Player Discussion Charlie Coyle

[PlayMakers]

Will he succeed or fail as the #1c?

What do you project his point totals to be, and why?

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[MarchysNoseKnows]

I’m more interested in who takes Nosek’s 90.9% DZ starts next year

 

[UncleRico]

I’m more interested in who takes Nosek’s 90.9% DZ starts next year

Agreed I had a similar thought the other day when someone mentioned kuraly. Bruins 4th line center has been the source of some insane defensive zone deployments the last 5(?) or so years. Going to be very interesting who takes that role or if it will be a combined effort.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Agreed I had a similar thought the other day when someone mentioned kuraly. Bruins 4th line center has been the source of some insane defensive zone deployments the last 5(?) or so years. Going to be very interesting who takes that role or if it will be a combined effort.

Coyle was 71% too. It’s there for Beecher’s taking. Just has to beat out an NHL journeyman.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

Anything can happen, but for the long haul putting a puck possession righty center (albeit a good one) with the leagues best goal scorer would not produce the best outcome.
Especially since Coyle is also a righty, and he's no Krejci at distributing to his RW on his backhand.
Zacha makes more sense.

Yeah I don't see Coyle and Pasta as something that could work out over a long period of time. They don't seem compatible at all. I see Charlie most with DeBrusk, which has shown some decent things in the past, and then maybe JvR, perhaps some Boqvist and a little Marchand in patches.

Coyle has close to top 6 talent, and he's had some really good stretches, but he's never been able to perform at a high level as a top 6 forward consistently. At 31, I don't think that's going to happen now. To me the most realistic goal is he plays as a 2C on a line that is defensively solid and wears opponents down while still posing enough of an offensive threat that they have to be taken seriously. Maybe not a high points total, but a decent plus/minus and a role that allows the top line to play with some more freedom. I think that's achievable, but far from guaranteed.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

He is categorically not a #1C or a top 2\3 in the league #2C. He is a low ranked #2, elite #3C. I am a big Coyle fan but realistic in how he stands league wide.

One very important thing overlooked is his durability, as he has missed THREE GAMES since coming to Boston in the 2019-20 season. That is very important with Bergeron and Krejci retiring.

 

[NDiesel]

He is categorically not a #1C or a top 2\3 in the league #2C. He is a low ranked #2, elite #3C. I am a big Coyle fan but realistic in how he stands league wide.

One very important thing overlooked is his durability, as he has missed THREE GAMES since coming to Boston in the 2019-20 season. That is very important with Bergeron and Krejci retiring.

Honestly this is a massive point about Coyle. We like to complain about injury prone guys but never give kudos to a guy like him who just somehow rarely gets injured. It's huge come playoff time.

 

[DKH]

I’m more interested in who takes Nosek’s 90.9% DZ starts next year

Nosek had one heck of a year - Ballsy signing by Fitzy

 

[KrejciMVP]

center depth has been such a stength for Boston over the years, against the contending teams and playoff bubble teams the mismatch is going to be big. Until the Bruins draft a new center core this will be the achilles heal. patchwork just wont do

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

Marchand - Zacha - Pastrnak
DeBrusk - Coyle - Boqvist
JVR - Geekie - Frederic
Lucic - Brown - Lauko

- I think whatever line features Pastrnak is your de facto top line. I also imagine the plan is to keep him with Zacha. So by default, that makes Coyle your #2 C

- I originally had this with the two top LW switched (helps with balancing), but I just imagine Coyle driving Marchand nuts after over a decade of partnering with Bergy and working off of his quick, smart decision-making. Maybe Marchand/Coyle could develop that chemistry, but I honestly don't imagine it being a long-term fit.

- Boqvist despite being a LH shot, strikes me as being more effective at RW. Pulling the puck inside to let off his quick wrister and playing a puck carrier role, zone-entry type (similar to Mojo) with Coyle. DeBrusk can find high-danger areas to lean into to help capitalize on his ability to finish in tight.

- JVR plays a veteran role on the third (better place for him than the top six at this stage in his career) while Geekie and Frederic switch off RW to C depending on which side of the ice the face off takes place

- Lauko has earned a chance to play full-time and his speed will be necessary element on a fourth that is physical and infuriating to play against, but is otherwise lead-footed.

What none of this addresses is the defensive zone starts, but frankly I'm not sure the forwards as constituted allow for the crazy deployment we are used to. I feel as though we are likely to see more of a balance across all four units.

 

[loosemoose]

Coyle will most likely get blown out of the building as a 1C. Last three year his relative xGF% has been -9, -8 and -5 mainly against 3rd line matchups. You could kinda see that in 22 playoffs against Canes, when him and Haula were 2C and 3C and they Canes walked all over them.

