Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[twabby]

I like Nelson as a player but I don't see him being all that different than Strome. He'd likely need to be sheltered given his poor defensive metrics.

He's not a perfect fit, and it's not even clear if he's available, but Ryan O'Reilly seems to be the best option out there. Can absorb tough ES matchups, is still a very good PP player, and can free up Strome to get easier minutes.

I wonder how something like this would work:

Ovechkin-Dubois-Protas
McMichael-O'Reilly-Wilson
Mangiapane-Strome-Leonard
Duhaime-Dowd-Eller/Raddysh/Whoever

Like others I just don't buy that what they have now is some well-oiled machine that shouldn't be tinkered with. They are vulnerable and should seek improvements. Too big of an opportunity this year to be comfortable standing pat. They should be disappointed if they have to stand pat.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Another contender in the east gets better. Jones to FLA.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Another contender in the east gets better. Jones to FLA.

I would take any of our 6 regular d-men over Jones!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I really don't think we're seeing the same thing. They're not losing because one or two players halfway down the lineup are not adequate. Upgrading Eller, or Mangi, for example, aren't why they are on a three game losing streak. Reinforcements are not the solution, because the problem is that the entire team is playing unmotivated and sloppy, for whatever reason. Slight upgrades to 3C or 3W, or even a new fresh 2nd liner, isn't going to make the other 16 or 17 skaters step back up and play like the dominant team they were for much of the season.

Unless you think upgrading incrementally from Eller to whoever else will make the rest of the team play better, you're not seeing the solution because you're solving for the wrong problem. The whole team needs a kick in the ass, or to find some new motivation considering they have practically locked up the division already. Teams ebb and flow. Swapping one or two players doesn't change that fact. It never has.

Dude many have been calling for a top-6 upgrade…hopeful that helps upgrade the bottom 6 by pushing a current player (or 2) down.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I would take any of our 6 regular d-men over Jones!

As the kids say these days, that’s cap. I would take Jones over TVR but I see what you’re saying.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

Yeah, I'll happily take Jones over Roy or TVR.

With retention, I guess it's $7 mil per year on Florida's cap. Really good deal for them, regrettably...

 

[kicksavedave]

Dude many have been calling for a top-6 upgrade…hopeful that helps upgrade the bottom 6 by pushing a current player (or 2) down.

Who are we pushing down to the 3rd line then? Willy, Pro, CMM or Ovi? CMM is the only possible move, but he's not paying poorly at all. Or are we acquiring a top 2 center to push, presumably, Strome to 3C, cause we know it's not going to be PLD moving down. Just as important as who are we demoting is who, realistically, is available that forces one of our top 6 down to 3rd line?

The only realistic move is a minor incremental upgrade to the 3rd line. That's not going to solve this three game cooler. But hey, if there's a move to be made, they'll make it. One thing our GM office isn't, is shy.

 

[MW6]

Can someone explain this to me? According to puckpedia Caps have $3,650,000 in cap space at the deadline, but they have an LTIR pool of $16,681,677. And then it projects the remaining cap space to be -$12,929,743. Can they add players with a total of ~$12,9M aav?

 

[Random schmoe]

Can someone explain this to me? According to puckpedia Caps have $3,650,000 in cap space at the deadline, but they have an LTIR pool of $16,681,677. And then it projects the remaining cap space to be -$12,929,743. Can they add players with a total of ~$12,9M aav?

Don't know if this really answers your question, but:

PuckPedia's "Projected Cap Space" number is based on the actual salary cap, without regard to any LTIR pool.

At the deadline they can add up to $3,650,000 in annual cap hits. (Assuming no other moves.)

The tool-tips on the various numbers provide mostly good concise descriptions.

Projected Cap Space: "Amount of Cap Space projected to be available at end of year. Calculated as Annual Salary Cap minus Projected Cap Hit."

Current Cap Space: "Amount of Annual Cap Hit that can be added to the roster without exceeding the Upper Limit (Salary Cap Maximum) based on the current roster. For teams using LTIR, Current Cap Space is the amount of annual cap hit that can be added without exceeding the Salary Cap by more than the team's LTIR Pool."

