Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[CapitalsCupReality]

I became a CMM fan boy. Ill admit it. I want to keep him and see him play better. In his hot streak he looked like one of the fastest players on the ice and would be a game breaker. That has been gone maybe he is hurt.
I think the 2 weeks off is going to help everyone, not just CMM

That’s why I wanted to wait until the 60 game + mark to reassess, but he’s heading in the wrong direction. Time off should indeed help refresh everyone.

 

[caps4cup]

We’ve all seen a lot more than 20 games….we’ve been watching for years now.

- 24 points in his first 24 games including 14g
- 4g 11a his next 29

He’s just playing himself into trade discussions to be honest as this slide continues.

Is he barely a 40pt guy (that’s what his most recent 29 game span equates to over 82) who just rode a team and personal hot streak early, or is he more?

That extra year would be valuable to an acquiring team considering him for an extension.

Only Dubois, Protas, and Raddysh (among regulars) have a higher points/60 at 5v5 than CMM in those last 29 games.

Not saying he can’t be upgraded. Those first 24 games may not have been real. But this slump also might not be either.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Only Dubois, Protas, and Raddysh (among regulars) have a higher points/60 at 5v5 than CMM in those last 29 games.

Not saying he can’t be upgraded. Those first 24 games may not have been real. But this slump also might not be either - especially if he sticks on PP1.

How many others have more actual real points in that time? Pace only carries so much weight in analysis. Production carries the most. Remember when those few defended Kuzy by rate/per lol…

And that’s why we continue to reassess to see if he works his way out of this….just makes him tradable is all as this continues.

 

[caps4cup]

How many others have more actual real points in that time? Pace only carries so much weight in analysis. Production carries the most. Remember when those few defended Kuzy by rate/per lol…

And that’s why we continue to reassess….just makes him tradable is all as this continues.

Among forwards, only Protas and Dubois have more points at 5v5.

Only Strome and Wilson have more points on the PP.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Among forwards, only Protas and Dubois have more points at 5v5.

That’s not what I asked….how many of his teammates in all ice time, outproduced him?

 

[caps4cup]

That’s not what I asked….how many of his teammates in all ice time, outproduced him?

He’s 3rd among forwards in 5v5 points and 3rd in PP points. He’s 5th among forwards in all situations points.

Not sure if that’s supposed to be a gotcha but in no way does that make CMM look bad. He’s not producing as well as he did earlier in the season, but he’s producing better than most everyone else.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He’s 3rd among forwards in 5v5 points and 3rd in PP points. He’s 5th among forwards in all situations points.

Not sure if that’s supposed to be a gotcha but in no way does that make CMM look bad. He’s not producing as well as he did earlier in the season, but he’s producing better than most everyone else.

He’s producing at a 39 point pace for what is now the majority of the season (last 27 games).

It’s not pretty, but he’s not damned for eternity either. Just sayin…..that is exactly why his name gets batted around in trade talks.

 

[caps4cup]

He’s producing at a 39 point pace for what is now the majority of the season (last 27 games).

It’s not pretty, but he’s not damned for eternity either. Just sayin…..that is exactly why his name gets batted around in trade talks.

I don’t disagree with you. My point was that while his production lately has been disappointing after the hot start, I don’t think he’s even close to a problem as a top 6 winger on this team.

In that same timeframe, he has 2 less points than Strome while playing 30 less minutes on PP. He has 5 less points than Wilson, while playing 20 less minutes on the PP (Wilson also has 4 EN points to CMM’s 0). The only other forwards with more points than him are PLD and Protas.

Would we all love for him to produce like he did the first 24 games? For sure. His ixG/60 and Shots/60 are much lower than they were at the beginning of the season and I’d like to see that creep back up, but his finishing has regressed too far the other way, and good things still happen offensively when he’s on the ice (his xGF/60 is 3rd among forwards in the last 29 games). I would hope once he settles in again on that 2nd line, his production picks back up.

 

[DWGie26]

I don’t disagree with you. My point was that while his production lately has been disappointing after the hot start, I don’t think he’s even close to a problem as a top 6 winger on this team.

In that same timeframe, he has 2 less points than Strome while playing 30 less minutes on PP. He has 5 less points than Wilson, while playing 20 less minutes on the PP (Wilson also has 4 EN points to CMM’s 0). The only other forwards with more points than him are PLD and Protas.

Would we all love for him to produce like he did the first 24 games? For sure. His ixG/60 and Shots/60 are much lower than they were at the beginning of the season and I’d like to see that creep back up, but his finishing has regressed too far the other way, and good things still happen offensively when he’s on the ice (his xGF/60 is 3rd among forwards in the last 29 games). I would hope once he settles in again on that 2nd line, his production picks back up.

But in order to get you have to give. All of your stats are pretty impressive. he is not as bad through an agnostic lens as it is through Caps lens who watch him all of the time. At a 2.1M cap hit this year and next, that contract is easy to move and the Cap hit has value. So I’m willing to include him in a deal to bring in a top six. Hurts, but we have an opportunity to upgrade and we should do it. One mans trash is another man pleasure. Nothing wrong with that when you have the gold.

