Friedman: Carolina is interested in JT Miller

[GAGLine]

If that rule of thumb is true then why do posters here think Miller is negative value when he got his contract last year during which he put up 99 points. His contract should have been 10 mil instead of 8 mil lol

I imagine it's the term that concerns most people. He turns 30 next month and that 7 year contract doesn't start until next season. Besides that, I don't think anyone viewed him as a 99 point player. He had a really good year last year, but it was highly doubtful he would be able to repeat it. And thus far, he hasn't. At that AAV, you hope he can be around 1 PPG, but can he do it for 7 more years? That's the real question.

 

[jackjohnson]

I imagine it's the term that concerns most people. He turns 30 next month and that 7 year contract doesn't start until next season. Besides that, I don't think anyone viewed him as a 99 point player. He had a really good year last year, but it was highly doubtful he would be able to repeat it. And thus far, he hasn't. At that AAV, you hope he can be around 1 PPG, but can he do it for 7 more years? That's the real question.

He does get 70 plus points consistently and is PPG again this season so his contract matches his performance. Besides, all players sign 8 year contracts so it's no different than Kadri, Horvat, Huberdeau etc.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

He does get 70 plus points consistently and is PPG again this season so his contract matches his performance. Besides, all players sign 8 year contracts so it's no different than Kadri, Horvat, Huberdeau etc.

No, not all players sign 8 year contracts. 4 years into his contract he's going to be 34 and then have 4 more years. If Rutherford didn't re-sign him at all and he was a UFA, he'd be going for a 1st+ this deadline.

For every Joe Pavelski, there's 5 Loui Erikssons. Most forwards peak between 25-30. Honestly, more forwards actually peak between 24-28.

 

[Siludin]

People forget how much the cap has been suppressed due to COVID and the escrow, but if you take a look at Cap Friendly's projections for how the cap will go up in the next few seasons, you will all see how silly it is to worry about a contract of this size when the cap will be 100m in like 5 years.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

That KK contract is ridiculous. Miller’s contract is actually a relatively good deal. For now.

Which KK is this? Kaprizov?

 

[jackjohnson]

No, not all players sign 8 year contracts. 4 years into his contract he's going to be 34 and then have 4 more years. If Rutherford didn't re-sign him at all and he was a UFA, he'd be going for a 1st+ this deadline.

For every Joe Pavelski, there's 5 Loui Erikssons. Most forwards peak between 25-30. Honestly, more forwards actually peak between 24-28.

Forwards peak between 24 to 28? Then we should trade Kuzmenko and Pettersson now lol. Not sure what you are talking about when Sedins peaked at 30

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Forwards peak between 24 to 28? Then we should trade Kuzmenko and Pettersson now lol. Not sure what you are talking about when Sedins peaked at 30

Yeah. Most forwards do. There are lots of examples of course of forwards who age gracefully. But they are generally the exception and not the rule.

Derek Stepan is 32 years old. He used to score 50 points with regularity. Now, it's a good season if he hits 20. This is more prototypical for NHL players.

I'm not saying JT Miller won't be good in his 30s, but it's very, very likely he will get worse, probably much worse, as the contract ages.

 

[jackjohnson]

Miller is a good buy low candidate but I don’t think the Canucks will sell him for less than the very public offer of 1st, Chytil, Lundqvist at last year’s deadline. At least not within a year of making that decision.

Ironically the Miller threads last year were filled with we don’t want him unless he’s signed. Now he’s signed and his contract makes him negative value.

Typical HFboard...damned if you do and damned if you don't. Basically whatever you do it becomes negative value on HFbaord. Not sign him..."but he is soon to be UFA, Rental worth not much"....sign him: " but his term is long and he will be bad soon"...sign him to short term high AAV: " but he takes too much cap space..."

Yeah. Most forwards do. There are lots of examples of course of forwards who age gracefully. But they are generally the exception and not the rule.

Derek Stepan is 32 years old. He used to score 50 points with regularity. Now, it's a good season if he hits 20. This is more prototypical for NHL players.

I'm not saying JT Miller won't be good in his 30s, but it's very, very likely he will get worse, probably much worse, as the contract ages.

So that Horvat contract is really really bad as he will decline at age of 28 and he is 27 now

 

[GAGLine]

He does get 70 plus points consistently and is PPG again this season so his contract matches his performance. Besides, all players sign 8 year contracts so it's no different than Kadri, Horvat, Huberdeau etc.

All of those players signed after putting up significantly higher totals than their career bests. I wouldn't want any of those contracts. There are very few players I would trust on big contracts into their mid-to-late 30s, and none of those players are on that list.

