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Player Discussion Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) #37 - Part III

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SnuggaRUDE said:
I suspect he wanted to bet on himself
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Since he finished last season string but has a career high of 59 pts in his career, that makes sense.

AFP projected his next deal at 2x$3.68M before FA. So, I do not know what a deal would have looked like that he would have bitten on prior to the season.
 
What happens with Mittelstadt in the off-season is probably the most interesting thing about it.

He’s been playing his way into an extension. He also may be playing his way out of affording giving him one. If he signs long term they are going to have to move something out from the top of the prospect pipeline. Which should net them something interesting. Just zero room for guys who are ready. If they move him out that should bet them something interesting too.

But the most likely scenario is probably also the most boring one. A shorter extension of like three years to buy them time to see if anyone in the pipeline develops into a very good center. But the timing on that gets wonky. If the team is contending in two years are you moving a top center out to make room for a developed Ostlund? Seems weird. But letting him walk for nothing seems weirder when you know you can get something for him or the piece(s) you moved because you kept him.

Waiting was the right call…but it’s starting to tip towards needing a decision time because he’s playing his way into a deal that’s either much bigger than you want…or much shorter than makes sense.
 
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Ace said:
What happens with Mittelstadt in the off-season is probably the most interesting thing about it.

He’s been playing his way into an extension. He also may be playing his way out of affording giving him one. If he signs long term they are going to have to move something out from the top of the prospect pipeline. Which should net them something interesting. Just zero room for guys who are ready. If they move him out that should bet them something interesting too.

But the most likely scenario is probably also the most boring one. A shorter extension of like three years to buy them time to see if anyone in the pipeline develops into a very good center. But the timing on that gets wonky. If the team is contending in two years are you moving a top center out to make room for a developed Ostlund? Seems weird. But letting him walk for nothing seems weirder when you know you can get something for him or the piece(s) you moved because you kept him.

Waiting was the right call…but it’s starting to tip towards needing a decision time because he’s playing his way into a deal that’s either much bigger than you want…or much shorter than makes sense.
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This sounds like one of them good problems. A problem nonetheless but still preferable to the alternative.
 
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Jacob582 said:
In all honesty, how many teams have been this patient with a 1st rounder?

D+5/6!
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Probably more than most realize. I think it just seems like such a long time because the sabres kept him up at 18.

In reality, a ton of first round picks don't truly arrive until they D+5 or +6 season.

I think if you look closely at every draft you may be surprised to find a couple, and with Mitts' under-developed physicality, it probably should have been expected.

Guys like Hertl, Koivu(Mikko), and even the Sedins come to mind, just off of the top of my head. We could probably even throw Hischier in there to some extent. He was a full on passenger with Hall his rookie year and didn't produce anywhere near that level again until his D+5 year
 
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Unless he’s willing to sign a deal tipped in the Sabres favor now we should wait to see if he keeps up pace, but I’m pleasantly content with how he’s been developing finally.
 
debaser66 said:
he was kept up in the line up while he should have been in the AHL to begin with, same goes for Thompson. With Adams & Granato at the helm these 2 players might have hit their potential much earlier.
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The organization was banking on one of Tage or Mitts to fulfill the ROR hole immediately...

Goes to show how poorly ran this team was back then.
 
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We should be floating something like 4x$5.75M to his representation right now. He'd be 29 when it expires and in line for a big payday under a new cap. He might insist on three years in this case.

Something like the Zegras deal - Mitts is two years older but their careers are at similar stages due to Mitts being stunted for a few years. I also think Mitts is the type to say "I love it here and that is a ton of money in the end" and sign the deal.

I don't think he's going to slow down, so waiting will only hurt us.
 
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HOOats said:
We should be floating something like 4x$5.75M to his representation right now. He'd be 29 when it expires and in line for a big payday under a new cap. He might insist on three years in this case.

Something like the Zegras deal - Mitts is two years older but their careers are at similar stages due to Mitts being stunted for a few years. I also think Mitts is the type to say "I love it here and that is a ton of money in the end" and sign the deal.

I don't think he's going to slow down, so waiting will only hurt us.
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Well, he could very well ask for Cozens' contract, why not?
 
Fjordy said:
Well, he could very well ask for Cozens' contract, why not?
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Because he hasn't produced like Cozens and has more risk in his profile due to his uneven development path.

But he may well ask for that and it may land somewhere in between what I proposed as the Cozens deal. If I were Casey I'd rather have my four year deal and potentially get a huge deal at age 29 than a seven year deal expiring at 32.
 
HOOats said:
Because he hasn't produced like Cozens and has more risk in his profile due to his uneven development path.

But he may well ask for that and it may land somewhere in between what I proposed as the Cozens deal. If I were Casey I'd rather have my four year deal and potentially get a huge deal at age 29 than a seven year deal expiring at 32.
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Well, now he is no less effective than Cozens
 
HOOats said:
Because he hasn't produced like Cozens and has more risk in his profile due to his uneven development path.

But he may well ask for that and it may land somewhere in between what I proposed as the Cozens deal. If I were Casey I'd rather have my four year deal and potentially get a huge deal at age 29 than a seven year deal expiring at 32.
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If he continues producing like he has (which I think he will), then at the end of the season he will have produced like Cozens when he got his deal. Mittelstadt is also signing off of a bridge, so it is buying more UFA years than Cozens deal.

We’ll see how it all goes, but Casey might be unaffordable by the end of the season. We can’t give everybody 7x7.
 


Their current opinion is that 6x6 is a fair contract, they even call it a bargain for the Sabres. But if Casey keeps this up and waits until the end of the season, it could rise into JT Miller/Will Karlsson territory.
 
CaliSabresfan24 said:
The organization was banking on one of Tage or Mitts to fulfill the ROR hole immediately...

Goes to show how poorly ran this team was back then.
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Also goes to show you how long these kids take to fully develop. Let's stop relying on kids now that we're developing, we have plenty of cap space for experienced players. Kulich or Rosen shouldn't sniff NHL games this season for that reason.

Fezzy126 said:


Their current opinion is that 6x6 is a fair contract, they even call it a bargain for the Sabres. But if Casey keeps this up and waits until the end of the season, it could rise into JT Miller/Will Karlsson territory.
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I listened to the first 45 seconds, enough to hear them say "6 by 6," which makes total sense to me. I wonder if he feels he's worth more though.
 
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Fezzy126 said:


Their current opinion is that 6x6 is a fair contract, they even call it a bargain for the Sabres. But if Casey keeps this up and waits until the end of the season, it could rise into JT Miller/Will Karlsson territory.
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6x6 sounds fair. He also has to bear in mind that if he wants to stay in Buffalo, which all indications I've ever seen/heard are that he does, he might have to take less. He's not going to get paid more than 94 point top line center TNT, so the internal cap is already structured in the team's favor. If he's willing to work within those confines, then great. The other thing is that he, TNT, and DC are all centers. Having the center spine locked up long term with the idea that wingers on each line could/should get paid slightly less than the centers sounds really appealing to me. Eventually guys will have to move out. JJP is clearly still developing, but he has 30-40 goal potential, easily. There are a lot of tough decisions to make in this team's future, and I'm sure I'm going to be unhappy about some of them, but they can't keep everybody.
 
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Did this discussion come out of the Baker Fairburn pod this week? If he keeps this up, he's in for a big raise.

Do people consider him as 'core'? If so, you sign him and that cascades to impact other decisions.
 
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