Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[crazy8888]

Maybe not But Backstrom is going to have to accepted a limited role in that case me thinks.

Its difficult to have success with your $9m player having limited roles. You gotta have meaningful returns for that salary. Its scary to think that he was probably not even worth this salary before the surgery. It is what it is. Cant just force people to retire.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Its difficult to have success with your $9m player having limited roles. You gotta have meaningful returns for that salary. Its scary to think that he was probably not even worth this salary before the surgery. It is what it is. Cant just force people to retire.

Agreed but you don’t play a guy in your top six just because he has a high salary either.

 

[RedRocking]

Its difficult to have success with your $9m player having limited roles. You gotta have meaningful returns for that salary. Its scary to think that he was probably not even worth this salary before the surgery. It is what it is. Cant just force people to retire.

BMac sounded like a guy that has been trying to figure out “The Backstrom Problem” for two years, is out of moves, and is just sick of it.

We went through this whole song and dance last summer, when BMac had more leverage (Nick’s condition pre-surgery) to get him to retire. It didn’t work then, and now Nick is “pain free” and all psyched to go into a normal offseason and camp. So, BMac is exasperated and stuck with a problem he created - the only way out may be through, my dude.

Meanwhile, every chance Backy gets he’s smiling to cameras, and flexing:

 

[Hivemind]

All of this with Backstrom gives me more respect for the time that Peter Forsberg came back to the NHL for 2 games, felt like he couldn't play up to his standards, then re-retired. It was rather silly at the time, but considering the alternatives, props to the man for knowing his limits and not putting a team into a bind.

 

[Corby78]

Sports psychologist is different from a regular everyday therapist, usually. The focus is on removing obstacles to performance, though that can sometimes track back to deeper psychological baggage.

I guess add Mantha to the list of "why doesn't this guy flip the switch he's got a lot of talent" scoring forwards who liked to coast the perimeter and maybe had effort or commitment questions (Burky, Vrana).

My guess is these are sensitive types who don't respond well to hardass coaching styles and need something else to drive them, which can be tricky.

What is your "why", boys?


'He who has a why to live for can bear almost any how.'

Friedrich Nietzsche —

Yeah I agree, it seemed pretty clear that “play with more jam!” didn’t resonate with Mantha. My concern though is still “what will?” multiple coaches have failed to get the potential out of that guy. Some guys end up just not wanting it.

 

[g00n]

Yeah I agree, it seemed pretty clear that “play with more jam!” didn’t resonate with Mantha. My concern though is still “what will?” multiple coaches have failed to get the potential out of that guy. Some guys end up just not wanting it.

That was my take after watching the guy for enough time. You see this with some 7 footers in basketball, or 300+ lb OL freaks of nature in football. They're somehow naturally gifted or otherwise molded in a certain direction because of their physical tools, and then kind of coast on that.

I said Mantha seems to lack the fire in the belly. Maybe that's not true and he just doesn't manifest it like others do, but I doubt it. Everyone gets pissed or riled up from time to time...hell Mojo got a game misconduct and suspension at one point iirc...but Mantha strikes me as a guy who values other things a lot more than being a fierce competitor on the ice.

 

[g00n]

Agreed but you don’t play a guy in your top six just because he has a high salary either.

They didn't have a top 6. They had three middle 6 lines.

ES TOI/G was about the same for Kuzy, NB, and Strome. The RW1 position was not stable all year, and Ovie only had 22 even strength goals that weren't empty netters. There was no real separation among the top 3 lines.

You can't put NB on the checking/energy line, so what was Lavi supposed to do? Put NB on the 3rd line and cut ice time for him and 2 wingers, then roll the checking line more (which many here complained about) and give Kuzy more ice time by default when he's been terrible? Run Strome into the ground, like he's going to save the team? Wasn't Dowd injured for like 1/5 of the season, which limited options at the worst times as well?

This is why GMBM is narrowing focus to the top 6. They don't have a true top 6 anymore.

Ovie, Strome, and Wilson are legit top 6. After that, who?

Kuzy is trash and may want out.
Oshie is RW2 when healthy but he only plays 45-60 games a year now so that's half a RW2.
Mantha is an uninspiring middle 6 enigma that hasn't seized the opportunity like we'd hoped.
Sheary is misused in the top 6 and is a 3rd line wild card at best.
???

 

[Calicaps]

BMac sounded like a guy that has been trying to figure out “The Backstrom Problem” for two years, is out of moves, and is just sick of it.

We went through this whole song and dance last summer, when BMac had more leverage (Nick’s condition pre-surgery) to get him to retire. It didn’t work then, and now Nick is “pain free” and all psyched to go into a normal offseason and camp. So, BMac is exasperated and stuck with a problem he created - the only way out may be through, my dude.

