Friedman: Carolina likely to offer an 8 year, $100+ M contract to Rantanen before the deadline

[eco's bones]

It's a very good offer but if Rantanen decides to wait for July 1 he'll probably get 13.5/14 anyway. He'll have to give up a year---sign for 7 instead of 8. But some team will offer something in that neighborhood. Perhaps even higher if there are multiple teams ready to do that. There's the probability that other upper tier teams will try to sign him too. Carolina is one of the better regular season teams but they've been pretty much a second round and out team when it comes to the playoffs. Bringing back Rantanen won't be their only issue for next year----they'll probably have to shore up their defense again and they have iffy goaltending.

They gave up a lot for Rantanen. If they don't get him to sign they should have plenty of cap space for free agency but the market is a little thin as far as other free agent forward options and probably will get thinner by the time July 1 hits. My guess is the Canes are going to have to up their offer or they'll probably lose him.

 

[Bender]

I dont know what you mean by unstable mess? are players not getting their paycheques?

Are you talking about Canucks willing to trade disgruntled players?

What difference is that with Colorado being cheap and willing to trade franchise players?

which one is more unstable?



For High End free agents it always comes down to the following

1. Family Happiness in the city they will live in
2. Quality of life
3. Money
4. Cup Chances


3 and 4 can interchange at times.

Franchise player? No offense but this is an outsiders perspective that seemingly a lot of people share that will be proven false probably sooner rather than later.

This is what I wrote a few days after the trade :

This is my personal take on it. To me, it's pretty obvious what happened. For the first 7-8 years, Mikko Rantanen was a very productive player who would put in a solid effort and would get rewarded nightly. No one would ever mistake him for a Selke candidate but he'd at least give it a go and could be 'adequate' defensively and when you add that to his production, it was a winning combination.​

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Then about 2-3 years ago, something happened - Nathan MacKinnon took his game to another level. Nate went apeshit with his game in a good way so much so that gradually, little by little over time, Mikko kinda noticed that he didn't have to do nearly as much work and he was still getting his points. Since Mack was already doing all the heavy lifting and was on such a tear, he could kind of half-ass it at times and kind of get away with it because he was still putting up points. For me, this went on ALL of last season and pretty much almost all of this season as well though I think Mikko's been better this year than last year.​

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So then, when Mikko would get placed on the 2nd line in order to try and balance out the scoring as we've seen at various times this season - it never worked because Rantanen knew that if it didn't work-out almost immediately, Bednar would just put him back with MacKinnon on the top line after a period or two anyways. It was never in his best interest to NOT play with Nate and to be honest, I think there are a TON of players of who have probably done the same.​

​

To be fair here - I don't think Nate cared AT ALL that he had to do the 'heavy lifting' or whatever. I think he just loved playing with Mikko.​

​

Even after ALL of that - C-Mac was still prepared to make Mikko the highest paid winger in the NHL. Imagine that, the highest paid winger in the cushiest spot possible.​

​

In the end, Mikko overplayed his hand. I'm quite certain he figured that he'd be there holding firm on his number in the wee hours of June 30th right before the start of free agency just like his pal Gabe was. I don't think he thought there was a chance in hell they would trade him during the season.​

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How will they ever sell tickets now ??? ​

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A shout-out to C-Mac and all others who saw the same thing I did.​

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Called it : Rumor: - 2024 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Thread: Post Deadline​

In the past, Mikko has been able to elevate his game with MacKinnon out of the lineup but we haven't really seen that player since the Avs won the Cup. So in the end, it had nothing to do with the Avs 'being cheap' and everything to do with not overpaying for a player who's drive had maybe waned over time and they accurately evaluated it was better to move on, especially if you're getting a package with a player like Necas back in return. There's a chance Mikko gets his mojo back and wants to show the world that he's in that top tier and deserves top money - he's certainly talented enough to do it - but there's also a chance that he's got his Cup and now he wants his money and we'll see where that goes.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I know what you're getting at...Market law. I fully agree with you.

But the player or your house is still not "worth" more...
Its the GM and buyer who overpays for it or think it is (for whatever reason)

One can (!!) lead to a lockout (worst case) and buyouts that hurt the team in general, the other to a real estate bubble that bursts. Like in 2007-2008.....

Take John Klingberg. He thought he is worth at least 8 mill per year. Well, guess what fella, you were not. And basically every GM came to that conclusion. Unfortunately, most of the time the same GMs dont act that "smart".

