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Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

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caps4cup said:
Yeah he’s still taken a big leap but he just doesn’t complement those two at all. He’s still top 10 in xG but his finishing has regressed and he’s also seeing less PP time than earlier in the year. He’s still really good - that line is just an awful fit for both he and the Strome/Ovechkin duo.
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I see he’s 4th in xGF and 4th in xGA…live by the sword die by the sword….
 
Melkor said:
I think if someone like CMM keeps sucking hard, you better try Leonard somewhere in that top-9 and I really don't care if it's CMM or somebody else down the lineup who gets to sit in the press box because of that. If he earns the spot in those games then he should play. He woudn't be the first nor last who would get playing time by just arriving for the playoffs.


I think if everything is as it is by the end of the season they should return to the idea of trading CMM. Or Lapierre. Or both and add a pick or two to get better. They need to address the lack of real talent up front and on the right D side.
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I think the hot start created some unrealistic expectations. Among regular forwards on the team he’s 2nd in 5v5 shots/60, 1st in ixG/60, and 4th in points/60.

He just turned 24 and is in all likelihood going to be a 25-30 goal, 55-60 point forward this year while not getting 1st unit PP time. With his cap hit, it’s most likely very difficult to make the team better next season by trading him.
 
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caps4cup said:
I think the hot start created some unrealistic expectations. Among regular forwards on the team he’s 2nd in 5v5 shots/60, 1st in ixG/60, and 4th in points/60.

He just turned 24 and is in all likelihood going to be a 25-30 goal, 55-60 point forward this year while not getting 1st unit PP time. With his cap hit, it’s most likely very difficult to make the team better next season by trading him.
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I'm more inclined to think the hot start was an anomaly and he's not a real 25-30 goal scorer. More like 15-20 goals and 45-50 points in his good normal year is what he is going to settle at. With his current cap hit and respectable advanced stats, he's exactly the player who could make the team better by getting traded as a centerpiece of the deal. The question is will the front office do it before it's time to sign him to a new contract and it would already be too late to pounce on his supposedly high market value right now.
 
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Assuming the eventual 4th line is Duhaime - Dowd - Raddysh, i think the pieces are there to build 3 great lines when Leonard joins. I like the idea of CMM - Eller - Leonard line. As a 3rd line there's less pressure to produce but all the pieces are there to work.

Strome, Dubois, Ovechkin, Protas, Wilson and Mangiapane is good enough 6 to build top 2 lines in that case. If it doesn't work, flip Mangiapane and CMM around. Frank and Miro are both guys capable of filling in if there's injuries. Will be interesting to see which Milano comes back too from injury.
 
Melkor said:
On another note...is it too early to say yet or Frank has become a regular in this lineup going forward? If Leonard signs the contract today, where does he fit into all of this?
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Frank's speed is a good complement, especially since they traded Beck, it's like when they traded for Chimera, once he got settled in they won 17 in a row
 
caps4cup said:
I think the hot start created some unrealistic expectations. Among regular forwards on the team he’s 2nd in 5v5 shots/60, 1st in ixG/60, and 4th in points/60.

He just turned 24 and is in all likelihood going to be a 25-30 goal, 55-60 point forward this year while not getting 1st unit PP time. With his cap hit, it’s most likely very difficult to make the team better next season by trading him.
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Peel back the layers a little…..take away the hot start (24 pts in 25 games)…..what do his numbers look like?

The expectations are that he’s more than a 40pt player if he’s in the top 6. I can’t wait to hit the 60/80 game marks and see how he’s done.

I just don’t think it takes much of an imagination to see a trade where he’s going out as part of a package and a better player near term is coming back. Definitely not a rental trade I’d make though.
 
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Melkor said:
I'm more inclined to think the hot start was an anomaly and he's not a real 25-30 goal scorer. More like 15-20 goals and 45-50 points in his good normal year is what he is going to settle at. With his current cap hit and respectable advanced stats, he's exactly the player who could make the team better by getting traded as a centerpiece of the deal. The question is will the front office do it before it's time to sign him to a new contract and it would already be too late to pounce on his supposedly high market value right now.
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His finishing ability may have been, but his ability to create offense and chances is legit.

Among all NHL forwards with more than 600 mins TOI at 5v5, he’s 14th in Goals/60 and 6th in ixG/60. He’s on pace for 22 even strength goals this year (which hasn’t been luck driven at all), so 15-20 goals is likely closer to absolute floor going forward if you’re not giving him any PP time.

I think he could certainly be a centerpiece for a deal, but McMichael + 7mil in cap space (to resign Chychrun or add another piece in FA) seems more valuable than JT Miller for example.
 
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CapitalsCupReality said:
Peel back the layers a little…..take away the hot start (24 pts in 25 games)…..what do his numbers look like?

The expectations are that he’s more than a 40pt player if he’s in the top 6. I can’t wait to hit the 60/80 game marks and see how he’s done.

I just don’t think it takes much of an imagination to see a trade where he’s going out as part of a package and a better player near term is coming back. Definitely not a rental trade I’d make though.
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Agree, he hasn’t been the same. But his finishing ability has regressed too far the other way and he’s been off the 1st power play unit for a while. Still, only Protas and Dubois have more 5v5 points than him in the last 23 games. Only Protas, Dubois, and Wilson have more ixG.

I do think he could return a better player in a trade. I just don’t know if it would actually make the team better if you consider the potential difference in cap hit. I’ll take CMM and a top pairing D over a 9-10mil 1st line forward for example.
 
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Crazy stat: despite being 27th in goals last year, only 1 team had more goals overturned due to coaches challenge

Goals Lost via Challenge, 2023-24:
  • 10 – PIT
  • 9 – CAR, WSH
  • 8 – MIN, SEA
  • 7 – BUF, NJD
  • 6 – COL, FLA, MTL, NYR, OTT, TOR
  • 5 – ANA, BOS, CGY, EDM, NYI, TBL
  • 4 – CHI, DAL, SJS, VAN
  • 3 – ARI, CBJ, LAK, PHI
  • 2 – NSH, STL, VGK
  • 1 – DET, WPG
Feels like we've already hit 9+ this season, couldn't find data for this year though.

Carbs needs to get some refs/linesmen at practice to call out all the goaltender interference/offsides. Could come back to haunt them in the playoffs big time.
 
I just love how some people define an entire players career by their most recent hot or cold slump, as if nothing ever changes and the most recent past is exactly what the long term future is going to be.
 
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caps4cup said:
I think I’d go with:

Ovechkin-Strome-Wilson
Protas-Dubois-Leonard
xxx-McMichael-Frank
Duhaime-xxx-xxx

As a rough draft for the forwards next season. McMichael could obviously fit into the top 6 as well or slide over to 3LW.

From my estimates, without their UFA’s, RFA’s, and goalies, that would give them about $27mil in cap room with an assumed salary cap of $92.5mil. Assuming they have a 13th forward and 7th defensemen around league minimum, they should have around $25.2mil in space for 3 forwards, 1 defenseman, and 2 goalies.
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So if Chychrun and Thompson take up say — 13m of that. Then it’s 12.2m for 3F’s and a G

Chucky back at 3m? So 9.2m for 3F’s.

Resign Dowd at 3m (so 6.2m left).

Get 3LW for 4.5-5m, and a 4RW for 1-1.5m

Done!
 
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