Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
- 32,778
- 9,724
Finished with a couple of assists (2+2).
Prospect Info: Caps Top Prospects General Discussion Thread - 2024
- Thread starter Calicaps
- Start date
-
ALL Pickem Pools are now open - NFL Survivor, NFL Pickem AND NHL Survivor Click here for info and to join a pool
Finished with a couple of assists (2+2).
I think you're correct in some ways, but it is also variance in terms of player development results. I'm not sure if I ever posted it, but I did some comparative research about Caps defense drafts, comparing 2014-2019 and 08-13, the first six drafts of GMBM and the last six drafts of GMGM, though obviously Mahoney ran all 12 drafts. When you look at the pick values spent on D in both samples, they're almost identical. The Caps ran good (in terms of positive variance) in the first sample, and ran bad in the second sample.
08-13 D Draft Capital:
08.1.27 Carlson
08.2.57 Mestery, 09.2.55 Orlov, 13.2.53 Bowey
09.4.115 Wey
09.5.145 Flemming, 11.5.147 Koudys, 12.5.137 Carrick, 13.5.144 Heinrich
10.6.176 Carrier
11.7.207 Haar, 12.7.195 Djoos, 12.7.197 Rissling, 13.7.204 Lewington
14 D picks, 4 in top 2 rounds, 10 after, would call Carlson/Orlov pure wins, Bowey, Carrick, Djoos as value, everybody else no value
Caps got a #1D and a #2D out of those drafts, plus 3 bottom of the lineup depth D.
14-19 D Draft Capital:
16.1.28 Johansen, 18 1.31 Alexevey
15.2.57 Siegenthaler, 18 2.46 Fehervary
17.4.120 Geisser
15.5.143 Hobbs, 17.5.151 Walfridsson, 19.5.153 Has
15.6.173 Williams, 16.6.177 Priskie, 17.6.182 Maass, 18.6.161 Kannok-Leipert
16.7.207 Zaitsev
13 D picks, 4 in top 2 rounds, 9 after, with much more mixed results. Fehervary and Siegenthaler are wins/value, nobody in the flier range provided any value, jury's still out on Alexeyev, rope's run out for Johansen.
They basically spent about the same amount of draft capital in each sample on defensemen, with the probable expectation of getting 1 top-pair defenseman in each sample. In the first sample they ran hot and got 2, in the second sample they ran cold and got 0. If they take Adam Fox instead of Lucas Johansen (and he signs), it suddenly becomes a successful sample. That's how much hitting on 1 pick affects the success rate, and nobody goes 100%.
We have 1 more draft to comprise a further sample of six, but from 2020-2024, here's what they've drafted.
20-24 D Draft Capital:
21.2.55 Iorio, 22.2.37 Chesley, 24.2.43 Hutson, 24.2.52 Muggli
21.3.80 Johnson
21.4.119 Lemay
23.5.136 Allen
21.6.176 Krebs
22.7.213 Gucciardi
Less later round picks, and no 1st rounder spent on D yet, but they did spend Boston's 2023 1st to acquire Rasmus Sandin, who was 18.1.29. I don't think that should actually be classified as part of their draft class, though. The other aspect is figuring out how long we should expect before guys become full-time. We have an 8 player sample, of which the results are thus:
08.1.27 Carlson - Games in D+2, full-time in D+3
09.2.55 Orlov - Games in D+3, not full-time until D+6 due to injury [though is argument was full-time D+4]
12.5.137 Carrick - Games in D+2, never really full-time
12.7.195 Djoos - Games in D+6, most he ever played in NHL
13.2.53 Bowey - Games in D+5, never really full-time
15.2.57 Siegenthaler - Games in D+4, full-time either +5 or +7 due to pandemic
18.1.31 Alexeyev - Games in D+5, not yet full-time
18.2.46 Fehervary - Games in D+2, full-time D+4 due to pandemic
[18.1.29 Sandin - Games in D+2, full-time D+4]
Iorio's gotten games in D+2 and D+3, Chesley still in college in his D+3. The other aspect that kinda colors this analysis is that both Carlson and Orlov were taken early in the sample, and thus developed during it, while Alexeyev and Fehervary were taken late in the sample, and developed during the next one.
In conclusion, when looking at those draft samples as a whole, the Caps results from 08-13 were probably 2 or 3 standard deviations above expectation in terms of value, while their picks from 14-19 are probably going to end up being 1 standard deviation below expectation. Their late round value especially, they got a ton of it in 08-13 due to Holtby and Grubauer, among others, and very little in 14-19. Getting Protas as a top-9 guy, and Malenstyn/Jonsson-Fjallby as 4th liners is below expectation for round 3+, but drafting 2 Vezina finalist goalies in the late rounds is not a repeatable accomplishment.
