Prospect Info: CBJ Prospect Thread XI

[CBJWerenski8]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1828432289732403210

From 4th last year…to 4th again

 

[Doggy]

I know it must be some sort of pre-season in Russia but is that right...Ivanov with a seventy save night? WOW. Might need to bump him up from #9 on the summer rankings just for this

https://x.com/i/web/status/1827060365743841483

 

[Kshahdoo]

Ivanov has better stats in the KHL than Askarov in the AHL and is 2 years younger...

 

[tunnelvision]

In my eyes he's looked great this preseason but not amazing. Very good at stopping primary chances/shots but I still want his recovery and post-to-post speed to be a bit sharper, as a 6'0 goalie you can only leave so much room for error at NHL level.

 

[squashmaple]

It's Pronman NHL Pipeline (so all U23 players regardless of level or NHL games played) week, and the Jackets were posted today, fourth overall. A high ranking that is interesting because the individual player write-ups are all pretty pessimistic, but Pronman also gives Chicago number one because of Bedard and only Bedard, so. Take him with a grain of salt.

His list is:

1 Fantilli
2 Lindstrom
3 Jiricek
4 Johnson
5 Sillinger
6 Elick
7 Brindley
8 Mateychuk
9 Marelli
10 Ivanov
11 del bel Belluz
12 Dumais
13 Dolzhenkov

with honorable mentions in alphabetical order to Celemans, Gardner, Keskinen, Knazko, Malatesta, Pyyhtia, and Svozil.

Considering many orgs only have five or six guys to mention total, this is deep. But it's also full of little guys going nowhere, bottom sixers, and 5/6/7 D.

(the top ten is Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim, Columbus, Ottawa LOLWUT, Montreal, Utah, New Jersey, Seattle, Minnesota)

 

[MoeBartoli]

It's Pronman NHL Pipeline (so all U23 players regardless of level or NHL games played) week, and the Jackets were posted today, fourth overall. A high ranking that is interesting because the individual player write-ups are all pretty pessimistic, but Pronman also gives Chicago number one because of Bedard and only Bedard, so. Take him with a grain of salt.

His list is:

1 Fantilli
2 Lindstrom
3 Jiricek
4 Johnson
5 Sillinger
6 Elick
7 Brindley
8 Mateychuk
9 Marelli
10 Ivanov
11 del bel Belluz
12 Dumais
13 Dolzhenkov

with honorable mentions in alphabetical order to Celemans, Gardner, Keskinen, Knazko, Malatesta, Pyyhtia, and Svozil.

Considering many orgs only have five or six guys to mention total, this is deep. But it's also full of little guys going nowhere, bottom sixers, and 5/6/7 D.

(the top ten is Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim, Columbus, Ottawa LOLWUT, Montreal, Utah, New Jersey, Seattle, Minnesota)

I thought he shortchanged Mateychuk who I’d have expected to be higher.

 

[tunnelvision]

I have more issues with his player analyses than the rankings themselves. A couple head scratchers:

Lindstrom's hockey sense is "below average" while Fantilli, Sillinger and Elick are "NHL average".

Mateychuk and Marrelli have "above average shots".

Mateychuk's hockey sense (which imo is his best trait) is just "NHL average". KJ's hockey sense also at average level.

Dumais and Fantilli are on the same level at skating, "average level".

-------

Yeah, still cannot take Pronman or Wheeler seriously when it comes to evaluating prospects.

 

[Doggy]

It's Pronman NHL Pipeline (so all U23 players regardless of level or NHL games played) week, and the Jackets were posted today, fourth overall. A high ranking that is interesting because the individual player write-ups are all pretty pessimistic, but Pronman also gives Chicago number one because of Bedard and only Bedard, so. Take him with a grain of salt.

His list is:

1 Fantilli
2 Lindstrom
3 Jiricek
4 Johnson
5 Sillinger
6 Elick
7 Brindley
8 Mateychuk
9 Marelli
10 Ivanov
11 del bel Belluz
12 Dumais
13 Dolzhenkov

with honorable mentions in alphabetical order to Celemans, Gardner, Keskinen, Knazko, Malatesta, Pyyhtia, and Svozil.

Considering many orgs only have five or six guys to mention total, this is deep. But it's also full of little guys going nowhere, bottom sixers, and 5/6/7 D.

