 points. I think it's reasonable to say that the expectation for Stramel is around 25 points if he plays that role, and the roster doesn't turn over so much that it greatly alters scoring rates.
It's probably even more reasonable to say that the expectation is that he ranks at least 8th on his team in scoring. That would match what he did in his Freshman year in terms of scoring placement (12 points on one team equals 25 points on another if viewed this way).

Personally, I would not be shocked to see him move up to around 6th. Doing that would make the raw scoring numbers look silly, extremely low one year and a huge spike the next, even though his true improvement could be marginal in comparison.

Bingo.

I have extreme levels of doubt that Stramel will replace anyone on the top unit for MSU. Watched a couple highlights trying to figure out who the net front guy is for them. It’s either Dorwart or Larson from what I can tell. Both had 30+ points last year.

 

[57special]

Stramel brings to mind the old Oscar Wilde quote;

"The only worse thing than being talked about, is NOT being talked about."

 

[BagHead]

Stramel brings to mind the old Oscar Wilde quote;

"The only worse thing than being talked about, is NOT being talked about."

No worries there. If he busts, he's got at least four more years of being talked about here. Two while he's still a Wild prospect, and then two more while we bitch about Guerin''s draft to each other.

 

[Wabit]

No worries there. If he busts, he's got at least four more years of being talked about here. Two while he's still a Wild prospect, and then two more while we bitch about Guerin''s draft to each other.

You're underestimating the time on the Guerin's drafting. Phillips still comes up from time to time and that draft was 14 years ago.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So, unless I'm missing something, we're thinking that good progression for Stramel is to produce as much in his 3rd year as we think he might've in his 2nd year had he been put in a role similar to (what we think) his 3rd year is going to be?

Then maybe he can get to .75 ppg in his 4th year?

 

[keppel146]

You're underestimating the time on the Guerin's drafting. Phillips still comes up from time to time and that draft was 14 years ago.

The Stramel pick is worse imo. Higher draft slot being one of them. At least Phillips racked up points, where it was obvious Stramel has no offensive upside.

 

[Digitalbooya]

So, unless I'm missing something, we're thinking that good progression for Stramel is to produce as much in his 3rd year as we think he might've in his 2nd year had he been put in a role similar to (what we think) his 3rd year is going to be?

Then maybe he can get to .75 ppg in his 4th year?

I just want something that shows he is moving in the right direction. Production isn’t the end all be all on if I’m happy with his season. He’s never been a huge point producer. But if he’s not producing 25-30+ points in a ~ 38 game season, then he needs to stand out at something else (PK, faceoffs, defensive shutdown guy).

 

[Digitalbooya]

The Stramel pick is worse imo. Higher draft slot being one of them. At least Phillips racked up points, where it was obvious Stramel has no offensive upside.

Not even close. Stramel at least has the body and game to be an effective bottom 6 guy with a chance at being more. Phillips leached off of Huberdeau in the Q. His offense was never that good, as evidenced by his AHL totals, and he didn’t have the game or speed to play any role at the NHL level.

 

[Spurgeon]

The Stramel pick is worse imo. Higher draft slot being one of them. At least Phillips racked up points, where it was obvious Stramel has no offensive upside.

Stramel is significantly worst because even a casual hockey fan would’ve drafted a better player. Sure would be nice having another forward prospect in our pool that just put up 60P in 36GP in the NCAA…. Such an obvious pick that Guerin somehow managed to screw up.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Stramel is significantly worst because even a casual hockey fan would’ve drafted a better player. Sure would be nice having another forward prospect in our pool that just put up 60P in 36GP in the NCAA…. Such an obvious pick that Guerin somehow managed to screw up.

Brackett too.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I really do hope he ends up good. I just can't completely subvert what I think by what I hope.

 

[AKL]

Stramel is significantly worst because even a casual hockey fan would’ve drafted a better player. Sure would be nice having another forward prospect in our pool that just put up 60P in 36GP in the NCAA…. Such an obvious pick that Guerin somehow managed to screw up.

I didn't agree with the Stramel pick, don't think Perreault is the slam dunk you're making him out to be. He has a ton of quirks in his game that might prevent him from becoming an NHL player, let alone a star NHL player. He's also had the benefit of playing with Will Smith and Ryan Leonard for the relevant parts of his career. And Cutter Gauthier was in the mix at times too.

 

[AKL]

I really do hope he ends up good. I just can't completely subvert what I think by what I hope.

Yeah I wanna be crystal clear here, I'm not saying he can't become a good player in some capacity for this team, I'm not cheering against him, and I hope he exceeds all expectations, all I'm saying is he hasn't given me any reason to believe he will be that player, so far. Maybe he really is a late bloomer and can become a Greenway level player or better. I'm just not holding my breath until he gives me a reason to believe he can.

Jordan Greenway btw, another big bodied power forward who scored 26 points his first year in the NCAA, 31 his second year, and 35 his third year. Something Stramel isn't close to yet.