Don't forget the 2005 draft the one after Ovie and those two wasted 1st rounders on Dmen. I mean might be good to give that year pass considering the changes to the NHL after that lockout but still that year always sticks out.
Hadn't not much luck developing a diamond later in the draft Dman-wise. Still why I go back to that Chara free agency time.
Hadn't not much luck developing a diamond later in the draft Dman-wise. Still why I go back to that Chara free agency time.
Ya I've always considered the 04-07 drafts the tanking years, since we had top 5 picks in 3 of 4 years, and then 08-13 is the first window, when they started drafting in the 20s, followed by the second window of 14-19. You also have the parallel between the punted drafts of 2011 and 2017, once in each sample.
I agree on Chara, I really want somebody to get a real in-depth interview with GMGM on what he'd have done differently had they understood (then, what we know now) how a salary cap was going to affect team-building and contention windows. I have a feeling he'd have gone much harder on Chara if he'd realized then how important contending on your franchise player's ELC/RFA years was going to be (and how fast the cap would increase [and also how well Chara would age]).
Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
- 32,778
- 9,724
2024 World Junior Summer Showcase: Who stood out on Day 4
Canada and Sweden skated off with wins on the penultimate day of the week-long event.
www.dailyfaceoff.com
Still doubt he's a lock but he may be putting himself squarely on the bubble at least. It may help that there figures to be some chemistry with Iginla, seemingly a lock at this point.
Pure O players definitely need to really flash to get a chance.2024 World Junior Summer Showcase: Who stood out on Day 4
Canada and Sweden skated off with wins on the penultimate day of the week-long event.
Still doubt he's a lock but he may be putting himself squarely on the bubble at least. It may help that there figures to be some chemistry with Iginla, seemingly a lock at this point.
I want to circle back to the original point which is that the Caps are not doing what they need to do to 'develop' D. Caps drafting from 2015-2018 [14 and 19 were solid] was incredibly weak across all categories, due to a mixture of bad picks and low draft capital. If the Caps drafted Alex Romanov (taken 7 picks after AA in '18) or Sam Girard (taken 19 picks after LJ in '16), I don't think we're having this debate.
It's also worth pointing out that none of the D prospects that the Caps have let walk [Note: Siegs was traded not allowed to walk] have flourished someone else. That is usually a sign of poor development, but I don't see that here.
Geisser - played with Hershey a while; looks like he's in Europe for good
Hobbs - played with Hershey a while; looks to be done with professional hockey
Walfridsson - Never came over; never made it out of tier 2 Swedish hockey
Has - played in the ECHL last year
Williams - AHL now KHL
Priskie - 'The one that got away' played 4 for Florida but is now back in the Caps system
Maass - ECHL
Kannok-Leipert - AHL
Zaitsev - VHL (tier-2 Russia)
No one in that group screams to me 'could have been a full-time NHLer with better development'.
Simply put, the Caps have to be better at drafting defensemen. Otherwise, we're going to continue to have to go with veteran options like TvR, Jensen, Niskanen, Orpik, and now Chychrun and Roy to fill the gaps. Chelsey and Iorio are both on track to be NHLers (though likely as 4-5-6-7 types). Hutson is probably the only guy I see right now in the system who has a chance to be a top 3 guy if he hits his ceiling.
trick9
Registered User
- Jun 2, 2013
- 12,441
- 5,526
Beyond insane that Iginla is a lock while Cristall is not. Watching Kelowna last season it was obvious who was driving the bus most of the year. Even more so when the team collapsed when Cristall had injury struggles. But hey, atleast Iginla had that ~10 game stretch when he was arguably at the same level as Cristall.
If Cristall was a Habs prospect he'd be rated as a better prospect than Leonard.
If Cristall was a Habs prospect he'd be rated as a better prospect than Leonard.
Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
- 32,778
- 9,724
Eh. It's fine. Iginla's U18 performance and general versatility is what makes him a relatively easy fit. He can play any sort of role and be at least passable. Whereas they're not putting Cristall in a checking role. He's a top six or extra sort of player unless they opt for three scoring lines (which they probably should).
The question IMO is whether they decide to go with Cristall or McKenna/Catton/Heidt and whether there's perhaps room for a few of them. Certainly if there's PP opening he's showing himself capable. And if Hockey Canada decides to go a bit conservative and opts against McKenna he should have a very good shot. Either way he should attack all opportunities as though he has to perform to make the cut because that's the likely reality.