Meanwhile, every chance Backy gets he’s smiling to cameras, and flexing:

View attachment 689241

I don't think it's this... though the money and Ovie's chase are definitely part of it. I suspect it's largely denial. He wants to play. He put himself through a pretty hellish procedure to get back. And it worked; he's pain free. But it also didn't, and he hasn't yet accepted that he can't move well enough to keep playing. He still believes he just needs more rehab.

So they need to let Nick try to do what he thinks he can do. And who knows, maybe there can be meaningful improvement, though Mac's obviously very doubtful. But I think Nick needs to go through the process before he'll be able to face reality. And he might not anyway.

As for a problem of Mac's own creation, didn't Ted declare 8 and 19 Caps for life after the Cup? GMBM may not have had much choice on this one. I don't get the sense that Ted meddles much but that emotional outburst probably tied Mac's hand and gave Nick a lot of leverage. Everyone knew the deal was a retroactive thing and would outlast 19's value, but it probably happened way sooner than expected.

 

[g00n]

I don't think it's this... though the money and Ovie's chase are definitely part of it. I suspect it's largely denial. He wants to play. He put himself through a pretty hellish procedure to get back. And it worked; he's pain free. But it also didn't, and he hasn't yet accepted that he can't move well enough to keep playing. He still believes he just needs more rehab.

So they need to let Nick try to do what he thinks he can do. And who knows, maybe there can be meaningful improvement, though Mac's obviously very doubtful. But I think Nick needs to go through the process before he'll be able to face reality. And he might not anyway.

As for a problem of Mac's own creation, didn't Ted declare 8 and 19 Caps for life after the Cup? GMBM may not have had much choice on this one. I don't get the sense that Ted meddles much but that emotional outburst probably tied Mac's hand and gave Nick a lot of leverage. Everyone knew the deal was a retroactive thing and would outlast 19's value, but it probably happened way sooner than expected.

I mean, they're a f***ing duo

 

[Marshall]

In a Sunday 32 thoughts, Caps talk at 10:15 in.

 

[Silky mitts]

In a Sunday 32 thoughts, Caps talk at 10:15 in.

Putting together Ovy’s supporting cast next season

 

[Ovi895]

Its difficult to have success with your $9m player having limited roles. You gotta have meaningful returns for that salary. Its scary to think that he was probably not even worth this salary before the surgery. It is what it is. Cant just force people to retire.

Most successful teams have 5-6 million useless cap if not more

Blues vs Bruins in 2019 featured Backes vs Steen both making around 6 million and being league min players

Tampa won 2 cups with 5 million dollar Tyler Johnson being shoehorned as a 4C

Colorado had Erik Johnson playing on the 3rd pairing for 6M last year and this year

Panthers doing their thing with Bobrovsky, Hornqvist and Yandle/his buyout

Minnesota has home ice in the playoffs with close to 15 million completely dead cap space.

Lest we forget we won the cup with Orpik being a 5.5 mil real gud pro like Backstrom is now. Backstorm is also better than Backes, Steen, Hornqvist, and arguably Tyler Johnson at their respective times

Sure its easier if that 9m is spent more effectively but teams have success with cap black holes right and left. You just avoid having a Mantha, broken down Oshie and TVR about to make 3 million to play a 3rd pairing role in addition to it

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Marshall]

For the record, I want no part of Andrew Brunette as Caps coach (mentioned in 32T) - I saw first hand how that guy can't adjust for boo.

 

[Langway]

Agreed on Brunette. I think it's Carbery's if he wants it. Didn't realize he was runner-up for the Bruins gig a year ago. He may have his choice of gigs depending on what else becomes available. For now it's just Washington, Columbus and Anaheim but you wonder what else opens up.

 

[Jags]

outside of some LTIRetirement shenanigans (which may be hard, since he’s currently pain free), not sure how things change.

You can't see pain on an X-ray, he's pretty much a pilot case with few comps ever, and no one is really incentivized to question anything all that intensely.

So as long as Backstrom gets on board, literally saying "Ow" during a physical should do it. That's prolly a bit of an oversimplification, but the bottom line is that if Backstrom accepts that it's over, satisfying the league rules for LTIR in his case should not be difficult.

 

[usiel]

You can't see pain on an X-ray, he's pretty much a pilot case with few comps ever, and no one is really incentivized to question anything all that intensely.

So as long as Backstrom gets on board, literally saying "Ow" during a physical should do it. That's prolly a bit of an oversimplification, but the bottom line is that if Backstrom accepts that it's over, satisfying the league rules for LTIR in his case should not be difficult.