 

[caps4cup]

But in order to get you have to give. All of your stats are pretty impressive. he is not as bad through an agnostic lens as it is through Caps lens who watch him all of the time. At a 2.1M cap hit this year and next, that contract is easy to move and the Cap hit has value. So I’m willing to include him in a deal to bring in a top six. Hurts, but we have an opportunity to upgrade and we should do it. One mans trash is another man pleasure. Nothing wrong with that when you have the gold.

I would say the 2.1mil cap hit has a lot of value (to the Caps too). Would I trade him for a legit top line winger? Yeah - depending on that player’s cap hit. Having a legit top 6 winger like CMM at 2.1mil next year lets them be pretty aggressive this offseason. It’s very likely that CMM and a 6mil offseason add (whether it’s at F or a allotting it towards Chychrun or a Chychrun replacement) is more valuable than any other way they could use that 8.1mil, just as an example.

His contract is likely to be one of the most valuable in the league next year for non ELC players.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don’t disagree with you. My point was that while his production lately has been disappointing after the hot start, I don’t think he’s even close to a problem as a top 6 winger on this team.

In that same timeframe, he has 2 less points than Strome while playing 30 less minutes on PP. He has 5 less points than Wilson, while playing 20 less minutes on the PP (Wilson also has 4 EN points to CMM’s 0). The only other forwards with more points than him are PLD and Protas.

Would we all love for him to produce like he did the first 24 games? For sure. His ixG/60 and Shots/60 are much lower than they were at the beginning of the season and I’d like to see that creep back up, but his finishing has regressed too far the other way, and good things still happen offensively when he’s on the ice (his xGF/60 is 3rd among forwards in the last 29 games). I would hope once he settles in again on that 2nd line, his production picks back up.

I guess we’ll see. It’s been a while so far….

I would say the 2.1mil cap hit has a lot of value (to the Caps too). Would I trade him for a legit top line winger? Yeah - depending on that player’s cap hit. Having a legit top 6 winger like CMM at 2.1mil next year lets them be pretty aggressive this offseason. It’s very likely that CMM and a 6mil offseason add (whether it’s at F or a allotting it towards Chychrun or a Chychrun replacement) is more valuable than any other way they could use that 8.1mil, just as an example.

His contract is likely to be one of the most valuable in the league next year for non ELC players.

That’s a stretch on a prayer…

 

[twabby]

I think the difference between McMichael and Strome is that Strome has a larger body of work to fall back on. McMichael has been a top 6 caliber player for a month or two of his career. Strome has had a few years of being a legit top 6 center.

Strome needs to get back into his old form for sure, but I have more confidence that he's simply in a funk while with McMichael this may just be who he is.

 

[qc14]

Re McMichael:

I think he evens out around basically exactly what he's been this year. A 55ish point streaky winger who can play 3c if you need him to and is a good PP2 option. Those players are valuable. There's no need to move him to just get another version of him, especially when the Caps have a lot of other options in terms of how they could add a big piece. That being said, if you can get a true star forward I'm not hesitating too much. Marner shaking loose? Send him to Toronto. Patrick wants to add Boeser at the deadline? Just send the 25 1st

 

[trick9]

He’s producing at a 39 point pace for what is now the majority of the season (last 27 games).

It’s not pretty, but he’s not damned for eternity either. Just sayin…..that is exactly why his name gets batted around in trade talks.

For all the same reasons as to you just pointed out he shouldn't be untouchable (which, i agree), he's not that valuable either.

I'll be shocked if there's a deal out there where he returns a big upgrade. But at the same time, CMM is still vastly outperforming his current contract and is already familiar with the team. I doubt he's going to move.

 

[HTFN]

here's my problem with this discourse: to my eyes CMM also just plays smart hockey. I said the same with his junior progress, he's a guy who takes time to acclimate to the level of play and then his brain starts to show. He's flashed it up here even if he hasn't figured it out offensively to the same level, but it's wild to want to sell on that when he's not someone we complain about for doing the wrong thing very often either like he's a liability.

we can ho hum about production recently even though it discounts other stuff he 100% did but when we talk about replacements and guys like Boeser come up, are they really defensively there? CMM doesn't bother me on the eye test and seems like a smart guy with a center pedigree that gets back when he needs to do it, loses at a rate I'd expect from a developing guy, but could absolutely be a middle 6 staple for some team for a lot of years. He's in the right spot contractually to do whatever needs done too, which you don't get with some acquisitions suggested.

He's not a Selke guy but I haven't seen a package so far that isn't selling for a very short lived vision of success and seems fixated on "tunnel vision" improvement. This team is wildly better off holding on to CMM and getting into his next contract discussion than trading him for 90% of these suggested offers. A middle 6 who can play strong in all phases and also be streaky to the tune of being better and flashing more is not a bad thing at all.

 

[Kuz]

Some of it is also luck based as McM was shooting 19,5 % the first 26 games. while he have been shooting 7,5% the last 27. He have 11 assist in his last 27 to 10 in the first 26.

So with a more equal shooting % it would be a little closer, but he have also shot a lot less. He had 77 shots in the first 26 games and only have 40 in the last 27. He is playing a little worse and getting of fewer shots, but it might also be a confidence thing where he is shooting less as he is scoring less.