We can all agree that there will be plenty of "GM (or dummys)" out there offering the bank to Rantanen, or Mitch Marner when they hit FA. Hell, i fully expect some moron to even go to 14 or 14+.....

If the pool of money to spend on players goes up, players are going to make more. Essentially what you're saying is to not give the extra $2M to Rantanen, but instead give 2 otherwise $4M players $5M each, or as the owner, just keep it. That last bit is where you run into problems in situations where the employees aren't making millions, or even hundreds of thousands.

 

[tucker3434]

They should’ve had that offer ready when he got off the plane. It’ll be an ugly contract at some point, but they’re already committed now.

 

[Grigowski]

If the pool of money to spend on players goes up, players are going to make more. Essentially what you're saying is to not give the extra $2M to Rantanen, but instead give 2 otherwise $4M players $5M each, or as the owner, just keep it. That last bit is where you run into problems in situations where the employees aren't making millions, or even hundreds of thousands.

That sums it up.

 

[DrunkTurtle]

What playstyle does he fit then?

The Avs style and fit was as good as it gets for Rantanen.

An offense heavy line with not much defensive responsibilities. Ideally that line also has a strong playdriver and Mikko can be the 2nd best guy.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

It's a very good offer but if Rantanen decides to wait for July 1 he'll probably get 13.5/14 anyway. He'll have to give up a year---sign for 7 instead of 8. But some team will offer something in that neighborhood. Perhaps even higher if there are multiple teams ready to do that. There's the probability that other upper tier teams will try to sign him too. Carolina is one of the better regular season teams but they've been pretty much a second round and out team when it comes to the playoffs. Bringing back Rantanen won't be their only issue for next year----they'll probably have to shore up their defense again and they have iffy goaltending.

They gave up a lot for Rantanen. If they don't get him to sign they should have plenty of cap space for free agency but the market is a little thin as far as other free agent forward options and probably will get thinner by the time July 1 hits. My guess is the Canes are going to have to up their offer or they'll probably lose him.

He'd have to be offered 14.25 (give or take) to hit 100 million on a 7 year deal. So unless someone goes up to 15 (which could happen) Carolina likely has the highest total money on the table already. And if the rumor is 100 million plus then they'd be ready to go up to the equivalent of 15 million it seems.

They have Niskinen coming over for next year to shore up the D, still need a RD probably unless they really trust Morrow. Even signing Rantanen they still have something like 15-18 million in cap space to play with.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

If they're prepared, what are they waiting for? Make the offer or trade him. Shit or get off the pot.

 

[spockBokk]

He'd have to be offered 14.25 (give or take) to hit 100 million on a 7 year deal. So unless someone goes up to 15 (which could happen) Carolina likely has the highest total money on the table already. And if the rumor is 100 million plus then they'd be ready to go up to the equivalent of 15 million it seems.

They have Niskinen coming over for next year to shore up the D, still need a RD probably unless they really trust Morrow. Even signing Rantanen they still have something like 15-18 million in cap space to play with.

If they signed Rantanen for $15M, which I think is entirely improbable, they’d still have $20M+ in space.

My assumption is that their looming cap space is the main reason they took the chance on Rantanen. Well, that and the fact they the upcoming UFA class is garbage outside of Rantanen and Marner (who everyone thought were re-signing with their respective clubs anyway) and maybe Ehlers.

The Canes are uniquely positioned to overpay Rantanen, give him the 8th year and still have a crap-ton of cap space. Now, will they overpay him/give him the aav he wants and will Rantanen warm up to spending the next 8yrs in Raleigh?

I get why they did it, just wish they had an extension worked out prior or better yet, I wish they had traded the same package+ likely a little bit more for Pettersson. Another high-end C would have been the better add than an elite winger IMO, also no contract risk.

 

[boltsfan86]

If they signed Rantanen for $15M, which I think is entirely improbable, they’d still have $20M+ in space.

My assumption is that their looming cap space is the main reason they took the chance on Rantanen. Well, that and the fact they the upcoming UFA class is garbage outside of Rantanen and Marner (who everyone thought were re-signing with their respective clubs anyway) and maybe Ehlers.

The Canes are uniquely positioned to overpay Rantanen, give him the 8th year and still have a crap-ton of cap space. Now, will they overpay him/give him the aav he wants and will Rantanen warm up to spending the next 8yrs in Raleigh?