The ONE game i witnessed (yes, just ONE live), that was not the case. Iginla looked better than Cristall. By quite a bit.
That said, the SilverTips had like 4 forwards that looked better than any of them, so it was probably just a bad game. But Kelowna looked overwhelmed.
I originally made that statement and you and @Vilica both have some good breakdowns. No doubt it is really really hard to hit on defensemen past the second round. It’s also fair that maybe they didn’t draft well, but all of the first and second round picks seemed pretty reasonable.
I think the other lens is that those who have gotten an early shot at NHL have done well. Fever is the last one. I feel like we perhaps overcooked Alexyev but we had a lot of Dee under contract.
For Iorio, I feel like he could have developed more the last two years. He is being deployed more as a 3RD. Maybe that is just his talent level but I would have hoped they could coach him up to be an impactful 2RD this year and it wasn’t really the case. And he will again be a 2RD this year behind McIlrath. I hope he gets the development he needs because this is his last Waiver Exempt year. And then on Chesley I was hoping he would play 2 years of college and turn pro. But that has little to do with Caps but i hope he comes after 3.
Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
- 32,778
- 9,724
Hlinka Gretzky Cup: Top 20 2025 NHL Draft Prospects to watch
You know when people tweet about how much they miss hockey in the summer? Here’s your cure. A one-week summer...
www.dailyfaceoff.com
Nice remind here got them scheduled to be recorded.Ivan Hlinka action kicks off today with CZE/USA and SUI/CAN on NHLN. Josef Boumedienne's son, Sascha, will play for Sweden and be a teammate of Hutson at BU.Hlinka Gretzky Cup: Top 20 2025 NHL Draft Prospects to watch
You know when people tweet about how much they miss hockey in the summer? Here’s your cure. A one-week summer...
- Sep 29, 2016
- 12,271
- 5,995
Muggli eine weitere Saison beim EVZ, Kirsch in die USHL - EV Zug
Die Entscheidungen über die kurzfristige Zukunft der beiden EVZ NHL Draft-Picks 2024 sind gefallen: Während Christian Kirsch die Zuger in Richtung Nordamerika verlässt, wird Leon Muggli mindestens eine weitere Saison für den EVZ spielen.
www.evz.ch
EV Zug confirms Muggli has been loaned to them by the Capitals for "at least one season".
He’ll get a full season with EV Zug. Good development path for next year, especially since he has been in the org at various levels for 5 years. Good year of development and hopefully we see him in Hershey next year (maybe two).Muggli eine weitere Saison beim EVZ, Kirsch in die USHL - EV Zug
Die Entscheidungen über die kurzfristige Zukunft der beiden EVZ NHL Draft-Picks 2024 sind gefallen: Während Christian Kirsch die Zuger in Richtung Nordamerika verlässt, wird Leon Muggli mindestens eine weitere Saison für den EVZ spielen.
EV Zug confirms Muggli has been loaned to them by the Capitals for "at least one season".
Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
- 32,778
- 9,724
Good contest between Canada and Sweden at the Hlinka closing out group play. Canada up 1-0 through two periods. Boumedienne is hurt it seems. Hasn't played much. I'll be surprised if Schaefer isn't the top defenseman available next year. Super smooth.
Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
- 32,778
- 9,724
Wheeler's post-Hlinka 2025 ranking offers a decent initial overview of next year's class. The smaller forwards Benak, Mooney and Schmidt should be higher I think. Not super high on Schmidt all-around but his scoring instincts should put him a bit higher anyway. Also think Ravensbergen ought to be in the later stages of the first. Another guy I'd bump up a bit is Desnoyers, who seems like a naturally heady pro style two-way C. He's top ten for me thanks to his detail, sense and maturity.
All-in-all a bit of an underwhelming mid-range at this point, albeit with loads of time for players to emerge. This time last year Iginla hadn't yet emerged and Lindstrom was just an intriguing depth player at the Hlinka. A guy like Jackson Smith this year could easily work his way up...maybe not top ten but somewhere in the teens. The foundation is there and he was IMO Canada's second best D at the Hlinka after Schaefer. OTOH Boumedienne was underwhelming and had the look of more of an early second at best, particularly if he struggles at BU or settles into more of a depth role. There's some craft to his game with the puck at times but also a lot of passive/timid/indecisive play (granted, in August) for someone that will be playing against pretty high level competition. I'm not sure he was even Sweden's best defenseman at the Hlinka.