The references to strength makes me think there are no pain issues just the aformentioned STR which effects agility/quickness/speed.

 

[HTFN]

The references to strength makes me think there are no pain issues just the aformentioned STR which effects agility/quickness/speed.

At that point this becomes very interesting and grey, then. An all-star caliber forward propelled to league replacement level. If he says "okay I've been lying a little there's still pain" how does that play out?

 

[usiel]

At that point this becomes very interesting and grey, then. An all-star caliber forward propelled to league replacement level. If he says "okay I've been lying a little there's still pain" how does that play out?

Oh I hear what you are saying. He's got money for his family on the table for a couple more years so yeah actions speak a bit more than words.

 

[Jags]

At that point this becomes very interesting and grey, then. An all-star caliber forward propelled to league replacement level. If he says "okay I've been lying a little there's still pain" how does that play out?

Or say @usiel is right and it's all about strength and how it affects his competitive mobility. Foundational deficiencies in his ability to move can compromise his ability to protect himself. And if he has to defend it to the league, he can just flat out say it doesn't feel right, something's off, I'm not jeopardizing my ability to play with my kids, I'm not going out there again until it's better...

Again, there's little precedent for any of this. Those who have tried anything like it have all been cautionary tales. He can honestly say that he wants to play but that it doesn't feel right. Shouldn't take much more than that.

It's like Peyton Manning's injury. No history of a QB having specifically that issue, no history of anyone coming back from it, and if one of the best ever tells you that it doesn't feel right when he throws, who can tell him otherwise or argue that the cause isn't medical?

I really don't think the league would push that hard. Just explain it and if anyone looks skeptical, say "Ow" a couple times.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Or say @usiel is right and it's all about strength and how it affects his competitive mobility. Foundational deficiencies in his ability to move can compromise his ability to protect himself. And if he has to defend it to the league, he can just flat out say it doesn't feel right, something's off, I'm not jeopardizing my ability to play with my kids, I'm not going out there again until it's better...

Again, there's little precedent for any of this. Those who have tried anything like it have all been cautionary tales. He can honestly say that he wants to play but that it doesn't feel right. Shouldn't take much more than that.

It's like Peyton Manning's injury. No history of a QB having specifically that issue, no history of anyone coming back from it, and if one of the best ever tells you that it doesn't feel right when he throws, who can tell him otherwise or argue that the cause isn't medical?

I really don't think the league would push that hard. Just explain it and if anyone looks skeptical, say "Ow" a couple times.

Most of this (all?) isn’t meant at you, like at all — make that clear first.

So…..It’s obviously going to be a pride thing. I mean, how can it not?

Our beloved Nick (and he is beloved, ONLY 34, and deserves everyone’s benefit of the doubt here, seriously), will give it everything he has this summer. To get right.

It’s not like 21pts on 39 choppy games is terrible. Far from it…45pts pace or so. It’s just terrible for Nick.

Let’s say he gets “better” and settles in as a 60pt player. Not much of a stretch from 45pts, is it?

If he’s a 60pt player (hell, even 52-55pt), then what? Continue to want to punt him to the corner?

It’s Nick f***ing Backstrom we are talking about here. Give the man a chance to show he knows his body and his abilities.

 

[Jags]

If he’s a 60pt player (hell, even 52-55pt), then what? Continue to want to punt him to the corner?

Maybe, yeah. And lemme preface this by saying that Nick is my favorite Cap ever. I loves me an elite player that's low-ego, all about the team, 100% effort, no drama. And this area's had some doozies... Monk and Green for sure. I'm not much of a baseball guy, but Ripken always struck me that way and probably could have bailed for greener pastures and more money a time or two.

Anyway, point production isn't really the thing for me when it comes to Nick. He played a complete game. We don't need him killing penalties anymore, but his D game was a huge part of the respect he generated around the league, and he had the right kind of sandpaper for a guy his size, too.

60-point, full-tilt Nick is absolutely welcome back. But one-dimensional 60-point Nick with no thump and a standout defensive liability? I want that guy to think about his kids and the realistic impact he'd have on his team both financially and on the ice and retire, pronto.

 

[trick9]

Most of this (all?) isn’t meant at you, like at all — make that clear first.

So…..It’s obviously going to be a pride thing. I mean, how can it not?

Our beloved Nick (and he is beloved, ONLY 34, and deserves everyone’s benefit of the doubt here, seriously), will give it everything he has this summer. To get right.

It’s not like 21pts on 39 choppy games is terrible. Far from it…45pts pace or so. It’s just terrible for Nick.

Let’s say he gets “better” and settles in as a 60pt player. Not much of a stretch from 45pts, is it?

