Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2024-25 Summer Edition

[Silky mitts]

I think this should be it for Shepard. The goalie Chris Bourque ...

 

[895]

Said this before but I think they made a decision to fundamentally shift what they were looking for during those years. They had loads of top end talent with the big club and took guys that seemingly had lower ceilings but could provide solid organizational depth on cheap ELCs.

As for your time frame, Vrana could have been a home run pick in 2014 and looked like it if not for personal issues. Samsonov was widely considered one of the top prospects in the world at his position for years both leading up to and after his draft position so I don’t fault them there - teams are still betting on his talent level 10 years after he was drafted. Johansen and Alexeyev fit the bill of mobile puck moving defensemen who fit the way they like to play but have been underwhelming.

Starting in 2019 with CMM, seems like they went back to their old method of finding guys they think were undervalued with higher upside that maybe scared a few teams off. Also, go back and look at the 2019 draft class and tell me if there are any players better than him at all in the entire draft selected after 25. Bobby Brink, maybe? Shane Pinto, maybe? Maybe I’m missing someone but it looks like a brutal draft class as a whole. Lapierre seems like a great pick. They also got Fever and Pro in those drafts. 2021 seems meh but the last three classes are exciting.

I think the long stretch of getting guys like Green, Semin, Carlson, and Kuznetsov warped people into thinking that finding stars later in the draft was relatively straight forward and that finding guys like that was the norm and not the exception.

1)
I don't think it's fair to say it's gotten better recently.

Obviously you are going to be more excited about newer draft classes because they haven't started to stagnate yet. Everyone thinks their newest draft pick is gonna make it.

2) How is Lapierre a great pick? He's already d+4 and isn't guaranteed to make the roster. Plenty of players drafted after him have more GP and more points. He might end up better than those guys sure but he's absolutely not a great pick at this current point in time.

 

[Misery74]

1)
I don't think it's fair to say it's gotten better recently.

Obviously you are going to be more excited about newer draft classes because they haven't started to stagnate yet. Everyone thinks their newest draft pick is gonna make it.

2) How is Lapierre a great pick? He's already d+4 and isn't guaranteed to make the roster. Plenty of players drafted after him have more GP and more points. He might end up better than those guys sure but he's absolutely not a great pick at this current point in time.

He was one of our best players last year, and he just win the Calder MVP.

He is a lock for the lineup.

What the f*** are you talking about?

 

[qc14]

Obviously you are going to be more excited about newer draft classes because they haven't started to stagnate yet. Everyone thinks their newest draft pick is gonna make it.

2) How is Lapierre a great pick? He's already d+4 and isn't guaranteed to make the roster. Plenty of players drafted after him have more GP and more points. He might end up better than those guys sure but he's absolutely not a great pick at this current point in time.

Everyone thinks their newest draft pick is gonna make it because everyone dramatically overvalues the success rates of draft picks. It is not at all surprising that Johansen(28oa) and Alexeyev (31oa) have not become anything more than depth NHL players -- that's a pretty expected outcome out of two picks in that range. The same with McMichael and Lapierre -- solid NHL 3rd liners in their D+4 and D+5 is actually a pretty good outcome.

Look at the draft list from 2020 and count how many guys from Holloway at 14 to Faber at 45 that are definitively better than Lapierre? Guhle and Mercer were taken ahead of him and Peterka and Faber were taken after (and Faber wasn't even the first second-round defenseman taken by LAK that year!). Not an incredible home-run amazing pick but absolutely doing good with what you have at 22oa there.

As for their recent drafts while there overall success is probably too early to call, it's not too early to critique the process and I think it's very clear that they've shifted their philosophy quite a bit and consistently taken high upside swings in early rounds. Lapierre and Miro slipped in their DY because of huge injury concerns, Cristall and Hutson were analytical darlings that slipped because of their physical profiles, Parascek was a late bloomer and had insane DY production but scared scouts because he played Canadian HS in his D-1, Fehervary/Iorio/Muggli/Chesley are all of the same smooth-skating but low scoring defenseman that they have really excelled at developing but now are taking in the 2nd instead of the 1st. The only pick I would definitively say would still be made under the old philosophy was Leonard, and that's kind of an exception given 1) how good he is and 2) how insanely talented the 5-12 range of that class is.

