Friedman: Carolina likely to offer an 8 year, $100+ M contract to Rantanen before the deadline

[MessierII]

The 8th year is the big thing they can offer. We’ll see if he goes for it. Could probably get a bit more if he wanted. All comes down to what he wants.

 

[Kahvi]

Thread title says "likely", however the actual post that's quoted says this is just Friedman speculating and having a theory, not based on any rumours he has heard. Not the first time OP does this.

 

[Grigowski]

$12.5M would be too low in the projected new Cap regime. Rantanen should get $14M+ AAV? It's a new world...

Just because the cap goes up doesnt mean a player worth 12 to max 12.5 Mill should earn 14 mill.....

And yet, so many GMs fall for this "nonsense"....

Thats Draisaitl-Money. Just sayin...

 

[HuGort]

How worrisome is his slow start so far in Carolina? I think he's an amazing player - but paying high after a slow start is risky.

A parallel - Huberdeau earning top $$ in Calgary before actually seeing him perform well there first didn't work out so good...

MacKinnon made Rantanen look better than he is

 

[Hostile Offer]

How worrisome is his slow start so far in Carolina? I think he's an amazing player - but paying high after a slow start is risky.

A parallel - Huberdeau earning top $$ in Calgary before actually seeing him perform well there first didn't work out so good...

This is a good point. While it's hard to believe Rantanen would suddenly drop to a 50 point player on a contending team like the Canes, there is always the risk that it somehow doesn't work out for him in a new environment and the Canes would then be stuck with a boat anchor deal. They have time to wait and see if he clicks with the team so why not do it?

 

[bleedgreen]

Kypreos says a lot of stuff that never comes remotely close to happening and quite often stuff that doesnmt make any sense. Not surprising coming from him tbh.

That said, if I’m Carolina there’s no way I’m giving him 14M a year. It was a massive mistake to trade away Necas for Rantanen IMO. They had a great player who fit in perfectly with their group and had a much more pallatable AAV for next season and very likely for his next contract as well. Now they need to try to make a contract work with a guy that you don’t even know if he wants to play there and that’s heartbroken he got dealt.

Necas was never signing in Carolina after this contract. There’s an interview with a guy who worked for the Canes until very recently talking about the trade and how they worked with Necas and his agent to make a contract that could be traded easily. It’s clear now that the relationship with the Canes was over this summer, but when they didn’t get a deal done they figured out his current contract with the assumption he wasn’t staying.

So trading Necas isn’t the end of the world, they had already tried to use him to get Tkachuk. Trading him for a rental was a massive overpay without an extension in place imo though. If they actually move Rants before the deadline they’re probably only getting standard rental return. Obviously not a Necas, but like I said they were never keeping Necas anyway. They’re probably going to overpay Rants. Who does look like crap so far but it’s way too early to read into that.

 

[Albatros]

They have time to wait and see if he clicks with the team so why not do it?

Besides offering him 8 they don't really have any aces in hand if they take it past the deadline. He'll probably test the market.

 

[TheBigLetowski]

So less than what he is going to get open market?

Stay cheap, Carolina lmao

Open market is 13-14 mil x 7 years = 94.5-98 mil Canes will offer a contract equaling 100 mil. If he doesn't sign, it won't be because of money. The GM literally said they know what his ask was in Colorado. So they're comfortable with what they will offer him.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

How worrisome is his slow start so far in Carolina? I think he's an amazing player - but paying high after a slow start is risky.

A parallel - Huberdeau earning top $$ in Calgary before actually seeing him perform well there first didn't work out so good...

Not overly worrisome just yet. The whole team's been dealing with Flu/Norovirus and he's had some bad puck luck with some posts and open looks just going wide. Plus two assists taken off the board. He's looked good overall just unlucky to an extent.

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

It would be hilarious if he signed with the Avs this summer. He’s not getting $12M+ from them, though.

Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Nichushkin-Crosby-Necas
Lehkonen-Mittlestadt-Drouin

Let’s f***in go

 

[flyfysher]

No doubt Rants is an elite winger and finisher. But at this point, I am relieved that the Avs no longer have to deal with this salary negotiation with Rants.

 

[FlyguyOX]

That's fair value. I'd be surprised if it doesn't get done with the canes.

 

[Chrispy]

Kypreos says a lot of stuff that never comes remotely close to happening and quite often stuff that doesnmt make any sense. Not surprising coming from him tbh.

That said, if I’m Carolina there’s no way I’m giving him 14M a year. It was a massive mistake to trade away Necas for Rantanen IMO. They had a great player who fit in perfectly with their group and had a much more pallatable AAV for next season and very likely for his next contract as well. Now they need to try to make a contract work with a guy that you don’t even know if he wants to play there and that’s heartbroken he got dealt.

I can understand a lot of this criticism, but one thing that absolutely isn't true is that Necas "fit perfectly with their group." The biggest issue with Necas was finding line mates who could deal with his Leroy Jenkins tendencies.

Aside from a few weeks in the bubble season, he never meshed well with Aho. He's not a good match for Staal in terms of speed or playing a good forecheck and cycle game. That left him with Kotkaniemi or occasionally moved to the 4th line (yes, that happened.) This year bringing in Robinson helped him some, but he still didn't seem to mesh with any of the centers.

That was one of the reasons Carolina would use Necas as the likely player to upgrade at forward (Tkachuk, EP last season and this season, now Rantanen.) Even Necas thought things had settled down for this year, but when this opportunity came up and with a huge amount of cap space available for Carolina in the off-season, they decided to take a shot at Rantanen, who would probably be their #1 UFA target had he made it to July 1 anyway. Now they can offer year 8 and give him a chance to adjust to playing with Aho.

