Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[DWGie26]

A lot better, and I like Jensen. Never been a hater, even during his sometime struggles

He is a better. And a lot bigger at 6’3 210. he had a bad year but with only 13 points but scored 30, 28, 25 last three years. That would make him second highest point getter on Dee for us. But he made 4M which is same as Jensen. Not a bad option but might be better out there.

 

[hb13xchamps]

All the Smith/Leonard chatter got me thinking. Maybe I’m just a dumb dumb, but with the way college sports are going, couldn’t we potentially see guys in the future sign NHL contracts and be “assigned” back to their schools if they aren’t ready? The amateurism of college sports is quickly going out the window with the expansion of NIL and the new transfer rules. College sports are basically becoming one year contracts until a bigger and better NIL deal presents itself to the player. It obviously wouldn’t pertain to Leonard, but wondering if we see something like that down the line eventually

 

[g00n]

All the Smith/Leonard chatter got me thinking. Maybe I’m just a dumb dumb, but with the way college sports are going, couldn’t we potentially see guys in the future sign NHL contracts and be “assigned” back to their schools if they aren’t ready? The amateurism of college sports is quickly going out the window with the expansion of NIL and the new transfer rules. College sports are basically becoming one year contracts until a bigger and better NIL deal presents itself to the player. It obviously wouldn’t pertain to Leonard, but wondering if we see something like that down the line eventually

It seems like the slippery slope that was part of the reason money was kept out of amateur/college sports in the first place.

If you pay college players then they're basically pros, so what's to stop pros from dropping down to the college level? Maybe not the top stars but guys good enough to tip the balance for any given team or program and really make things top-heavy and non-competitive.

There are probably ways to manage this via technicalities, I guess. I'm no expert on NIL.

 

[hb13xchamps]

It seems like the slippery slope that was part of the reason money was kept out of amateur/college sports in the first place.

If you pay college players then they're basically pros, so what's to stop pros from dropping down to the college level? Maybe not the top stars but guys good enough to tip the balance for any given team or program and really make things top-heavy and non-competitive.

There are probably ways to manage this via technicalities, I guess. I'm no expert on NIL.

Yeah there obviously would need to be some sort of stipulations with it. Some of the top analysts from different college sports all seem to think that college sports is headed to a contract structure of some sort. How they figure that out l, I don’t know. Will be super interesting how different college sports are in the next decade. It will change everything.

 

[DWGie26]

Yeah there obviously would need to be some sort of stipulations with it. Some of the top analysts from different college sports all seem to think that college sports is headed to a contract structure of some sort. How they figure that out l, I don’t know. Will be super interesting how different college sports are in the next decade. It will change everything.

It’s all logical. But colleges are government (for most part) since they are state schools. And college governing bodies are super political. it’s actually kind of disgusting. So it will take years and years to affect any of that change.

 

[Vivaldi]

Its surprising how despite playing in Toronto Marner has become incredibly underrated. Very similar to the Phil Kessel story arc (another soft choker quitter who would never win anything in the playoffs) except Marner is a much better player. His "terrible" playoff history is putting up 50 points in 57 playoff games while defensively anchoring his lines from the wing on a team that goes for it with Morgan Rielly and 5 scrubs every year. Reminiscent of early Ovechkin era caps who kept trying to contend with Mike Green and 5 scrubs while Ovi was crucified for their playoff failures. He's not without flaws but right now seems to be very undervalued for the player he is, as opposed to say Mantha being extremely overvalued in 2021 for what he functionally was.

If Marner is a available for something silly like 1st/Protas + Jensen + Dowd they should absolutely go for it, good chance they can flip him for about the same at the deadline after he gets Ovi 42 goals.

As for Tavares, stay the hell away. 11 million cap hit and he's half a step faster than Backstrom was at the beginning of this season

 

[VaCaps Fan]

Common sense!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Its surprising how despite playing in Toronto Marner has become incredibly underrated. Very similar to the Phil Kessel story arc (another soft choker quitter who would never win anything in the playoffs) except Marner is a much better player. His "terrible" playoff history is putting up 50 points in 57 playoff games while defensively anchoring his lines from the wing on a team that goes for it with Morgan Rielly and 5 scrubs every year. Reminiscent of early Ovechkin era caps who kept trying to contend with Mike Green and 5 scrubs while Ovi was crucified for their playoff failures. He's not without flaws but right now seems to be very undervalued for the player he is, as opposed to say Mantha being extremely overvalued in 2021 for what he functionally was.

If Marner is a available for something silly like 1st/Protas + Jensen + Dowd they should absolutely go for it, good chance they can flip him for about the same at the deadline after he gets Ovi 42 goals.

As for Tavares, stay the hell away. 11 million cap hit and he's half a step faster than Backstrom was at the beginning of this season

You can almost be assured he’s not going to be available for something silly…..

 

[Vivaldi]

You can almost be assured he’s not going to be available for something silly…..

If I’m Toronto, I ask for Fever, CMM, and a 1st and negotiate from there as needed.