(the top ten is Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim, Columbus, Ottawa LOLWUT, Montreal, Utah, New Jersey, Seattle, Minnesota)

missed the last few of these but i do not understand the elick over dumais consensus at all. it's ranking a good junior player over a historically great junior player. i don't get it.

i get that we've watched bad defense and small forwards for the last few years, and that the jackets have lacked a player like elick (in theory, anyway), but that shouldn't be a consideration when the question is which one is the better prospect.

any of the "one-way player" concerns with dumais's profile also apply to elick – and i'd argue they're more concerning given his comps/role.

i say this as someone who likes elick a lot – there's a likely (and positive) outcome where he simply becomes andrew peeke 2.0, who is the best of a cohort of similar prospects (with ceulemans, carlsson, collins, heatherington) who were taken in the same range and had similar profiles as prospects in recent CBJ history.

dumais projects to a role where his tools (offensive play-driving + finishing) can be highly leveraged to out-produce his deficiencies (defense/physicality) – which can be mitigated by linemates/role anyway. you can't do that with a one-way defensive defenseman. not to mention that goal production, as a commodity, is harder to find than goal prevention.

this is also why i'm (much) lower on malatesta and greaves than the consensus. team needs don't map to prospect rankings in my book.

Dumais @ 12 a full six spots behind Elick, cbjthrowaway gonna go nuclear on Pronman

 

[CannonFire1]

While we can certainly argue about rankings for individual players, the overall list confirms the time should be right for Columbus to make a move up the standings in the next 1-3 years. Most of the Metro has relatively weak prospect pools and/or has an aging core that should be in decline. The top pools seem to be concentrated in the West.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Dumais @ 12 a full six spots behind Elick, cbjthrowaway gonna go nuclear on Pronman

writer with well-documented size bias ranks big player over small player, more at 11

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Yeah, still cannot take Pronman or Wheeler seriously when it comes to evaluating prospects.

at least with wheeler:

• his writeups provide far more detail
• he strays away from comps + standardized tool grades, whereas pronman leans on them
• he has clearly articulated his scouting process (and updates it yearly)
• he publishes a piece every year detailing who he was wrong about and what it teaches him about the flaws in his own evaluations

he's way more transparent and self-aware than pronman, and maybe this is just the resulting optics but it sure seems like he puts more thought into who and how he is evaluating than pronman does.

he's had some swings and misses but i think his work is generally more valuable than any other individual public-sphere scout.

i also am a fan of the eliteprospects evaluations, which are done by a collective of scouts + documented and discussed in their roundtable videos.

 

[majormajor]

I have more issues with his player analyses than the rankings themselves. A couple head scratchers:

Lindstrom's hockey sense is "below average" while Fantilli, Sillinger and Elick are "NHL average".

Mateychuk and Marrelli have "above average shots".

Mateychuk's hockey sense (which imo is his best trait) is just "NHL average". KJ's hockey sense also at average level.

Dumais and Fantilli are on the same level at skating, "average level".

-------

Yeah, still cannot take Pronman or Wheeler seriously when it comes to evaluating prospects.

I listen to Pronman because he's better networked with NHL scouts and shares what he learns from them, which is the main thing I want to hear about. But when he describes what he sees in prospects it very frequently strays far from what I see, to the point that the players are completely unrecognizable.

 

[majormajor]

at least with wheeler:

• his writeups provide far more detail
• he strays away from comps + standardized tool grades, whereas pronman leans on them
• he has clearly articulated his scouting process (and updates it yearly)
• he publishes a piece every year detailing who he was wrong about and what it teaches him about the flaws in his own evaluations

he's way more transparent and self-aware than pronman, and maybe this is just the resulting optics but it sure seems like he puts more thought into who and how he is evaluating than pronman does.

he's had some swings and misses but i think his work is generally more valuable than any other individual public-sphere scout.

i also am a fan of the eliteprospects evaluations, which are done by a collective of scouts + documented and discussed in their roundtable videos.

I appreciate that process but Wheeler has got to do a better job of understanding the NHL and what makes for success in that league. There have been times where he has more 5'8 top prospects than there are 5'8 players in the NHL. Just on another planet from reality.

 

[Xoggz22]

My primary issue with the Pronman piece is that I don't see how he grades the attributes and then ranks them. I thought his writeup was pretty fair, but his order was a bit of chaos. Still looks like a deep group to me with a lot of upside. Can it develop? Who cares the rank, just reach your peak boys!

 

[CBJx614]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1829947028698231290

Per Google translate

Spartak came back from 1:3 in the last minute and reached the final of the Moscow Mayor's Cup, where they will meet CSKA tomorrow.

