Chances America Overtakes Canada in the Next 50 years?

[NyQuil]

50 years from now hockey won't exist and neither will the USA or Canada

I’m not a fan of the new 3 on 3 Thunderdome rules during the 3rd quadrant.

There are too many chainsaws to go around as it is.

They either have to put more sledge hammers in the central ring or bring in a few more prisoners.

Not to mention, the statistical records are all messed up.

 

[NVious]

We have heard this since 1996 and I am not sure the US are any closer to overtaking Canada now than they were then.

People will look at them winning 2 WJHC's ignoring the Canadian wins before that and ignoring that Canada was missing players- Bedard, Celebrini etc. that would have had them winning those tournaments easily.

It may be possible but no way is it definite or even likely. Even though the 4 nations was close it was still a Canadian win, just like the previous best on best tournaments have been recently.

Since then the USA has only gotten better, the teams are basically neck and neck at this point. With Hockey continuing to gain popularity and America's population surging, it makes sense that America can be basically equal to or even surpass Canada.

Close is an understatement, the teams went 1-1 with a total score of 5-5, even in world juniors it's 4-4 the last 10 years for Canada USA in terms of wins.

Even looking at the draft, America went from:
0 1st overalls 50 years ago+
3 from 75-00
5 from 01-24

Look at awards:

No Norris wins before 90s
1 in 96
2 since then (maybe 3 this year)

0 Harts until 2015, 2 (counting that one) since then

0 Vezina before 1980s, 2 then to 2000, 5 (basically 6) since then

2 Lindsays last 10 years, never before won

1 Rocket in 96, 3 since then with Matthews likely to win a few more

Very clear progression for America. From Modano/Gretzky to LA impact to the 96 world cup impact to the expansion impact to the success in the world juniors impact, America has been on an upward trajectory that isn't slowing and it's the first time that on paper Canada wasn't a massive favorite, if at all even a favorite, considering the holes in net.

 

[Golden_Jet]

 

[Summer Rose]

A lot can happen in 50 years and we Americans shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. The best we can realistically hope for in sports that another country dominates is to catch up to them and be competitive with them, and while it is quite close between us and Canada right now, the results at the senior level still speak for themselves. Another thing I’d like to point out is for us to eclipse Canada, they’d have to simultaneously take a not-insignificant step back. Canada could very well just stay the course and that would make us just on par with them, not ahead of them.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Impossible the mere thought is ridiculous.

If it was going to happen it would have already

 

[Dirty Mind]

Why do Americans always refer to the results of Canada vs US as being “1-1”? As if it’s a “tie” lol. Like you know damn well a round robin game isn’t in the same league as a gold medal game. Not even the same stratosphere!

It was 1-0 for Canada, for the gold medal, full stop. Trying to shoehorn in a 3-1 round robin win as being even a bit close in importance is of utmost hilarity.

 

[NVious]

Impossible the mere thought is ridiculous.

If it was going to happen it would have already

America's even somewhat relevant Hockey history goes back to Gretzky going to LA, before that Hockey was an extremely fringe. Your logic goes nowhere fast considering Gretzky/expansion/world junior success are new things

Why do Americans always refer to the results of Canada vs US as being“1-1”? As if it’s a “tie” LMAO. Like you know damn well a round robin game isn’t in the same league as a gold medal game. Not even the same stratosphere!

It was 1-0 for Canada, for the gold medal, full stop. Trying to shoehorn in a 3-1 round robin win as being even a bit close in importance is of utmost hilarity.

I'm not American, just fair, Canada won when it mattered, but it was extremely close the whole way (unlike the past as well) and America could've easily won if Binnington didn't play out of his mind.

 

[Mattb124]

Given that hockey is 1st sport in Canada, and like 123234th sport in USA, I'd bet "extremaly unlikely" option.

You might want to look at youth hockey participation trends in Canada and the U.S. The U.S. is coming on as a hockey country and participation in Canada is declining.

 

[Golden_Jet]

You might want to look at youth hockey participation trends in Canada and the U.S. The U.S. is coming on as a hockey country and participation in Canada is declining.

Yes if you look at the numbers, they are similar, then consider one has 10x the population to make it similar.

 

[BruinsFan37]

The trend is that US-born players will outnumber Canadians in the NHL in the 2030s, so with a 50-year time frame it's likely inevitable.

And if you go team-by-team, in a few cases, its already happened.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

...you kids and your optimism...thinking we'll actually be here in 50 years...

 

[Don John]

Since then the USA has only gotten better, the teams are basically neck and neck at this point. With Hockey continuing to gain popularity and America's population surging, it makes sense that America can be basically equal to or even surpass Canada.

Neck and Neck is a massive stretch, this one tournament it was close, but the two before that wasn't close at all. Canada still has by far the most players, by the highest % of elite players.

The US still has nobody to match Crosby, McDavid or MacKinnon or Makar on the backend.