I hope they can develop more chemistry during 4 Nations and bring it back to Raleigh for the stretch run.

 

[qc14]

If they're not offering him significantly more than $98M why would Rantanen not just take his chance in UFA and get to choose the exact location he wants???

Feels like Carolina is once again going to screw themselves by trying to be too smart

 

[dirtydanglez]

if your going to offer that play him more than 18m a game.

 

[Iwishihadaspacebar]

If he goes to FA and signs with the Avs for the same as MacKinnon, I'm calling shenanigans and this was all planned.

Picking up Necas, Drury and a pick for not having Rantanen for a few months would persuade me to think we are actually just living in a computer game.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Seems like Mikko is shell shocked a bit from the trade and currently isn't really thrilled to be in Carolina.
Can't see that changing in the next 4 weeks, especially cause the team goes on break for two weeks. Hard to commit 8 years of your life if that's where your head is at. I have no insight really, but just that's the vibe I get from his quotes/play.

 

[Bunch of Jurcos]

So you're telling me that the team that negotiated this trade for months without a peep from an insider is now all of a sudden going to negotiate through the media? Make it make sense.

It's wild that people keep coming up with the cheap narrative. It's precisely because Carolina has been smart with their cap that they can offer 13 million to a franchise level player and not have to gut their team. There are 31 other teams that would love to have him on their team. How many of those teams are consistent playoff teams that could match his ask? Unless you're the Avs, Lightning, Caps, Panthers, or Golden Knights, since we've consistently made the playoffs you have exactly the same amount of hardware as we do. So mind your team and we'll do us over here.

 

[Dr Amazing]

Back to Colorado it is for Rantanen and the Avs trade Girard to Carolina for Rantanen.

 

[TLEH]

So you're telling me that the team that negotiated this trade for months without a peep from an insider is now all of a sudden going to negotiate through the media? Make it make sense.

It's wild that people keep coming up with the cheap narrative. It's precisely because Carolina has been smart with their cap that they can offer 13 million to a franchise level player and not have to gut their team. There are 31 other teams that would love to have him on their team. How many of those teams are consistent playoff teams that could match his ask? Unless you're the Avs, Lightning, Caps, Panthers, or Golden Knights, since we've consistently made the playoffs you have exactly the same amount of hardware as we do. So mind your team and we'll do us over here.

I will say its a lot easier to keep guys and "be smart" with the cap when you haven't won anything. Once guys win the Cup its like.. okay.. I did it, now I am really owed my money. Before that, you can get guys to take discounts a bit easier.

Not that Carolina hasn't done a solid job with their salary structure, they have, avoiding really bad deals.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

I don't understand these comparisons.

I would expect Rantanen to sign another contract when this deal ends in 7 years. And the cap will probably be $150m by then. Why is that money not considered?

It absolutely is considered, but so is the fact that money now via signing bonus is worth a lot more than money in 8 years, also having it guaranteed now where him still being in the league/effective and able to get a contract in 8 years is far from a guarantee. Everybody has different opinions on this topic, I don't know what Rantanen's is.

Personally, if I were Rantanen, I'd go the Auston Matthews type route and keep betting on myself with the cap rising and take shorter term deals. But very few players do that so I think Rantanen probably would want the 8 years, even if the average per year is lower.

 

[qc14]

So you're telling me that the team that negotiated this trade for months without a peep from an insider is now all of a sudden going to negotiate through the media? Make it make sense.

It's wild that people keep coming up with the cheap narrative. It's precisely because Carolina has been smart with their cap that they can offer 13 million to a franchise level player and not have to gut their team. There are 31 other teams that would love to have him on their team. How many of those teams are consistent playoff teams that could match his ask? Unless you're the Avs, Lightning, Caps, Panthers, or Golden Knights, since we've consistently made the playoffs you have exactly the same amount of hardware as we do. So mind your team and we'll do us over here.

I think there certainly were peeps from insiders. Friedman all year kept going back to Rantanen and Colorado and how "deadlines spur action" like a week before the deal he brought it up again somewhat out of the blue.

One part of the "cheap" narrative is Dundon routinely not investing in things around the margins -- the hockey ops staff being the biggest culprit -- and has nickle-and-dimed the number one reason for their success on multiple contract negotiations. They're also a team that has consistently been let down in the playoffs by their lack of truly game-breaking talent and despite that have let two game-breakers walk in UFA on deals that Carolina could've easily afforded.

All the reporting is that Guentzel felt somewhat disrespected and unsettled by the negotiations with Carolina and that by dicking around and taking time to get to the number he wanted they left room for him to decide on another location. It seems like a bad idea to potentially be doing that again

 

[I am Canadian]

I think 8x 13.75M would get it done.

110M over 8 years

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I don't understand these comparisons.

I would expect Rantanen to sign another contract when this deal ends in 7 years. And the cap will probably be $150m by then. Why is that money not considered?

It is, but the only year that isn't would be his final year, whenever that is. He can probably sign a 2 year deal after 8 years too.

Just because the cap goes up doesnt mean a player worth 12 to max 12.5 Mill should earn 14 mill.....

And yet, so many GMs fall for this "nonsense"....

Thats Draisaitl-Money. Just sayin...

"Just because the housing market goes up doesn't mean that you should expect to get more for your house".

 

[Silky mitts]

Carolina can pay Rantanen and Kotkaniemi a combined $18M AAV scoring 1 ppg between them until the end of time and Moneypuck will still have them coming out of the East