Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

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I've been proposing trading Miro + Lapierre for everyone. It was a bit tongue in cheek, not very serious.

I do think you guys overrate Lapierre's trade value though. Miro at least is on track and improving every year. Lapierre is really far behind the curve.

No GM is considering Lapierre to be the equivalent of a first rounder in terms of trade value.
 
I've been proposing trading Miro + Lapierre for everyone. It was a bit tongue in cheek, not very serious.

I do think you guys overrate Lapierre's trade value though. Miro at least is on track and improving every year. Lapierre is really far behind the curve.

No GM is considering Lapierre to be the equivalent of a first rounder in terms of trade value.
I think that you're maybe understating the value of prospects that have graduated out of "prospect" and into "NHL young player". Despite his struggles this year, he still has 30 points in ~ a full season of NHL games, an NHL playoff series where he was one of the best players on the ice for the Caps (a low bar to be sure, but still not nothing), and an AHL championship run where he was the clear best player on the best team in the league. He's kind of right in that sweet spot of having enough of an NHL track record to be ready now but not long enough that you know what kind of player you're for sure getting.

I could very easily see a team that would be looking for more of a "retool" seeing Lapierre as a premium asset to get back -- one that could not only help their team next year but play NHL minutes for them (and their fans) this year. Vancouver, NYI, Nashville, Calgary, and Pittsburgh are all teams that have clearly expressed a preference for players like Lapierre.
 
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I think that you're maybe understating the value of prospects that have graduated out of "prospect" and into "NHL young player". Despite his struggles this year, he still has 30 points in ~ a full season of NHL games, an NHL playoff series where he was one of the best players on the ice for the Caps (a low bar to be sure, but still not nothing), and an AHL championship run where he was the clear best player on the best team in the league. He's kind of right in that sweet spot of having enough of an NHL track record to be ready now but not long enough that you know what kind of player you're for sure getting.

I could very easily see a team that would be looking for more of a "retool" seeing Lapierre as a premium asset to get back -- one that could not only help their team next year but play NHL minutes for them (and their fans) this year. Vancouver, NYI, Nashville, Calgary, and Pittsburgh are all teams that have clearly expressed a preference for players like Lapierre.
Similar to Mason McTavish, Lapierre would be a tempting 'buy low' candidate for another team. We were talking about PDO in the other thread. Individual on-ice shooting percentage is basically the equivalent of that for players. Most players will fall around 10-11%, which is right where Lappy's career average lands (10.7%). For this year, he's sitting at 7.1% (all situations), and he failed to score on all 18 of his own shot attempts (you would expect him to score on probably 11-12%).

It's fair to say that his game has dipped (averaging fewer shots per game; lower xGF%; the eye test), but it's being further compounded by bad luck.
 
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50% of first rounders bust.

More than that for late first rounders.

Lapierre is not currently playing in the NHL 5 years after being drafted. It’s rare for a forward to be in this position and still end up becoming a good player.

Why are you guys acting like the idea of Lapierre being a bust is far fetched and that I’m just being a hater? Busts happen. We move on.

I would love for Lapierre to prove me wrong. Serve up all the crow and I’ll happily eat it.
 
50% of first rounders bust.

More than that for late first rounders.

Lapierre is not currently playing in the NHL 5 years after being drafted. It’s rare for a forward to be in this position and still end up becoming a good player.

Why are you guys acting like the idea of Lapierre being a bust is far fetched and that I’m just being a hater? Busts happen. We move on.

I would love for Lapierre to prove me wrong. Serve up all the crow and I’ll happily eat it.
What % of Caps 1st round draft picks since Ovechkin?

You have completely devalued Lapierre is the issue I have. He showed last season he can play in this league. He’s having a rough patch is all IMO and he’s exempt, otherwise he’d be here still. Could be any number of off ice/personal things….humans have ups and downs.

If they choose to trade Lappy, I have no issue with him going the other way in a core acquisition, but not as a junk throw in as you appear to have him priced when you include him with the likes of Miro and a 1st or more…
 
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50% of first rounders bust.

More than that for late first rounders.

Lapierre is not currently playing in the NHL 5 years after being drafted. It’s rare for a forward to be in this position and still end up becoming a good player.

Why are you guys acting like the idea of Lapierre being a bust is far fetched and that I’m just being a hater? Busts happen. We move on.

I would love for Lapierre to prove me wrong. Serve up all the crow and I’ll happily eat it.
Busts usually follow a consistent pattern. Lapierre has bounced back and forth. This isn't Tyler Boucher we're talking about.

As I outlined in detail in another thread, Lapierre was better last year than Connor McMichael was in his comparable year. Does that mean Lappy cannot bust? Of course not, but it also means that we probably shouldn't assume that the last 34 games (NHL & AHL combined this year) are somehow more predictive than the prior 96 (NHL + NHL playoffs + AHL + AHL playoffs from last year).

It's disappointing that he has taken a step back in his development, but you've got too far to the other end of the spectrum. Assuming he's going to be great because of last year = too positive. Assuming he's a bust because of this year = too negative. He'll probably be good but not great.
 

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