He has an NMC, makes 11 million, plays a redundant position for a lot of teams and has questions about his playoff game. That's a lot of teams out of the running. Toronto might also be very tempted to move him for cap and patch up their other numerous holes. That D is so putrid for a contender Nick Jensen could actually be very desirable for them. We'd still have to offer some value, but it could be same type of discount as they gave with Kessel

I don't think the Capitals should be married to any of their young players other than Lapierre, Leonard and Miro at this point, though obviously don't discard them for the hell of it. They had Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov (he really was dynamite his first 6 years here), Green then Carlson anchoring the first half of the Ovi era and the guys they have now seem to be more in the Johansson/Burakovsky/Alzner tier. Even Leonard as good as he looks seems to project to a TJ Oshie level player. This complete lack of Ovechkin/Backstrom/Carlson level talent coming in will have to be addressed somehow. Fever, CMM, Protas, Sandin, Alexeyev should all be on the table for the right player(s)

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Necas is interesting because he played center growing up and evidently wants to play center in the NHL which is part of the reason he and Carolina are at odds. Could be a really interesting attempt at finding another top six center, though I think they should be focusing their efforts on top six wing. I’d argue they don’t a single top line winger on the team. Wilson is a hot and cold 2RW and Ovi is Ovi but he’s not a top line, play driving player any more.

 

[trick9]

Perhaps it's just me but Necas for Saros seem like a move that makes too much sense not to happen.

 

[kicksavedave]

This complete lack of Ovechkin/Backstrom/Carlson level talent coming in will have to be addressed somehow.

I think the only really viable way to get a player of that caliber is to draft one, in the Top 4-5 of the draft. Apart from very rare circumstances like Tavares and his pajamas, players like that who are established in the league just rarely ever become available. Trading for someone like that will take more than a few third liners and picks.

 

[Holtbyisms]

I think the only really viable way to get a player of that caliber is to draft one, in the Top 4-5 of the draft. Apart from very rare circumstances like Tavares and his pajamas, players like that who are established in the league just rarely ever become available. Trading for someone like that will take more than a few third liners and picks.

Unfortunately most dynasty's are built by sucking, long term. Seems like most people here don't want to hear that but it's how it works. We become a mid team before sucking and we're going to destroy our rebuild arc and remain a mid team for a long time.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Unfortunately most dynasty's are built by sucking, long term. Seems like most people here don't want to hear that but it's how it works. We become a mid team before sucking and we're going to destroy our rebuild arc and remain a mid team for a long time.

Long term? Disagree…..you gotta suck at the right time and hit home runs at the top of the draft, then be successful later in the draft, in trades, development, coaching hires, etc…

I mean….unless Buffalo is loading up for the biggest dynasty ever….….

 

[kicksavedave]

Long term? Disagree…..you gotta suck at the right time and hit home runs at the top of the draft, then be successful later in the draft, in trades, development, coaching hires, etc…

I mean….unless Buffalo is loading up for the biggest dynasty ever….….

Drafting high doesn't ensure success, but drafting around 14-20 every year makes the odds so much harder. I think GMBM has done pretty well with his last several 1st round picks. (CMM, Lappy, Miro and Lenny) but none of them figure to be franchise changing cornerstones like Ovi (1) and Backie(4) were.

It just takes so much luck though, to suck at the right time when a legit generational player is there (Ovi, Syd, McDavid, etc) and then to also win the f***ing lottery and get the right to draft him. And we also all know that one or even two players can't carry a team to a Cup. It also takes some luck to have all 18 guys plus the goalie all healthy and playing at their peak, to win.

I think this point being, this current run of trying to stay competitive, is really just resulting in staying mediocre.

 

[twabby]

Dallas on the other hand has built a core of Robertson, Hintz, Johnston, Heiskanen, Harley, and probably Stankoven as well. Only Heiskanen was a top pick. The rest are late first or second rounders and guys like Robertson/Stankoven were fallers because of superficial concerns like size and speed.

Brayden Point and Alex DeBrincat were available for the taking and teams just passed on them. Washington did really well last year to pounce on Cristall but they've had opportunities to draft well-known high level talents with these superficial deficiencies in late rounds and instead took a few duds.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Would we have been better off if we pulled a Black Hawks and bottomed out / fully tanked? They traded Kane and got Toews to injury list retire. Tanked hard and got lucky with the lottery and won Bedard and got the 2nd over all pick this season.

We can compare our teams alot. The Kane era was the same time as the Ovie era they seem in the best shape to have another run.

Atleast we didnt pull a penguins and keep doubling down on going all in.

 

[DWGie26]

There is a good amount of first line talent that will be available this year. Necas (who is more top 6). Ehlers. Reinhart. Marner. And with our cap space and assets it is a good year to go get one.

Some interesting trade assets would be a Dowd/Jensen combo. Best friends and getting two veteran pieces at low cost would be good for many teams. A second option would be Milano. He is young(ish) and cheap (1.9M). Could also be a valuable piece at that cap hit.

