Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[Kazer]

Strome, just working on his 3rd straight career season here with us.

I’m confident CMM’s initial 24 games were an aberration until he proves he can do it over sustained multiple seasons. For now though, I’d be happy if he got back to a 60 point pace instead of the 39 point pace he’s now been on for the majority of the season.


Zero group think, it’s called actual analysis.

One side of this debate is going on actual performance, the other, on hopes, dreams, and prayers….

I don't think you get to say you're basing it on actual performance and then discount almost half his actual performance (29 vs 24).

If you're asking me who McMichael is (first half or second half), I agree with you that he's probably closer to a 40 point player than an 80 point player, but I don't think the first half can be dismissed as an aberration. He's a talented player who got hot, but he's prone to cold streaks. That's VERY common amongst NHL players who aren't superstars. Protas had a stretch last year where he scored 3 goals and 11 points over 45 games last season while averaging over 14 minutes per game.

If you can find a hockey trade a la Necas for Rantanen (adjusted a bit down since Necas > McMichael), I'm all aboard. But otherwise, I'm hanging onto a very good middle-six winger who can play PP, PK, and contribute at even strength.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You wouldn't move CMM for Forsberg?

Must have missed that discussion, but I’d consider that for sure.

I don't think you get to say you're basing it on actual performance and then discount almost half his actual performance (29 vs 24).

If you're asking me who McMichael is (first half or second half), I agree with you that he's probably closer to a 40 point player than an 80 point player, but I don't think the first half can be dismissed as an aberration. He's a talented player who got hot, but he's prone to cold streaks. That's VERY common amongst NHL players who aren't superstars. Protas had a stretch last year where he scored 3 goals and 11 points over 45 games last season while averaging over 14 minutes per game.

If you can find a hockey trade a la Necas for Rantanen (adjusted a bit down since Necas > McMichael), I'm all aboard. But otherwise, I'm hanging onto a very good middle-six winger who can play PP, PK, and contribute at even strength.

I didn’t discount it, I clearly acknowledged it in writing 24 in 24 multiple times. Sadly that’s now the smaller part of the season played…and in the same breath you state he’s closer to a 40pt guy than and 80, so what’s your issue really lol?

Wasn’t it you who dissected his early 24 game run and showed how much above his norms he was? If not you; someone else and it’s there for review.

I said I’d move him for a core addition only so it seems we’re on the same page there.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I said I’d move him for a core addition only so it seems we’re on the same page there.

And this may shock you, I'm always open to a real hockey trade when it makes sense.

Though I don’t think it makes sense for a team like the Caps to make a hockey trade for someone who is much older/more expensive and potentially closer to decine. Especially if it was for only an arguable increase in performance. The thing about the Caps is there are so many young players with so much potential upside and potential to overachieve what their perceived potential is that it makes more sense to not give away that potential but rather use a 1st for a rental (and any of AA, Milano, V, or Bear) if you want to add more offence for a run.

My main stance for us is to continue to patient and reassess each summer. Seems like that has been the general philosophy GMBM/GMCP have held to. The point about Protas' long cold spell last season speaks to that.

 

[Kazer]

Must have missed that discussion, but I’d consider that for sure.



I didn’t discount it, I clearly acknowledged it in writing 24 in 24 multiple times. Sadly that’s now the smaller part of the season played…and in the same breath you state he’s closer to a 40pt guy than and 80, so what’s your issue really lol?

Wasn’t it you who dissected his early 24 game run and showed how much above his norms he was? If not you; someone else and it’s there for review.

I said I’d move him for a core addition only so it seems we’re on the same page there.

Maybe I'm misconstruing your argument, but I understood your prior take as 'he's a 40 point player who had one good stretch and probably will never replicate that because it was an aberration'. The reality, which we seem to agree on, is that he's better than the past 29 games but worse than the first 24. The big question is where exactly does he fall in that wide spectrum.

And yes, his earlier streak in the year was largely a byproduct of high shooting percentage / high on-ice shooting percentage and his recent slump is related to those factors cratering. Now that this has effectively 'evened out', it will be very interesting to see how the last 29 games go. Can he get hot again and finish nearly PPG (which would push his year point total to almost 70)? Will he continue to slump and finish with closer to 50/51/52 points? Or will he land somewhere in the middle (his current pace is 60 points). My money is on 60 points.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Maybe I'm misconstruing your argument, but I understood your prior take as 'he's a 40 point player who had one good stretch and probably will never replicate that because it was an aberration'. The reality, which we seem to agree on, is that he's better than the past 29 games but worse than the first 24. The big question is where exactly does he fall in that wide spectrum.

And yes, his earlier streak in the year was largely a byproduct of high shooting percentage / high on-ice shooting percentage and his recent slump is related to those factors cratering. Now that this has effectively 'evened out', it will be very interesting to see how the last 29 games go. Can he get hot again and finish nearly PPG (which would push his year point total to almost 70)? Will he continue to slump and finish with closer to 50/51/52 points? Or will he land somewhere in the middle (his current pace is 60 points). My money is on 60 points.

Your bet is that he’s going to score at least 21 points in his last 29 games to hit 60? That’s a whole giant 6 points more than his current 29 game “slump” so your expectations are clearly LOW.

To be clear, I think he could put up another hot streak, IF the entire team is buzzing around him playing at a high level like they started the season, I just don’t have a lot of faith otherwise that he can do a lot of that heavy lifting without massive help around him.

I’m more concerned about him in the postseason. I don’t think he’s particularly built for highly contested and physical games in the playoffs, but we’ll see.

@ArmadilloThumb brings up Protas as some sort of cautionary tale, but Protas is much more physically gifted than CMM as we all see.

 

[Silky mitts]

Caps chose to bridge CMM early before Kuzy terminated his deal, if they loved him 3000 like they do Protas a longer deal would have materialized



Didn't play vs Oettinger when he signed his deal, McDavid after a suspension, now this from the well oiled machine that is the Flyers #blessings

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Caps chose to bridge CMM early before Kuzy terminated his deal, if they loved him 3000 like they do Protas a longer deal would have materialized

You bring up a good point, but CMM might have chosen to bet on himself. Caps could have offered a similar deal and were rejected. Hard to know.

The more damning angle would be the Caps refused to offer more and WANTED to bridge him.