Deadline Cap Space: "Assuming the team does not make any roster moves between now and the trade deadline, this is the annual cap hit that the team can fit on trade deadline day. If the team adds cap hit between now than the deadline, the space at the deadline will decrease."

LTIR Pool: "The maximum amount of Long Term Injured Reserve space potentially available. This is the Cap Hit of player on LTIR less the Cap Space available for team at time player was on LTIR. A player can go on LTIR when they expect to miss 10 games and 24 days in the season. A player on LTIR does not come off of the salary cap, instead a team is allowed to exceed the cap by the LTIR amount."

Annual Cap Hit: "The Annual Cap Hit based on the current roster, calculated by summing all Cap Hits of players currently counting towards the Salary Cap + retained salary + buyouts."

 

[OV Rocks]

The way this team makes a long run is by having the appropriate players in the right spots. Caps are an interesting team because they have probably 2 elite second lines, no real 1st line, below average 3rd line, and an elite 4th line. Which means there has to be some shuffling to get everyone in the right spots for a playoff run.

Protas-PLD-Wilson is a high end shut down the other teams first line group. With last change (1st in the east) that is on paper enough to get you 4 out of 7.

Duhaime-Dowd-Mangipanie should be your 4th line.

Ovi-Strome-Gotta Get Someone makes for your offensive zone start line. Rantanen? Boeser? Forsberg? All great options.

That leaves the black hole of a 3rd line.

How about some combo of McMichael/Lapierre, Stevenson, Cristal, 1st/2- 1sts for ROR and Forsberg

 

[Misery74]

Let’s start by bringing Jimi and Miro back.

Waive Vrana and whoever needed. Put them both on a line with CMM for a few games.

 

[MW6]

Don't know if this really answers your question, but:

PuckPedia's "Projected Cap Space" number is based on the actual salary cap, without regard to any LTIR pool.

At the deadline they can add up to $3,650,000 in annual cap hits. (Assuming no other moves.)

View attachment 985324

The tool-tips on the various numbers provide mostly good concise descriptions.

Projected Cap Space: "Amount of Cap Space projected to be available at end of year. Calculated as Annual Salary Cap minus Projected Cap Hit."

Current Cap Space: "Amount of Annual Cap Hit that can be added to the roster without exceeding the Upper Limit (Salary Cap Maximum) based on the current roster. For teams using LTIR, Current Cap Space is the amount of annual cap hit that can be added without exceeding the Salary Cap by more than the team's LTIR Pool."

Deadline Cap Space: "Assuming the team does not make any roster moves between now and the trade deadline, this is the annual cap hit that the team can fit on trade deadline day. If the team adds cap hit between now than the deadline, the space at the deadline will decrease."

LTIR Pool: "The maximum amount of Long Term Injured Reserve space potentially available. This is the Cap Hit of player on LTIR less the Cap Space available for team at time player was on LTIR. A player can go on LTIR when they expect to miss 10 games and 24 days in the season. A player on LTIR does not come off of the salary cap, instead a team is allowed to exceed the cap by the LTIR amount."

Annual Cap Hit: "The Annual Cap Hit based on the current roster, calculated by summing all Cap Hits of players currently counting towards the Salary Cap + retained salary + buyouts."

Ok, thanks! The description wasn’t as elaborating on my phone.
How accurate are these numbers based on the prorated deal for Eller and call-ups etc? Do we think there’s some more wiggle room than the 3,65M AAV projection?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Who are we pushing down to the 3rd line then? Willy, Pro, CMM or Ovi? CMM is the only possible move, but he's not paying poorly at all. Or are we acquiring a top 2 center to push, presumably, Strome to 3C, cause we know it's not going to be PLD moving down. Just as important as who are we demoting is who, realistically, is available that forces one of our top 6 down to 3rd line?

The only realistic move is a minor incremental upgrade to the 3rd line. That's not going to solve this three game cooler. But hey, if there's a move to be made, they'll make it. One thing our GM office isn't, is shy.

That is up to the coaching staff and dependent on who they acquire.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Another contender in the east gets better. Jones to FLA.