 

[bb74]

If Coyle is the #1 on this roster and Monty doesn't do a 180° and turn the B's in the the 95 Devils defensive scheme, we are in for a world of hurt.

Coyle is a good middle 6 C and has been for some time, but there is a reason that despite the depth on the roster and his wings the past years here that he's capped at below 50 pts per 82 games. He lacks the vision, passing and creativity on offence top be a top line player or help top line creative players like Pasta and Marchand produce to their potential IMO. He's like Carlo in some ways, in that he is a recovery and possession monster but once the puck get's on his stick the game speeds up as opposed to slowing down. Also like Carlo in that he is a gym rat, a well respected guy in the room, and a good teammate.

Before generalities create too much emotion on my take, I'll illustrate my point. Looking at the past 2 years the majority of his primary and secondary assists have come from short - less than wall to dot distance - passes within what looks to me as a majority triangle type offence where the wing will rotate into the slot for the pass/shot. Very little of the assist production was on cross ice or more risky / elusive / creative stretch passing in the O zone (see Bert's short lived chemistry with Pasta). I understand that he is playing "what is being given to him" both in terms of D and the O zone system but I believe he is playing that because it is to his strengths and how the coaches are setting up the game plan for him. Rarely do you see him try to rotate the O zone using the far D to try and reset.

For the goal production you see a somewhat similar dynamic with a meat and potato game of mid to low slot shooting either off the rush or in pass/shoot/rebound situations. Nothing wrong with meat and potato, just you don't see him backing up the D even if he does have patience to wait for screens on the goalie.

Like I said earlier, good middle 6 guy playing an efficient meat and potato game, and getting good production with that on a stacked roster. To project a yay or nay for Coyle as a replacement level #1C on the 23-24 B's you have to consider that in the context of the quality and depth of the new roster... The 23-24 roster will be a full top 6 line short from last years' squad, forcing everyone to play into roles with greater checking focus from the opposition. That is a major factor into projecting the team's performance as it's so much easier when you can roll 4 lines than 2 and then have a cliff of a drop on quality depth...

Marchard could potentially play the O-zone entry role that Hall did on Coyle's wing but Coyle has nowhere near the vision and passing of Bergeron for either March or Pasta. If you cant make that low to high cross ice pass and you force the puck on Pasta's stick it takes away so much of that Ovie'esque one timer from the dot - take that away and he's a 40 goal guy, not a 50+ guy... It could be a forced fit due to roster depth shortage but I see a LOT of downside if he is cast into that role.

It takes all types to win and Coyle is one of those types, just not for first line duty with guys like Pasta.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

If Coyle is the #1 on this roster and Monty doesn't do a 180° and turn the B's in the the 95 Devils defensive scheme, we are in for a world of hurt.

Coyle is a good middle 6 C and has been for some time, but there is a reason that despite the depth on the roster and his wings the past years here that he's capped at below 50 pts per 82 games. He lacks the vision, passing and creativity on offence top be a top line player or help top line creative players like Pasta and Marchand produce to their potential IMO. He's like Carlo in some ways, in that he is a recovery and possession monster but once the puck get's on his stick the game speeds up as opposed to slowing down. Also like Carlo in that he is a gym rat, a well respected guy in the room, and a good teammate.

Before generalities create too much emotion on my take, I'll illustrate my point. Looking at the past 2 years the majority of his primary and secondary assists have come from short - less than wall to dot distance - passes within what looks to me as a majority triangle type offence where the wing will rotate into the slot for the pass/shot. Very little of the assist production was on cross ice or more risky / elusive / creative stretch passing in the O zone (see Bert's short lived chemistry with Pasta). I understand that he is playing "what is being given to him" both in terms of D and the O zone system but I believe he is playing that because it is to his strengths and how the coaches are setting up the game plan for him. Rarely do you see him try to rotate the O zone using the far D to try and reset.

For the goal production you see a somewhat similar dynamic with a meat and potato game of mid to low slot shooting either off the rush or in pass/shoot/rebound situations. Nothing wrong with meat and potato, just you don't see him backing up the D even if he does have patience to wait for screens on the goalie.

Like I said earlier, good middle 6 guy playing an efficient meat and potato game, and getting good production with that on a stacked roster. To project a yay or nay for Coyle as a replacement level #1C on the 23-24 B's you have to consider that in the context of the quality and depth of the new roster... The 23-24 roster will be a full top 6 line short from last years' squad, forcing everyone to play into roles with greater checking focus from the opposition. That is a major factor into projecting the team's performance as it's so much easier when you can roll 4 lines than 2 and then have a cliff of a drop on quality depth...

