GDT: Carolina @ Edmonton

[tarheelhockey]

http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/Q9BG9MM2X?:display_count=yes

^ That's the player usage chart for the Hurricanes' forwards this season.

For those who have never read one before, here is what you need to know:

- The farther right a player is, the more often he starts his shifts in the offensive zone.
- The farther down a player is, the easier his competition.
- The bigger a player's bubble is, the more TOI he gets.
- A bluer bubble means a positive CORSI; a redder bubble means negative.


See that big, blue bubble in the upper left quadrant? That's Jordan Staal. Taking lots of TOI on defensive shifts against tougher competition than anyone else, and still managing to create more offense relative to his opponents than anyone else other than Semin.

This is one of those advanced-stats things that actually does mean something. Someone who has a big blue bubble in the upper left quadrant of this chart is doing an outstanding job, and it's pretty cut and dry.

 

[bluedevil58*]

http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/Q9BG9MM2X?:display_count=yes

^ That's the player usage chart for the Hurricanes' forwards this season.

For those who have never read one before, here is what you need to know:

- The farther right a player is, the more often he starts his shifts in the offensive zone.
- The farther down a player is, the easier his competition.
- The bigger a player's bubble is, the more TOI he gets.
- A bluer bubble means a positive CORSI; a redder bubble means negative.


See that big, blue bubble in the upper left quadrant? That's Jordan Staal. Taking lots of TOI on defensive shifts against tougher competition than anyone else, and still managing to create more offense relative to his opponents than anyone else other than Semin.

This is one of those advanced-stats things that actually does mean something. Someone who has a big blue bubble in the upper left quadrant of this chart is doing an outstanding job, and it's pretty cut and dry.

 

[RodTheBawd]

I've resisted advanced stats in hockey for so long, but that's pretty sick. Anywhere to get a quick rundown on some of the other stats (similar to your explanation for that chart)? I really like when stats back up my ********, too

 

[What the Faulk]

Proof that Elias Lindholm is overmatched right now.

I've resisted advanced stats in hockey for so long, but that's pretty sick. Anywhere to get a quick rundown on some of the other stats (similar to your explanation for that chart)?

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/glossary.php

But really, what you want to pay attention to is Corsi (shot attempts), Fenwick (unblocked shot attempts), zone start percentage, quality of competition (measured by Corsi), and PDO to an extent. I've found limited value in others, and that site uses a lot of it's own metrics.

Tarheelhockey's chart really just takes all of those above and gives you a nice visualization of who sucks and who doesn't.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Ah jesus, time to be completely unproductive at work, thanks guys.

 

[djboos22]

Man, I hope this is a trolljob, otherwise we are watching completely different games. He is a ****ing monster on the puck. I can think of maybe 3 or 4 guys in the game today that could challenge him on the boards. It'd be nice if his brother borrowed some of that effort.

I'm a big Ward supporter, and obviously he's been fighting it these last couple of games, but what was he doing on that OT goal? Of course Sekera should have cleared it, and at first glance it didn't look that bad on Ward, but after the replays I was confused. It's like his two thoughts were A) Sekera is clearing it, I'm fine or B) Oh **** it, nets open, nothing I can do. I could very well be wrong, but it looked like if he made the effort, he could have at least been close, as opposed to flailing his arms hoping for another single to right.

I noticed that too, he just kinda...stopped.

 

[Ole Gil]

One thing with Lindholm's 'stats' is that he's in a constant state of development. Starting the season out of shape, 1st week in the NHL, playing a lot on the 4th line compared to what he's doing now on Jordan's line.

My guess is that there might be two different stories.

Re Ward's last non-save, I think his first instinct was that he didn't have time to do anything more than maybe get his arm over. Sekera made a good play to buy a little time, but by then, the 'desperation' arm save had already been put in motion, rather than sliding across with the pads. If he'd known he'd have time, I imagine he'd have played it differently.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I noticed that too, he just kinda...stopped.

It's the same thing we've seen during Ward's other slumps in the past couple of years -- he's lunging to make a highlight save because he expecting a defensive breakdown.

Remember the pad stacks last year? Same thing. He was making poor save selections because he was used to players tapping pucks in on the backside post.

This year it's the paddle. He's made a couple of great ones lately (Devils, Caps) and he was going for another on that play, just turning and putting his stick out there in desperation. So when Sekera actually got a stick in the way, Ward was left balancing on one knee, arm out, not able to do much other than just lunge awkwardly in a second effort. If he had trusted Sekera to delay the shot, he would have come across with his usual pads-down slide and made a nice little save of it.

It may also have something to do with his injuries. He's certainly not moving side-to-side like he used to, and it may be that late in an OT game he was feeling the effects of fatigue on his joints or back.

 

[Ole Gil]

I think Sekera briefly making the play before eventually losing the battle was one of the least likely outcomes. If Cam were getting himself on balance to push back as the guy was tapping it into the net, we'd be having the same "what's wrong with Cam" discussion.

 

[RodTheBawd]

I think Sekera briefly making the play before eventually losing the battle was one of the least likely outcomes. If Cam were getting himself on balance to push back as the guy was tapping it into the net, we'd be having the same "what's wrong with Cam" discussion.