Lol I'd argue they might have gotten worse with that move and they're stuck with 7m for another five years for a bottom pairing defender who's already 30.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Lol I'd argue they might have gotten worse with that move and they're stuck with 7m for another five years for a bottom pairing defender who's already 30.

Let’s just see. That’s a very nice pickup. Suddenly surrounded by a good team….he could be a massive steal at his reduced cap hit to them.
.

 

[zappa4ever]

This is why I'm anti-President's Trophy and why #1 overall can be a bad thing

plenty of Cheat and Bad Habits seeping into the Caps game, just look at the 1st periods of the last 15 games or so
weak starts, giving up the 1st G most of the time
confident that a shitty start will be made up for the 2nd half of the game... until it doesn't
THAT is what gives you a 1st round exit

I'm Pro-President's Trophy when you rise and fight to claim it the last 20 gms, not when you've been at the top all year and lose incentive to play hard down the stretch

I'm not a fan of losing streaks but I am a fan of losing the illusion that your shit don't stink

 

[g00n]

The way this team makes a long run is by having the appropriate players in the right spots. Caps are an interesting team because they have probably 2 elite second lines, no real 1st line, below average 3rd line, and an elite 4th line. Which means there has to be some shuffling to get everyone in the right spots for a playoff run.

Protas-PLD-Wilson is a high end shut down the other teams first line group. With last change (1st in the east) that is on paper enough to get you 4 out of 7.

Duhaime-Dowd-Mangipanie should be your 4th line.

Ovi-Strome-Gotta Get Someone makes for your offensive zone start line. Rantanen? Boeser? Forsberg? All great options.

That leaves the black hole of a 3rd line.

How about some combo of McMichael/Lapierre, Stevenson, Cristal, 1st/2- 1sts for ROR and Forsberg

How do we not have a 1st line but have the #T5th, #T17th, and #T30th ranked goalscorers in the league?

How are Wilson and Protas just shutdown guys to throw at the other team's top line when they're the T17 and T30 ranked scorers mentioned above?

How are we leading the East in points and only trailing the Jets in the entire NHL if we are so flawed?

What's the real picture? The last 3 games or the rest of the season?

There is a lot of recency bias going on with the last few games, but I expect a letdown after a MASSIVE offensive explosion coming out of the break.

They will figure it out, and I don't think we'll be burning a lot of high end talent or draft capital to do it.

This is why I'm anti-President's Trophy and why #1 overall can be a bad thing

plenty of Cheat and Bad Habits seeping into the Caps game, just look at the 1st periods of the last 15 games or so
weak starts, giving up the 1st G most of the time
confident that a shitty start will be made up for the 2nd half of the game... until it doesn't
THAT is what gives you a 1st round exit

I'm Pro-President's Trophy when you rise and fight to claim it the last 20 gms, not when you've been at the top all year and lose incentive to play hard down the stretch

I'm not a fan of losing streaks but I am a fan of losing the illusion that your shit don't stink

IMO they came out flying after the 4N break because they hadn't played in a while and were fresh. After a couple of signature wins they got back into that familiar "coast mode" we saw for years at the tail end of the season when the playoffs were assured and all they were doing was running out the string.

These are the same guys who looked nearly flawless in their quick, precise execution and positioning just a few games ago. They're slacking is all. They may not even realize it.

 

[Random schmoe]

Ok, thanks! The description wasn’t as elaborating on my phone.
How accurate are these numbers based on the prorated deal for Eller and call-ups etc? Do we think there’s some more wiggle room than the 3,65M AAV projection?

They might have up to $200,000 or so extra (or less for that matter), but I'd be surprised if it's much more than that. I think the public numbers are pretty accurate.

Maybe worth pointing out that PP shows the $3.65M number as their available space at the deadline. But CapWages shows them CURRENTLY with $3,818,333, but projects $4,475,000 as their available space at the deadline (in full year AAV). I believe PP is correct and CW is wrong, since the Caps are using LTIR they shouldn't be accruing additional cap space as the season moves along. But I'm not really an expert in how all this stuff works.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

They might have up to $200,000 or so extra (or less for that matter), but I'd be surprised if it's much more than that. I think the public numbers are pretty accurate.

