Speculation: Carolina

[TGWL]

Roslovic has a lot of skill and can skate through for zone entries. Unfortunately, he doesn't shoot the puck enough and he is a fly-by type of player, unless he accidentally bumps into you. He has hands and can actually rip the puck, but doesn't do it often.

 

[squashmaple]

This is far more discussion of Roslovic than he deserves. He's a middle-six RW with some elite skills who's hampered by his utter lack of hockey sense. He'll be fine playing in a system with a strong center and a power forward on his other wing. If Carolina can do that, it's a good signing.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Roslovic doesn’t have to be anything more than a placeholder. He was an offseason signing, not a deadline add.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

The Canes have ~$8.25M in cap space if Nadeau and Morrow (both of whom are ELCs that can be optioned without waivers) are in the AHL. That should be enough to sign Jarvis to an 8 year contract even without Fast on LTIR.

Do we know Jarvis wants to sign for 8.

If I am Jarvis I'd bet on myself and go after the bridge with the cap moving up.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

he is a poor defender with some offensive skills who has been given a larger role than he should on a bad columbus team. having him on a top line without top line defense or offense is a bad idea.

Why not? If Teravainen was able to fill that role, why couldn't Roslovic? His offense is plenty good to be a complimentary guy on a top line.

Obviously it's not ideal, but Necas and Aho really don't work, Roslovic and Necas are both weak defensive wingers who are great puck carriers, so you probably want then separated, and you don't want Roslovic on your shut down line.

Leaves 1RW as the most natural spot for him to fill, and he's plenty capable of filling it.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Why not? If Teravainen was able to fill that role, why couldn't Roslovic? His offense is plenty good to be a complimentary guy on a top line.

Obviously it's not ideal, but Necas and Aho really don't work, Roslovic and Necas are both weak defensive wingers who are great puck carriers, so you probably want then separated, and you don't want Roslovic on your shut down line.

Leaves 1RW as the most natural spot for him to fill, and he's plenty capable of filling it.

Turbo is a much better defender that allowed Aho to do Aho things offensively. Roslovic is Necas bad defensively without the elite level offense.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Turbo is a much better defender that allowed Aho to do Aho things offensively. Roslovic is Necas bad defensively without the elite level offense.

He's not that bad defensively, his relative xG% numbers have been positive in 5 of his last 6 seasons... He just had a really bad 2022-23 under rookie head coach Brad Larsen.

Necas is a worse defender by a nontrivial margin.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

He's not that bad defensively, his relative xG% numbers have been positive in 5 of his last 6 seasons... He just had a really bad 2022-23 under rookie head coach Brad Larsen.

View attachment 898001

Necas is a worse defender by a nontrivial margin.

Using relative numbers doesn’t help when the team is chalked full of poor defensive players

 

[Bizz]

Carolina should stop being pretenders and just blow it up.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Carolina should stop being pretenders and just blow it up.

I feel like they just did that.

Youth movement 2.0 is on the move.

 

[krutovsdonut]

This makes a lot of sense. Carolina is a preferred destination for free agents so I have no doubt they'll be able to load up once they have the cap space to do so.

username czechs out

 

[StreetHawk]

Do we know Jarvis wants to sign for 8.

If I am Jarvis I'd bet on myself and go after the bridge with the cap moving up.

Depends on the number. He's 22 now. So, max term deal takes him to age 30. I'd probably lean towards a 6-7 year deal to get to 28-29. That's really the ideal leverage age to get a max term deal on the 3rd contract. With Carolina's track record of letting guys go who hit their later 20's, you don't want to push into your 30's in your 2nd contract with them. Aho was 27 when he began his 3rd contract. Slavin will be 31 and his AAV reflects his age that he will be throughout that deal.

Can't bet that you get that 8th year from Carolina.

Can the 2 sides agree on a number that makes sense for both sides. Should be at a number that even if Jarvis outperforms it, he'll be content, same from CAR side should be not produce at that number.

