Speculation: Carolina

[NotOpie]

Their goaltending is once again completely sus relying on an injury prone 35 year old to play 50+ games or else they have a goalie with 60 NHL games of experience.

Don't understand why people think Andersen is going to be the starter. At best, he's likely to be the 1b behind Kochetkov. If any of those two gets 50+ games, it will be Pyotr.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Don't understand why people think Andersen is going to be the starter. At best, he's likely to be the 1b behind Kochetkov. If any of those two gets 50+ games, it will be Pyotr.

Exactly. He played 42 last reg season so no reason to believe he doesn't play at least that amount this year. I expect a fairly even platoon situation but if all things equal then I think Pyotr get more starts unless he falters and Andersen is putting up stellar numbers.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Don't understand why people think Andersen is going to be the starter. At best, he's likely to be the 1b behind Kochetkov. If any of those two gets 50+ games, it will be Pyotr.

Either they are relying on a guy with 60 NHL games or a guy who is on the wrong side of 30 with an extensive recent injury history. Andersen hasn't had a fully healthy season in what, 5 or 6 years? Now you subtract the defense without really improving up front and think nothing will change.

More than likely Rod is going to have to change the system because he will find the new players can't reliably do what he needs of them.

 

[HisIceness]

The trade is 1 for 1, Necas for McDavid.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Either they are relying on a guy with 60 NHL games or a guy who is on the wrong side of 30 with an extensive recent injury history. Andersen hasn't had a fully healthy season in what, 5 or 6 years? Now you subtract the defense without really improving up front and think nothing will change.

More than likely Rod is going to have to change the system because he will find the new players can't reliably do what he needs of them.

Again... the defense is not a significant downgrade from last year most likely. Every year since 2018 the Canes have had some sort of tandem or goalie trio and it has worked out fine. This year is no different. Kochetkov has improved overall each year he has played. Maybe he doesn't this upcoming year but there's no reason to think he can't play near the same level he has in his NHL career which is a .910% / 2.37 GA.

You're a lot more worried about it than we are so that should tell you something.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Again... the defense is not a significant downgrade from last year most likely.

"Most likely" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here

Every year since 2018 the Canes have had some sort of tandem or goalie trio and it has worked out fine. This year is no different.

Has it? It has pretty clearly been the clear weakness of the roster and arguably why they have never gone as deep as they should have. No matter how well they defended when they got to later rounds, the other teams could defend that way as well but had way better goaltending.

Kochetkov has improved overall each year he has played. Maybe he doesn't this upcoming year but there's no reason to think he can't play near the same level he has in his NHL career which is a .910% / 2.37 GA.

Aside from the fact he has never played more than 40 games in a season and that was with an elite defensive team in front of him that "most likely" will happen again this year.

You're a lot more worried about it than we are so that should tell you something.

Just talking hockey anyway it comes in the dog days of summer.

 

[bleedgreen]

"Most likely" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here


Has it? It has pretty clearly been the clear weakness of the roster and arguably why they have never gone as deep as they should have. No matter how well they defended when they got to later rounds, the other teams could defend that way as well but had way better goaltending.



Aside from the fact he has never played more than 40 games in a season and that was with an elite defensive team in front of him that "most likely" will happen again this year.



Just talking hockey anyway it comes in the dog days of summer.

Meh. I always thought the lack of scoring and the disappearing act the pp pulls in the playoffs as the real culprit. Requires near perfection from the goalies. Anderson has let the team down in the playoffs a bit, but a team that had more pop wouldn’t require so much.

No one would complain about a better goalie but I’d argue there hasn’t been much out there that would for sure help us and for a price that isn’t ridiculous.

 

[StewieP19]

I'm not fan of both team but Carolina are build to lose again vs NY Rangers.
The need to add to become a cup contender

 

[NotOpie]

Aside from the fact he has never played more than 40 games in a season and that was with an elite defensive team in front of him that "most likely" will happen again this year.

Kotchetkov is only 25 years old and was Calder eligible last season. He's arriving at the age and experience where most effective goalies reside.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

"Most likely" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here


Has it? It has pretty clearly been the clear weakness of the roster and arguably why they have never gone as deep as they should have. No matter how well they defended when they got to later rounds, the other teams could defend that way as well but had way better goaltending.



Aside from the fact he has never played more than 40 games in a season and that was with an elite defensive team in front of him that "most likely" will happen again this year.