I get why they did it, just wish they had an extension worked out prior or better yet, I wish they had traded the same package+ likely a little bit more for Pettersson. Another high-end C would have been the better add than an elite winger IMO, also no contract risk.

Pettersson would probably have been a better fit for Carolina with his two way play, as well. Rantanen just doesn't seem to fit their mold all that well, although he is certainly talented enough to adjust if he wants to.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

I dont know what you mean by unstable mess?

Let's see...

• Core player was verbally abused by another core player during off ice team gatherings and others didn't intervene
• Core player was scolded for being immature in the media by the front office, by name
• Core players requesting trades (or giving the team no other option) due to a shattered locker room
• Captain of the team is meek, doesn't command respect and clearly has no control over other core players malignant behaviors
• Captain of the team has even said he won't stick around if they trade other major pieces
• Owner is also a well known meddler and the fans actively want him gone.
• Negative goal differential
• Might miss the playoffs

It's a f***ing circus

 

[Schennanigans]

You gotta be stupid to walk away from 12m and not play with Mack anymore.

 

[japhi27returns]

Haven’t seen any talk of upfront money / signing bonus. I know Dundon was pretty opposed to those structures.

Aho got I think 16M signing on 78M, Guentzels deal is almost all signing bonus, very little base salary.

Suspect this is where CAR will have a hard time competing. Not all dollars are the same and 9mm cap hit with 12MM paid on July 1st is much more lucrative then the reverse, an all base deal. Dundon isn’t cheap, per se, but his unwillingness to structure signing bonus heavy deals is going to be an issue when competing for these top guys that have no history with the team.

 

[spockBokk]

Haven’t seen any talk of upfront money / signing bonus. I know Dundon was pretty opposed to those structures.

Aho got I think 16M signing on 78M, Guentzels deal is almost all signing bonus, very little base salary.

Suspect this is where CAR will have a hard time competing. Not all dollars are the same and 9mm cap hit with 12MM paid on July 1st is much more lucrative then the reverse, an all base deal. Dundon isn’t cheap, per se, but his unwillingness to structure signing bonus heavy deals is going to be an issue when competing for these top guys that have no history with the team.

Just for discussion sake, take a look at Slavin’s extension kicking on next year, almost all bonus:

https://puckpedia.com/player/jaccob-slavin

The wrinkle…I believe the last year’s SB is deferred. Not sure how deferred $$$ would fly with Rantanen, but the Canes have changed the way in which their contracts are structured.

 

[Fatass]

At this point, why wouldn’t Rantanen wait for July 1? He could still sign with Carolina at that time, while seeing offers from other clubs. This is a superstar player. He can wait and see.

 

[ExarKun80]

You gotta be stupid to walk away from 12m and not play with Mack anymore.

Not if you get 14-15. Rantanen has won a cup and the only thing left for him is to get a huge payday. People who act like they would ever let 2-3m/year on the table are just bulljiving. That shit works when you make 40-50m/year like NBA stars.

 

[spockBokk]

At this point, why wouldn’t Rantanen wait for July 1? He could still sign with Carolina at that time, while seeing offers from other clubs. This is a superstar player. He can wait and see.

7 vs 8yrs and the potential for making more over 8 vs 7, but who knows

 

[Coffee]

• Core player was verbally abused by another core player during off ice team gatherings and others didn't intervene
• Core player was scolded for being immature in the media by the front office, by name
• Core players requesting trades (or giving the team no other option) due to a shattered locker room
• Captain of the team is meek, doesn't command respect and clearly has no control over other core players malignant behaviors
• Captain of the team has even said he won't stick around if they trade other major pieces
• Owner is also a well known meddler and the fans actively want him gone.
• Negative goal differential
• Might miss the playoffs

It's a f***ing circus

One thing we both have in common though is we both got good skii resorts

 

[traffic cone]

At this point, why wouldn’t Rantanen wait for July 1? He could still sign with Carolina at that time, while seeing offers from other clubs. This is a superstar player. He can wait and see.

I keep being amazed at how many people don’t know (or understand how big of a difference it is) that after July 1st you can only sign 7-year deals. It’s a lot of money for these superstar players who would get +10m and max term.

 

[bobholly39]

At this point, why wouldn’t Rantanen wait for July 1? He could still sign with Carolina at that time, while seeing offers from other clubs. This is a superstar player. He can wait and see.

