Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[CapitalsCupReality]

The way the year is going, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't re-sign him, and I'm okay with that. There's a lot of underlying data to suggest that his current season is extremely unsustainable. If he's willing to consider a contract in line with his career averages, then we should pursue an extension. If he wants to get paid like 25 goal, 60 point defenseman (which is what he's on pace for), then we should let someone else make that mistake.

In GMCP/BM we trust, but I have to imagine they're looking at the same things that I am:

• Shooting percentage way above career average
• On-ice shooting percentage way above career average*
• On-ice save percentage way above career average
• Goals/points pace way above previous career highs
• The worst xGF% on the team amongst defenders

*This exact stat has dropped dramatically over the last several weeks for Connor McMichael and Dylan Strome. Not a coincidence.

So assuming the Caps believe in him, what is the top AAV you would pay?

Definitely seeing the contract year bump, but also the better situation bump IMO.

For me, it’s all about the latter.

Is that sustainable and can he stay healthy enough to give us at least 70-75 games a year on average on a long term deal?

 

[Silky mitts]

The way the year is going, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't re-sign him, and I'm okay with that. There's a lot of underlying data to suggest that his current season is extremely unsustainable. If he's willing to consider a contract in line with his career averages, then we should pursue an extension. If he wants to get paid like 25 goal, 60 point defenseman (which is what he's on pace for), then we should let someone else make that mistake.

In GMCP/BM we trust, but I have to imagine they're looking at the same things that I am:

• Shooting percentage way above career average
• On-ice shooting percentage way above career average*
• On-ice save percentage way above career average
• Goals/points pace way above previous career highs
• The worst xGF% on the team amongst defenders

*This exact stat has dropped dramatically over the last several weeks for Connor McMichael and Dylan Strome. Not a coincidence.

He's playing with much better players now, and there's a good chance the cap goes up more than expected and 100% it goes up more than any year since covid so it's not the year you want to be looking to sign a bunch of UFAs with $29M of cap room

 

[wickedwitch]

So assuming the Caps believe in him, what is the top AAV you would pay?

Definitely seeing the contract year bump, but also the better situation bump IMO.

For me, it’s all about the latter.

Is that sustainable and can he stay healthy enough to give us at least 70-75 games a year on average on a long term deal?

It depends on the length. I think the contract needs to be short or movable in case Hutson ends up being the better player. For 3 years, I'd go up to $9 million. Any longer, I wouldn't go higher than ~$7 million.

 

[Kazer]

So assuming the Caps believe in him, what is the top AAV you would pay?

Definitely seeing the contract year bump, but also the better situation bump IMO.

For me, it’s all about the latter.

Is that sustainable and can he stay healthy enough to give us at least 70-75 games a year on average on a long term deal?

I don't think the 'better situation' bump makes much sense. First of all, the underlying numbers shouldn't change because of a better situation (scoring should increase while underlying numbers stay largely the same due to more shot attempts and/or better quality chances). Second, regarding personnel Chychrun's had solid D partners (Chabot, Bernard-Docker and Hamonic) and Ottawa isn't short on offensive talent up front (Stutzle, Batherson, Tkachuk, Giroux, Norris, etc.). While Carlson is better than Chabot, I don't think there's enough difference there to 'explain' the jump.

To be clear, Chychrun's on-ice shooting percentage is higher than Cale Makar's (12.3 all situations vs 14.8 for Chychrun). Do we think that the Caps supporting cast is better than playing largely with MacKinnon and Rantanen, ignoring Makar's individual talent? Or do we think that Chychrun has benefitted heavily from what largely comes down to luck?

Circling back to your first question, if Chychrun hit the market last year, I'd expect him to sign for what Montour signed for, maybe with a slight upward adjustment for the cap going up quite a bit. Montour signed at 7,142,857 AAV (what an odd figure) long-term in Seattle. So given the cap, let's say 7.5 million with some wiggle room (I would go higher aav for a shorter term as wickedwitch said).

If he's in that range, I'm interested. If he wants 10+ or 11+ (which I think he could touch if he scores 25+ goals and 60+ points), then I would prefer to let someone else fall on that sword. Dahlin signed 8x11 after his 15 goal, 73 point campaign which is arguably in line with what Chychrun is on pace for when you adjust for more goals but less points.

