Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[marcel snapshot]

Don't see Kuz waiving for the CBJ shitshow. But also Laine's got all the same issues. No gracias.

That Pascal LeHardass guy would bench Kuzy before he even got off the plane.

 

[twabby]

From the last GDT @Ridley Simon

Lumping them together isn’t accurate, IMO.

Wilson is one thing, Oshie is another. They both have started slowly (Oshie far moreso), and both could reverse the trajectory (Wilson for moreso).

I do agree of the two Wilson is more likely to turn it around, but without going into the aging curve discussion again Wilson is at the age where forwards tend to fall off hardest, and perhaps forwards of his ilk moreso than other forwards. Add to that he is overcoming a significant injury and I'm just not convinced he's going to return to anywhere near his 2017-2021 form. It's been a year and a half and ~50 games played since Wilson got injured and he hasn't reversed the downward trend in his play.

Most concerning are his defensive impacts. If he plays alongside some good two-way forwards I think he can maybe be fine in the top 6 as a third wheel with a good shot to finish off chances given to him by heavier lifters. But the impacts bear out that he is part of the problem with the top 6's poor defensive play and not that his poor on-ice numbers are solely because of playing alongside Kuznetsov and Ovechkin. I think Wilson would probably benefit most from playing alongside McMichael and away from both Ovechkin and Kuznetsov.

I realize the idea of Phillips on the top line sounds wild but in his short time (pun intended) he's stabilized lines he's been on. Protas and Mantha are other options to play RW opposite Ovechkin because they similarly provide defensive stability and smart two-way play.

I'm kind of thinking that all of 8, 92, and 43 need to be on separate lines and that we need to let go of that line as an idea. 2018 was a long time ago and that line hasn't been good in years. Indeed any two of them have better metrics apart than together.

 

[traparatus]

From the last GDT @Ridley Simon



I do agree of the two Wilson is more likely to turn it around, but without going into the aging curve discussion again Wilson is at the age where forwards tend to fall off hardest, and perhaps forwards of his ilk moreso than other forwards. Add to that he is overcoming a significant injury and I'm just not convinced he's going to return to anywhere near his 2017-2021 form. It's been a year and a half and ~50 games played since Wilson got injured and he hasn't reversed the downward trend in his play.

Most concerning are his defensive impacts. If he plays alongside some good two-way forwards I think he can maybe be fine in the top 6 as a third wheel with a good shot to finish off chances given to him by heavier lifters. But the impacts bear out that he is part of the problem with the top 6's poor defensive play and not that his poor on-ice numbers are solely because of playing alongside Kuznetsov and Ovechkin. I think Wilson would probably benefit most from playing alongside McMichael and away from both Ovechkin and Kuznetsov.

I realize the idea of Phillips on the top line sounds wild but in his short time (pun intended) he's stabilized lines he's been on. Protas and Mantha are other options to play RW opposite Ovechkin because they similarly provide defensive stability and smart two-way play.

I'm kind of thinking that all of 8, 92, and 43 need to be on separate lines and that we need to let go of that line as an idea. 2018 was a long time ago and that line hasn't been good in years. Indeed any two of them have better metrics apart than together.

They could put Ovechkin, Kuznetsov and Oshie all on the same line and just not play them much. Look for soft deployment opportunities.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/20/capitals-power-play-problems/

When asked about the factors contributing to Washington’s power play woes, Coach Spencer Carbery replied, “You got a half-hour?”



“We’re just working through it,” he added. “We’ve got a lot of things that we need to get better at, a lot of areas that we need to improve on, and a lot of it is from built-up habits. Things that have been done a certain way for so long are just challenging to break and challenging to correct. … It’s not good. It’s not a lack of effort. It’s not a lack of preparation. The work’s being put in, but we need some results.”


The list of issues with the power play is lengthy, and many of them blend together. The Capitals have struggled to win faceoffs, which often results in immediately needing to bring the puck out of their zone after it is cleared down the ice. Their offensive-zone entries also have been problematic, and when they do enter the zone, they have difficulty setting up their structure and creating scoring chances. If they lose control of the puck, the penalty killers regularly win the battle and send the puck out of the zone, starting the cycle over again.