Dolzy scored to give them a two goal advantage.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

It's Pronman NHL Pipeline (so all U23 players regardless of level or NHL games played) week, and the Jackets were posted today, fourth overall. A high ranking that is interesting because the individual player write-ups are all pretty pessimistic, but Pronman also gives Chicago number one because of Bedard and only Bedard, so. Take him with a grain of salt.

His list is:

1 Fantilli
2 Lindstrom
3 Jiricek
4 Johnson
5 Sillinger
6 Elick
7 Brindley
8 Mateychuk
9 Marelli
10 Ivanov
11 del bel Belluz
12 Dumais
13 Dolzhenkov

with honorable mentions in alphabetical order to Celemans, Gardner, Keskinen, Knazko, Malatesta, Pyyhtia, and Svozil.

Considering many orgs only have five or six guys to mention total, this is deep. But it's also full of little guys going nowhere, bottom sixers, and 5/6/7 D.

(the top ten is Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim, Columbus, Ottawa LOLWUT, Montreal, Utah, New Jersey, Seattle, Minnesota)

Pronman is he single most idiotic fake scout that you will find.

 

[CBJx614]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1829947028698231290

Per Google translate


Dolzy scored to give them a two goal advantage.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1830285376214257842

 

[AnonCommentary]

Ranking the best NHL players and prospects under 23: Bedard, Stützle, Celebrini top the list

A player must be 22 years old or younger as of Sept. 15, 2024, to qualify.


Elite NHL Player

4 - Fantilli

Top of the line-up player

38 - Lindstrom

Bubble Top & Middle of line-up

47 - Jiricek

51 - Johnson

Middle of line-up

79 - Sillinger

92 - Elick

94 - Brindley

137 - Mateychuk

 

[josra33]

Why is Brindley criminally underrated?

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Why is Brindley criminally underrated?

More concerned about how underrated Mateychuk is, but for Brindley my guess is his size and not playing an eye popping style of game.

 

[Jovavic]

You gotta put Fantilli and Brindley together to see if they can rekindle their Michigan chemistry. Now, who to play with them?

 

[squashmaple]

It’s Pronman. Guys under 5’11” pretty much have to be prime Johnny to get any respect from him.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

You gotta put Fantilli and Brindley together to see if they can rekindle their Michigan chemistry. Now, who to play with them?

KJ

 

[Doggy]

Why is Brindley criminally underrated?

More concerned about how underrated Mateychuk is, but for Brindley my guess is his size and not playing an eye popping style of game.

It’s Pronman. Guys under 5’11” pretty much have to be prime Johnny to get any respect from him.

He has Brindley and Mateychuk as "middle of the lineup" players. That's a middle six forward for Brindley and second pair d-man for Mateychuk. Unless you folks have Brindley as a top line forward and Mateychuk as a top pairing d-man this is hardly under-rated. Maybe Mateychuk can get there I don't know but wouldn't make that bet with either of these guys.

 

[Indy18]

Ranking the best NHL players and prospects under 23: Bedard, Stützle, Celebrini top the list

A player must be 22 years old or younger as of Sept. 15, 2024, to qualify.


Elite NHL Player

4 - Fantilli

Top of the line-up player

38 - Lindstrom

Bubble Top & Middle of line-up

47 - Jiricek

51 - Johnson

Middle of line-up

79 - Sillinger

92 - Elick

94 - Brindley

137 - Mateychuk

So looking at the potential in 4 years and assuming...nobody wants out...

??? - Fantilli - ???
KJ - Lindstrom - (Chinakov/Marchenko/Monahan/Brindley)
Voronkov- Sillinger - (Russians/Brindley)
(4th liners are a dime a dozen)

Z??? - Jiricek
Mateychuck - Severson
??? - Elick

Also looking at a top 5 pick with some really strong talent this year so Lindstrom could very well end up at the wing especially if we get Hagens (the wingers also look strong too so any of them could be the LW/RW1).

Seems like we are heading into the "let the kids cook stage" and hopefully things will be coming together soon while still reinforcing our prospect pool for true top line potential. Between the two Russians hopefully one breaks away this year to be a true RW1. To me they are both RW2s right now with different styles so hopefully we can answer that question soon. Severson is really the only long term contract that could age badly and that's no different than Jones on the Blackhawks. Someone had it right the other day we are basically an expansion team with a pretty clean set of books so we can spend to get the missing pieces or so in the next 2-3 years but still have value on mid career contracts outside probably Fantilli who we are gonna probably lock down long term and make sure he's the face of the franchise for years to come.