GDT: carphi 7:30pm

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I sometimes forget that Chatfield is only 1.5 years younger than Pesce. Less mileage for sure, but at this age, will he be willing to sign for what the Canes would want to sign him for? I clearly don't know what he's thinking, but he continues to play the way he has been, this would be his best chance for a big payday and I'd go for it.

I think that mileage matters a ton here. Chatfield hasn't played a ton of NHL minutes and wasn't really playing workhorse minutes in the AHL until that huge Calder Cup year with the Wolves. I'll be interested to see if Carolina tries a longer extension than people expect from Chatfield, something like 4 years, while letting Pesce get that massive contract elsewhere in UFA. A 4 year deal would only take Chatfield to age 31, which means that he may seriously cash in from some team if he truly becomes a middle-pairing player. I do think, though, that the Canes sign some competition for that 2RD spot rather than handing it on a platter. Again, I mentioned Chris Tanev, but yes, giving a short, high-dollar contract to someone like him or DeMelo would do the trick.

 

[Lempo]

Heya! Is there anything viral posted why Svech didnt play?

Han har en snuva.

 

[Stickpucker]

Since were about 1/4 of the way through the season, I thought I'd look at where each player is at production wise.

What I did in this table is calculate the Goals/Game and Points/Game for each player. I then assumed they scored at the same rates for the remaining 61 game and added it to their totals to date, so it's not an "82 game" rate, it's the max number of games they could play this year given some players missed time already. I know not every player will play all 61 games and I know players won't score at the same rate, but I wanted to get a feel for how far below or above expectations players currently were.

They're projections based on this method. Red is where I think they are lower than I would expect. Green is higher than I'd expect (some personal bias probably in there).

Aho: 22G, 83P
Jarvis: 35G, 70P (My expectations are more 25/50 for this year)
TT: 39G, 62P. (TT is still a 70-80 point player IMO)
KK: 31G, 59P (I would have expected about 50P for him so slightly high on points)
Bunting: 20G, 57P
Necas: 23G, 55P
Skjei: 12G, 55P
Svech: 6G, 55P (very small sample to make projection)
Noesen: 23G, 43P
Slavin: 12G, 43P
Burns: 20G, 35P
TDA: 5G, 34P (not RED because expectations based on how used)
Orlov: 4G, 31P
Staal: 4G, 23P
Fast: 8G, 20P
Martinook: 0G, 20P
Chatfield: 5G, 19P
Drury: 4G, 16P
Lemieux: 16G, 16P (very small sample to make projection)
Pesce: 6G, 11P (smaller sample due to injury)

abridged version:
old men play bad
young men play guud.
additions play guud.

goalies not so guud.

The Staal line literally is there to eat clock and not much else. I hope that line can at least be a threat in the coming months.

 

[Stickpucker]

Han har en snuva.

Thanks for the invite, but due to my culture I'd feel a little uncomfortable eating hamburgers in the nude in a sauna with you Lempo.

 

[Lempo]

Thanks for the invite, but due to my culture I'd feel a little uncomfortable eating hamburgers in the nude in a sauna with you Lempo.

I'd say "suit yourself" but suiting yourself in a sauna would be one damn serious faux-pas.

 

[AD Skinner]

You had me at burgers in the nude

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Ahh see now you're going to open a can of worms, because IMHO, it shouldn't matter if Karlsson is scoring 101 when his actual defensive numbers are horrid. I don't care if you're putting up top flight offensive numbers if you are as effective as a traffic cone in keeping attacking situations away from your own net.

It's not opening a can of worms. It's reality. We may not like that the Norris has basically become the trophy for the best offensive defenseman, but it's a reality.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Re: Chat, I think the best comparable for him is Gustav Forsling. A guy that moves around in the minors in different organizations, and then absolutely thrives in new situations. However, Gus got his 3 years, $2.67M caphit after playing legit top 4 minutes for a while. Chat really only had a game or two 7 games audition with Slavin after Burns had an injury last year. Gus's deal was also in 2021 dollars, so the cap has gone up a little bit.