“For me, it’s entries and puck recoveries,” said Carbery, who ran the power play as an assistant coach with the Toronto Maple Leafs but has handed that role to assistant Kirk Muller with Washington. “That’s where power plays start for me. Usually, when you’re struggling, you’re not able to enter and gain possession consistently enough. That’s when it can really spiral. You can talk all you want about what you’re doing: shots, deliveries, how you’re getting pucks to the net, your formation, all the different stuff. But it means absolutely nothing if you can’t enter the zone and set up with possession.”

 

[StrikingDistance]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/11/20/capitals-power-play-problems/

When asked about the factors contributing to Washington’s power play woes, Coach Spencer Carbery replied, “You got a half-hour?”



“We’re just working through it,” he added. “We’ve got a lot of things that we need to get better at, a lot of areas that we need to improve on, and a lot of it is from built-up habits. Things that have been done a certain way for so long are just challenging to break and challenging to correct. … It’s not good. It’s not a lack of effort. It’s not a lack of preparation. The work’s being put in, but we need some results.”


The list of issues with the power play is lengthy, and many of them blend together. The Capitals have struggled to win faceoffs, which often results in immediately needing to bring the puck out of their zone after it is cleared down the ice. Their offensive-zone entries also have been problematic, and when they do enter the zone, they have difficulty setting up their structure and creating scoring chances. If they lose control of the puck, the penalty killers regularly win the battle and send the puck out of the zone, starting the cycle over again.


“For me, it’s entries and puck recoveries,” said Carbery, who ran the power play as an assistant coach with the Toronto Maple Leafs but has handed that role to assistant Kirk Muller with Washington. “That’s where power plays start for me. Usually, when you’re struggling, you’re not able to enter and gain possession consistently enough. That’s when it can really spiral. You can talk all you want about what you’re doing: shots, deliveries, how you’re getting pucks to the net, your formation, all the different stuff. But it means absolutely nothing if you can’t enter the zone and set up with possession.”

Such an improvement over the last coach who was here: 'Working through some things in the room' broken record. bleh

 

[HTFN]

From the last GDT @Ridley Simon



I do agree of the two Wilson is more likely to turn it around, but without going into the aging curve discussion again Wilson is at the age where forwards tend to fall off hardest, and perhaps forwards of his ilk moreso than other forwards. Add to that he is overcoming a significant injury and I'm just not convinced he's going to return to anywhere near his 2017-2021 form. It's been a year and a half and ~50 games played since Wilson got injured and he hasn't reversed the downward trend in his play.

Most concerning are his defensive impacts. If he plays alongside some good two-way forwards I think he can maybe be fine in the top 6 as a third wheel with a good shot to finish off chances given to him by heavier lifters. But the impacts bear out that he is part of the problem with the top 6's poor defensive play and not that his poor on-ice numbers are solely because of playing alongside Kuznetsov and Ovechkin. I think Wilson would probably benefit most from playing alongside McMichael and away from both Ovechkin and Kuznetsov.

I realize the idea of Phillips on the top line sounds wild but in his short time (pun intended) he's stabilized lines he's been on. Protas and Mantha are other options to play RW opposite Ovechkin because they similarly provide defensive stability and smart two-way play.

I'm kind of thinking that all of 8, 92, and 43 need to be on separate lines and that we need to let go of that line as an idea. 2018 was a long time ago and that line hasn't been good in years. Indeed any two of them have better metrics apart than together.

Serious question: have you ever blown out anything in your knee?

There's getting healthy, and then there's getting the trust back in your body... They're not a neck and neck process either, and the reason it's been a year and a half is because he almost immediately took another month with a LBI... it takes time to get confidence back. It takes time to know what you can still do and what you might need to do different, and time to teach your body how to do that. That can result in split seconds that add up over a shift and may impact performance.

Yes, I know you hate talking about anything related to the mental side of the game, but this one can really matter in a way that I think you should be able to understand.

And yes, to get out in front of it, injury can obviously make permanent change to a career trajectory, but I think it's usually appropriate after major injury to get an approximate season's worth of games (especially one healthy offseason) after recovery before making any declarative statements about what lies ahead.