Marchard could potentially play the O-zone entry role that Hall did on Coyle's wing but Coyle has nowhere near the vision and passing of Bergeron for either March or Pasta. If you cant make that low to high cross ice pass and you force the puck on Pasta's stick it takes away so much of that Ovie'esque one timer from the dot - take that away and he's a 40 goal guy, not a 50+ guy... It could be a forced fit due to roster depth shortage but I see a LOT of downside if he is cast into that role.

It takes all types to win and Coyle is one of those types, just not for first line duty with guys like Pasta.

This is a really good synopsis of Coyle.

Most forwards 6:03-220 and over tend to be meat & potatoes type players. They lack the quickness and deftness to make the deft plays like Bergeron or Krejci. Those that do are superstars or elite level players, like Draisaitl.

Coyle for a guy 6:03 - 220 does have decent hands to help offset his lack of creativity and does protect the puck exceptionally well.

 

[PlayMakers]

Coyle will most likely get blown out of the building as a 1C. Last three year his relative xGF% has been -9, -8 and -5 mainly against 3rd line matchups.

I don't know if your GF% numbers are right. According to Hockeyreference, Coyle was +2.3 last year and +9.8 the year before. Charlie Coyle Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Also, don't know why you think he had poor matchups. Coyle had 71% Dzone starts. He frequently had to go against the other team's best lines and had to do so from his own end.

 

[loosemoose]

I don't know if your GF% numbers are right. According to Hockeyreference, Coyle was +2.3 last year and +9.8 the year before. Charlie Coyle Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Also, don't know why you think he had poor matchups. Coyle had 71% Dzone starts. He frequently had to go against the other team's best lines and had to do so from his own end.

Specifically talking about team relative 5v5 expected goal differential, not just GF%. Different sites have slightly different numbers (in similar ballpark), but for example Natural Stattrick has him at -9.71, -6.81, -3.49 for the past tree years. His relative-to-teammates goal differentials are even worse. I haven't seen his quality of competition numbers though.

 

[PlayMakers]

Coyle is a good middle 6 C and has been for some time, but there is a reason that despite the depth on the roster and his wings the past years here that he's capped at below 50 pts per 82 games. He lacks the vision, passing and creativity on offence top be a top line player or help top line creative players like Pasta and Marchand produce to their potential IMO.

I disagree with the bolded. I think the reason he's capped below 50 is PP time.

When you look at most (what I'd call 'regular') top6 players, they average around 35-40 even strength points per season. What gets them over the 50 point cap is power play time.

Horvat? 38 even strength points.
Nelson? 39 even strength points.
Cirelli? 36 even strength points.
Schenn? 39 even strength points.
Dubois? 40 even strength points.
Hertl? 42 even strength points.
Hopkins? 38 even strength points.
Bennett? 31 even strength points.
JT Miller? 40 even strength points.
Lindholm? 37 even strength points.
Kreider? 33 even strength points.

Coyle averages 34 even strength points, and had 40 last year. Coyle had more ES points than Bergeron, Lindholm, Karlsson, Reinhart, Kadri, Seguin, Danault... and was 1 point behind guys like Tavares, Hertl and JT Miller. I also think it's safe to say the players on that list play with more productive players. Coyle had 1 year with Hall, but before that it was Craig Smith, Danton Heinen, a rookie Frederic, a rookie Bjork, Foligno, Steen, McLaughlin...

So for me, I don't buy that he doesn't have the talent to produce like a top6 center because we've seen it; the hands, the poise, and the stats bear that out (top50 in ES points last year despite 71% DZ starts). The key to him cracking 50 (and beyond) is getting on that first power play unit.

 

[Blowfish]

I disagree with the bolded. I think the reason he's capped below 50 is PP time.

When you look at most (what I'd call 'regular') top6 players, they average around 35-40 even strength points per season. What gets them over the 50 point cap is power play time.

Horvat? 38 even strength points.
Nelson? 39 even strength points.
Cirelli? 36 even strength points.
Schenn? 39 even strength points.
Dubois? 40 even strength points.
Hertl? 42 even strength points.
Hopkins? 38 even strength points.
Bennett? 31 even strength points.
JT Miller? 40 even strength points.
Lindholm? 37 even strength points.
Kreider? 33 even strength points.