I'd be ok with it if he made the effort and was late getting across, I'd chalk it up to Sekera being a little more human as of late. I don't think anyone could have gotten across in time if Eberle got the first chance off clean. My problem was he looked like he gave up on it, which is all mental.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'd be ok with it if he made the effort and was late getting across, I'd chalk it up to Sekera being a little more human as of late. I don't think anyone could have gotten across in time if Eberle got the first chance off clean. My problem was he looked like he gave up on it, which is all mental.

I don't think it looked like he gave up on it, he just got stuck in this position:

All his weight is on his right knee, and there's no physical way to create traction in that position. He had to bring his left leg all the way over to push off, and by that time Eberle was already shooting.

And really, it's not even entirely on the defense. It's just really difficult to defend a 4-on-3 in the NHL, where the players are threading passes and only take a split second to settle the puck. Once Gagner's pass got through the seam and caught Sekera in that 2-on-1, it was basically a matter of whether Eberle was going to handle the pass across. Sekera did a decent job of disrupting him for a second, but it's just about hopeless to think an NHL player is going to fan on an empty net twice. And as stated above, if Ward makes the "correct" save selection and Eberle gets wood on the first shot, we're all complaining about Ward anyway. Everyone was in desperation mode and it just wasn't going to work out well unless Eberle flubbed it.

 

[djboos22]

It's the same thing we've seen during Ward's other slumps in the past couple of years -- he's lunging to make a highlight save because he expecting a defensive breakdown.

Remember the pad stacks last year? Same thing. He was making poor save selections because he was used to players tapping pucks in on the backside post.

This year it's the paddle. He's made a couple of great ones lately (Devils, Caps) and he was going for another on that play, just turning and putting his stick out there in desperation. So when Sekera actually got a stick in the way, Ward was left balancing on one knee, arm out, not able to do much other than just lunge awkwardly in a second effort. If he had trusted Sekera to delay the shot, he would have come across with his usual pads-down slide and made a nice little save of it.

It may also have something to do with his injuries. He's certainly not moving side-to-side like he used to, and it may be that late in an OT game he was feeling the effects of fatigue on his joints or back.

Thats a great point. Anytime he makes one of his highlight saves he is usually diving with his glove or stick. If he was able to just slide over last night he would have been in better position no matter if the D got the puck out or not, but instead he stayed on his knees and extended his stick.

Your right on about the side to side.

 

[djboos22]

I don't think it looked like he gave up on it, he just got stuck in this position:

All his weight is on his right knee, and there's no physical way to create traction in that position. He had to bring his left leg all the way over to push off, and by that time Eberle was already shooting.

And really, it's not even entirely on the defense. It's just really difficult to defend a 4-on-3 in the NHL, where the players are threading passes and only take a split second to settle the puck. Once Gagner's pass got through the seam and caught Sekera in that 2-on-1, it was basically a matter of whether Eberle was going to handle the pass across. Sekera did a decent job of disrupting him for a second, but it's just about hopeless to think an NHL player is going to fan on an empty net twice. And as stated above, if Ward makes the "correct" save selection and Eberle gets wood on the first shot, we're all complaining about Ward anyway. Everyone was in desperation mode and it just wasn't going to work out well unless Eberle flubbed it.

I know its not easy by any means to reposition yourself when your body is in that position, but I thought after Eberle missed the first time, Ward had a chance to get back to his feet. However, it goes along with your point earlier.

For the record. I am still a Ward guy...he needs some playoff action to get back.

 

[bleedgreen]

I always found Cam to be at his best when he wasn't making highlight saves. That's partially due to defensive help, of course but even when we won the cup we weren't a spectacular defensive team. That team always found a way to score another goal to make up for errors. That team had a third line that would pop up late in games to chip in.

That's why I don't really relate Cam's aggressiveness to how good the d is. I just think when he's making more desperation saves it's because he isn't where he wanted to be positionally. When he's at his best he's a pretty boring goalie. Economical and calm. Already in the right position. Every now and then an amazing save. When he's at his best perfect shots still beat him regularly because he's a positional goalie as compared to an athletic one. That's why semin, Ovie and Kovy always scored highlight reel goals on him. They shot perfect and he isn't one to stop those. He played sound positionally and took away most things aside from those perfect shots.

That's why I get concerned when I see him making lots of amazing saves and moving around more than we're used to. I don't he has his positioning down, I think the loss of mobility he undoubtedly is going through because of injuries and age (more overuse than the actual number itself) is preventing him from getting to where he wants to be and that makes him a goalie in transition. If he stays healthy and gets the time he needs maybe he gets the flexibility back and then gets his positioning back where he wants to like he has in the past. Or maybe he adapts to his new limitations and finds a way to still be effective. Or maybe he slowly goes down the toilet and this is the beginning of the end.

Regardless he's one of if not the best long term goalie we've ever had and I'm including the whalers. He's given us a legit number one guy for a long time and he has overall been worth the price. Do I think we could save the money, go cheaper and maybe get at least the same results? Probably. Do I think his contract as well as estaals led to the erosion of talent that left us in the mini rebuild that we've had to go through the last couple of years? Absolutely and I said it at the time of both those contracts. We were gonna cut good players out to keep these two at these prices. Do I think jr made the right choice regardless? Yes. We needed to keep them.