All in all, I'd easily do 3-4 years at $2.5-$3M for Chat. He's worth it. There's little risk of overpayment here, bottom pairing guys are worth $3M often in free agency. If we lose Pesce and Skjei, and get less leverage, I still think we could go up to $4M for Chatfield. I don't think any team in free agency would dole out more than $4M AAV but I could be wrong. (Another comparable is Justin Holl at 3 years, $3.4M, signed at age 31)

EDIT - thanks @AhosDatsyukian in that it was 7 games, not 1 or 2.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

It's not opening a can of worms. It's reality. We may not like that the Norris has basically become the trophy for the best offensive defenseman, but it's a reality.

There’s also a dynamic of advanced analytics providing more and more backing for the notion that that high-end offense does have a bigger impact on the game than the shutdown D anyway…

If Slavin ever cracks 55 pts he has an outsider’s chance. It’d have to be a year with low scoring among dmen. This is a nice way of saying it’s never happening. He’s one of the best in the world at what he does, but the award is the best defenseman, not the best defense man. The impact on the game of being that shutdown guy only goes so far.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Re: Chat, I think the best comparable for him is Gustav Forsling. A guy that moves around in the minors in different organizations, and then absolutely thrives in new situations. However, Gus got his 3 years, $2.67M caphit after playing legit top 4 minutes for a while. Chat really only had a game or two audition with Slavin after Burns had an injury last year. Gus's deal was also in 2021 dollars, so the cap has gone up a little bit.

All in all, I'd easily do 3-4 years at $2.5-$3M for Chat. He's worth it. There's little risk of overpayment here, bottom pairing guys are worth $3M often in free agency. If we lose Pesce and Skjei, and get less leverage, I still think we could go up to $4M for Chatfield. I don't think any team in free agency would dole out more than $4M AAV but I could be wrong. (Another comparable is Justin Holl at 3 years, $3.4M, signed at age 31)

A large reason why I think Chatfield is a good bet to extend is because a 4 year deal only takes him to age 31. If he proves himself as worthy of a top-4 spot, he could get PAID in his next UFA round.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Re: Chat, I think the best comparable for him is Gustav Forsling. A guy that moves around in the minors in different organizations, and then absolutely thrives in new situations. However, Gus got his 3 years, $2.67M caphit after playing legit top 4 minutes for a while. Chat really only had a game or two audition with Slavin after Burns had an injury last year. Gus's deal was also in 2021 dollars, so the cap has gone up a little bit.

All in all, I'd easily do 3-4 years at $2.5-$3M for Chat. He's worth it. There's little risk of overpayment here, bottom pairing guys are worth $3M often in free agency. If we lose Pesce and Skjei, and get less leverage, I still think we could go up to $4M for Chatfield. I don't think any team in free agency would dole out more than $4M AAV but I could be wrong. (Another comparable is Justin Holl at 3 years, $3.4M, signed at age 31)

Slavin also missed 6 games last year and Chatfield filled in on his off side with Burns on the top pair in that stretch. He performed spectacularly -- +7 in 6 wins with no games where he was minus, 4 assists and averaging over 20 minutes per game.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

There’s also a dynamic of advanced analytics providing more and more backing for the notion that that high-end offense does have a bigger impact on the game than the shutdown D anyway…

If Slavin ever cracks 55 pts he has an outsider’s chance. It’d have to be a year with low scoring among dmen. This is a nice way of saying it’s never happening. He’s one of the best in the world at what he does, but the award is the best defenseman, not the best defense man. The impact on the game of being that shutdown guy only goes so far.

It's odd, though, that Carolina, possibly the most analytically-driven team in the entire NHL, would hold onto Slavin as their treasured piece over Dougie Hamilton. Perhaps public analytics over-value offensive D over shutdown D, and it skews the earnings power that the elite offensive D get? In fact, outside of their drafted offensive group, most of the trade and UFA improvements have been defense über alles.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

It's odd, though, that Carolina, possibly the most analytically-driven team in the entire NHL, would hold onto Slavin as their treasured piece over Dougie Hamilton. Perhaps public analytics over-value offensive D over shutdown D, and it skews the earnings power that the elite offensive D get? In fact, outside of their drafted offensive group, most of the trade and UFA improvements have been defense über alles.

