GDT: Carolina @ Calgary: 25th Olympic Anniversary; Cool Runnings Edition

[tarheelhockey]

Are we betting those teams getting it together? It has been 30+ games

It would be unwise to bet on the entire group of them NOT getting it together. Either this division is even worse than the Southeast, or we're going to see a couple of teams make a run in the second half.

For the record, I didn't say the season is over or anything, but losing back to back against the Alberta teams puts us behind the 8-ball to defend our position. The game in Phoenix looked like it would be the "rubber" game to determine whether we had a winning or losing road trip. Now it's a game to prevent us from going winless altogether. If we lose another game or three, we're below .500 and having to find it in ourselves to hit a hot streak later to make up that ground -- and not a 3-gamer either, more like a 5 or 6 game surge. This team isn't showing anything to suggest that would happen.

I feel like we've had this discussion every season.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

That's the only issue though: If we believe the team thus far is what was expected, that they're performing as well (or as poorly) as they can, then it doesn't give a lot of optimism. That means in order to be above .500 (to the point where a playoff spot becomes secure), the team will have to play above their heads. They need sustained above average play.

Meanwhile, at least two teams in the division are underperforming and still have a similar record than Carolina. In order to secure a playoff spot, they just simply have to not underperform. They just need to be average

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

That's the only issue though: If we believe the team thus far is what was expected, that they're performing as well (or as poorly) as they can, then it doesn't give a lot of optimism. That means in order to be above .500 (to the point where a playoff spot becomes secure), the team will have to play above their heads. They need sustained above average play.

Meanwhile, at least two teams in the division are underperforming and still have a similar record than Carolina. In order to secure a playoff spot, they just simply have to not underperform. They just need to be average

Yes and no. In fairness the Canes have lost both goalies, Skinner and Semin for an extended period so far as well. I've always thought the Canes were a bubble team to so your point, yes, IMO, they need to overachieve and get a few breaks in order to make the playoffs. I think the defense is playing better than we expected, but the forwards are underperforming (with the exception of maybe Skinner and Gerbe) and our goaltending is not solidified. If Ward picks it up and Staal, Semin, etc..can come around, and the team stays relatively healthy, then they can do that.

But your point is valid. Canes need to play solid hockey without any major hickups, or they will likely be on the outside looking in.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

What's concerning is that Jeff Skinner is firing on all cylinders. Eric Staal has a ton of points in the last dozen games. Peters is providing great goaltending right now, and Ward, adequate. They're giving the team a chance to win. Jordan Staal is playing amazing defensive hockey right now.

And it's still not enough.

The way this team is constructed, we need more than our star players to show up. We need them to all get hot at the same time. It really speaks to our lack of quality depth.

That said, in the 3rd period last night, Semin and J. Staal showed decent chemistry. Really, Semin shows chemistry with anyone he is put with due to his love for setting up plays. If Semin is willing to play the defense (and for a winger on our team, it's mostly the will that matters), then an E. Staal-Skinner and J. Staal-Semin duo would be an excellent one-two punch. Provided Skinner and Eric can keep this up.

 

[Joe McGrath]

What really sucks about this loss is that it could have easily been 4 or 5 to 1 (or 0, really) if they didn't hit so many posts or could convert on the PS. The 2nd period was hot garbage and they still could have easily come out of it up 2-0.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I'm going to give Semin a few more games before I comment on how he's playing in detail, but he does one thing that just constantly drives me nuts: His decision-making on when to use a slapshot and when to use a wristshot is beyond frustrating.

Him, Skinner, and Staal had a 3-on-2 late in the game last night. Skinner goes up the wing, passes it to Semin, who's just entered the zone. Both Eric and Skinner are available for the pass and Semin's got some room to skate the puck into the zone a little.

Slapshot from the blueline...well wide...and both Eric and Skinner now have to circle back out of the zone, since it appeared both were expecting...anything but that.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I'm going to give Semin a few more games before I comment on how he's playing in detail, but he does one thing that just constantly drives me nuts: His decision-making on when to use a slapshot and when to use a wristshot is beyond frustrating.

Him, Skinner, and Staal had a 3-on-2 late in the game last night. Skinner goes up the wing, passes it to Semin, who's just entered the zone. Both Eric and Skinner are available for the pass and Semin's got some room to skate the puck into the zone a little.

Slapshot from the blueline...well wide...and both Eric and Skinner now have to circle back out of the zone, since it appeared both were expecting...anything but that.

If I had his wrist shot I'd never take a slapper if I could help it. Seriously.

 

[What the Faulk]

5-3-3 in the last 11 which represents a third of all games played this season. Semin played once and they still averaged 3.09 goals per game. Opponents are on a combined 92 points pace. Peters went 2-0-2, Cam 3-3-1.

