Friedman: Carolina likely to offer an 8 year, $100+ M contract to Rantanen before the deadline

[the halleJOKEL]

Why are fans saying they have tons of cap space if they are 'at the cap'?

multiple big contracts come off the books this offseason with core players already locked up alongside the projected salary cap increase

 

[CupsOverCash]

He will go to tampa like JG did.

 

[robbieberns]

I wouldn't have traded for Rantanen with a player like Necas unless there was an extension in place. Isles did that with Vanek and got burned.

Speaking of handicaps, the owner has already let players around the league know that if you want a payday you are going to get traded, based on his actions.


Why are fans saying they have tons of cap space if they are 'at the cap'?

Necas was never re-signing in Carolina, he was going to UFA summer ‘26 if he was still a Cane. They used him to land a potentially bigger piece instead of letting him walk.

We’ve let non core members walk, but have paid the guys who need to get paid. Absolutely not a blanket “if you want to get paid you’re out of here” like you’re putting out there. Guentzel got an offer that wasn’t far off of Tampa’s, Rantanen will get a big offer. Just really not the narrative you’re pushing.

Canes spent to the cap every year. Not much cap left for any moves in season, we’re saying that there’s tons of room to work with in the summer with the deals coming off the books. At the beginning of every season there’s not a penny left on the table.

 

[spockBokk]

I wouldn't have traded for Rantanen with a player like Necas unless there was an extension in place.

Why are fans saying they have tons of cap space if they are 'at the cap'?

Agree, I wish they would have traded Necas + for Pettersson to avoid the contract drama. It is what it is

They'll have close to $40M in cap space next year with their core locked up and 2-3 prospects ready to fill spots on ELCs. They have the space to give Rantanen $13-14M x 8 while still having ~$25M to bring in a goalie, another top 6 forward and 1-2 bottom 6 guys/7D. They're uniquely positioned to pay market rate for Rantanen, give him the 8th yr and still be able to bring in another high profile player or 2.

All that said, I have no clue if Rantanen sticks around, I hope he does and am cautiously optimistic he does.

 

[trellaine201]

Wouldn't a team know they will sign him before trading for him. They must. And has this ever happened where a high profile player was traded and ended back on his former team? Yikes for that scenario if your Carolina. Surely they knew they could and would sign him.

 

[Chan790]

Wouldn't a team know they will sign him before trading for him. They must. And has this ever happened where a high profile player was traded and ended back on his former team? Yikes for that scenario if your Carolina. Surely they knew they could and would sign him.

Carolina has made trades for high-profile players they desired to be long-term Canes two years in a row without an extension...or even discussions/negotiations for that matter, before acquisition. They seem very comfortable with the risk of it and possibly prefer it if it reduces the trade cost.

I doubt there is any possibility of Rantanen returning to the Avs as a UFA, even if they make him the best offer. The way he was traded and his reaction to it makes me think that was a bridge burned by Colorado.

 

[bleedgreen]

I wouldn't have traded for Rantanen with a player like Necas unless there was an extension in place. Isles did that with Vanek and got burned.

Speaking of handicaps, the owner has already let players around the league know that if you want a payday you are going to get traded, based on his actions.


Why are fans saying they have tons of cap space if they are 'at the cap'?

Tons of cap space for next year when their ufa’s drop off….thus room to sign Rants. They have room to make big moves for next year. You see Rants next contract doesn’t start until then.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

The difference is that the Avs have the two Mack/Maks who at their best can be said to be the best 2 players in the game, the Canes do not.

The cap is going up, their 11 is now easily in the 12s based on capflation alone. Looking at playoff numbers, he is CLEARLY better than both of them.

Considering that basically every team in the league would give him 12, 12 is his absolute floor. If he wants money Detroit/Montreal/Chicago/Anaheim/Pitt would likely give him nearing 14 as they don't have much to lose, so again the question is if Mikko is the guy you go to war with over a mill and a bit? Even if he took his absolute floor, what exactly is an extra 1-2 mill going to get you? Not much.

You win with your best players performing in the playoffs and Mikko has done that in absolute spades and honestly from a Leafs perspective, I can tell you first hand talented players have absolutely zero guarantee they will perform (considering that none of our big 5 have ever outperformed Mikko in the playoffs and they're in the 11-14 range).

Don't disagree with a lot of this and you are right that at a certain point, $1m is silly to quibble over but thats on Rantanens side as well. As a team your sales pitch can't always be 'we're going to give you the most money a la Juan Soto' because that is a slippery slope in hockey where there are hard caps and internal caps in place.