Edit: To be very clear, Chychrun is a good player. I just don't want to overpay based on his 42 game heater.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I’d pay up to 8.5-9m for 8yrs. Easily. Hope it’s less, but?

26yrs ppl old (soon to be 27?). And we all assume he’s “peaked”? Maybe. But maybe not.

27-30(ish) are usually the golden years for D-men. 34 isn’t old (hello, JC74!) either.

So I don’t get the real risk, save injuries — which others have mentioned.

However, as I’ve said before …… they simply *CANNOT* makes moves based on fear.

Sign the man

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't think the 'better situation' bump makes much sense. First of all, the underlying numbers shouldn't change because of a better situation (scoring should increase while underlying numbers stay largely the same due to more shot attempts and/or better quality chances). Second, regarding personnel Chychrun's had solid D partners (Chabot, Bernard-Docker and Hamonic) and Ottawa isn't short on offensive talent up front (Stutzle, Batherson, Tkachuk, Giroux, Norris, etc.). While Carlson is better than Chabot, I don't think there's enough difference there to 'explain' the jump.

To be clear, Chychrun's on-ice shooting percentage is higher than Cale Makar's (12.3 all situations vs 14.8 for Chychrun). Do we think that the Caps supporting cast is better than playing largely with MacKinnon and Rantanen, ignoring Makar's individual talent? Or do we think that Chychrun has benefitted heavily from what largely comes down to luck?

Circling back to your first question, if Chychrun hit the market last year, I'd expect him to sign for what Montour signed for, maybe with a slight upward adjustment for the cap going up quite a bit. Montour signed at 7,142,857 AAV (what an odd figure) long-term in Seattle. So given the cap, let's say 7.5 million with some wiggle room (I would go higher aav for a shorter term as wickedwitch said).

If he's in that range, I'm interested. If he wants 10+ or 11+ (which I think he could touch if he scores 25+ goals and 60+ points), then I would prefer to let someone else fall on that sword. Dahlin signed 8x11 after his 15 goal, 73 point campaign which is arguably in line with what Chychrun is on pace for when you adjust for more goals but less points.

Edit: To be very clear, Chychrun is a good player. I just don't want to overpay based on his 42 game heater.

Not sure how you discount a better situation (I didn’t say better players)….just look at PLD and Strome. Better situation can be huge. It can be life changing as it appears to be with a third big acquisition.

I feel talks of potential 9-11 mil+ are crazy. Specifically because of the underlying analysis of his numbers and injury history. This isn’t a 23 yr old Dahlin.

I’d prefer to stay in the 7.5’ish area.

We’ll see.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

It depends on the length. I think the contract needs to be short or movable in case Hutson ends up being the better player.

I don't think they're similar players, though. If Hutson winds up breaking the door down in a year or two and being too good not to play, Sandin should be the guy they move off of to make room rather than Chychrun.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Not sure how you discount a better situation (I didn’t say better players)….just look at PLD and Strome. Better situation can be huge. It can be life changing as it appears to be with a third big acquisition.

I feel talks of potential 9-11 mil+ are crazy. Specifically because of the underlying analysis of his numbers and injury history. This isn’t a 23 yr old Dahlin.

I’d prefer to stay in the 7.5’ish area.

We’ll see.

I’d go up to 9. That’s it. Not my money, and Cap is going up quickly, to catch up from the “frozen pandemic years”.

Not at all worried about 9m.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don't think they're similar players, though. If Hutson winds up breaking the door down in a year or two and being too good not to play, Sandin should be the guy they move off of to make room rather than Chychrun.

Not meant for you, Dr JC74.

For others —

I am sorry, but worrying about a kid in colleges contract, when looking at JC6, is wild to me. And not in a good way.

Hutson will NOT get any “big” money for at least ….lets say 4-5 years (unless the want to do something earlier, by choice?).

Ovechkin 9.5m AND Carlson 8+m will be GONE. Even under the odd circumstance that either/both will still be playing? It won’t be for 18m combined.

Signing JC6 has literally ZERO to do with college kid Cole Hutson.

NADA

 

[wickedwitch]

I don't think they're similar players, though. If Hutson winds up breaking the door down in a year or two and being too good not to play, Sandin should be the guy they move off of to make room rather than Chychrun.