Last week after San Jose it was "this team is great!". Now it's "playoffs, are you kidding me? PLAYOFFS?".

Can we stop overreacting to any one game? Do you think San Jose and Colorado and Anaheim all freaked the **** out and wanted to blow up their teams after their losses in Carolina? This is an 82 game season, no one is going undefeated and "upsets" happen.

The Metro is "bad" because everyone is .500 against each other and there's no terrible teams to feast on, and they suck against the West, and not even that much compared to the Atlantic (3 fewer wins on the year for the whole division). In the Big Ten/ACC showdown the Atlantic currently leads by 6 points over 74 games. Buffalo and Florida have played the Metro 7 times, the fewest of any Atlantic team (Montreal and Boston are at 12 each).

I said it before the season, every team in this division is flawed. Yeah, one team might suddenly pull away, but Carolina is just as valid an option as any.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I didn't see that play last night, but that type of play seems to happen a lot with Semin this year. Last year, he was making good decisions with the puck and creating offense. This year, he seems to either be slowing down flow or making a poor decision.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I didn't see that play last night, but that type of play seems to happen a lot with Semin this year. Last year, he was making good decisions with the puck and creating offense. This year, he seems to either be slowing down flow or making a poor decision.

The one last night if it is what I recall was at the end of a way too long shift. I don't know if it impacted his decision making or not just throwing it out there.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Can we stop overreacting to any one game? Do you think San Jose and Colorado and Anaheim all freaked the **** out and wanted to blow up their teams after their losses in Carolina? This is an 82 game season, no one is going undefeated and "upsets" happen.

You do realize those three teams had FAR more wins than losses when they faced us, right? And even then, San Jose may not have freaked out when they lost to us, but they did a bit when that losing streak extended to 4 games.

If we were well above .500 and had a game like last night, it'd be easy to say "Oh, it's one game. You're not going to win them all. Etc.". But we're not.

Instead, we've got a team that loses 3 in a row, wins 3 in a row, loses 4 in a row, wins two, etc. And that's not overreacting to one game, that's reacting to a concerning pattern.

 

[Identity404]

I'm going to give Semin a few more games before I comment on how he's playing in detail, but he does one thing that just constantly drives me nuts: His decision-making on when to use a slapshot and when to use a wristshot is beyond frustrating.

Yeah, I notice this too, but I don't think it is quite as annoying as Jordan continuing to try drop passes to invisible skaters.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Can we stop overreacting to any one game?

How about a winless road trip, can we react to that?

How about consecutive losses to the #26 and #28 teams in the league?

How about winning 13 of our 33 games so far?

This team has all its significant players back. They've had nearly half a season to figure out their roster and their system. They're in a playoff position purely on the basis of 2-3 divisional opponents struggling.

It's time for them to cut the crap and start winning hockey games. If it doesn't happen with a healthy roster and an upcoming stretch of only 4 games in 13 days, followed by a whole month of home games and short road trips with weak opponents, it's not going to happen (or it won't matter if it does). They've used up their excuses, now it's time to see results.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I made the comment about overreacting to the Vancouver game. Reacting to a 3rd loss (even if they got a loser point) is a whole lot different. This road trip really needed 5 points, and the best they can do is 4 now.

I think someone mentioned earlier, from now to the Olympics is going to make or break the season. There are many games that even this team SHOULD win and even more that are winnable. It's time to put your big boy pants on and win more games than you lose.

Random side note: why the hell didn't they rock 3 forwards at least once in OT?

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

It's because Semin's hockey sense isn't that good, despite probably having the 2nd best total package of talent in the League (behind OV). You would think, with his shot and his hands that he would be PPG all of the time at minimum.

But since his hockey sense isn't up there, we get a player who passes when he should shoot and shoots when he should pass. Luckily, he's elite at both so he can get away with it.

IMO, this is why you get comments like "If he tried, he'd be the best player in the League" while he was in Washington. It's not effort. His head can't keep up with the game as well as his hands.

Easily one of the two most talented players on the team, in spite of that.

 

[What the Faulk]

You do realize those three teams had FAR more wins than losses when they faced us, right? And even then, San Jose may not have freaked out when they lost to us, but they did a bit when that losing streak extended to 4 games.

If we were well above .500 and had a game like last night, it'd be easy to say "Oh, it's one game. You're not going to win them all. Etc.". But we're not.

Instead, we've got a team that loses 3 in a row, wins 3 in a row, loses 4 in a row, wins two, etc. And that's not overreacting to one game, that's reacting to a concerning pattern.

