Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[Kazer]

Strome, just working on his 3rd straight career season here with us.

I’m confident CMM’s initial 24 games were an aberration until he proves he can do it over sustained multiple seasons. For now though, I’d be happy if he got back to a 60 point pace instead of the 39 point pace he’s now been on for the majority of the season.


Zero group think, it’s called actual analysis.

One side of this debate is going on actual performance, the other, on hopes, dreams, and prayers….

I don't think you get to say you're basing it on actual performance and then discount almost half his actual performance (29 vs 24).

If you're asking me who McMichael is (first half or second half), I agree with you that he's probably closer to a 40 point player than an 80 point player, but I don't think the first half can be dismissed as an aberration. He's a talented player who got hot, but he's prone to cold streaks. That's VERY common amongst NHL players who aren't superstars. Protas had a stretch last year where he scored 3 goals and 11 points over 45 games last season while averaging over 14 minutes per game.

If you can find a hockey trade a la Necas for Rantanen (adjusted a bit down since Necas > McMichael), I'm all aboard. But otherwise, I'm hanging onto a very good middle-six winger who can play PP, PK, and contribute at even strength.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You wouldn't move CMM for Forsberg?

Must have missed that discussion, but I’d consider that for sure.

I don't think you get to say you're basing it on actual performance and then discount almost half his actual performance (29 vs 24).

If you're asking me who McMichael is (first half or second half), I agree with you that he's probably closer to a 40 point player than an 80 point player, but I don't think the first half can be dismissed as an aberration. He's a talented player who got hot, but he's prone to cold streaks. That's VERY common amongst NHL players who aren't superstars. Protas had a stretch last year where he scored 3 goals and 11 points over 45 games last season while averaging over 14 minutes per game.

If you can find a hockey trade a la Necas for Rantanen (adjusted a bit down since Necas > McMichael), I'm all aboard. But otherwise, I'm hanging onto a very good middle-six winger who can play PP, PK, and contribute at even strength.

I didn’t discount it, I clearly acknowledged it in writing 24 in 24 multiple times. Sadly that’s now the smaller part of the season played…and in the same breath you state he’s closer to a 40pt guy than and 80, so what’s your issue really lol?

Wasn’t it you who dissected his early 24 game run and showed how much above his norms he was? If not you; someone else and it’s there for review.

I said I’d move him for a core addition only so it seems we’re on the same page there.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I said I’d move him for a core addition only so it seems we’re on the same page there.

And this may shock you, I'm always open to a real hockey trade when it makes sense.

Though I don’t think it makes sense for a team like the Caps to make a hockey trade for someone who is much older/more expensive and potentially closer to decine. Especially if it was for only an arguable increase in performance. The thing about the Caps is there are so many young players with so much potential upside and potential to overachieve what their perceived potential is that it makes more sense to not give away that potential but rather use a 1st for a rental (and any of AA, Milano, V, or Bear) if you want to add more offence for a run.

My main stance for us is to continue to patient and reassess each summer. Seems like that has been the general philosophy GMBM/GMCP have held to. The point about Protas' long cold spell last season speaks to that.

 

[Kazer]

Must have missed that discussion, but I’d consider that for sure.



I didn’t discount it, I clearly acknowledged it in writing 24 in 24 multiple times. Sadly that’s now the smaller part of the season played…and in the same breath you state he’s closer to a 40pt guy than and 80, so what’s your issue really lol?

Wasn’t it you who dissected his early 24 game run and showed how much above his norms he was? If not you; someone else and it’s there for review.

I said I’d move him for a core addition only so it seems we’re on the same page there.

Maybe I'm misconstruing your argument, but I understood your prior take as 'he's a 40 point player who had one good stretch and probably will never replicate that because it was an aberration'. The reality, which we seem to agree on, is that he's better than the past 29 games but worse than the first 24. The big question is where exactly does he fall in that wide spectrum.

And yes, his earlier streak in the year was largely a byproduct of high shooting percentage / high on-ice shooting percentage and his recent slump is related to those factors cratering. Now that this has effectively 'evened out', it will be very interesting to see how the last 29 games go. Can he get hot again and finish nearly PPG (which would push his year point total to almost 70)? Will he continue to slump and finish with closer to 50/51/52 points? Or will he land somewhere in the middle (his current pace is 60 points). My money is on 60 points.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Maybe I'm misconstruing your argument, but I understood your prior take as 'he's a 40 point player who had one good stretch and probably will never replicate that because it was an aberration'. The reality, which we seem to agree on, is that he's better than the past 29 games but worse than the first 24. The big question is where exactly does he fall in that wide spectrum.