 

[Svechhammer]

This is a year where we are likely setting the table for 2025 and beyond.

If we content this year it'll be a surprise. We're not planning on it, and we're not really trying to make it happen. We are in a holding pattern for a bit until Nikishin is able to come over, who many are expecting to step in and immediately handle at least 2nd line defensive minutes, and Morrow coming in to give us a great puck moving option on the blue line as well. And we have a glut of good wingers that should be ready to break out into the NHL in the next 12 months or so, we just need to see which ones are ready to make that step.

This year we'll likely roll with Kochetkov starting and see how he handles it. We're not really worried, he's been excellent for us in the past and he's one of those goalies who plays better with the more games he gets under his belt. He's ready to start for us. And even then, we might have a better goalie in the farm with Khazheyev already signed to an ELC. He's been putting up great numbers elsewhere, has eye opening comparables, and looked good in prospect camp.

And not only that, but we should have a ton of money to throw around in Free Agency next year where there projects to be a few huge names available. We'd be one of the few able to give Draisaitl 7 years at market value without needing to make other moves should he not extend with Edmonton.

But yeah, this year there's an expectation of a step back. But that expectation is that the one step back this year is followed by 2 or more steps forward the year after.

 

[NotOpie]

You would put Necas and Aho together? They seem to have terrible chemistry.

Necas and Aho have played well together, just haven't been on the same line that often. As was stated, when they got the extended look, Necas performed at above a point per game pace. While it isn't reality, the chemistry they displayed in 3 on 3 overtime was amazing. Necas is an overtime cheat code.

Right now the Canes are missing a true 2LW. Currently the thought is that one of the youngsters (Unger-Sorum, Nadeau, Blake, even Suzuki with Trikozov being a wild card) may fill that role. I've even see some folks pencil in Robinson or Martinook in that role. It is doubtful that Jarvis will play LW. So the Canes will either promote one of the young guys, trade for a guy, or dance with the players they've got.

I doubt Roslovic will play on the 1st line. Jarvis proved his chemistry with Aho, but many of us think that 1RW is Necas's role for the upcoming season. He wants a bigger role and while he may want to slot in at center, there's nothing in his playing history that suggests he could be the 2C (but stranger things have happened). So 1st lie ice time and PP1 time gives him an opportunity to shine.

Jarvis put up a surprising amount of points on the 3rd line w/Staal and Martinook, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him reprise that role. IMO or top 3 RWs are Necas, Jarvis, and Roslovic in some combo. It's he missing left wing that is currently the issue.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Canes defense is going to be fine. Will it be elite like it has been the past 5 years? No, but unlikely that it will be something that holds them back.

Slavin is Slavin. Burns is old and really shouldn't be playing top pairing minutes but they work well together and they each know their roles and what is needed for them to be successful.

Orlov got better and better as the year went on and as he got more comfortable with the Carolina system. I expect him to have similar impact as Skjei on the 2nd pairing, maybe not quite as good overall, but he seems to be the type of D-man that does better with more leash and time to manoeuvre. The guy is a tank and loves to skate with the puck and also throw big hits. He can be a game changer.

Chatfield/Walker/Ghost is a perfectly capable bottom 3 for your d-core and it will just be a case of finding the right chemistry. We know Orlov and Chat work together so that may be the default 2nd pair while Walker and Ghost are the 3rd pair. Ghost will help on the PP dramatically and Walker is just a good all-round player.

Kochetkov is also getting better and better so this year will probably see a fairly even platoon situation with Freddie and depending on who's playing better they will get more of the net. The more he plays the better he has gotten overall even if it hasn't been a straight line progression. He was dreadful early last season and then after the new year turned over he was amazing. 24 y/o and a .910 SV% over 69 reg season games (nice).

So, all in all Canes should be fine keeping pucks out of the net. Guys like Necas and Svech need to step up big this year to provide more offense and Drury/Koko improving offensively would help as well.