Close is an understatement, the teams went 1-1 with a total score of 5-5, even in world juniors it's 4-4 the last 10 years for Canada USA in terms of wins.

Even looking at the draft, America went from:
0 1st overalls 50 years ago+
3 from 75-00
5 from 01-24

Look at awards:

No Norris wins before 90s
1 in 96
2 since then (maybe 3 this year)

0 Harts until 2015, 2 (counting that one) since then

0 Vezina before 1980s, 2 then to 2000, 5 (basically 6) since then

2 Lindsays last 10 years, never before won

1 Rocket in 96, 3 since then with Matthews likely to win a few more

Very clear progression for America. From Modano/Gretzky to LA impact to the 96 world cup impact to the expansion impact to the success in the world juniors impact, America has been on an upward trajectory that isn't slowing and it's the first time that on paper Canada wasn't a massive favorite, if at all even a favorite, considering the holes in net.

Since then the USA has only gotten better, the teams are basically neck and neck at this point. With Hockey continuing to gain popularity and America's population surging, it makes sense that America can be basically equal to or even surpass Canada.

Close is an understatement, the teams went 1-1 with a total score of 5-5, even in world juniors it's 4-4 the last 10 years for Canada USA in terms of wins.

Neck and Neck is a massive stretch, this one tournament it was close, but the two before that wasn't close at all. Canada still has by far the most players, by the highest % of elite players.

The US still has nobody to match Crosby, McDavid or MacKinnon or Makar on the backend.

Even looking at the draft, America went from:
0 1st overalls 50 years ago+
3 from 75-00
5 from 01-24

Sure and that is the US improving not matching Canada. Still have yet to produce any first overall comparable to Crosby, MacKinnon or McDavid. Or really anyone with the profile of Bedard. McKenna looks far above any recent US born #1 as well.

Look at awards:

No Norris wins before 90s
1 in 96
2 since then (maybe 3 this year)

0 Harts until 2015, 2 (counting that one) since then

0 Vezina before 1980s, 2 then to 2000, 5 (basically 6) since then

2 Lindsays last 10 years, never before won

1 Rocket in 96, 3 since then with Matthews likely to win a few more

Still not close to matching Canada and as pointed out the elite talent still is a Canadian advantage.

Very clear progression for America. From Modano/Gretzky to LA impact to the 96 world cup impact to the expansion impact to the success in the world juniors impact, America has been on an upward trajectory that isn't slowing and it's the first time that on paper Canada wasn't a massive favorite, if at all even a favorite, considering the holes in net.

Progression yes, equal not a chnace.

 

[NVious]

Neck and Neck is a massive stretch, this one tournament it was close, but the two before that wasn't close at all. Canada still has by far the most players, by the highest % of elite players.

The US still has nobody to match Crosby, McDavid or MacKinnon or Makar on the backend.







Neck and Neck is a massive stretch, this one tournament it was close, but the two before that wasn't close at all. Canada still has by far the most players, by the highest % of elite players.

The US still has nobody to match Crosby, McDavid or MacKinnon or Makar on the backend.



Sure and that is the US improving not matching Canada. Still have yet to produce any first overall comparable to Crosby, MacKinnon or McDavid. Or really anyone with the profile of Bedard. McKenna looks far above any recent US born #1 as well.




Still not close to matching Canada and as pointed out the elite talent still is a Canadian advantage.



Progression yes, equal not a chnace.

It's absolutely not a massive stretch at all. Canada never dominated the States which is something that is basically impossible to happen in the past where America's talent wasn't even close to Canada's at any position and there was a massive drop off after the top 6 and top 2 forwards/D. Not so anymore hence why Canada couldn't get anything going in the first game and needed Binnington to play like a God in the 2nd game, again even in 2010 that wasn't the case and it was very clear on paper too.

They definitely match the D which is thin after Makar and their goaltending options 1-3 are clearly better than Canada's. Matthews is clearly better than Bedard/Mckenna, that's not even close, although Canada does have the edge forward wise in terms of top end talent, USA's balance is easily as good though and the USA is at the point where they can afford to leave guys off the team like Cole Caulfield, Tage Thompson, Cooley, Tuch and others. Again in the past the USA was lacking any options and would pray they could even send an all star team forget snubbing people.

Factually that's incorrect, unless by "close" you mean they have to clearly be better than Canada to be "close" to them due to history of Canada being better. I agree the USA is not clearly better. However, Canada's atrocious goaltending production nearly cost them and if you define close as beating Canada and almost beating them in the final game where Canada's goalie actually needs to win them the game, then they are close, very close.

Again, not a chance is delusional. If I stripped the teams of their jerseys and showed you the clips of the incredible saves that Binnington had to make in OT and simply asked you to guess whether it goes in or not, I'm gonna bet you guess some of those had a chance and a very high chance of going in.