It's not that they are that similar, but they have the same weakness. Neither PKs and neither is strong defensively. So you can't have both, because 5 D-men need to PK regularly. And you want to be comfortable putting at least one of them out in a 1-goal game. (I guess they could regularly play 7 D-men with 11 forwards, but I'm not crazy about that.)

BTW, Sandin's underlying numbers this season are excellent. If those continue, he's the last player you move.

 

[Kazer]

Not meant for you, Dr JC74.

For others —

I am sorry, but worrying about a kid in colleges contract, when looking at JC6, is wild to me. And not in a good way.

Hutson will NOT get any “big” money for at least ….lets say 4-5 years (unless the want to do something earlier, by choice?).

Ovechkin 9.5m AND Carlson 8+m will be GONE. Even under the odd circumstance that either/both will still be playing? It won’t be for 18m combined.

Signing JC6 has literally ZERO to do with college kid Cole Hutson.

NADA

I wouldn't say zero, but I largely agree. It's also foolish to not sign someone long-term because Hutson MIGHT be good even in 3-4 years. Worst case scenario, you can trade Sandin or Chychrun or Fehervary to make room (and they're still ideally worth quite a bit).

I wanted to note, in response to your other post, that my concern isn't about age. Chychrun could improve, legitimately, to sustain his 24-25 season. I'm just pointing out that his 24-25 numbers are largely driven by luck.

When McMichael's oiSH% was 14-15+%, he was on pace for a PPG+ season. Now that it's down to 12.7%, he's on pace for a still very good 60-point season.

Finally - good point CapitalsCupReality about better 'situation' in general. I responded to that as 'better situation in terms of teammates'. The human factor (chemistry, fit, tight locker room) matters a great deal too.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's not that they are that similar, but they have the same weakness. Neither PKs and neither is strong defensively. So you can't have both, because 5 D-men need to PK regularly. And you want to be comfortable putting at least one of them out in a 1-goal game. (I guess they could regularly play 7 D-men with 11 forwards, but I'm not crazy about that.)

BTW, Sandin's underlying numbers this season are excellent. If those continue, he's the last player you move.

Which D pair gets sheltered the most? Legit question…I have no idea what the stats say.

 

[Ridley Simon]

It's not that they are that similar, but they have the same weakness. Neither PKs and neither is strong defensively. So you can't have both, because 5 D-men need to PK regularly. And you want to be comfortable putting at least one of them out in a 1-goal game. (I guess they could regularly play 7 D-men with 11 forwards, but I'm not crazy about that.)

BTW, Sandin's underlying numbers this season are excellent. If those continue, he's the last player you move.

Dude — JC6 is routinely out there w JC74 during the last minutes of the game. At least, in the dozens of games I have watched?

JC74, Roy, and others can also PK. So I’d wager that HCSC is balancing minutes. JC6’s game doesn’t seem to be “anti-PK”, but maybe I’m daft.

Also — you are already projecting that Cole Hutson won’t be able to kill penalties?? And won’t be strong defensively? LOL

Why? Isn’t he still a tad young to draw that negative conclusion?

 

[wickedwitch]

Which D pair gets sheltered the most? Legit question…I have no idea what the stats say.

Of the 6 regulars, Chychrun plays the least when the Caps are leading by 1: WSH 2425 D Score Deployment

Chychrun also plays against the weakest forwards from the opposing team: WSH 2425 D QoCT. (assuming the weakest forwards get the least ice time)

 

[wickedwitch]

JC74, Roy, and others can also PK. So I’d wager that HCSC is balancing minutes. JC6’s game doesn’t seem to be “anti-PK”, but maybe I’m daft.

Also — you are already projecting that Cole Hutson won’t be able to kill penalties?? And won’t be strong defensively? LOL

Why? Isn’t he still a tad young to draw that negative conclusion?

Neither currently PKs. Maybe they could do so successfully in the future. But I wouldn't assume that either.

I'm projecting Hutson to be decent but not super strong defensively. Obviously, I could be wrong. It's just a projection.

 

[um]

It depends on the length. I think the contract needs to be short or movable in case Hutson ends up being the better player. For 3 years, I'd go up to $9 million. Any longer, I wouldn't go higher than ~$7 million.

if you're only offering three years than he's probably gone.

I'd rather sign him long-term and look to move Sandin when the time comes.