Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[caps4cup]

3,5 Dowd would be a tough decision, lets hope it gets done with lower cap hit.

But no, Appleton or Suter is not similar level players. Dowd is 4th line C playing 3rd line minutes in a shutdown role against the best players in the world.

Wingers come and go but whoever you put with Dowd immediately rises their stock. Caps have had the best fourth line in the league as long as Dowd has been here. Thats quite important when your first line is pretty meh.

Keeping Dowd makes it easier to spend less on the bottom6 wingers too.

Suter is arguably even better than Dowd (his market value is higher according to Dom L’s model), with similar defensive impacts and more production. He’s also 6 years younger.

Appleton has a similar offensive impact, good but slightly lesser defensive impact, and is also 6 years younger. Dom has him as a 3.3mil market value, Dowd at 4mil.

I’m not trying to s*** on Dowd because he’s been unbelievable and is a really good 4th liner. But he will be 35 next season and his two biggest weaknesses (his speed and penalty differential) are only going to get worse as he ages. If they can resign him on a 1 or 2 year deal at under 3mil, they should be all for it. I’d just be wary of going over 3mil or longer than 2 years since they have been so good at finding value depth UFA’s and really need to supplement the top of the lineup.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Eric Staal was pretty damn good in his prime

But not a Superstar….he’s right.

Wild that his best production year was his 2nd season, age 21, 45+55=100, then a pretty big droffoff to a mostly a 70pt guy (one 82 point season) then lower and lower.

 

[Kolzilla]

Suter is arguably even better than Dowd (his market value is higher according to Dom L’s model), with similar defensive impacts and more production. He’s also 6 years younger.

Appleton has a similar offensive impact, good but slightly lesser defensive impact, and is also 6 years younger. Dom has him as a 3.3mil market value, Dowd at 4mil.

I’m not trying to s*** on Dowd because he’s been unbelievable and is a really good 4th liner. But he will be 35 next season and his two biggest weaknesses (his speed and penalty differential) are only going to get worse as he ages. If they can resign him on a 1 or 2 year deal at under 3mil, they should be all for it. I’d just be wary of going over 3mil or longer than 2 years since they have been so good at finding value depth UFA’s and really need to supplement the top of the lineup.

For both/either Lindgren and Dowd, how does anyone feel about deferred compensation if they would go for it?

Sign them to 2-3 years deals but defer salary for an additional 1-2 years after to keep AAV lower. Once the deferred cap hit kicks in, the cap will have exploded by then.

Just a spitball idea, not sure how all the nuances would work in this scenario.

 

[The Instigator]

For both/either Lindgren and Dowd, how does anyone feel about deferred compensation if they would go for it?

Sign them to 2-3 years deals but defer salary for an additional 1-2 years after to keep AAV lower. Once the deferred cap hit kicks in, the cap will have exploded by then.

Just a spitball idea, not sure how all the nuances would work in this scenario.

Deferring salary probably won't actually drop the AAV all that much.

For example, deferring half of a one year $3 million contract year doesn't save you $1.5 million against the cap that year, nor does it count against the cap your next year.

You'd have to defer a lot of money on a big contract for it to do anything worthwhile. PuckPedia has a pretty good write up I think for more info.

 

[Brian23]

Sign them to 2-3 years deals but defer salary for an additional 1-2 years after to keep AAV lower. Once the deferred cap hit kicks in, the cap will have exploded by then.

That isn't, or I don't believe it should be, possible in the NHL. The closest parallel would be the MLB and that's not how salary deferral works in it.

Generally, the way deferrals works is you sign someone to a 5 year 100 million dollar deal, and then say defer half the payments for the next 5 years. That doesn't mean they have 10 years of 10 million dollar cap hits, they still have 20 million a year for 5 years against the cap, it just ends up letting the team/owners save some money yearly and spread out their payroll.

The closest to what you're describing would I guess be void years in the NFL? But that isn't possible in the NHL due to the guaranteed nature of contracts.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Dowds contract reminds me of Beagle in 2018 and we let him walk

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

That's why they are saying we are keeping him up. Sorry Bears

 

[Calicaps]

That's why they are saying we are keeping him up. Sorry Bears

I would be unsurprised to see him end up as part of a trade.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Dowds contract reminds me of Beagle in 2018 and we let him walk

Beags, and before him Halpy, and maybe Kono and Ulfie. Traded or allowed to sign elsewhere for big paydays. Seems like a learned organizational strategy with aging, quality defensively-oriented centers and their linemates.

 

[Kolzilla]

That isn't, or I don't believe it should be, possible in the NHL. The closest parallel would be the MLB and that's not how salary deferral works in it.