 

[Don John]

It's absolutely not a massive stretch at all. Canada never dominated the States which is something that is basically impossible to happen in the past where America's talent wasn't even close to Canada's at any position and there was a massive drop off after the top 6 and top 2 forwards/D. Not so anymore hence why Canada couldn't get anything going in the first game and needed Binnington to play like a God in the 2nd game, again even in 2010 that wasn't the case and it was very clear on paper too.

But that isn't true. In the first game they played without Makar and lost by two including an EN goal. They could create even without the best defenseman in the world. And Binnington didn't play like a god in the final, he was good but far from the only reason they won and if you credit him for that win then blame him for the loss as the US goal was awful.

They definitely match the D which is thin after Makar and their goaltending options 1-3 are clearly better than Canada's. Matthews is clearly better than Bedard/Mckenna, that's not even close, although Canada does have the edge forward wise in terms of top end talent, USA's balance is easily as good though and the USA is at the point where they can afford to leave guys off the team like Cole Caulfield, Tage Thompson, Cooley, Tuch and others. Again in the past the USA was lacking any options and would pray they could even send an all star team forget snubbing people.

Matthews when drafted was not better than either, he is "better" now that he is an established player but put all 3 in a draft in their draft year Matthews is picked 3rd and its not close.

Factually that's incorrect, unless by "close" you mean they have to clearly be better than Canada to be "close" to them due to history of Canada being better. I agree the USA is not clearly better. However, Canada's atrocious goaltending production nearly cost them and if you define close as beating Canada and almost beating them in the final game where Canada's goalie actually needs to win them the game, then they are close, very close.

Factually all your lies are just that lies. US isn't better at all, that isn't debatable. There is literally nothing you can point to that says they are better and multiple facts showing they aren't. It isn't a debate Canada is clearly the better hockey nation.

Again, not a chance is delusional. If I stripped the teams of their jerseys and showed you the clips of the incredible saves that Binnington had to make in OT and simply asked you to guess whether it goes in or not, I'm gonna bet you guess some of those had a chance and a very high chance of going in.

You are tying to use one period and not even a full period. You why you have to use silly hypotheticals? Because every actual fact proves you wrong.

 

[NVious]

But that isn't true. In the first game they played without Makar and lost by two including an EN goal. They could create even without the best defenseman in the world. And Binnington didn't play like a god in the final, he was good but far from the only reason they won and if you credit him for that win then blame him for the loss as the US goal was awful.



Matthews when drafted was not better than either, he is "better" now that he is an established player but put all 3 in a draft in their draft year Matthews is picked 3rd and its not close.



Factually all your lies are just that lies. US isn't better at all, that isn't debatable. There is literally nothing you can point to that says they are better and multiple facts showing they aren't. It isn't a debate Canada is clearly the better hockey nation.



You are tying to use one period and not even a full period. You why you have to use silly hypotheticals? Because every actual fact proves you wrong.

And the USA was without Hughes, he and Makar have the same number of Norris wins. Why would you even make this excuse considering USA was without Hughes/Matthew Tkachuk and McAvoy in the finals? Binnington absolutely played like a God considering his OT saves, there were 3 chances that EASILY could've went in.

I don't think so, but that's extremely debatable.

I never said the US was better, but obviously you're having a hard time reading, I said saying it wasn't close is no longer the case. Canada lost a game, Canada won a game, not counting the EN goal it's 5-5 goals and 1-1 wins to losses. It's close and anybody watching the two games would in no way describe Canada's performance as clear dominance, nor is it any longer the case on paper. For the first time ever the USA is clearly even better at anything, this was never the case but goaltending in Canada has fallen off a cliff.

America was equal with Canada for 60 minutes, that happened. Binnington made 3 grade A saves, that happened, you're living in denial. The gap has narrowed yet again, that's reality.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

100%

Cricket will be the top sport in Canada in 50 years

Primarily for this reason.

 

[Mattb124]

Yes if you look at the numbers, they are similar, then consider one has 10x the population to make it similar.

It is sophomoric to look at today’s numbers to inform a conclusion about longer-terms trends. The relevant factor is how those numbers are trending and whether those trends are likely to continue. The number of American youth hockey players is now greater than Canada, and youth hockey participation rates in the U.S. are increasing. Youth hockey participation in Canada is declining, so that number will get smaller over time if the trend continues.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

America's even somewhat relevant Hockey history goes back to Gretzky going to LA, before that Hockey was an extremely fringe. Your logic goes nowhere fast considering Gretzky/expansion/world junior success are new things


I'm not American, just fair, Canada won when it mattered, but it was extremely close the whole way (unlike the past as well) and America could've easily won if Binnington didn't play out of his mind.

There are about 40 million Canadians

There are 350-400 million Americans.

Their population is almost 10X the size.

If they were good enough to do it, they would have already done it just due to their population.

They aren't good enough to do it and they never will be.