 

[EpochLink]

he sure does act a lot different. No more negative body language, he back checks much harder and he's been on the PK. Maybe he's being showcased but who knows. He's been acting very different. He also made Beaulivier go on the ice when the Islanders gave him a tribute.

JT Miller probably wanted Horvat off this team, maybe his 'leadership' was meh at best.

 

[Umingmak]

Miller is the antithesis of everything that Carolina has tried to build. I can’t see this happening.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Typical HFboard...damned if you do and damned if you don't. Basically whatever you do it becomes negative value on HFbaord. Not sign him..."but he is soon to be UFA, Rental worth not much"....sign him: " but his term is long and he will be bad soon"...sign him to short term high AAV: " but he takes too much cap space..."


So that Horvat contract is really really bad as he will decline at age of 28 and he is 27 now

Miller is signed 30-37 (turns 38 his last season).
Horvat is signed 28-36.

They both are very risky deals. Horvat's skews slightly younger, but his year is also a greater deviation from his career norm. JT Miller on the other hand has less points this year and a significantly worse +/-. No one knows when players will decline but generally the Canes tend to avoid long deals going into the mid and late 30s. Aho will probably be the one we make an exception for, and his deal will go 27 - 34. Fortunately/unfortunately he hits UFA early.

 

[jackjohnson]

Miller is signed 30-37 (turns 38 his last season).
Horvat is signed 28-36.

They both are very risky deals. Horvat's skews slightly younger, but his year is also a greater deviation from his career norm. JT Miller on the other hand has less points this year and a significantly worse +/-. No one knows when players will decline but generally the Canes tend to avoid long deals going into the mid and late 30s. Aho will probably be the one we make an exception for, and his deal will go 27 - 34. Fortunately/unfortunately he hits UFA early.

And name a player who is 28 and signs a 4 year deal? They all want the long term deal, they don't want to go through 3 contracts when they are risks later in their career. Any NHL player you sign after 28 will want one long term last deal contract unless you keep trading them when they hit 28 or 29 and that would be dumb because its tough to replace star players. All last contract terms are usually 7 to 8 years, not sure why it's hard for you to understand. NHL players also look for their best self interest, it's business so forget about players trying to sign short low cap contracts for the good of the team.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

And name a player who is 28 and signs a 4 year deal? They all want the long term deal, they don't want to go through 3 contracts when they are risks later in their career. Any NHL player you sign after 28 will want one long term last deal contract unless you keep trading them when they hit 28 or 29 and that would be dumb because its tough to replace star players. All last contract terms are usually 7 to 8 years, not sure why it's hard for you to understand. NHL players also look for their best self interest, it's business so forget about players trying to sign short low cap contracts for the good of the team.

That's all rather obvious and it goes without saying. I agree.

My point is the Canes are just not a team who tends to give out these deals, hence why the let Trocheck and Hamilton walk and why they traded Skinner and Faulk.

I started my posting to explain why the Canes are one of the least likely teams to trade for JT Miller for this reason.

 

[TBF1972]

Friedman says everyone is interested in everyone

if you believe him the nhl is more frivolous than hippie commune in the seventies.

 

[Szechwan]

I find it very ironic that so many Vancouver fans reject Kotkaniemi out of hand. They did the same thing with Chytil last year and now regret it.

Kotkaniemi is still only 22 years old. 20 points in 51 games isn't bad. He doesn't need to improve that much to make that contract worth it. The rule of thumb is 1 mil for every 10 points, so he would need to improve to 30 in 51 to be on a 48 point pace. Anything more than that is gravy.

He's 9th among all forwards on Carolina in EV ice time per game and 8th in PP time per game. With more time and opportunities, he may flourish.

If Vancouver is going to rebuild, then why not take a chance on him? You can have him for up to 3 years before you need to make a decision on him, as he can still be bought out at 1/3rd in 2026 (he doesn't turn 26 until July 6th, 2026). These would be his buyout numbers in 2026:

View attachment 648493

It's a lot of years, but not a lot of cap space. And if he works out, you've got a good player at a good number for a long time.

bro even NYR fans were rejecting Chytil last year until his playoff run.

 

[North Cole]

I don't see it but if any team could make it work, it's probably them. You need a strong locker room to keep this guy in check, but most importantly, winning is the #1 preventative medicine for his mental breakdowns.

If you can get happy/focused Miller, he's a great asset. The key is limiting how often petulant/angry Miller gets out on the ice. Based on the look on Rod's face sometimes, I get the sense that Miller would not win a shouting match.

 

[ginner classic]

I don't think Miller is moving because - owner is short-sighted. But if he did, the following are the most likely to acquire him.

Pittsburgh
Columbus - before NMC
VGK - before NTC
Carolina - for JK
Winmipeg - before NMC