 

[PlushMinus]

I think 7 years at 6.5 million per is too much. He still has this season before it even kicks in. I can't imagine he's going to be an impact player for 8 whole years. I think best case scenario is half of that.

But it's not my money and there is something else that none of us here have: access to the Caps locker room. We simply do not know how he is regarded by the team and mgmt, ownership, etc. It probably played a pretty big role in him being offered that deal.

 

[Kuz]

I think 7 years at 6.5 million per is too much. He still has this season before it even kicks in. I can't imagine he's going to be an impact player for 8 whole years. I think best case scenario is half of that.

Yeah on ice it do not look like he is a 6,5 million player already now. With some decline aswell going forward it doesnt look like a good deal. Still some hope he can get better as he had a serious injury and it can take time for players to get back.

Still Caps didnt really need to rush to sign him and based on the level of his play now they could probably sign him for less as I dont believe other teams would have wanted to sign for 6,5 million with his current play. Especially when Caps went for 7 years they should have gotten him closer to 5 million mark that he has now. For 6,5 million he should have gotten 3-4 years extension.

Will be interesting to see how the extensions for CMM, Protas and Sandin will look. Will they bridge all 3 or will they try and sign long term. I believe all 3 can be steals if they sign long term based on their current point production. CMM and Protas are very effective based on their ice time and with more time on the ice when the old guys leave and some PP time for CMM they will probably be more expensive to lock up after a bridge deal.

 

[HTFN]

Yeah on ice it do not look like he is a 6,5 million player already now. With some decline aswell going forward it doesnt look like a good deal. Still some hope he can get better as he had a serious injury and it can take time for players to get back.

Still Caps didnt really need to rush to sign him and based on the level of his play now they could probably sign him for less as I dont believe other teams would have wanted to sign for 6,5 million with his current play. Especially when Caps went for 7 years they should have gotten him closer to 5 million mark that he has now. For 6,5 million he should have gotten 3-4 years extension.

Will be interesting to see how the extensions for CMM, Protas and Sandin will look. Will they bridge all 3 or will they try and sign long term. I believe all 3 can be steals if they sign long term based on their current point production. CMM and Protas are very effective based on their ice time and with more time on the ice when the old guys leave and some PP time for CMM they will probably be more expensive to lock up after a bridge deal.

Bridge them wherever possible. They have RFA control and Ovechkin will definitely not be around forever, the Caps have so many high impact salaries coming off in the next few years that there's virtually no reason not to bridge/arbitrate those contracts and then decide, on the end of the window, which players are worth a real contract. Signing up for "proactive" deals that could turn into anchors seems like a mistake when you can utilize RFA years aggressively and then make good on the players that you want to keep once the cap is, like... virtually endless. There's this stupid, stupid growing trend to just hit players with 8 years right out of their ELC but I'm not really sure that's the right move here.

There's going to be an offseason coming up where the Capitals may not even spend everything they could just because there aren't smart avenues to do it. So much money is coming off the books so quickly in the year to year sense that they won't be able to land enough UFA's to fill it without overspending or just being stupid, and if you have team control you don't need to be stupid.

Better to play it like a poker hand and wait for the right odds. I also think they like Wilson in the same vein as some of the older classics and wanted to pay him back for his development years. He may not be a cutthroat owner but I've felt like Leonsis rode a high after the Cup and decided to pay some dudes more than he had to, and Wilson is one of those guys. I kind of like that, if true, and it's arguably a selling point for UFA's if you can bring something to the team and room.

 

[marcel snapshot]

“We’ve got a lot of things that we need to get better at, a lot of areas that we need to improve on, and a lot of it is from built-up habits. Things that have been done a certain way for so long are just challenging to break and challenging to correct. … It’s not good.”


Yes, yes, yes. This is the way. And their PP looks exactly like they're having to do something they're not comfortable with at all - and that is a very good thing. Their PP had been stale for at least a couple of seasons now (and ironically, MoJo's, zone entries - which he is still effortlessly pulling off with the Wild now - masked just how bad the PP was for the last 2 seasons) and change is hard. But, as with other aspects of this team - it is sorely needed.