 

[HockeyVirus]

To be honest it sounds like some major copium to hear Canes fans claim they haven't changed very much. They lost 2 top 4 dmen and replaced them with clear downgrades. They lost a bunch of depth up front as well. Their goaltending is once again completely sus relying on an injury prone 35 year old to play 50+ games or else they have a goalie with 60 NHL games of experience.

They already were struggling last season (to the point there was speculation of Rod's firing) before they managed to turn it around and have a strong finish. I easily see a scenario where they are in the 2nd wildcard spot or just outside.

Canes defense is going to be fine. Will it be elite like it has been the past 5 years? No, but unlikely that it will be something that holds them back.

And this is the problem. Canes are basically built to be an elite defensive team and are no longer that. They lack the goaltending to win the games, instead relying on strong defense to cover for average goalies. And they don't have any firepower up front to outscore other teams.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Depends on the number. He's 22 now. So, max term deal takes him to age 30. I'd probably lean towards a 6-7 year deal to get to 28-29. That's really the ideal leverage age to get a max term deal on the 3rd contract. With Carolina's track record of letting guys go who hit their later 20's, you don't want to push into your 30's in your 2nd contract with them. Aho was 27 when he began his 3rd contract. Slavin will be 31 and his AAV reflects his age that he will be throughout that deal.

Can't bet that you get that 8th year from Carolina.

Can the 2 sides agree on a number that makes sense for both sides. Should be at a number that even if Jarvis outperforms it, he'll be content, same from CAR side should be not produce at that number.

Just that it was his 3rd year. He scored over 30 goals. Apparently was injured during the year as well.

I just wonder if he looks at what a player like Byfield did.

Yes he is older so UFA is at age 26

Maybe he looks at a 2 to 5 year deal. I just think any offer at 6 7 or 8 years he will be missing out on millions.

 

[BKarchitect]

More than Necas rebounding, I want to see Svech take it to the next level for a full season. Minus the missed games, he's been basically a 30 goal, 70 point player the last three seasons which is a really solid baseline...and he scored 11 points in 11 games during the playoffs (albeit only 2 goals).

But I think a 30 goal, 70 point winger who has trouble playing 80 games is a pretty massive disappointment from where most of us expected him to be. His toolbox is immense. I want to see him put together an absolute star campaign over a full season. And I think that as much as anything would make Carolina look much more real as a threat to win it all.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

To be honest it sounds like some major copium to hear Canes fans claim they haven't changed very much. They lost 2 top 4 dmen and replaced them with clear downgrades. They lost a bunch of depth up front as well. Their goaltending is once again completely sus relying on an injury prone 35 year old to play 50+ games or else they have a goalie with 60 NHL games of experience.

They already were struggling last season (to the point there was speculation of Rod's firing) before they managed to turn it around and have a strong finish. I easily see a scenario where they are in the 2nd wildcard spot or just outside.



And this is the problem. Canes are basically built to be an elite defensive team and are no longer that. They lack the goaltending to win the games, instead relying on strong defense to cover for average goalies. And they don't have any firepower up front to outscore other teams.

The defense isn't as good as last year but not by that much. Orlov replaces Skjei and that should be fine for the most part. Walker replaces Pesce and to be honest is probably an upgrade. Chatfield is Chatfield so that's even and he probably gets better. Ghost provides a different skillset than we had last year and should give the PP a good boost. It's not as good but it's close. Unlikely that goaltending and D will be a problem. Kochetkov is getting better and better as well. Andersen is still fine to platoon.

The offense needs to reconfigure somewhat and that's a fair concern.

 

[StreetHawk]

Just that it was his 3rd year. He scored over 30 goals. Apparently was injured during the year as well.

I just wonder if he looks at what a player like Byfield did.

Yes he is older so UFA is at age 26

Maybe he looks at a 2 to 5 year deal. I just think any offer at 6 7 or 8 years he will be missing out on millions.