I just feel like you can't have it both ways. Critique them all you want for going safe with Johansen/AA but then don't complain that high-risk swings like Lappy haven't paid off

 

[wickedwitch]

Lapierre is and was a very good pick. Two mediocre preseason games doesn't change that -- his good play versus the Rangers in the postseason is far more important. McMichael is also a solid pick and could turn into a great pick in the future. (Reminder: both had their development slowed by Covid, which is true for many of the players drafted those years.)

 

[wickedwitch]

Everyone thinks their newest draft pick is gonna make it because everyone dramatically overvalues the success rates of draft picks. It is not at all surprising that Johansen(28oa) and Alexeyev (31oa) have not become anything more than depth NHL players -- that's a pretty expected outcome out of two picks in that range. The same with McMichael and Lapierre -- solid NHL 3rd liners in their D+4 and D+5 is actually a pretty good outcome.

Look at the draft list from 2020 and count how many guys from Holloway at 14 to Faber at 45 that are definitively better than Lapierre? Guhle and Mercer were taken ahead of him and Peterka and Faber were taken after (and Faber wasn't even the first second-round defenseman taken by LAK that year!). Not an incredible home-run amazing pick but absolutely doing good with what you have at 22oa there.

As for their recent drafts while there overall success is probably too early to call, it's not too early to critique the process and I think it's very clear that they've shifted their philosophy quite a bit and consistently taken high upside swings in early rounds. Lapierre and Miro slipped in their DY because of huge injury concerns, Cristall and Hutson were analytical darlings that slipped because of their physical profiles, Parascek was a late bloomer and had insane DY production but scared scouts because he played Canadian HS in his D-1, Fehervary/Iorio/Muggli/Chesley are all of the same smooth-skating but low scoring defenseman that they have really excelled at developing but now are taking in the 2nd instead of the 1st. The only pick I would definitively say would still be made under the old philosophy was Leonard, and that's kind of an exception given 1) how good he is and 2) how insanely talented the 5-12 range of that class is.

I just feel like you can't have it both ways. Critique them all you want for going safe with Johansen/AA but then don't complain that high-risk swings like Lappy haven't paid off

I agree almost 100% except I'm not sure Muggli ends up as low-scoring. I think he'll be a 2-way defenseman.

 

[g00n]

 

[stephenball]

I was heavily in the “give him more time, let’s see what he has” camp, but I’ve seen enough by now. Bear is bad.

 

[Kazer]

1)
I don't think it's fair to say it's gotten better recently.

Obviously you are going to be more excited about newer draft classes because they haven't started to stagnate yet. Everyone thinks their newest draft pick is gonna make it.

2) How is Lapierre a great pick? He's already d+4 and isn't guaranteed to make the roster. Plenty of players drafted after him have more GP and more points. He might end up better than those guys sure but he's absolutely not a great pick at this current point in time.

We can argue whether the Caps drafting has been good or bad (or good enough). But it's preposterous to suggest that it hasn't improved. AA and LJ combine for 81 NHL games. McMichael alone has 155 already and nearly scored 20 goals last year. That alone is progression.

Lappy is a year younger than McMichael and has almost as many games as AA (and significantly more than LJ). Mirosnichenko was drafted in 2022 and already has more than double the number of games that LJ got. Clear improvement from 2019 - 2022 versus 2015 - 2018.

 

[qc14]

View attachment 909631

Most to gain: Vrana, Trineyev, McIlrath
Most to lose: Vrana, Cristall, Miro, Lappy, Protas, Milano, AA
Big thing to watch: how do the revamped top line and pair look?
Little thing to watch: Sgarbossa/Limoges/Sutter/Trineyev/McIlrath/Massie all seem to be in the second tier of potential call-ups where they're not prospects but not on the bubble. Can one of them separate themselves from the pack in the way McIlrath and Sgarbossa did last year?

 

[um]

I was heavily in the “give him more time, let’s see what he has” camp, but I’ve seen enough by now. Bear is bad.

I agree for now.

But the guy hasn't had regular playing time in so long maybe he just needs time to get his game back. Or it could be the opposite, too many injuries and other problems that it's impossible to regain his form.

Either way he should start in the AHL.

 

[hockeykicker]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1839007105732206928

 

[Corby78]

Man I’m hoping for a good game from Jake the snake. Really don’t want this to be the end for him

 

[g00n]

Jeez, how often does a player get a public "this is your last chance to make the team and maybe stay in the league" announcement.