If he’s a 60pt player (hell, even 52-55pt), then what? Continue to want to punt him to the corner?

It’s Nick f***ing Backstrom we are talking about here. Give the man a chance to show he knows his body and his abilities.

If you just look at the pure numbers, it's not the end of the world. If you look at the big picture... it's bad. He was bleeding goals against consistently and provided next to nothing even-strength. This season it wasn't even the case of Backstrom playing tough minutes to shelter other guys, he was getting favourable zone starts (~55% in the offensive-zone) and minutes too. So did Strome and Kuznetsov which led to Nic Dowd being run to the ground with 83% D-zone starts and brutal minutes.

I think he'll be a good PP soldier. I don't expect him to score much more than 20-25 ES points (on pace for 20 this season) but hopefully he can get 25-30 points on the PP to get to 45 points in total. Need to figure out who is going to carry the puck into the zone on the PP though with Johansson gone and Kuznetsov likely too. Ovechkin, Backstrom, Oshie or Carlson won't be the guy doing it, hopefully.

It's a tough situation. Obviously you hope he isn't going to become that anchor who just drags on to get his money but what he's doing is already special. It's hard to see him suddenly getting much better for next season.

At even-strength these aren't flattering stats:

Nicklas Backstrom:
Goals for / 60 minutes: 1.8
Goals against / 60 minutes: 4.2

Evgeny Kuznetsov:
Goals for / 60 minutes: 2.7
Goals against / 60 minutes: 3.7

Dylan Strome:
Goals for / 60 minutes: 3.5
Goals against / 60 minutes: 3.5

Nic Dowd:
Goals for / 60 minutes: 2.8
Goals against / 60 minutes: 2.4

Even Kuznetsov who was brutal didn't bleed as many goals against than Backstrom did.

And this isn't defending Kuznetsov by any means, he should be as good as gone.

 

[Calicaps]

Most successful teams have 5-6 million useless cap if not more

Blues vs Bruins in 2019 featured Backes vs Steen both making around 6 million and being league min players

Tampa won 2 cups with 5 million dollar Tyler Johnson being shoehorned as a 4C

Colorado had Erik Johnson playing on the 3rd pairing for 6M last year and this year

Panthers doing their thing with Bobrovsky, Hornqvist and Yandle/his buyout

Minnesota has home ice in the playoffs with close to 15 million completely dead cap space.

Lest we forget we won the cup with Orpik being a 5.5 mil real gud pro like Backstrom is now. Backstorm is also better than Backes, Steen, Hornqvist, and arguably Tyler Johnson at their respective times

Sure its easier if that 9m is spent more effectively but teams have success with cap black holes right and left. You just avoid having a Mantha, broken down Oshie and TVR about to make 3 million to play a 3rd pairing role in addition to it

you had me until the TVR comment. I don't have a problem with his deal at all, especially given that he and 74 are the only veterans left on the D corps rn. But I'll see your TVR and raise you Kuznetsov.

 

[RedRocking]

Or say @usiel is right and it's all about strength and how it affects his competitive mobility. Foundational deficiencies in his ability to move can compromise his ability to protect himself. And if he has to defend it to the league, he can just flat out say it doesn't feel right, something's off, I'm not jeopardizing my ability to play with my kids, I'm not going out there again until it's better...

Again, there's little precedent for any of this. Those who have tried anything like it have all been cautionary tales. He can honestly say that he wants to play but that it doesn't feel right. Shouldn't take much more than that.

It's like Peyton Manning's injury. No history of a QB having specifically that issue, no history of anyone coming back from it, and if one of the best ever tells you that it doesn't feel right when he throws, who can tell him otherwise or argue that the cause isn't medical?

I really don't think the league would push that hard. Just explain it and if anyone looks skeptical, say "Ow" a couple times.

Yea, but it’s a little problematic when he’s running around to every mic and camera he can find proclaiming what a success the procedure was, that he’s finally “pain free”, and how he’s so excited to train this offseason and start on time next fall. So, he’d have to change his tune quite a bit re pain. Maybe he tweaks something over the summer.

I hope (in reality) that doesn’t happen, but sure I guess they could come up with a cover story. But, besides the money, Nick clearly wants to keep playing for the love of the game, and probably to be there for 895.

If the team actually had an elite two-way 1C (or if Strome was half way decent defensively), maybe the team could figure this out and better shelter him. As it is, the smart teams are keying on him and attacking the middle ice whenever he’s out there. Heck, Shesterkin got an assist by flinging the puck at him, as Nick couldn’t accelerate to back check.

The best hope is that he really can improve the strength of his leg this summer, regain some of his defense, and be a 50+ pt guy.