Just talking hockey anyway it comes in the dog days of summer.

How is 'most likely' doing heavy lifting?

Canes will have a D-core that looks something like this.

Slavin - Burns
Orlov - Chat/Walker
Ghost - Chat/Walker

Losing Skjei is big but Orlov moves into his spot and wouldn't shock me to see him perform similarly. Exactly the same impact? Likely not but Orlov played really well for the team in the 2nd half of the season and was strong in the playoffs as well. There's not much of a downgrade there and we know he works well with Chatfield who likely continues to improve.

At this point the drop off from Pesce to Walker is negligible if any, and you could make a very strong case that Walker is the better overall defenseman right now. Pesce has heavy miles on him and is also an injury concern. Based on style of play I wouldn't be surprised to see his effectiveness fall off quite a bit in the next couple years.

Ghost comes back to a system and situation he played well in 2 years ago after the trade deadline and gives us a needed boost on the powerplay.

The D-core isn't as deep as last season but might be better skilled in certain areas. The biggest area is re-configuring the PK pairings which Skjei and Pesce were a large part of but the talent is definitely there to put something solid together. It's still a strong D-core.

As to your point about goaltending letting them down in the playoffs, you could make that case for the series losses to the Rangers. One with Raanta and last year with Freddie. The year before he was excellent but was outdueled by Bob who was otherworldly. That's not on Freddie. The team couldn't score and that has usually been the reasoning behind them not making it to the cup finals. They have still made the ECF twice in the past 6 years. They've just lost to better teams. Boston, Tampa, Florida, etc. They had more skill and high end fire power to get it done.

Your point on Kochetkov... he played 42 games last year so you're already wrong about your numbers. He's improved every year he's been in the league. Logically that should continue but even if it doesn't he's still shown to be a capable NHL goalie. Him and Freddie splitting 41 + 41 will be fine and if one of them plays great then they can play more. It's a system that has worked for the Canes in the regular season for a while now.

Feel free to hockey talk as much as you like in the summer or anytime of the year. Just try to be more accurate and based in reality in what you write.

I'm not fan of both team but Carolina are build to lose again vs NY Rangers.
The need to add to become a cup contender

Unlikely we lose to the Rangers this year. Probably will lose to another team though.

 

[HockeyVirus]

How is 'most likely' doing heavy lifting?

Canes will have a D-core that looks something like this.

Slavin - Burns
Orlov - Chat/Walker
Ghost - Chat/Walker

This Dcore is god awful man. Burns is gunna be 40 years old. There is a better chance he is on the bottom pairing by xmas than top. Orlov had an inconsistent season and is 33 himself which is when a lot of dmen start slowing down. You are counting on vets to not regress at all because the rest of the roster has regressed so much.

The defensive side of the puck of that Dcore is putrid.

At this point the drop off from Pesce to Walker is negligible if any, and you could make a very strong case that Walker is the better overall defenseman right now. Pesce has heavy miles on him and is also an injury concern. Based on style of play I wouldn't be surprised to see his effectiveness fall off quite a bit in the next couple years.

Complete revisionism. All we heard was how great he was and then now that he left, suddenly fans say he was never any good. Walker is a small dman who was on the bottom pair for Colorado.

Ghost comes back to a system and situation he played well in 2 years ago after the trade deadline and gives us a needed boost on the powerplay.

He's a #6/7 PP specialist.

The D-core isn't as deep as last season but might be better skilled in certain areas. The biggest area is re-configuring the PK pairings which Skjei and Pesce were a large part of but the talent is definitely there to put something solid together. It's still a strong D-core.

I disagree.

As to your point about goaltending letting them down in the playoffs, you could make that case for the series losses to the Rangers. One with Raanta and last year with Freddie. The year before he was excellent but was outdueled by Bob who was otherworldly. That's not on Freddie. The team couldn't score and that has usually been the reasoning behind them not making it to the cup finals. They have still made the ECF twice in the past 6 years. They've just lost to better teams. Boston, Tampa, Florida, etc. They had more skill and high end fire power to get it done.

End of the day, the weakness in net will be even more pronounced. Trust me as a fan of a team with a mediocre Dcore and goaltending that has been hit or miss

Your point on Kochetkov... he played 42 games last year so you're already wrong about your numbers. He's improved every year he's been in the league. Logically that should continue but even if it doesn't he's still shown to be a capable NHL goalie. Him and Freddie splitting 41 + 41 will be fine and if one of them plays great then they can play more. It's a system that has worked for the Canes in the regular season for a while now.