Coyle averages 34 even strength points, and had 40 last year. Coyle had more ES points than Bergeron, Lindholm, Karlsson, Reinhart, Kadri, Seguin, Danault... and was 1 point behind guys like Tavares, Hertl and JT Miller. I also think it's safe to say the players on that list play with more productive players. Coyle had 1 year with Hall, but before that it was Craig Smith, Danton Heinen, a rookie Frederic, a rookie Bjork, Foligno, Steen, McLaughlin...

So for me, I don't buy that he doesn't have the talent to produce like a top6 center because we've seen it; the hands, the poise, and the stats bear that out (top50 in ES points last year despite 71% DZ starts). The key to him cracking 50 (and beyond) is getting on that first power play unit.

Wow how can you argue that? Per usual excellent stuff PM.

 

[PlayMakers]

Specifically talking about team relative 5v5 expected goal differential, not just GF%. Different sites have slightly different numbers (in similar ballpark), but for example Natural Stattrick has him at -9.71, -6.81, -3.49 for the past tree years. His relative-to-teammates goal differentials are even worse. I haven't seen his quality of competition numbers though.

Yeah, I'd be curious to hear what someone better versed in analytics thinks of relative numbers when you take into account zone starts and roles. Bergeron gets 60% OZ starts with Marchand and McAvoy. Krejci gets 65% Ozone starts with Pasta and Lindholm. While Coyle gets 71% Dzone starts with Frederic and Forbort.

Also, I'm a fan of analytics but I think we use them incorrectly when we try to take past numbers and apply them to how a player will fare in a different role or on a different team. Those stats (you posted) tell us how he did in the role he was used with the players he played with. Naturally, the numbers will be different if you change his role and who he plays with. The change could be good or bad, and we won't know until we see it, but I have a hard time thinking his numbers will be worse playing with better players and given more offensive opportunities.

 

[bb74]

I disagree with the bolded. I think the reason he's capped below 50 is PP time.

When you look at most (what I'd call 'regular') top6 players, they average around 35-40 even strength points per season. What gets them over the 50 point cap is power play time.

Horvat? 38 even strength points.
Nelson? 39 even strength points.
Cirelli? 36 even strength points.
Schenn? 39 even strength points.
Dubois? 40 even strength points.
Hertl? 42 even strength points.
Hopkins? 38 even strength points.
Bennett? 31 even strength points.
JT Miller? 40 even strength points.
Lindholm? 37 even strength points.
Kreider? 33 even strength points.

Coyle averages 34 even strength points, and had 40 last year. Coyle had more ES points than Bergeron, Lindholm, Karlsson, Reinhart, Kadri, Seguin, Danault... and was 1 point behind guys like Tavares, Hertl and JT Miller. I also think it's safe to say the players on that list play with more productive players. Coyle had 1 year with Hall, but before that it was Craig Smith, Danton Heinen, a rookie Frederic, a rookie Bjork, Foligno, Steen, McLaughlin...

So for me, I don't buy that he doesn't have the talent to produce like a top6 center because we've seen it; the hands, the poise, and the stats bear that out (top50 in ES points last year despite 71% DZ starts). The key to him cracking 50 (and beyond) is getting on that first power play unit.

Look, I like Coyle and think he is a stud #3 on a deep team. Can spot as a #2 but in no way is a #1. The thread question is "Coyle #1 C Predictions" so that is what I was responding to. I respect the digging on stats and comps and actually appreciate that as it allows for an adult discussion / debate as opposed to a lot of the deaf/dumb/blind reactionary stuff here when one side has a different view than the other, but I digress...

In my view Coyle is a very good defensive possession C that lacks in passing vision/passing pace, speed at reading options, and shot velocity. Very good skating, puck control, defensive stick. When I say "lacking" I'm not saying he's a tweener in that regard AT ALL, just that 3-5% off what a true #1C has in the NHL but that makes all the difference if slotted in as a #1. That's why I attempted to qualify it with the re-look on all his 2021, 2022, 2023 production on goals and assists which at least for me clarified the position and how he created or benefited from the movement and decision making on the ice.

As for the list, what almost all of the guys on the list you put forward have that Coyle doesn't is either that read option and passing speed - Hertl, Lindholm for 2, or a significantly better shot allowing them to get above/outside the dots and release and thereby create space for the 2nd and 3rd options - Kreider, Horvat, Nelson, etc.

I don't doubt that Coyle could land more points as a #1 C with Marchand and Pasta riding shotgun, but what I was trying to get across is there is downside to that because I don't see his passing and shot allowing that unit to maximize the potential of Pasta for the one timer and Marchand's waterbug movement in the slot. I don't think Coyle has the vision to feed them the puck as a #1 unit C so it's paying Peter to pay Paul IMO even if he got 70. Nothing I see in his game suggests otherwise but that's not a criticism of what others may see, just a PoV.