And yes, his earlier streak in the year was largely a byproduct of high shooting percentage / high on-ice shooting percentage and his recent slump is related to those factors cratering. Now that this has effectively 'evened out', it will be very interesting to see how the last 29 games go. Can he get hot again and finish nearly PPG (which would push his year point total to almost 70)? Will he continue to slump and finish with closer to 50/51/52 points? Or will he land somewhere in the middle (his current pace is 60 points). My money is on 60 points.

Your bet is that he’s going to score at least 21 points in his last 29 games to hit 60? That’s a whole giant 6 points more than his current 29 game “slump” so your expectations are clearly LOW.

To be clear, I think he could put up another hot streak, IF the entire team is buzzing around him playing at a high level like they started the season, I just don’t have a lot of faith otherwise that he can do a lot of that heavy lifting without massive help around him.

I’m more concerned about him in the postseason. I don’t think he’s particularly built for highly contested and physical games in the playoffs, but we’ll see.

@ArmadilloThumb brings up Protas as some sort of cautionary tale, but Protas is much more physically gifted than CMM as we all see.

 

[Silky mitts]

Caps chose to bridge CMM early before Kuzy terminated his deal, if they loved him 3000 like they do Protas a longer deal would have materialized



Didn't play vs Oettinger when he signed his deal, McDavid after a suspension, now this from the well oiled machine that is the Flyers #blessings

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Caps chose to bridge CMM early before Kuzy terminated his deal, if they loved him 3000 like they do Protas a longer deal would have materialized

You bring up a good point, but CMM might have chosen to bet on himself. Caps could have offered a similar deal and were rejected. Hard to know.

The more damning angle would be the Caps refused to offer more and WANTED to bridge him.

 

[Kazer]

Your bet is that he’s going to score at least 21 points in his last 29 games to hit 60? That’s a whole giant 6 points more than his current 29 game “slump” so your expectations are clearly LOW.

To be clear, I think he could put up another hot streak, IF the entire team is buzzing around him playing at a high level like they started the season, I just don’t have a lot of faith otherwise that he can do a lot of that heavy lifting without massive help around him.

I’m more concerned about him in the postseason. I don’t think he’s particularly built for highly contested and physical games in the playoffs, but we’ll see.

@ArmadilloThumb brings up Protas as some sort of cautionary tale, but Protas is much more physically gifted than CMM as we all see.

Well 20 points stretched over a third of the season is 6.66. So, yeah, it is a 6 to 7 point differential (since 29 games is pretty close to 1/3 of the year). But the real difference is how that relatively small difference impacts his full year production:

Slump pace only (if 82 games) - 11 goals, 31 assists, 42 points
Full season pace (if 82 games) - 28 goals, 32 assists, 60 points
Hot streak pace only (if 82 games) - 48 goals, 34 assists, 82 points

Looking at last year (23-24), 42 points puts you around 175-200 in the league in terms of points scoring. 60 points puts you around 85-100. And 82 points (PPG) puts you around 25-30. I'd say those are huge differences. The first group (175-200) you're looking at players like Kane, Eberle, Saad, Crouse. The second group (60 point players) has players including Ehlers, Schmaltz, Benn, Gaudreau (RIP). Third group has players including Stamkos, Barkov, and Robertson.

So, in sum, 6 points may not seem like much but over the course of a full season it makes a huge difference when you are evaluating future McMichael production. Slump pace suggests Oct/Nov were a total outlier. Middle pace suggests that Oct/Nov were an outlier but also suggests that December/January were too (in the other direction of course). Hot pace suggests that Dec/Jan were actually the aberration.