I would be shocked if Freddy played more than 30 games

 

[Chrispy]

Has it? It has pretty clearly been the clear weakness of the roster and arguably why they have never gone as deep as they should have. No matter how well they defended when they got to later rounds, the other teams could defend that way as well but had way better goaltending.

2018-19: Wild Card, beat Metro #1 Washington and Metro #2 NYI, lost to Boston in conference finals. Deeper than they "should have" by any metric.

19-20: 6 seed. Beat the rangers, lost to 4 seed Boston in the second round. Not overperforming, but certainly went as far as they "should have" based on regular season results.

20-21: First divisional title. Beat Nashville in the first round, lost to defending and eventual Stanley Cup champ Tampa in the second round. Finished 5 points clear of Tampa on the season; a tough match but not a shocking upset by any stretch especially given it was the defending champs who went on to win it all.

21-22: Second divisional title. Beat Boston in 7 games, lost to the Rangers (6 points behind in the regular season) in 7 games with their second and third string goalies after a late season Andersen injury. Again, they "should" beat the Rangers with their 2nd and 3rd string goalies? This is the one where goalie may have cost them, but due to an unfortunate injury.

22-23: Third divisional title. Made the conference final, beating the 2 seed Devils in the second round. Lost to the great Florida postseason run in a series where Andersen was outstanding in goal.

23-24: Metro #2, beat metro #3 and lost in 6 to the divisional winning Rangers. Again a close race (only 3 points difference) but not a "should have gone further" when you play the President's Trophy winner in the second round.

In short, the "upsets" were defending Stanley Cup champs in Tampa, a Rangers team 6 points behind them while playing their second and third string goalies, and the Florida run that started with beating the best regular season team in a generation in Boston. Hardly shocking upsets that were indicative of major issues.

Saying this run in total is an example of "never going as far as they should" is simply intellectual dishonesty.

 

[Theodore450]

Canes could easily make a splash for a forward at the trade deadline after they accrue some cap space. The lineup isn't that far off from the pre-Guentzel one, especially if Fast can get healthy in a few months. Also, Orlov is 33, not 35. The Canes have also drafted a ton of young guys since 2019, and there's a real possibility that a few of the young AHL forwards take another step and become NHLers. Finally, Kotkaniemi only just turned 24, and there's still a real chance that he could put it all together in a best-case scenario season.

The moment you said Kk, I knew you where grasping at straws

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

This Dcore is god awful man. Burns is gunna be 40 years old. There is a better chance he is on the bottom pairing by xmas than top. Orlov had an inconsistent season and is 33 himself which is when a lot of dmen start slowing down. You are counting on vets to not regress at all because the rest of the roster has regressed so much.

The defensive side of the puck of that Dcore is putrid.


Complete revisionism. All we heard was how great he was and then now that he left, suddenly fans say he was never any good. Walker is a small dman who was on the bottom pair for Colorado.


He's a #6/7 PP specialist.


I disagree.

End of the day, the weakness in net will be even more pronounced. Trust me as a fan of a team with a mediocre Dcore and goaltending that has been hit or miss


I would be shocked if Freddy played more than 30 games

We have differing opinions on some of the defensemen and that’s fine.

I agree that Burns is not top pairing caliber anymore but he and Slavin work well together and they know their roles.

I think you’re really underrating Orlov. He’s built like a tank and he should replace Skjei fairly well.

Pesce has been declining and injury prone the last few years. Walker and Chatfield could be better than him this season.

Ghost is out #6 and PP guy so that’s exactly am where he should be.

Maybe the team falls flat on their face but the moves they made to fill departures in theory should do a pretty good job of not having the floor fall out from under them.

It’s a transition year. Morrow and Nikishin coming into the league after this year and a ton of cap off the books to spend on free agents or take on salary in trades

 

[Slapshottothehead]

Canes are in for a down year before reloading for next year. They wont worry too much about this year as they have a lot of young talent that need spots to play and time to mature.

Next summer i see them dipping into the free agent pool and adding nikishin will be a hugh add.

The team will quickly become a cup contender.... probably 2-3 years away but they will be back.

There was little reason to bring back the entire group and put them selves in cap hell. Young talent is on the way....