It does help to choose Slavin over Dougie when one is making half of what the other is.

I was one of the ones who advocated against re-signing Dougie, because I felt $9 million was insane for what he brought. And that held up until this past offseason, where we offered Orlov 7.5 to play on our bottom pair. Now I feel like if we could afford to do that, we absolutely could have (and should have) kept Hamilton.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

It does help to choose Slavin over Dougie when one is making half of what the other is.

I was one of the ones who advocated against re-signing Dougie, because I felt $9 million was insane for what he brought. And that held up until this past offseason, where we offered Orlov 7.5 to play on our bottom pair. Now I feel like if we could afford to do that, we absolutely could have (and should have) kept Hamilton.

Issue with keeping Dougie was always term. This team isn't going to sacrifice future success for current success, they make moves to keep this team a contender every year indefinitely. Orlov being only 2 years with 1 of those being a year we were sitting on a bunch of cap space without any other great options to utilize that cap space is the key difference. Not really apples and oranges, and signing Orlov doesn't mean anything about what we could/should have done with Dougie. And I'll gladly argue that Orlov's history before we signed him was a clear cut better player than Dougie prior to the Devils signing him. And not only significantly less term, but also a cheaper cap hit.

 

[Ole Gil]

The Staal line literally is there to eat clock and not much else. I hope that line can at least be a threat in the coming months.

Until they get hot, and put the team on their back for 20 or 30 games, and a couple rounds of the playoffs like they do every year.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It does help to choose Slavin over Dougie when one is making half of what the other is.

I was one of the ones who advocated against re-signing Dougie, because I felt $9 million was insane for what he brought. And that held up until this past offseason, where we offered Orlov 7.5 to play on our bottom pair. Now I feel like if we could afford to do that, we absolutely could have (and should have) kept Hamilton.

I think the board universally felt that Dougie or $9M for 7 years was too much and I still do.

Re: Orlov, that's not really comparable.
1) Dougie's contract is not only $1.5M more, it was for 7 years and has NMC/NTC protection. A lot less risk in a 2 year deal with Orlov with no NTC/NMC protections.
2) Orlov is a stop gap for when/if we lose Skjei or Pesce (and we will lose at least 1) until one of the younger guys is ready.
3) Orlov brings an element that IMO, will be better suited to playoff hockey.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I think the board universally felt that Dougie or $9M for 7 years was too much and I still do.

Re: Orlov, that's not really comparable.
1) Dougie's contract is not only $1.5M more, it was for 7 years and has NMC/NTC protection. A lot less risk in a 2 year deal with Orlov with no NTC/NMC protections.
2) Orlov is a stop gap for when/if we lose Skjei or Pesce (and we will lose at least 1) until one of the younger guys is ready.
3) Orlov brings an element that IMO, will be better suited to playoff hockey.

Skjei is the likely departure. Orlov and then Nikishin are his successors. Pesce is more questionable but IMO depends on if the Canes view Chatfield as a potential top-4 piece. If they view him as a possible solution, they IMO walk Pesce, sign Chatfield for 4 years, and bring along another guy on a short-term/relatively high dollar contract to compete for that spot. If they don't, then they sign Pesce, walk Chatfield, and sign cheap bottom-pair guys.

 

[Borsig]

Sorry - Hamilton is just not impressive.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

I think the board universally felt that Dougie or $9M for 7 years was too much and I still do.

Re: Orlov, that's not really comparable.
1) Dougie's contract is not only $1.5M more, it was for 7 years and has NMC/NTC protection. A lot less risk in a 2 year deal with Orlov with no NTC/NMC protections.
2) Orlov is a stop gap for when/if we lose Skjei or Pesce (and we will lose at least 1) until one of the younger guys is ready.
3) Orlov brings an element that IMO, will be better suited to playoff hockey.

I can't think of anyone who has actually watched both Orlov and Dougie play in the playoffs who wouldn't agree that Orlov is a significantly better playoff player.