Maybe worth pointing out that PP shows the $3.65M number as their available space at the deadline. But CapWages shows them CURRENTLY with $3,818,333, but projects $4,475,000 as their available space at the deadline (in full year AAV). I believe PP is correct and CW is wrong, since the Caps are using LTIR they shouldn't be accruing additional cap space as the season moves along. But I'm not really an expert in how all this stuff works.

Yeah, looking at the #s in your earlier post, I was tempted to ask why their current and deadline day space would be identical - logic suggests they should be accruing add'l space as deadline day draws near - but the LTIR factor could explain why that number doesn't budge, at least according to PP.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Let’s start by bringing Jimi and Miro back.

Waive Vrana and whoever needed. Put them both on a line with CMM for a few games.

I agree about bringing Jimi and Miroshnichenko back and moving out Vrana, and Milano.

If Chicago, who suddenly is down an experienced D, would do Donato for Bear straight up (both UFAs) we could keep CMM at 2W and then have

Mangiapane
Lapierre
Donato
Leonard
Frank

All available to mix and match for a reasonably effective to very good 3rd line depending on who gels and steps up. Plus there would be depth. Keep AA and Big Mac as depth.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I agree about bringing Jimi and Miroshnichenko back and moving out Vrana, and Milano.

If Chicago, who suddenly is down an experienced D, would do Donato for Bear straight up (both UFAs) we could keep CMM at 2W and then have

Mangiapane
Lapierre
Donato
Leonard
Frank

All available to mix and match for a reasonably effective to very good 3rd line depending on who gels and steps up. Plus there would be depth. Keep AA and Big Mac as depth.

This doesn’t move the needle much.

 

[EroCaps]

This is why I'm anti-President's Trophy and why #1 overall can be a bad thing

plenty of Cheat and Bad Habits seeping into the Caps game, just look at the 1st periods of the last 15 games or so
weak starts, giving up the 1st G most of the time
confident that a shitty start will be made up for the 2nd half of the game... until it doesn't
THAT is what gives you a 1st round exit

I'm Pro-President's Trophy when you rise and fight to claim it the last 20 gms, not when you've been at the top all year and lose incentive to play hard down the stretch

I'm not a fan of losing streaks but I am a fan of losing the illusion that your shit don't stink

I mean sure but no team is like “let’s start slow” it’ll be fine. The best teams typically start well, lull, and finish well. Occasionally a team goes on a run and carries the momentum to a Cup.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Feels like it’s always the same thee or four teams really looking to make moves.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Let’s just see. That’s a very nice pickup. Suddenly surrounded by a good team….he could be a massive steal at his reduced cap hit to them.
.

He's a 5m player max, even reduced to 7 he's overpaid. Could you imagine paying TVR 7m a year?

 

[Misery74]

How do we not have a 1st line but have the #T5th, #T17th, and #T30th ranked goalscorers in the league?

How are Wilson and Protas just shutdown guys to throw at the other team's top line when they're the T17 and T30 ranked scorers mentioned above?

How are we leading the East in points and only trailing the Jets in the entire NHL if we are so flawed?

What's the real picture? The last 3 games or the rest of the season?

There is a lot of recency bias going on with the last few games, but I expect a letdown after a MASSIVE offensive explosion coming out of the break.

They will figure it out, and I don't think we'll be burning a lot of high end talent or draft capital to do it.



IMO they came out flying after the 4N break because they hadn't played in a while and were fresh. After a couple of signature wins they got back into that familiar "coast mode" we saw for years at the tail end of the season when the playoffs were assured and all they were doing was running out the string.

These are the same guys who looked nearly flawless in their quick, precise execution and positioning just a few games ago. They're slacking is all. They may not even realize it.

I have to disagree. Ovechkin is 39. Two kicks left at the can. Now or never. We are a great team, but there has always been room for improvement.

I would classify our third line as a fifth line. It’s the leftovers.

Mangia - 3c - 3RW

The 3RW ideally comes from line 1 or 2. Or, they simply add Leonard as 3RW.

We don’t have a 3c on the roster though. Eller is barely a 4c. Certainly not a 3c on a 2025 Cup winner.

Third line center must be a priority. I agree, don’t empty the vault.