Doesn't matter. They're in a tight playoff race all the same. If they end up with 98 points and still somehow miss out, then they still somehow missed out. Hell Carolina is more firmly entrenched in a playoff spot than Colorado.

They may have "lost" three in a row, but the've got points in 5 of 6 and are 9-6-3 (96 pts) since the "season ended" in MSG. I'd also like them to win more often, especially against bad competition, but let's not act like they're a dumpster fire out there.

 

[DaveG]

It's getting to the point with this division where it really seems like what's going to matter is who beats who in divisional play. Our key is we're somehow 7-4-0 in Metro play. It's really what it's all going to come down to this year I think, and despite the fact that these divisional teams typically own us in regular season play (especially Pittsburgh and Philly) it hasn't played out that way... yet. 3 of the next 5 in division, absolutely MUST win 2 of those, preferably against the Caps who we're not far behind and the Jackets who aren't far behind us.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Doesn't matter. They're in a tight playoff race all the same. If they end up with 98 points and still somehow miss out, then they still somehow missed out. Hell Carolina is more firmly entrenched in a playoff spot than Colorado.

They may have "lost" three in a row, but the've got points in 5 of 6 and are 9-6-3 (96 pts) since the "season ended" in MSG. I'd also like them to win more often, especially against bad competition, but let's not act like they're a dumpster fire out there.

We've won 13 out of 33 games. That's 32 wins over a season. A full season, which means we're going to have to get a TON of OT/Shootout losses and loser points in order to make up that difference.

We're not a dumpster fire, but we need to kick it up a notch. We need to start winning games.

I'd bet that we could make the playoffs this year by getting a lot of OT/Shootout losses, but that's not sustainable by any means over the course of several years.

 

[What the Faulk]

How about a winless road trip, can we react to that?

How about consecutive losses to the #26 and #28 teams in the league?

How about winning 13 of our 33 games so far?

This team has all its significant players back. They've had nearly half a season to figure out their roster and their system. They're in a playoff position purely on the basis of 2-3 divisional opponents struggling.

It's time for them to cut the crap and start winning hockey games. If it doesn't happen with a healthy roster and an upcoming stretch of only 4 games in 13 days, followed by a whole month of home games and short road trips with weak opponents, it's not going to happen (or it won't matter if it does). They've used up their excuses, now it's time to see results.

What about going 3-3 against current Western playoff teams? 3-5-2 against Eastern playoff teams isn't good, but that means they're 7-5-5 against non-playoff teams. And they haven't played Buffalo or Florida yet.

They're in a playoff position because they played more than half the season at a playoff pace.

I made the comment about overreacting to the Vancouver game. Reacting to a 3rd loss (even if they got a loser point) is a whole lot different. This road trip really needed 5 points, and the best they can do is 4 now.

I think someone mentioned earlier, from now to the Olympics is going to make or break the season. There are many games that even this team SHOULD win and even more that are winnable. It's time to put your big boy pants on and win more games than you lose.

Who set that arbitrary number of 5 points? Why 5 and not 4 or 6? Why not all of them?

They're not playing flawless, I'm not arguing that. But you'd think this was 2010 or 11 or whenever they lost 14 in a row anytime adversity strikes. I'm not sure who's more mentally fragile -- the team or the fanbase.

 

[DaveG]

It's absolutely the fanbase. Then again, with how often we've seen the team either totally **** the bed yet still find themselves out of position to draft from the unquestionable top tier of talent (jury's still out on if Lindholm is in that tier, and we lucked out big time with Skinner), or just lose out in agonizing fashion over the past 7 years, I'd say it's kindof justifiable.

I ALMOST envy Tampa. At least when they suck they REALLY suck.

 

[Joe McGrath]

What about going 3-3 against current Western playoff teams? 3-5-2 against Eastern playoff teams isn't good, but that means they're 7-5-5 against non-playoff teams. And they haven't played Buffalo or Florida yet.

They're in a playoff position because they played more than half the season at a playoff pace.



Who set that arbitrary number of 5 points? Why 5 and not 4 or 6? Why not all of them?

They're not playing flawless, I'm not arguing that. But you'd think this was 2010 or 11 or whenever they lost 14 in a row anytime adversity strikes. I'm not sure who's more mentally fragile -- the team or the fanbase.

I set the arbitrary number, because they had 2 games against ****** teams, 1 against an above average team, and 1 against a very good team. Beat the two ****** teams, get to OT vs the above average team and lose to the very good team. There's still a strong possibility (say 50/50) they wind up with 2 points in 4 games and zero wins. That's unsuccesful at best, unacceptable at worst. If you expect people to just accept every 3 game + losing streak, that's not how most human beings operate. It's not unreasonable to be pissed off about losing 2 games in a row that they should have won.

