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Confirmed Trade: [CAR/COL/CHI] Mikko Rantanen (50%), Taylor Hall, Nils Juntorp to CAR; Martin Necas, Jack Drury, '25 2nd, '26 4th to COL; '25 3rd to CHI for retention

NotCommitted said:
Uhm... I'm pretty sure Rantanen can "drive his own line" to score 50 points a year like Necas has done? Ok I'm framing that in a way that's a bit unfair to Necas but only a bit, if the premise is "Necas is a line driver and Rantanen is not". Besides Carolina plays a very systemic game, everyone there tends to have really good shot metrics. The true test for Necas in COL is carrying the 2nd line or showing he can replace Rantanen and play 22 minutes a night with MacKinnon. I don't think just about anyone can play the kind of minutes MacKinnon and Rantanen have played for the past several years.

Also didn't Rantanen play like 25 minutes a night even centering the 1st line the other season when MacKinnon was injured? He's been a horse for COL, getting the job done, like I'm not saying the team didn't miss a beat with MacKinnon out, but that's not a realistic bar anyway.

I don't think this necessarily turns out bad for Colorado, could even turn out well if Necas takes the next step. Watching him in the playoffs the past couple seasons with Carolina, always struck me as a player who looks like he could be so much better if he "figured it out" or became "more involved" or whatever... but only showed flashes of what he could be.

I see why Colorado would do this though, especially if they feel they probably can't offer Rantanen enough money to make him stay. Necas doesn't have to become the same level as Rantanen to potentially be a very good value for COL. Of course depends if they sign him and what's the AAV gonna be, but since he doesn't have star level resume, it might keep it reasonable even if he does very well the rest of the year + next season.
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Huh?
There’s definitely been some situations where they’ve tried Rantanen on his own line and even at centre but they’ve mostly been failures like I mentioned in my last post.

Over the last 3 seasons 5v5 Mikko Rantanen has played 2549 minutes with Mackinnon and 782 minutes without.

Together they have a cf% of 56.78 and an Xgf% of 55.22.

Rantanen, away from Mackinnon has a cf% of 43.87 and an Xgf% of 41.94.

Not sure where you’ve gotten the indication that Rantanen has succeeded away from Mackinnon 5v5 but it’s the opposite. Rantanen has gotten destroyed.


 
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Chrispy said:
Looking at capwages, I wonder if the combination of acquiring Hall and retaining on Rantanen is Tulsky maxing out cap before putting Carrier on LTIR.

This way they get the max $2M for Carrier and they have Hall as a full $6M chip they can flip if needed to make cap space for different help.

If this happens, it's brilliant cap management by Tulsky.
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They can get a look at the Hall fit, and ship him off with a pick if it's bad. Likely just an insurance piece.
SnS said:
I’d guess with the current steals they have in other contracts. It’s letting them to budge on their internal player values.
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Canes have tons of cap next year.
 
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FB_IMG_1737856068317.jpg

They look so happy together
 
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Friedman said that Colorado may have been willing to go up to 11.75M.

Assuming Rantanen wanted 14M or so, I think they might regret it in the long run. 2M or so is not a lot to overpay a player of his stature. I do understand that they also have Makar coming up, but I think with Makar's stature, and where the cap is going, getting him under 14M might be a pipedream regardless of whether Rantanen is signed there as well.

I completely get why they felt timing wise that they couldn't do it - but I could see a scenario where 2.5 years from now Rantanen at 14M is not the big deal that it might seem like today.
 
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Three On Zero said:
With Rantanen being unhappy with the trade, you have to wonder if this helps push him to test free agency.
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I think he may be shocked it actually happened but I think he’s going to feel pretty good in Carolina being centered by Aho on another team that is clearly Cup or bust.

I know the rumor is he wants $14 AAV and yes, Carolina is a team that seems like it won’t go over their internal evaluation, assets be damned - but Mikko is a special case. The idea that they didn’t do it for Guentzel (the boatload extension) - doesn’t mean they won’t for Rantanen. He’s a different level.
 
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elmaco said:
This was explained in an article by The Athletic, Chicago was desperate to flip Hall before the end of his contract but didn't find anyone to bite. That's when Carolina came asking and wanted a retention on Rantanen to boot, and they took it.
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My assumption with Hall is that nobody wanted him or could fit him in with single retention, but he wasn't worth enough for double-retention to make any sense because a third party team would probably want a 4th round pick. Then you also factor in that any offer for Hall at half-retained probably has to be better than a 4th round pick, because that's roughly what Chicago could sell off their retention spot for.

When Carolina knew they were going to get Rantanen, I think they came up with the idea to use full single-retention on Rantanen's 9M+ cap hit as a proxy for double retention on Hall's 6M cap hit. That creates a win-win situation because Chicago doesn't have to irradiate the return on Hall by paying a 3rd party for the second retention.

While I highly doubt Carolina plans to flip Rantanen at the deadline, having him come in half-retained gives them a backup plan if they somehow end up outside of the playoffs and he wants to test the market. They don't have to depend on bringing in a third party team for double-retention on him because Chicago already retained. If they have to trade him, that will allow them to create a massive market.
 
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frightenedinmatenum2 said:
Friedman said that Colorado may have been willing to go up to 11.75M.

Assuming Rantanen wanted 14M or so, I think they might regret it in the long run. 2M or so is not a lot to overpay a player of his stature. I do understand that they also have Makar coming up, but I think with Makar's stature, and where the cap is going, getting him under 14M might be a pipedream regardless of whether Rantanen is signed there as well.

I completely get why they felt timing wise that they couldn't do it - but I could see a scenario where 2.5 years from now Rantanen at 14M is not the big deal that it might seem like today.
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I think you hit the nail on the head with Makar. The Avs valued Mikko but I think Makar is going to reset the market. I also think the Avs saw what a top heavy team going through injuries was like earlier this season and it wasn’t pretty.
 
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BKarchitect said:
I think he may be shocked it actually happened but I think he’s going to feel pretty good in Carolina being centered by Aho on another team that is clearly Cup or bust.

I know the rumor is he wants $14 AAV and yes, Carolina is a team that seems like it won’t go over their internal evaluation, assets be damned - but Mikko is a special case. The idea that they didn’t do it for Guentzel (the boatload extension) - doesn’t mean they won’t for Rantanen. He’s a different level.
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Rantanen level players don’t fall into your lap that often. They would be silly to not keep him at whatever cost
 
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Three On Zero said:
Rantanen level players don’t fall into your lap that often. They would be silly to not keep him at whatever cost
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Exactly. And with a bunch of contracts falling off the ledger and Aho, Jarvis, Svech and Slavin all locked into great long-term deals - I don’t think paying Rantanen top dollar is an issue.

Of course…this isn’t without risk. Both teams have some measure of “this can blow up in your face”. But it’s kinda of what makes this fun as a hockey deal. I respect both sides for being bold.
 
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i really hope the avs weren't stuck on $11.75m thats a bit too low. mack and rants had chemistry and thats worth spending a bit extra on. i fully get them not wanting to go as high at $13.5m though.
 
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Bedard didn't sound too impressed with the Hall trade. Are they not concerned at all that a trade request could be submitted sometime in the next year or so ? It is going to be even harder for him to win games
 
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