Generally, the way deferrals works is you sign someone to a 5 year 100 million dollar deal, and then say defer half the payments for the next 5 years. That doesn't mean they have 10 years of 10 million dollar cap hits, they still have 20 million a year for 5 years against the cap, it just ends up letting the team/owners save some money yearly and spread out their payroll.

The closest to what you're describing would I guess be void years in the NFL? But that isn't possible in the NHL due to the guaranteed nature of contracts.

It is possible in the NHL, look at Vatranos extension in ANA, that's what triggered the idea. But as The Instigator pointed it out, it probably won't work for the AAV range for these two players.

Deferring salary probably won't actually drop the AAV all that much.

For example, deferring half of a one year $3 million contract year doesn't save you $1.5 million against the cap that year, nor does it count against the cap your next year.

You'd have to defer a lot of money on a big contract for it to do anything worthwhile. PuckPedia has a pretty good write up I think for more info.

Thanks, I'll check out the puck pedia write up!

 

[DWGie26]

Dowd and Beagle have different timings and different skill sets. They will absolutely resign Dowd for OV’s last year. If I am GM i am signing Dowd and others for two years. Gives them OV’s last year and a transition year. Then we see who fits after that.

I like @Calicaps thought on Frank being part of a trade. He is a prime age player with upside that someone will see value in. not a lot. But better than a 4th plus.

 

[twabby]

They need one more credible top 6 forward. PLD, Protas, Wilson, and the good version of Strome are 4. None are game breakers, but they all belong. Assuming Ovechkin is there as well for legacy reasons, that leaves one more glaring spot.

McMichael hasn't done enough to stay in the top 6. Strome has struggled but he at least has a larger body of work to fall back on, and he seems like he could be rounding back into form with a few good games of late.

 

[Melkor]

They need one more credible top-6 forward and if he's on the table - you take it. Play driver or not, if you're gonna contend - grab a good player and then it's Carbery's job to make it work in a tight timeframe. Everyone wants a playdriver, is this organization ready to pay for it right now the price that is going to be asked? I think not.

 

[Ridley Simon]

They need one more credible top-6 forward and if he's on the table - you take it. Play driver or not, if you're gonna contend - grab a good player and then it's Carbery's job to make it work in a tight timeframe. Everyone wants a playdriver, is this organization ready to pay for it right now the price that is going to be asked? I think not.

Why wouldn’t they? Going to be a top 5 in points team I’d wager, at worst.

Could win the Prez Trophy, at best.

I hope they show some gumption, but not stupidly.

 

[Melkor]

You thought the Rantanen trade was something big? Yeah that was nothing

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Their articles always leave me down which is odd given our team is second in the league. I will say though some of the underlying numbers make me feel less crazy, in the sense that they are managing to find ways to win and get points, but are not actually playing that well on most nights and a few players are quite literally saving their ass (LT is the man). That being said, no need for doom and gloom, but they need to find a way for more consistency in their game, and how not to defend so much.

 

[Melkor]

Why wouldn’t they?

I don't think they would be ready to part with players that are going to get brought up in trade convos for a top level talent. Seems like they like their roster a lot and are not going to overhaul it during the season even for a long term benefit. Me personally - I'd do it but dont think they will...on the other hand...

f*** it, Honestly after what happened in the NBA I think nobody should be surprised even if Ovechkin gets sent packing to a damn Utah. That trade completely changed my perception of how a trade market works in major leagues.

 

[caps4cup]

Their articles always leave me down which is odd given our team is second in the league. I will say though some of the underlying numbers make me feel less crazy, in the sense that they are managing to find ways to win and get points, but are not actually playing that well on most nights and a few players are quite literally saving their ass (LT is the man). That being said, no need for doom and gloom, but they need to find a way for more consistency in their game, and how not to defend so much.

Weird timing considering they have a 57% xGF% at 5v5 the last 5 games, probably their best mini stretch in almost 2 months.

 

[Lou Sassole]

"When it came to the Washington Capitals' 5-4 overtime loss to the Winnipeg Jets, coach Spencer Carbery had one regret: not putting Ethen Frank out on the ice for some 3-on-3 action and the game on the line.

"I'm mad at myself I didn't play him in overtime," Carbery said boldly minutes after the defeat."


Yeah, no shit, so was the entirety of Caps Fandom. Lol.

 

[Silky mitts]

I don’t always read RMDB, but when I do, it’s because the story involves Russia

Recommend the Break the Ice podcast, Vogel goes deep with guys, the Dubois and Poile ones were must listen, doesn’t come out that often though