He's off to a slow start in Carolina. His stock was super high prior to trade. Obviously, it hasn't taken a big hit in just 6 games - but what if he continues to struggle, and him and Carolina do bad in playoffs? That would just reinforce the idea that he's dependent on MacKinnon, and maybe not worth as much as on his own. That could have a big affect on his AAV as a UFA.

Also - obviously - 7 years vs 8 years.

That could be a ton of money he ends up leaving on the table if he has a really bad end of season/playoffs.

If I'm Rantanen - and if I enjoy the Carolina city & team and can see myself living there long-term and playing with this team, I'd be motivated to sign now.

 

[UrbanImpact]

Right? It is totally normal in the NHL- and across pro sports even- for two star players to have such a highly public feud that it sewers team morale, hurts their playoff chances, and leads to one of them being traded for pennies on the CAD. Why wouldn’t a player want to willingly choose that environment over literally any other?

LOL is that what you think happened?

I feel bad for people that fall for every clickbait and media narratives that gaslights them into thinking that fabricated stuff is reality.


-Miller and Pettersson arent best friends, but they have played and flourished alongside eachother for 6 seasons.
-Pettersson came into camp not season ready because he couldnt train in the off-season due to tendinitis. This pissed Miller off.
-Miller at the same time was going through personal hurdles, which caused him to miss a Month. It was also decided by Miller and Management that he needed a fresh start somewhere. Again, nothing to do with Pettersson, but media wont get click bait because they had nothing to report as it didnt come out why Miller needed a personal leave. so the media made it into some sorta of locker room feud.
-Management was open to trading both Miller and Pettersson which confirms that changes are being made but not as if the Canucks had to choose 1 or the other.
The core was stale.
- Miller sold for pennies? lol 1st round pick, 25 yr old Centre ( former 1st round pick), valuable prospect. What exactly were you expecting to get from a 32 yr old player signed until he is 37 yrs old with a no movement clause.


As long as a player is willing to play in Canada and thrive on the pressure of the market then Vancouver will always be a top option for free agents.

They will be big game hunting between now and July 1 and have lots of cap space to be able to do so.

Rantannen will be one of their priorities imo if he hits Free Agency.

 

[Curufinwe]

That is some amazing fan fiction.

 

[Raistlin]

Let's see...

• Core player was verbally abused by another core player during off ice team gatherings and others didn't intervene
• Core player was scolded for being immature in the media by the front office, by name
• Core players requesting trades (or giving the team no other option) due to a shattered locker room
• Captain of the team is meek, doesn't command respect and clearly has no control over other core players malignant behaviors
• Captain of the team has even said he won't stick around if they trade other major pieces
• Owner is also a well known meddler and the fans actively want him gone.
• Negative goal differential
• Might miss the playoffs

It's a f***ing circus

Congrats! you jumped through a lot of theoreticals to reach the fabled COW LEVEL!!!

where did you get point one? Do you believe that EP also slept with a man then?
point 2 did happen.
where did you get point three?? That never happened. Miller never requested a trade, that was refuted many times by both JR and Allvin
where did you get point four??? Meek?? Is Sakic meek? not everyone leads the same way. I'd love to see anyone control JTM btw. Dude had a history of not getting along with anyone, the end result is always to trade him away
where did you get point five???? WHAT??? When???
where did you get point six????? okay... that WAS the case. Aqualini has been a good boy lately and let the hockey guys do their jobs. fans dont want him gone anymore because he hired good experienced people to take care of the franchise now, his deep pockets are appreciated.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

He's off to a slow start in Carolina. His stock was super high prior to trade. Obviously, it hasn't taken a big hit in just 6 games - but what if he continues to struggle, and him and Carolina do bad in playoffs? That would just reinforce the idea that he's dependent on MacKinnon, and maybe not worth as much as on his own. That could have a big affect on his AAV as a UFA.

Also - obviously - 7 years vs 8 years.

That could be a ton of money he ends up leaving on the table if he has a really bad end of season/playoffs.

If I'm Rantanen - and if I enjoy the Carolina city & team and can see myself living there long-term and playing with this team, I'd be motivated to sign now.

We just saw what Sweeney did with Lindholm.

Rantanen will almost certainly have his highest offers in the offseason.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Congrats! you jumped through a lot of theoreticals to reach the fabled COW LEVEL!!!