If $12 is the floor based on cap rising then $14 is too high based on what Drai signed to and his contract kicks in same time. If Carolina is potentially offering $12.5 then it's really not all that far away from what he should come in at which is what? $13m or slightly more?

Also, Pasta and Nylander have been good playoff performers as well so maybe while not quite on the same level as Rants it's not like they turn into pumpkins.

 

[57special]

Doesn't Rantanen have to start putting up numbers that resemble the ones he got in Colorado before he gets 12M+? I mean, Mackinnon is better than Aho, but the latter is still damn good. IMO, you've got be a player who can drive a line all by yourself if you are deserving of that kind of money, not be a guy who needs to have a top 3 C on your line.

 

[NVious]

Don't disagree with a lot of this and you are right that at a certain point, $1m is silly to quibble over but thats on Rantanens side as well. As a team your sales pitch can't always be 'we're going to give you the most money a la Juan Soto' because that is a slippery slope in hockey where there are hard caps and internal caps in place.

If $12 is the floor based on cap rising then $14 is too high based on what Drai signed to and his contract kicks in same time. If Carolina is potentially offering $12.5 then it's really not all that far away from what he should come in at which is what? $13m or slightly more?

Also, Pasta and Nylander have been good playoff performers as well so maybe while not quite on the same level as Rants it's not like they turn into pumpkins.

Within the context of the Canes who never "go for it" I think it's different. At some point you have to actually go for it and hope for the best. What was the point of trading Necas who is cost controlled/an awesome player if you don't have total confidence in Rants? You get it done and hope for the best.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Doesn't Rantanen have to start putting up numbers that resemble the ones he got in Colorado before he gets 12M+? I mean, Mackinnon is better than Aho, but the latter is still damn good. IMO, you've got be a player who can drive a line all by yourself if you are deserving of that kind of money, not be a guy who needs to have a top 3 C on your line.

No he doesnt because any team with cap would be willing to get him for 12m in UFA.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

They’ve signed the talent worth committing to, let the replaceable guys walk, and tried to sign a guy like Guentzel that was deemed worth it. They traded for and are going to do everything they can to sign Rantanen.

Hamilton, Pesce, Skjei, Teravainen, Noesen, Trocheck, these are all guys who have been proven to be replaceable. Signing four core pieces to long term deals and making moves to bring in and attempt to sign top of the line talent to fill that group out doesn’t equate to a plan in your eyes? To be it’s a front office that refuses to bog themselves down by signing a guy who isn’t much of a needle mover to an snchor of a deal while trusting your pro scouting department to identify value deals to replace aging guys who reach UFA.

If they were to have the non cheap route, they sign all their guys to deals that are more money for worse production than their previous deals, particularly in the latter half of all those deals. Completely handicaps them moving forward and makes deals for the likes of Rantanen impossible, let alone any concept of re-signing Rantanen and having room to make additional high end moves.

Any good team will have to have some roster turn over. I wouldnt say carolina has only made good decisions here though. Trochek is way better than KK. Is that defence any better or just not way worse?

 

[Muffin]

Doesn't Rantanen have to start putting up numbers that resemble the ones he got in Colorado before he gets 12M+? I mean, Mackinnon is better than Aho, but the latter is still damn good. IMO, you've got be a player who can drive a line all by yourself if you are deserving of that kind of money, not be a guy who needs to have a top 3 C on your line.

The Avs have been trying to get him to drive his own line on the second line all season and it never worked.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Necas was never re-signing in Carolina, he was going to UFA summer ‘26 if he was still a Cane. They used him to land a potentially bigger piece instead of letting him walk.

We’ve let non core members walk, but have paid the guys who need to get paid. Absolutely not a blanket “if you want to get paid you’re out of here” like you’re putting out there. Guentzel got an offer that wasn’t far off of Tampa’s, Rantanen will get a big offer. Just really not the narrative you’re pushing.

Canes spent to the cap every year. Not much cap left for any moves in season, we’re saying that there’s tons of room to work with in the summer with the deals coming off the books. At the beginning of every season there’s not a penny left on the table.

Imo they made a mistake letting Guentzel walk, he fit in with your team really well. Just perfect chemistry with Aho and Jarvis immediately. Even better than he has with Tampa, and he's done really well in Tampa. 8x8 was such a reasonable ask too, took way too long to meet it.