 

[swansonsays]

Most to gain: Vrana, Trineyev, McIlrath
Most to lose: Vrana, Cristall, Miro, Lappy, Protas, Milano, AA
Big thing to watch: how do the revamped top line and pair look?
Little thing to watch: Sgarbossa/Limoges/Sutter/Trineyev/McIlrath/Massie all seem to be in the second tier of potential call-ups where they're not prospects but not on the bubble. Can one of them separate themselves from the pack in the way McIlrath and Sgarbossa did last year?

AHL contract, so he's not a call up guy.

 

[qc14]

AHL contract, so he's not a call up guy.

Ah completely missed that, glad he's getting a preseason game as a reward though as I thought he was great for Hershey during their run last year

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Daaaaamn Carbs…..


Vrana sticking out like a sore thumb in that bottom 6….

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

vranahive we're sooooooooo back

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

ovi - strome - mangiapane
mcmichael - pld - wilson
miro - protas - vrana
duhaime - dowd - milano

chychrun - carlson
aa - roy
fehervary - tvr

lindgren
thompson

2nd in the metro; lets do it

 

[Brian23]

ovi - strome - mangiapane
mcmichael - pld - wilson
miro - protas - vrana
duhaime - dowd - milano

chychrun - carlson
aa - roy
fehervary - tvr

lindgren
thompson

2nd in the metro; lets do it

AA over Sandin...?

McMichael at wing instead of Protas...?

 

[BiPolar Caps]

ovi - strome - mangiapane
mcmichael - pld - wilson
miro - protas - vrana
duhaime - dowd - milano

chychrun - carlson
aa - roy
fehervary - tvr

lindgren
thompson

2nd in the metro; lets do it

I prefer the forward lines to be:
Ovi - Strome - Mangiapane
Vrana - PLD - Wilson
Milano - McMichael - Protas
Duhaime - Dowd - Raddysh

Of the yutes, who's waiver exempt. Miro can get more time in Hershey. Is Lappy waiver exempt? If not he's one of the extra forwards (we should have two 13 and 14 along with a 7 defenseman).

Dowd's in his last year with the Caps, so they'll eventually be an opening for a centerman on the roster.

Okay finally located Puckpedia the somewhat Cap friendly replacement and it does show Lappiere to be waiver exempt. The forwards that are not waiver exempt are Sgarbossa, Limoges, Frank and Sutter.

 

[NoVaCapsFan]

I was heavily in the “give him more time, let’s see what he has” camp, but I’ve seen enough by now. Bear is bad.

No joke. Signing him was a Boo-Boo.

 

[zappa4ever]

No joke. Signing him was a Boo-Boo.

soooOO00oo...
send him off to Jellystone with a Pic-a-nic basket?

or

What about the Rangers?

 

[qc14]

I think Vrana has done enough to earn an NHL contract ... with another team.

Love him, but I just don't think it's the right fit

 

[Kazer]

I'll put myself on team Vrana, for now, which appears to be a dwindling camp. I agree that he hasn't stood out as much as I wanted to see (although he was very visible vs NJD despite playing with Sgarbossa and Limoges). While there are a ton of guys under consideration, I'm focused on (since it's a top 9 spot) Vrana vs Cristall vs Miro vs Milano.

Cristall has done the most, but I don't think he's done enough to offset the harsh CHL transfer rules. If he's up, he's up for the full year. They might 'cup of coffee' him, but I don't think he has had the dominant performance you need to make the team out of juniors for the full year.

Miro has also been good. I'd put him slightly above Vrana but behind Cristall in terms of game impact thus far. Miro is also young (still just 20) and has a lot to learn at the AHL level still (he mostly played on the 3rd line during the regular season). It would not hurt his development at all to go down for the year. In fact, if he were drafted out of the CHL, this would be the first year he could have gone to the AHL.

Vrana has had one good game and one bad game. Miro has the goal, but Vrana has the assist and was quite noticeable against an almost NHL lineup. To me, it's tight between the two of them. Vrana's good game was better than Miro's but Vrana's bad game was worse than Miro's okay game.

Milano has played just one preseason game with 0 points and was okay (better than Vrana vs Philly but much worse than Vrana vs NJD.

So on paper, Vrana hasn't earned a contract. But, if you send Cristall back to the WHL (rather than committing to 82 games at the NHL level) and send Miro to the AHL (where I believe he would benefit from development - top 6 minutes + PP with a ton of TOI), to me it comes down to Vrana vs Milano and I'd rather have Vrana helping anchor that 3rd line.

With up to three more games of sample size to come, my current lean is towards giving Vrana a contract and pushing Milano to 13F. Vrana has also historically been a much more productive player (both goals and points). I would love to see all four play against CBJ tomorrow.