Hopefully, the team's performance gives Carberry more cred to get them to buy into additional things that need doing but that this core is just not habituated to. For a long time, their talent and chemistry carried them, and it can't anymore because the guys for whom that was true - 8, 77, and 74 - are too old and too limited in their mobility to make it work the way it used to.

 

[trick9]

Yes, yes, yes. This is the way. And their PP looks exactly like they're having to do something they're not comfortable with at all - and that is a very good thing. Their PP had been stale for at least a couple of seasons now (and ironically, MoJo's, zone entries - which he is still effortlessly pulling off with the Wild now - masked just how bad the PP was for the last 2 seasons) and change is hard. But, as with other aspects of this team - it is sorely needed.

Hopefully, the team's performance gives Carberry more cred to get them to buy into additional things that need doing but that this core is just not habituated to. For a long time, their talent and chemistry carried them, and it can't anymore because the guys for whom that was true - 8, 77, and 74 - are too old and too limited in their mobility to make it work the way it used to.

Yeah... re: bolded part.

Wild fans hated MoJo on the PP which has been garbage for them. He lost his spot on the PP1 while back.

 

[marcel snapshot]

Many Caps fans hated him on the PP too. For the same reasons, he was relentlessly trashed by Mike Milbury during the Bruins run to the finals a couple of seasons ago. "Butter soft" Milbury called him. Except that all his Bruins teammates appreciated him for what he could do (which includes a more effective front of the net game than he's ever given credit) - particularly his ability to get the puck through neutral swiftly and cleanly and into the zone with possession - rather than rake him for not playing with rugged physicality.

Nicky used to be the guy to enter the zone with possession, and when his body started to break down we went out and got Mojo back to do that. And obviously Kuzy could do it, when he feels like playing and his brain is turned. But now, 92 is the only guy on the PP who can sometimes skate the puck into the zone cleanly with possession - and he's not very consistent about it. Ovie, Carlson - nope. Oshie - no longer. Strome - I dunno, maybe sometimes. Sandin shows a little promise along these lines.

It's a highly valued and essential skill tool - and I'll be real interested to see how Carberry coaches around our deficiencies about it

 

[um]

I think 7 years at 6.5 million per is too much. He still has this season before it even kicks in. I can't imagine he's going to be an impact player for 8 whole years. I think best case scenario is half of that.

But it's not my money and there is something else that none of us here have: access to the Caps locker room. We simply do not know how he is regarded by the team and mgmt, ownership, etc. It probably played a pretty big role in him being offered that deal.

I still don't get the rush with resigning a player coming off a major injury. Wilson must have had some real fanboys in ownership or management.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[bacchist]

Flashback to that time Matthew Phillips entered the zone with possession and it led to a Milano goal that was called off because Wilson.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Not arguing with you because i do see your point and kind of agree with you. But on the other hand this seems exciting to me for the following reasons:

- He is still young and has tremendous skills and size
- GMBM keeps mentioning that they are on a hunt for a player of Laine's age
- He should not cost that much in a trade. Columbus would be negotiating from position of weakness given how the last few seasons went for him
- Columbus is not a very exciting destination, certainly not where most players prefer to sign. There were few big names in not so distant past and they all decided to leave once they had an opportunity. Obviously Johnny hockey is the one exception. But maybe he is just not that excited about playing there. Not like this would be the first time a change in scenery helps a player get their career back on track.
- He was an Ovi fan growing up. I assume he would be happy to play with one of the players he idolized growing up.
- His salary is high but its only for 3 years, and Caps can ask Jackets to retain some of it.
- He is Finnish. Perhaps its time for Caps to end the Finland embargo and turn a new page.

Anyway, somebody tell GMBM in board, lets make this happen.

How much would Laine not being the PP turret on the Caps hurt his production? He's not breaking into PP1 for the remainder of his contract, and almost 40% of his points over the last 2+ seasons have been on the PP.

He's not the guy. I'd much rather stay the course and see who pops up on the UFA market this July. Jake Guentzel, for instance, is 5th among LWs in ES points since the beginning of the 2021-22 season.