 

[tarheelhockey]

What about going 3-3 against current Western playoff teams?

By 3-3 you mean 3-5-2.

LAK (2) - CAR (1) S/O L
PHX (5) - CAR (3) L
CHI (3) - CAR (2) S/O L
CAR (2) - COL (4) L
COL (1) - CAR (2) W
ANA (2) - CAR (3) S/O W
CAR (2) - STL (4) L
VAN (3) - CAR (2) L
SJS (3) - CAR (5) W
CAR (0) - VAN (2) L

3-5-2 against Eastern playoff teams isn't good, but that means they're 7-5-5 against non-playoff teams.

How is at all a positive thing to win 7 of 17 games against non-playoff teams?

Also, we're now 1-1-3 against Western non-playoff teams. For a total record of 8 wins in 22 games against the teams who are supposedly worse than us.

They're not playing flawless, I'm not arguing that. But you'd think this was 2010 or 11 or whenever they lost 14 in a row anytime adversity strikes. I'm not sure who's more mentally fragile -- the team or the fanbase.

It's a matter of not sticking our heads in the sand and believing that we're going on some magic late-season run to the playoffs. Enough of that crap. This team has been losing garbage games in the first half of the season for years now. It's becoming familiar and we know what we're seeing when we see it.

We just had to rally in consecutive games to get loser points from lottery teams. That is not "playoff pace" hockey, and it's not acceptable even in the context of a western road trip.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

DaveG, not to belittle your point, but why is a 7th overall pick "lucking out big time?" That is the whole point of scouting, to determine who REALLY are the better players in the junior and college ranks. And, there are definitely disagreements among teams and the central scouting lists. I remember Ottawa being incredulous when EK was still available at, what, 15? He was top 5 that year on their list.

I would wager that if they were honest with you, whoever pushed the hardest for the Skinner pick would tell you they are not surprised at all by his progression and overall play.

 

[What the Faulk]

The Oilers were *really* bad and it hasn't really helped them turn anything around.

By 3-3 you mean 3-5-2.

No I mean they're 3-3-3 (typo, my bad) against the Blackhawks, Blues, Avalanche, Wild, Ducks, Sharks, Kings and Coyotes. The playoff teams. Vancouver is not a playoff team at the moment.

How is at all a positive thing to win 7 of 17 games against non-playoff teams?

Also, we're now 1-1-3 against Western non-playoff teams. For a total record of 8 wins in 22 games against the teams who are supposedly worse than us.

Because hockey isn't about wins and losses, it's about points. They're not 7-10 against non-playoff teams, they're 7-5-5 (92 points). A couple years ago 39 wins got into the playoffs. A couple years before that 43 didn't. OTLs matter.

It's a matter of not sticking our heads in the sand and believing that we're going on some magic late-season run to the playoffs. Enough of that crap. This team has been losing garbage games in the first half of the season for years now. It's becoming familiar and we know what we're seeing when we see it.

We just had to rally in consecutive games to get loser points from lottery teams. That is not "playoff pace" hockey, and it's not acceptable even in the context of a western road trip.

Would it make everyone happier if they lost to San Jose as expected and got 2 more points from Calgary/Edmonton as expected? On paper, that's what "should" have happened, but the end result is the same.

I'll say it again: for more than half the season (their last 18 games) they've been playing at a playoff pace. And not just a barely-make-it-only-in-the-Metro playoff pace, 96 points would get them a 5 seed in the East right now. Is it sustainable? Who knows. I'm going with the larger sample size and not worrying about any one game at the moment, though.

 

[DaveG]

DaveG, not to belittle your point, but why is a 7th overall pick "lucking out big time?" That is the whole point of scouting, to determine who REALLY are the better players in the junior and college ranks. And, there are definitely disagreements among teams and the central scouting lists. I remember Ottawa being incredulous when EK was still available at, what, 15? He was top 5 that year on their list.

I would wager that if they were honest with you, whoever pushed the hardest for the Skinner pick would tell you they are not surprised at all by his progression and overall play.

I don't mean luck in him panning out, I mean it in the sense that there was absolutely zero consensus after the top 2 picks in that draft and we're lucky he was still on the board. Skinner VERY easily could have ended up in Columbus, Long Island, or Tampa if someone on their scouting staff liked him enough and did a good enough sell job. IIRC at the time there were a LOT of people saying the concern with Skinner was his size, but that aside from Hall he very well could be the best goal scorer from that draft year.


As you said, consensus doesn't really exist, even if some of the keyboard warriors on this site, which I can unfortunately count myself as being among from time to time. That 08 draft is an absolutely PERFECT example of that, even if the draft played out much as expected.