Loads of info here as well:
2025 NHL Draft: Scouting reports on over 100 players from the Hlinka Gretzky Cup
The first major scouting event of the 2025 NHL Draft season is complete. How did the players do?
www.dailyfaceoff.com
A couple at the top of the draft I like but as I go through initial draft ranking this seems like it might be the deepest draft.
Wheeler's post-Hlinka 2025 ranking offers a decent initial overview of next year's class. The smaller forwards Benak, Mooney and Schmidt should be higher I think. Not super high on Schmidt all-around but his scoring instincts should put him a bit higher anyway. Also think Ravensbergen ought to be in the later stages of the first. Another guy I'd bump up a bit is Desnoyers, who seems like a naturally heady pro style two-way C. He's top ten for me thanks to his detail, sense and maturity.
All-in-all a bit of an underwhelming mid-range at this point, albeit with loads of time for players to emerge. This time last year Iginla hadn't yet emerged and Lindstrom was just an intriguing depth player at the Hlinka. A guy like Jackson Smith this year could easily work his way up...maybe not top ten but somewhere in the teens. The foundation is there and he was IMO Canada's second best D at the Hlinka after Schaefer. OTOH Boumedienne was underwhelming and had the look of more of an early second at best, particularly if he struggles at BU or settles into more of a depth role. There's some craft to his game with the puck at times but also a lot of passive/timid/indecisive play (granted, in August) for someone that will be playing against pretty high level competition. I'm not sure he was even Sweden's best defenseman at the Hlinka.
Loads of info here as well:
2025 NHL Draft: Scouting reports on over 100 players from the Hlinka Gretzky Cup
The first major scouting event of the 2025 NHL Draft season is complete. How did the players do?
Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
- 32,778
- 9,724
We'll see. It seems like there's a tier separation right around 8 with Hensler and a guy like Reschny at 12, whose competitiveness I do like but is fairly small, doesn't suggest a super stacked draft very early on. But it could get there. There's a lot of potential. I was a bit underwhelmed by a few of Wheeler's mid-range guys (JIW, Guite in the later stages, Fiddler in terms of touches) to be there yet.
Mrtka was impressive and mainly needs to improve his skill/touches in addition to adding mass. Huang was intriguing from a skill standpoint. Gastrin could work his way higher if his skill/production takes off. The skilled upside of a Benak potentially available in the second half of the first definitely bodes well for available quality.
The Caps probably need to prioritize C/D over more wings barring exceptional cases but certainly Benak could qualify. He did often play center at the Hlinka and did display a competitive off-puck game, even if 5v5 against Canada he wasn't as easily able to take over. A lot to like, though, overall between a number of rangy defenders and skilled forwards in the back-half that could shoot up if they really dial it in. It does seem rather small up front, though, and (again) barring some exceptions might lead me to lean toward defense. Hutson & Muggli could be good ones but certainly some of the rangier options are very intriguing (and potentially quite valuable pieces).
Mrtka was impressive and mainly needs to improve his skill/touches in addition to adding mass. Huang was intriguing from a skill standpoint. Gastrin could work his way higher if his skill/production takes off. The skilled upside of a Benak potentially available in the second half of the first definitely bodes well for available quality.
The Caps probably need to prioritize C/D over more wings barring exceptional cases but certainly Benak could qualify. He did often play center at the Hlinka and did display a competitive off-puck game, even if 5v5 against Canada he wasn't as easily able to take over. A lot to like, though, overall between a number of rangy defenders and skilled forwards in the back-half that could shoot up if they really dial it in. It does seem rather small up front, though, and (again) barring some exceptions might lead me to lean toward defense. Hutson & Muggli could be good ones but certainly some of the rangier options are very intriguing (and potentially quite valuable pieces).
Last edited:
Marshall
A Mahoney guy
After my post filtering on position it looked like a strong Center draft at the moment so there is that.
Langway
In den Wolken
- Jul 7, 2006
- 32,778
- 9,724
Wheeler considers the '25 class below average at the moment. But that's the key qualifier. Ample time for that to improve...or not. If Desnoyers is available outside the top ten it may be a good draft for centers. Or if Benak sticks, continues to progress and someone like Moore puts it together. We'll see. It's also hard to tell whether guys like Reschny and Mooney will stick there. Gastrin has the look of a sturdy two-way middle six type and if he can up his production could rise up. Overall, though, up front it does seem like a rather small class. That's increasingly common but does introduce more doubt as to future versatility and risk/reward.