 

[crazy8888]

How much would Laine not being the PP turret on the Caps hurt his production? He's not breaking into PP1 for the remainder of his contract, and almost 40% of his points over the last 2+ seasons have been on the PP.

He's not the guy. I'd much rather stay the course and see who pops up on the UFA market this July. Jake Guentzel, for instance, is 5th among LWs in ES points since the beginning of the 2021-22 season.

Why cant he be in Oshie's spot? Also, i thought the discussion was focused on this season. Im not particularly interested in what next ex penguin team wants to sign when the season is over. Still have a lot of hockey left this season. And descent cap space to boot.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I still don't get the rush with resigning a player coming off a major injury. Wilson must have had some real fanboys in ownership or management.

“We like our team” comes to mind in times like this…..

I do think as Execs you can be blinded at times, and that fresh set of eyes is sometimes needed. Makes me wish they would hire an AGM from another organization…sprinkling in some freshness at that level.

I can’t believe many of us saw a 7 year deal coming at that cap hit.

 

[um]

How much would Laine not being the PP turret on the Caps hurt his production? He's not breaking into PP1 for the remainder of his contract, and almost 40% of his points over the last 2+ seasons have been on the PP.

He's not the guy. I'd much rather stay the course and see who pops up on the UFA market this July. Jake Guentzel, for instance, is 5th among LWs in ES points since the beginning of the 2021-22 season.

stealing former Pens has worked out well for us recently. It'd also be revenge for Eller.

“We like our team” comes to mind in times like this…..

I do think as Execs you can be blinded at times, and that fresh set of eyes is sometimes needed. Makes me wish they would hire an AGM from another organization…sprinkling in some freshness at that level.

I can’t believe many of us saw a 7 year deal coming.

It shouldn't take an outsider to know how power forwards age. This ownership has a loyalty problem. I mostly like it, but this one and the Backstrom one had clear red flags all over them.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

stealing former Pens has worked out well for us recently. It'd also be revenge for Eller.


It shouldn't take an outsider to know how power forwards age. This ownership has a loyalty problem. I mostly like it, but this one and the Backstrom one had clear red flags all over them.

I’d counter most good organization have a similar loyalty problem.

 

[traparatus]

How much would Laine not being the PP turret on the Caps hurt his production? He's not breaking into PP1 for the remainder of his contract, and almost 40% of his points over the last 2+ seasons have been on the PP.

He's not the guy. I'd much rather stay the course and see who pops up on the UFA market this July. Jake Guentzel, for instance, is 5th among LWs in ES points since the beginning of the 2021-22 season.

I agree with you, as far as the reality of the situation goes.

It is surreal to be talking about a player not being able to break into Caps power play. That's the 32nd ranked power play in the league, operating at 7% success rate and it wasn't exactly humming along for a couple seasons before this one. Bizarro world.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Why cant he be in Oshie's spot? Also, i thought the discussion was focused on this season. Im not particularly interested in what next ex penguin team wants to sign when the season is over. Still have a lot of hockey left this season. And descent cap space to boot.

You put him in Oshie's spot and you're neutering his strongest asset. Why not get someone who fits that role better?

 

[twabby]

I can’t believe many of us saw a 7 year deal coming at that cap hit.

I thought it'd be a higher cap hit to be honest. I was thinking a $50 million overall contract value.

 

[g00n]

MRI reveals brain activity behind fanaticism

Soccer fans exhibit different patterns of brain activation while watching a match that may trigger positive and negative emotions and behaviors, according to research being presented next week at the annual meeting of the Radiological Society of North America (RSNA). The researchers say the...

medicalxpress.com

Leaving this here, in case anyone was wondering why message boards are so quiet when a team wins and a shitfest when they lose.

 

[um]

MRI reveals brain activity behind fanaticism

Soccer fans exhibit different patterns of brain activation while watching a match that may trigger positive and negative emotions and behaviors, according to research being presented next week at the annual meeting of the Radiological Society of North America (RSNA). The researchers say the...

medicalxpress.com

Leaving this here, in case anyone was wondering why message boards are so quiet when a team wins and a shitfest when they lose.

View attachment 771309

I when science explains things we already know. Keep up the good work!