Finally, the above makes a massive difference in terms of how the team evaluates him. If they think he's a 60 point or 80 point player, they should probably keep him. If they think he's a 40 point player, they should try to sell high as others have alluded to (and you may have as well) as his value may be at its peak (career highs in goals and points + signed 1 more year at 2.1).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Well 20 points stretched over a third of the season is 6.66. So, yeah, it is a 6 to 7 point differential (since 29 games is pretty close to 1/3 of the year). But the real difference is how that relatively small difference impacts his full year production:

Slump pace only (if 82 games) - 11 goals, 31 assists, 42 points
Full season pace (if 82 games) - 28 goals, 32 assists, 60 points
Hot streak pace only (if 82 games) - 48 goals, 34 assists, 82 points

Looking at last year (23-24), 42 points puts you around 175-200 in the league in terms of points scoring. 60 points puts you around 85-100. And 82 points (PPG) puts you around 25-30. I'd say those are huge differences. The first group (175-200) you're looking at players like Kane, Eberle, Saad, Crouse. The second group (60 point players) has players including Ehlers, Schmaltz, Benn, Gaudreau (RIP). Third group has players including Stamkos, Barkov, and Robertson.

So, in sum, 6 points may not seem like much but over the course of a full season it makes a huge difference when you are evaluating future McMichael production. Slump pace suggests Oct/Nov were a total outlier. Middle pace suggests that Oct/Nov were an outlier but also suggests that December/January were too (in the other direction of course). Hot pace suggests that Dec/Jan were actually the aberration.

Finally, the above makes a massive difference in terms of how the team evaluates him. If they think he's a 60 point or 80 point player, they should probably keep him. If they think he's a 40 point player, they should try to sell high as others have alluded to (and you may have as well) as his value may be at its peak (career highs in goals and points + signed 1 more year at 2.1).

this just highlights why his name comes up in the trade discussions and why he’s not even on the short list of untouchables/basically untouchables.

If he paces the next 29 as he has the last, that leaves him at around 52 points. My conservative guess, maybe he hits 55. They won’t think of him as a 60 pt guy unless he does more with the rest of the season.

 

[Melkor]

Too much emotion in this CMM talk. The thing with him is pretty simple: nobody is suggesting they should just get rid of him because he sucks but he's the most obvious trade candidate for the reasons he might look valuable for this team on paper right now - his contract, his numbers still looking relatively good and his age. If not for that there would be no reasonable discussion because his market value would be close to zero.

That being said, he's not playing well, he's definitely not somebody who carries an ability to decide the outcome of a big game off of his sheer skill/imposing presence in key moments, his most obvious qualities are, let's be honest, replaceable.

If there's somebody of a Forsberg caliber who can be had for a package centered around McMichael - you take it and figure the cap thing out. I don't care about all that chemistry talk, their position in the standings and all that. You get as many great players as you can as a GM and then do your job behind the bench as a coach.

 

[Hivemind]

Even if he's "only" a 40 point player, $2.1M is a steal of a deal for a 40 pt player (especially one that plays both special teams). There are other assets I'd move before CMM.

 

[alphabetical]

It's worth noting that McMichael has 7 points in his last 8 games. He's no longer in a slump.

 

[qc14]

BTW, I love this passionate discussion, and as someone else previously said, I haven’t seen a player/package suggested in a trade that I WOULD move CMM for, but I’m open to moving almost anyone in the right deal for the right player coming back. Not for a rental, for a core addition.

Of the guys that loosely could be available:

Marner is the big one for me, would've done it for Rantanen or Necas as well. Barzal I think would make a lot of sense in the summer. Thomas or Kyrou if STL ever decides to do something. Forsberg, EP, or Panarin I don't hesitate about sending him specifically out but I'd also want to see the rest of the deal before I could fully evaluate it. Would probably pass on Byram but would do Power, could be convinced to change my mind for either of them though. Fiala is the forward version of Byram and Lafreniere the forward version of Power. If Quinn Hughes ever really does come available they can take McMichael, Protas, and Leonard for all I care.

Him being involved would almost certainly be a no go for me on any of the following: Zegras, Andersson, Weegar, Kadri, Bjorkstrand, Boeser, Middlestadt, ROR, Buchnevich, Nelson, Zibanejad, Kreider, Couturier, Rakell, Rust, Karlsson, Marchand, Tuch, Cozens, Dach, Norris

 

[um]

I'm confused by this CMM talk. Who suggested we give him away?