Also, the security factor. If it's 6 or 7 years at $8 mill AAV, that's $48 or $56 mill for sure (barring a buyout, but he can try to get some SB in that deal). Always a never know moving forward. Up to him, if he feels that he's getting a number that makes sense to him. CAR historically does go term on the 2nd contract if they like the player.

 

[Chrispy]

More than Necas rebounding, I want to see Svech take it to the next level for a full season. Minus the missed games, he's been basically a 30 goal, 70 point player the last three seasons which is a really solid baseline...and he scored 11 points in 11 games during the playoffs (albeit only 2 goals).

But I think a 30 goal, 70 point winger who has trouble playing 80 games is a pretty massive disappointment from where most of us expected him to be. His toolbox is immense. I want to see him put together an absolute star campaign over a full season. And I think that as much as anything would make Carolina look much more real as a threat to win it all.

Svechnikov was recovering from a torn ACL in March 2023. Coming back early in the 23-24 season was incredibly aggressive and probably led to him missing some games this season.

That said, the ACL tear was the first time in Svechnikov's career he had missed significant regular season games:
82/82 games in 18-19.
68/68 games in 19-20.
55/56 games in 20-21.
78/82 games in 21-22.

64/82 games in 22-23 (tore his ACL in game 64, so 64/64 until then)
59/82 games this year, where he was coming back from a post-trade deadline ACL tear.

I'm not worried about Svechnikov's durability with a full off-season to rest and train. And with that off-season, I suspect we will look back on 23-24 as a rehab season from the ACL tear and see him take another step forward at age 24.

 

[BKarchitect]

Svechnikov was recovering from a torn ACL in March 2023. Coming back early in the 23-24 season was incredibly aggressive and probably led to him missing some games this season.

That said, the ACL tear was the first time in Svechnikov's career he had missed significant regular season games:
82/82 games in 18-19.
62/62 games in 19-20.
55/56 games in 20-21.
78/82 games in 21-22.

64/82 games in 22-23 until he tore his ACL.
59/82 games this year, where he was coming back from a post-trade deadline ACL tear.

I'm not worried about Svechnikov's durability with a full off-season to rest and train. And with that off-season, I suspect we will look back on 23-24 as a rehab season from the ACL tear and see him take another step forward at age 24.

Lol...I was probably not factoring in COVID on the seasons.

Hopefully he is healthy and takes that next step this year.

 

[HockeyVirus]

The defense isn't as good as last year but not by that much. Orlov replaces Skjei and that should be fine for the most part. Walker replaces Pesce and to be honest is probably an upgrade. Chatfield is Chatfield so that's even and he probably gets better. Ghost provides a different skillset than we had last year and should give the PP a good boost. It's not as good but it's close. Unlikely that goaltending and D will be a problem. Kochetkov is getting better and better as well. Andersen is still fine to platoon.

The offense needs to reconfigure somewhat and that's a fair concern.

We will see. I just won't be surprised to see some decent regression. Devils will be better than they were, Canes to me are a wildcard team.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

We will see. I just won't be surprised to see some decent regression. Devils will be better than they were, Canes to me are a wildcard team.

Ya, I don't see them winning the division for sure and 2nd is going to be tough as well. Metro will be a strong division this year as Washington has improved as well. I probably have them at 3 in the division but WC isn't out of the question.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Also, the security factor. If it's 6 or 7 years at $8 mill AAV, that's $48 or $56 mill for sure (barring a buyout, but he can try to get some SB in that deal). Always a never know moving forward. Up to him, if he feels that he's getting a number that makes sense to him. CAR historically does go term on the 2nd contract if they like the player.

He can definitely go for that 8x7 or 8x8 if he wants.

Necas who I am told was worse than Jarvis just got 6.5.


If I am Jarvis I ask for like 5 or 6 million for 3 years.

Secures him for life right there.