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Player Discussion Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) #37 - Part III

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joshjull said:
It can certainly be misused or misrepresented. The same could be said by a lot of stats used on here.

As @mechaworm pointed out, its just predictive model for what to expect from a player if their jumped from their league to the NHL. It doesn’t tell us anything beyond that.

Its a good tool to use as a starting point to determine if a player is ready to make the jump or not. Or to get a rough idea what to expect from them in the first NHL season. Its not the end all be all but its pretty helpful. Plus its a nice tool to use to compare prospects from different leagues, like Cozens in WHL and R2 in Liiga.


I agree Mitts career going forward is entirely in his hands. How hard he works in the AHL right now and next offseason will have an enormous impact on his chances of success.
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Honestly, I wasn't aware it was "about what you would probably do immediately if you made the jump from league X to the NHL from one year to the next" - vs what they would become.

That itself would really narrow down the outliers, so I can see how it would fit a majority of players.
 
Like all almost all statistics there is a variance and therefore are outliers like McDavid or Austin Mathews. Most data points (ie players) however will fit within the model reasonably. It is also a statistic that when looked at year over year should show progression, especially for a young player if they are working on their game. Casey has shown no progression in this statistic in three and a half years. If anything he has shown regression when going against bigger, more mature players. His attitude when he got sent down to Rochester where he said it has always just come to him, and is expecting it still will, makes me think he doesn't really know what the hard work of a pro is, and he doesn't seem to have the compete and drive to MAKE it come to him. Maybe a switch goes off someday and he suddenly gets how hard he will have to work for it, and somehow also really wants to do that. My experience in life as a leader and manager have shown me that people can have all the talent in the world, but if they do not have the drive to employ it and develop it, there is nothing anyone else can do to make them. Casey was elevated to quickly by the Sabres which also probably fed into his notion that everything just comes to him. (I am generally a Botterill supporter.....but this mistake is 100% on him.) I think he is way more likely bust than boom and if you can get value out of him in combination with a defensemen to fix one of the other major holes on the team then you do it with no hesitation.
 
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wnysupport said:
Honestly, I wasn't aware it was "about what you would probably do immediately if you made the jump from league X to the NHL from one year to the next" - vs what they would become.

That itself would really narrow down the outliers, so I can see how it would fit a majority of players.
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I was hoping Mitts was going to be an outlier himself in his rookie year. I had no statistical basis for my hope but I was hoping for it all the same.

At the end of the day we rushed Mitts to the NHL. He was basically a raw talent who needed a lot more molding in higher level leagues than HS hockey and USHL when he was drafted. He had very little high end hockey under his belt before going pro. To drive that point home, compare Mitts to Cozens in their pre and post draft years ............

Cozens had 128 WHL games under his belt before getting drafted. He is up to 160 WHL games and counting this season. Mitts only had 24 USHL games pre draft (26 total if you count 2 games with Team USA U18 team). Then only 34 in college after getting drafted.
 
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@Bendium

I’m using this for my NHLe conversions. NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

It has Mitts Minny season’s NHLe at 24pts.

It has different values for each of the NCAA conferences. The Big Ten is roughly between .33 and .34. Instead of the blanket .41 For the NCAA in the chart you posted. As an example that same number of games/points in Hockey East works out to a NHLe of 28.
 
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joshjull said:
@ Bendium.

I’m using this for my NHLe conversions. NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

It has Mitts Minny season’s NHLe at 24pts.

It has different values for each of the NCAA conferences. The Big Ten is roughly between .33 and .34. Instead of the blanket .41 For the NCAA in the chart you posted. As an example that same number of games/points in Hockey East works out to a NHLe of 28.
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Good tool thanks.
 
joshjull said:
@Bendium

I’m using this for my NHLe conversions. NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

It has Mitts Minny season’s NHLe at 24pts.

It has different values for each of the NCAA conferences. The Big Ten is roughly between .33 and .34. Instead of the blanket .41 For the NCAA in the chart you posted. As an example that same number of games/points in Hockey East works out to a NHLe of 28.
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The tool seems to be using league stats of 2015.
 
How come there were like ten stat watchers posting when he wasn’t scoring points? After zero points in his first 3 games, he has gone 5+5 in the last 13. Showing signs of life at least!
 
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I love how botts seems to get it with Mitts....but it doesn’t make sense.

Nothing changed between when Mitts was merely surviving here week after week. Why wasn’t the move made earlier. And how did he repeat the same mistake as with Thompson...immediately right afterwards?
 
Dirty Dog said:
I love how botts seems to get it with Mitts....but it doesn’t make sense.

Nothing changed between when Mitts was merely surviving here week after week. Why wasn’t the move made earlier. And how did he repeat the same mistake as with Thompson...immediately right afterwards?
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It's been said time and time again, Botterill lets his coaches make final decisions on who is called up and who stays down. Coaches changed.
 
Has Botts done any extensions during season?

I don't think so, and considering he says thry will wait for the off-season for Reinhart, I wonder if he has a policy or if that is player driven.

It seems odd.
 
Dirty Dog said:
absolutely! It’s beyond confusing why it took so long for him to get proper development, but let’s actually give it to him. Rest of the year in the AHL at a minimum.
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We have a GM who's poo-poo that's why...
 
Icicle said:
It's been said time and time again, Botterill lets his coaches make final decisions on who is called up and who stays down. Coaches changed.
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does anyone know how true this is? Seems very hard to believe, and actually still doesn’t make sense looking at roster moves (and raises more questions).

Not that I don’t believe you and I could have missed it.
 
Chainshot said:
No, he has said he is in charge of personnel moves and the coaches are in charge of who plays.
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Botterill literally said in interviews that he would tell Housley the options of players and Housley would choose who would play up or down. All part of the ‘I hire a coach who can do his own thing’
 
Icicle said:
Botterill literally said in interviews that he would tell Housley the options of players and Housley would choose who would play up or down. All part of the ‘I hire a coach who can do his own thing’
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so how is that different to what Chain said?
 
Icicle said:
He insinuates the 23 is set by Botterill and Housley chooses form there. What actually happens is the 23 is set by Housley and now Krueger.
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how and why would Housley/Krueger choose who to call up from Rochester?
 
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