 

[Ridley Simon]

BTW, I love this passionate discussion, and as someone else previously said, I haven’t seen a player/package suggested in a trade that I WOULD move CMM for, but I’m open to moving almost anyone in the right deal for the right player coming back. Not for a rental, for a core addition.

I’ve been touting Tuch for a few months, and wanted to offer CMM. That got shot down by the masses, PDQ.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's worth noting that McMichael has 7 points in his last 8 games. He's no longer in a slump.

2pts in his last 3, 1g 6 assists in his last 8….More concerning is probably 3 goals in 27 games….pulling for him.

I'm confused by this CMM talk. Who suggested we give him away?

Nobody…

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Of the guys that loosely could be available:

Marner is the big one for me, would've done it for Rantanen or Necas as well. Barzal I think would make a lot of sense in the summer. Thomas or Kyrou if STL ever decides to do something. Forsberg, EP, or Panarin I don't hesitate about sending him specifically out but I'd also want to see the rest of the deal before I could fully evaluate it. Would probably pass on Byram but would do Power, could be convinced to change my mind for either of them though. Fiala is the forward version of Byram and Lafreniere the forward version of Power. If Quinn Hughes ever really does come available they can take McMichael, Protas, and Leonard for all I care.

Him being involved would almost certainly be a no go for me on any of the following: Zegras, Andersson, Weegar, Kadri, Bjorkstrand, Boeser, Middlestadt, ROR, Buchnevich, Nelson, Zibanejad, Kreider, Couturier, Rakell, Rust, Karlsson, Marchand, Tuch, Cozens, Dach, Norris

there’s a lot of good players in that list…..many I would certainly seriously consider assuming they are not rentals or can be extended. Some guys listed there who could makes us a much tougher out in the playoffs.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Of the guys that loosely could be available:

Marner is the big one for me, would've done it for Rantanen or Necas as well. Barzal I think would make a lot of sense in the summer. Thomas or Kyrou if STL ever decides to do something. Forsberg, EP, or Panarin I don't hesitate about sending him specifically out but I'd also want to see the rest of the deal before I could fully evaluate it. Would probably pass on Byram but would do Power, could be convinced to change my mind for either of them though. Fiala is the forward version of Byram and Lafreniere the forward version of Power. If Quinn Hughes ever really does come available they can take McMichael, Protas, and Leonard for all I care.

Him being involved would almost certainly be a no go for me on any of the following: Zegras, Andersson, Weegar, Kadri, Bjorkstrand, Boeser, Middlestadt, ROR, Buchnevich, Nelson, Zibanejad, Kreider, Couturier, Rakell, Rust, Karlsson, Marchand, Tuch, Cozens, Dach, Norris

I cannot agree with you on Kadri, ROR, Marchand, Tuch. Any of those 4 would make the Caps a *much* tougher out in the loffs.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’ve been touting Tuch for a few months, and wanted to offer CMM. That got shot down by the masses, PDQ.

It’s hard to shed that Buffalo stank!

Dude scores a lot of greasy goals in tight..MIGHT be a beast on a good team in the postseason.

 

[um]

I’ve been touting Tuch for a few months, and wanted to offer CMM. That got shot down by the masses, PDQ.

I was on the CMM for Miller train.

I view CMM as a valuable asset to get a star player. This what to do with CMM talk is confusing.

 

[Coldnwindy]

If Chych doesn't resign with us, I would take a look at trading for Dobson from the Islanders. 25 yo, 6'4" offensive RHD who scored 70 pts last season and is an RFA after this season. Isles fans seem to have soured on him this season so he could be a good "buy low" target as a Carlson replacement. Potentially Mike for Dobson?

 

[um]

It's worth noting that McMichael has 7 points in his last 8 games. He's no longer in a slump.

That's the Protas effect.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

ROR interests me a bit. I wouldnt trade CMM for him but the 1st rounder I might.

 

[qc14]

I cannot agree with you on Kadri, ROR, Marchand, Tuch. Any of those 4 would make the Caps a *much* tougher out in the loffs.

Should've clarified -- it's not that I don't think all of those guys are better or less "valuable" in whatever way you want to take that word than McMichael. Rather I can see a very clear path to the Caps acquiring them that does not involve moving on from McMichael.

I'd rather have Marchand than McMichael for the playoffs. I would much rather have both!