 

[KnightofBoston]

22 goals 42 assists

If he centers the top line all year sure but I imagine there will be a lot of movement. I like Charlie Coyle but I have a hard time believing he’ll beat his career high by 8 points 7 years after he achieved that mark

20 goals 35 assists seems more reasonable as a hopeful projection with the likelihood Zacha gets more minutes and geekie bounces around

I’d like to add too that the phrasing of thag poll option should probably include “all the time”, he will likely play with 88 and 63 at some point

Personally I’d like to see Zacha and Pasta together and see who can fight for that top left spot and then spread out the firepower by putting DeBrusk Marchand and Coyle together, whoever is clicking that night gets more minutes. No true number 1 unless someone surprises and can play with Zacha and pasta to a level that befits their abilities

 

[EverettMike]

“I can do 12 months' work in 11 months, but not 12.” ---Louis D. Brandeis

It is very possible more ice time might make Coyle less effective overall. And any gains he gets from increased ice time, even on the PP, might be off set by playing against much tougher competition. The greatest defensive forward in history just left. The toughest matchups will now be thrust on Coyle.

 

[DKH]

center depth has been such a stength for Boston over the years, against the contending teams and playoff bubble teams the mismatch is going to be big. Until the Bruins draft a new center core this will be the achilles heal. patchwork just wont do

They drafted or signed 7 in last 36 months many their best prospects

Sweens & Company been on fire

Zacha
Merkulov
Beecher
Locmelis
Poitras
Mac
Geekie

Hockey is my third sport but Math is my second class and that’s 7 and a couple are succeeding in NHL

When Stan Lee created his super hero’s in Marvel he gave them a specific power but not multiple

The Bruins have the best combination of wins and playoff appearances since 2007-8

When you are playing to win you aren’t building a top farm system who’s foundation is comprised on high picks and a lot of them

I know Bruins fans want a top everything not usually something you see often

 

[4ORRBRUIN]

They drafted or signed 7 in last 36 months many their best prospects

Sweens & Company been on fire

Zacha
Merkulov
Beecher
Locmelis
Poitras
Mac
Geekie

Hockey is my third sport but Math is my second class and that’s 7 and a couple are succeeding in NHL

When Stan Lee created his super hero’s in Marvel he gave them a specific power but not multiple

The Bruins have the best combination of wins and playoff appearances since 2007-8

When you are playing to win you aren’t building a top farm system who’s foundation is comprised on high picks and a lot of them

I know Bruins fans want a top everything not usually something you see often

Terrific post

 

[KrejciMVP]

They drafted or signed 7 in last 36 months many their best prospects

Sweens & Company been on fire

Zacha
Merkulov
Beecher
Locmelis
Poitras
Mac
Geekie

Hockey is my third sport but Math is my second class and that’s 7 and a couple are succeeding in NHL

When Stan Lee created his super hero’s in Marvel he gave them a specific power but not multiple

The Bruins have the best combination of wins and playoff appearances since 2007-8

When you are playing to win you aren’t building a top farm system who’s foundation is comprised on high picks and a lot of them

I know Bruins fans want a top everything not usually something you see often

good summary but I don't see anything there close to east contender unless 1 emerges somehow. water will find its level, Chicago gets Berdard, Bruins need a lotto pick for the next generation post Krejci and Bergy. Until this happens it purgatory unless they hit jackpot like Detroit did with Datzyuk

 

[BruinDust]

They drafted or signed 7 in last 36 months many their best prospects

Sweens & Company been on fire

Zacha
Merkulov
Beecher
Locmelis
Poitras
Mac
Geekie

This summer and the "Elias Lindholm/Bruins must obtain a No.1 C pronto" debate reminds me a lot of the summer of 2016 where instead of Lindholm and No.1 C, it was a top right-shot D and Jacob Trouba was all the rage around here.

8-9 months later Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo were basically your 1st and 2nd pair RD and have been ever since.

Might be blasphemy, but look how quickly the Habs turned around their center ice situation the off-season of 2018. Arguably the worst center ice depth in the NHL at the end of 2017-18. A few months later and all of sudden they were sitting there with Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, a 25-year old Max Domi.

Things can change quickly.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

“I can do 12 months' work in 11 months, but not 12.” ---Louis D. Brandeis

It is very possible more ice time might make Coyle less effective overall. And any gains he gets from increased ice time, even on the PP, might be off set by playing against much tougher competition. The greatest defensive forward in history just left. The toughest matchups will now be thrust on Coyle.

Cannot overestimate the effect of that.