Cutting away Ward is stupid without a legit plan b already in place and I don't think jr is even considering it at this point. Jr was a goalie and he clearly has loved ward. It's not easy to find a replacement, and we don't have one here. Khudo gave us a couple weeks then took himself out on a comical play and hasn't been able to come back from seems to be a sprained ankle unless someone knows better. Even forslund has made comments about how it's a surprise he isn't back yet. Not saying he should be criticized, just saying I'm not seeing wards replacement there yet.

Ward is our horse just like estaal is. Think we just have to accept it.

 

[Lazyking]

Note, even with Ward's struggles, injury to Semin, we are third in the Metro. A playoff spot.

Ward rounds into form, Semin comes back and we're still in it, things could be really good in late April.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Re. Khudobin...it was a partially torn ligament, wasn't it? Didn't we get that info a while back?

 

[DarthP0ker]

Ward for Dubnyk. Do it

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

I miss sweet TEA

 

[Navin R Slavin]

http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/Q9BG9MM2X?:display_count=yes

^ That's the player usage chart for the Hurricanes' forwards this season.

For those who have never read one before, here is what you need to know:

- The farther right a player is, the more often he starts his shifts in the offensive zone.
- The farther down a player is, the easier his competition.
- The bigger a player's bubble is, the more TOI he gets.
- A bluer bubble means a positive CORSI; a redder bubble means negative.


See that big, blue bubble in the upper left quadrant? That's Jordan Staal. Taking lots of TOI on defensive shifts against tougher competition than anyone else, and still managing to create more offense relative to his opponents than anyone else other than Semin.

This is one of those advanced-stats things that actually does mean something. Someone who has a big blue bubble in the upper left quadrant of this chart is doing an outstanding job, and it's pretty cut and dry.

Great, great stuff here.

Also worth looking at the D only version of this chart (you can switch positions at the top):

* Hainsey has a way better Corsi than I thought, best on the D corps;
* Murphy and Sekera are slightly negative corsi and essentially identical;
* Bellemore is ok, but against tougher competition than I thought;
* Gleason is awful against equal competition;
* Harrison is bad against poor competition;
* Murphy is, uh, a forward.

--hank

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Murphy also gets hella sheltered. 65% offensive zone start?

 

[CaniacSZN]

http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/Q9BG9MM2X?:display_count=yes

^ That's the player usage chart for the Hurricanes' forwards this season.

For those who have never read one before, here is what you need to know:

- The farther right a player is, the more often he starts his shifts in the offensive zone.
- The farther down a player is, the easier his competition.
- The bigger a player's bubble is, the more TOI he gets.
- A bluer bubble means a positive CORSI; a redder bubble means negative.


See that big, blue bubble in the upper left quadrant? That's Jordan Staal. Taking lots of TOI on defensive shifts against tougher competition than anyone else, and still managing to create more offense relative to his opponents than anyone else other than Semin.

This is one of those advanced-stats things that actually does mean something. Someone who has a big blue bubble in the upper left quadrant of this chart is doing an outstanding job, and it's pretty cut and dry.

Sorry prolly a dumb question but still new to advanced stats. The bolded part it seems like Jordan's and others are higher then Semin unless I'm looking at the wrong thing "Quality of Competition (relative corsi)" is the one I'm looking at. Reading it wrong or looking at the wrong stat?

 

[tarheelhockey]

Sorry prolly a dumb question but still new to advanced stats. The bolded part it seems like Jordan's and others are higher then Semin unless I'm looking at the wrong thing "Quality of Competition (relative corsi)" is the one I'm looking at. Reading it wrong or looking at the wrong stat?

QualComp is the y-axis (vertical) and tracks the quality of each player's competition -- the relative Corsi of the players who were on the ice against them.

You're right that about half the team has had more difficult competition than Semin. Ruutu actually has a slight edge over Jordan in this measure, but as you can see from the other numbers he has been facing those opponents in more offensively-favorable situations and his results have been worse.

The bolded comment was to say that Jordan's relative Corsi (the color of his bubble) is better than anyone's but Semin's, even in spite of constantly being used in defensive roles. Semin's results are a little better (darker blue) but he is in much more favorable situations on a regular basis.

On a typical shift, Jordan will start in the defensive zone against the other team's best player, and by the end of his shift the Canes will have outshot the other team. That is a sign of truly outstanding two-way play, even if it's awkward to watch at times.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Murphy also gets hella sheltered. 65% offensive zone start?

That really shouldn't come as a surprise though. The only way he has a chance of being effective in the NHL at this point in his career, is to limit the liability defensively while trying to take advantage of his offensive skilled.

 

[DougieSmash]

I couldn't care less for Corsi and etc... but Jordan Staal is incredible. He's the best defensive forward in the game. Not enough offense for Selke though.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Murphy also gets hella sheltered. 65% offensive zone start?

I'm surprised it's not higher TBH.