 

[Marlowe Syn]

Not extending Guentzal was quite the letdown. Not sure exactly what went down. If the difference between him re-signing as opposed to going to Tampa was a $1M AAV, well that is a bit frustrating. Especially with that extra year with Carolina's offer.

I'm definitely not thrilled with it projecting to have Roslovic and/or Kotkaniemi in our top6. I've petty much given up on Kots being that #2C/W I was hoping he would late bloom into. I hope he surprises, but I'm not expecting any more from him than he has shown.

Is Jack Drury the answer at #2C? I think we'll will find out.

I don't care how it's spun, but the Canes blueline took a big hit. Losing our second pairing is really going to bite us this season. Skjei/Pesce >>> Ghost/Walker. Burns is one helluva an athlete, but 39 is still 39, and he is going to logging a ton of minutes this season. Maybe Orlov and Walker will mesh well together on the second pair.

Goalie situation is hoping Freddie can stay healthy and Kochetkov will take the next step. If Freddie does go down there is always a goalie available in the league at least.

Now Carolina has one of the best coaches in hockey in Brind'Amour. I am biased, as I've been a fan of him since he rocked the Orange like a boss. He'll get max results, but he has a roster that is a little more swiss cheesy.


This is still a very good team and I expect them to finish top three in the Metro, but I don't see them in a serious SC contender status. There are few "ifs" and "maybes" involved with this rosters as I see it.

 

[samsagat]

As usual, there will be surprises this year and Carolina might be one of them (not making the playoffs).

I don't say that it's a sure thing, but they've lost a few important players and don't have much depth.

Plus there's a few up and coming teams that could have a "perfect storm" year and eject some teams that qualified from the playoffs. Teams on a downtrend.

Devils, Sabres, Detroit, Ottawa and even the Habs are teams that could surprise and qualify in the east.

We're on the verge of a power switch in the NHL.

A lot of perennial playoff teams are getting older and a lot of rebuilding teams are getting close to being dominant, or at least competitive.

 

[TheBigLetowski]

As a Canes fan i think they battle for 3 Met/ 1st WC. I think they are slow out of the gate because of all the changeover, but get it together by thanksgiving. They have massive amounts of cash next year and Nikishin jumping likely into the top 4 replacing Orlov. Barring some sort of revelation with KK or Necas at 2C, I am hoping they finally go for a legit 2C they've been missing since Trocheck left.

 

[Drake1588]

It's been widely reported that they tried to do more this summer, cap space or no (add a real gem, and you can always go over in the summer and trade to become compliant later in the summer), but they didn't land some of the fish for whom they set lines. They couldn't persuade Guentzel to stay either.

Very good team. Probably lacking some pieces to be a top contender (another top center, a goaltender, etc). They will be active at the trade deadline, as I don't think management believes they're a leading contender either. Yet we've seen teams like that go on surprise runs to a Cup before now.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

As usual, there will be surprises this year and Carolina might be one of them (not making the playoffs).

I don't say that it's a sure thing, but they've lost a few important players and don't have much depth.

Plus there's a few up and coming teams that could have a "perfect storm" year and eject some teams that qualified from the playoffs. Teams on a downtrend.

Devils, Sabres, Detroit, Ottawa and even the Habs are teams that could surprise and qualify in the east.

We're on the verge of a power switch in the NHL.

A lot of perennial playoff teams are getting older and a lot of rebuilding teams are getting close to being dominant, or at least competitive.

Anything can happen but Carolina has generally always performed better than the sum of their parts. No superstars. Just solid lineups with strong game plan and team play.

The core knows how to get things done in the regular season and they know their roles. The team is built with having certain pillars in place and then the parts around can be somewhat interchangeable based on skill set.

Losing Skjei and Pesce is a big change but there are pieces in place to take over from that. Orlov will take on a bigger role, Chatfield continues to improve each year. Walker is a very good add to the backend which mitigates that to a degree. Ghost gives the powerplay a more dynamic option from the back end. The defense is different but still good.

Kochetkov had a strong finish to his year and continues to improve each year. Him and Andersen should have no problem splitting the crease and being effective.

Svech, Jarvis, Necas all need to have big years and they are capable of it. Svech has to stay healthy, Jarvis needs to continue his path and Necas needs to find consistency. There is work to be done to make sure all this happens but it’s absolutely possible based on the players and their abilities.

Agree with others in that Metro 3 is likely the target or WC 1. I think we all expect NYR and NJD to battle for 1-2. Don’t see any of those other teams being in the same tier as Carolina though.