 

[cptjeff]

It's odd, though, that Carolina, possibly the most analytically-driven team in the entire NHL, would hold onto Slavin as their treasured piece over Dougie Hamilton. Perhaps public analytics over-value offensive D over shutdown D, and it skews the earnings power that the elite offensive D get? In fact, outside of their drafted offensive group, most of the trade and UFA improvements have been defense über alles.

2 things: First, earnings isn't just an aside, it's everything. Contract efficency is how you maximize skill on a team. Dougie is getting paid an asinine amount of money for the value he offers to a team. Slavin is flat out underpaid. Part of that is absolutely that the league overvalues offensive defenseman. Maybe part of that is some advanced stat saying offense is more valuable than pure defense, but mostly I think it's just 'ooh, shiny'.

Which leads me to point two: We don't use public models much, if at all, and Tulsky has completely dismissed shot attempt based stats and has said we have not used them at all for years. And stats tend to bias towards what they can measure, and measuring offense has a lot more data points than measuring defense, so a lot of those "offense is more valuable than defense" conclusions are likely significantly influenced by measurement biases. Tulsky may not buy that for one second. Or he may, but may have found that focusing on defensive skill gets so much more bang for your buck due to the league misvaluing those skills that it's worth the tradeoff.

But it should shock no one that we'll take an elite defensive D over the one dimensional offensive guy who you have to pay twice as much money every day and twice on Sunday.

And remember, we were prepared to pay Hamilton a generous amount of money, and more than Slavin. Other teams in the league were just willing to go to absurdities because they saw what Edmonton did with Nurse and decided that that was the recipe for success.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

2 things: First, earnings isn't just an aside, it's everything. Contract efficency is how you maximize skill on a team. Dougie is getting paid an asinine amount of money for the value he offers to a team. Slavin is flat out underpaid. Part of that is absolutely that the league overvalues offensive defenseman. Maybe part of that is some advanced stat saying offense is more valuable than pure defense, but mostly I think it's just 'ooh, shiny'.

Which leads me to point two: We don't use public models much, if at all, and Tulsky has completely dismissed shot attempt based stats and has said we have not used them at all for years. And stats tend to bias towards what they can measure, and measuring offense has a lot more data points than measuring defense, so a lot of those "offense is more valuable than defense" conclusions are likely significantly influenced by measurement biases. Tulsky may not buy that for one second. Or he may, but may have found that focusing on defensive skill gets so much more bang for your buck due to the league misvaluing those skills that it's worth the tradeoff.

But it should shock no one that we'll take an elite defensive D over the one dimensional offensive guy who you have to pay twice as much money every day and twice on Sunday.

And remember, we were prepared to pay Hamilton a generous amount of money, and more than Slavin. Other teams in the league were just willing to go to absurdities because they saw what Edmonton did with Nurse and decided that that was the recipe for success.

One correction: Nurse was signed after Hamilton. The REAL cap explosion that offseason came from another albatross contract: Seth Jones.

 

[LakeLivin]

I call bullshit! I've heard it from reliable sources that Brindy has lost the room.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I call bullshit. I've heard it from reliable sources that Brindy has lost the room.

Well, in fairness, Lemieux hasn’t been in the room, he’s been in the press box, so it checks out.

 

[bleedgreen]

I sometimes forget that Chatfield is only 1.5 years younger than Pesce. Less mileage for sure, but at this age, will he be willing to sign for what the Canes would want to sign him for? I clearly don't know what he's thinking, but he continues to play the way he has been, this would be his best chance for a big payday and I'd go for it.

Could easily be his only chance. Comes down to how he’s viewed in the league. Someone paying him to be top four without ever seeing him do it would be an interesting risk to take.

I think the best play is to keep doing what we did to get him. Keep evaluating pro talent to identify an underutilized player that could surprise and take an everyday job away from someone for cheap. Straight out of JR’s playbook ironically. Francis as well for that matter. We’ve always had guys others slept on but turned into solid players for us on defense.

Signing that guy to big money to take the next step into top four can easily be a step too far.

 

[ndp]

Until they get hot, and put the team on their back for 20 or 30 games, and a couple rounds of the playoffs like they do every year.

Tripp is that you?