I think leafs will have a hard time moving Marner. Already over $10M and only one year left. Teams will have a hard time with that. And if Leafs hold out too long for value they could get nothing. Their biggest return is gaining Cap space.

 

[Calicaps]

The Caps have shifted their model to drafting for upside and it needs to 1. continue and 2. be given a chance to bear fruit. I rarely agree with @twabby on much, but the Dallas example is spot on (though calling size and speed “superficial” is a bit farther than I’m willing to go). Lappy, Miro, Cristall, and even Allen were all projected to be top 5-10 picks before falling. With continued patience (especially for the kids delayed by injury/illness) and proper development, their ceilings could be high.

That said, the other piece of the Stars formula is the very strong group of vets they have in their mix. Caps’ vet group is waning fast, so adding proven youngish but established players—and continuing to draft strategically—this year and next will be essential to the kids’ development and the trajectory of the team overall.

 

[Holtbyisms]

If people think throw away assets like Dowd and Jensen are going to net us the type of players to change our trajectory from mediocre, out in the first round every season to competitors I'm not so sure the valuation of talent is being done correctly here. That and adding a bunch of overpriced bad contract "top line" free agents is not the way to do this. All you'll do is price yourself out of signing any of your talented home grown players and remain a leftovers for dinner every night kind of team. This team needs to plug and play what homegrown talent they do have as they slowly fade into a lottery team for two-three seasons and pray we nail the lottery picks. Suddenly you add a cornerstone or two to a team that has great complementary players like Miro, Leonard, Cristal and you've got something. I'd rather suck for a few seasons than be heartbroken for the next 15.

 

[DWGie26]

If people think throw away assets like Dowd and Jensen are going to net us the type of players to change our trajectory from mediocre, out in the first round every season to competitors I'm not so sure the valuation of talent is being done correctly here. That and adding a bunch of overpriced bad contract "top line" free agents is not the way to do this. All you'll do is price yourself out of signing any of your talented home grown players and remain a leftovers for dinner every night kind of team. This team needs to plug and play what homegrown talent they do have as they slowly fade into a lottery team for two-three seasons and pray we nail the lottery picks. Suddenly you add a cornerstone or two to a team that has great complementary players like Miro, Leonard, Cristal and you've got something. I'd rather suck for a few seasons than be heartbroken for the next 15.

I don’t know about people. But yeah, I said it. But I’m not saying Dowd/Jensen or Milano are going to net us a superstar. But they are trade pieces that can fetch value. It’s more about freeing up spots with those players. I want a legit 2RD and if we go after that we need to move Jensen. If we sign Necas and want to play him at center then a center has to go and that can be Dowd.

I don’t want to suck just to have a chance at a high draft pick. f*** that! It doesn’t HAVE to be the way in the modern era of hockey.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I don’t know about people. But yeah, I said it. But I’m not saying Dowd/Jensen or Milano are going to net us a superstar. But they are trade pieces that can fetch value. It’s more about freeing up spots with those players. I want a legit 2RD and if we go after that we need to move Jensen. If we sign Necas and want to play him at center then a center has to go and that can be Dowd.

I don’t want to suck just to have a chance at a high draft pick. f*** that! It doesn’t HAVE to be the way in the modern era of hockey.

You have to play the long game. A Dowd and Jensen package could bring back a nice future asset. If we are not going to be winning the lottery we need to keep flipping these guys not in the long term plan for futures. And Like you stated before Jensen and Dowd are BFF and could make them worth more for chemistry they bring.
The last 2 seasons GMBM has been pretty good at this. Only a few he was not able to trade im guessing they had no value.

 

[Vivaldi]

I think the only really viable way to get a player of that caliber is to draft one, in the Top 4-5 of the draft. Apart from very rare circumstances like Tavares and his pajamas, players like that who are established in the league just rarely ever become available. Trading for someone like that will take more than a few third liners and picks.

Here's the thing, in 10 full years of GMing MacLellan has drafted, traded for, signed, claimed off waivers, poached from NCAA, smuggled into the country inside a horse carcass a grand total of ZERO forwards, defensemen or goalies of franchise or even perennial all star caliber. Z-E-R-O. That's 10 offseasons/seasons to work the phones and 70 draft picks to play with. That is a statistically impressive level of futility. Every single cornerstone player we have had from 2014 through 2024 was from McPhee. Even all star Tom Wilson was McPhee (who also got Filip Forsberg in the same draft. Yeah he immediately flushed him down the toilet but he's still a much better player than anyone BMac has brought in). Even Pittsburgh despite being anchored by their franchise players as much as we are still found Kessel and Guentzel in that time frame. The closest you have for BMac is TJ Oshie (great player but he has never cracked 60 points and cracked 35 goals once. Love him but he's very firmly a support player and has a Boone Jenner type career if he's your top dog), Dylan Strome (jury still out but he is firmly not in the Ovechkin/Backstrom/prime Kuznetsov echelon at this point even though he's getting better), and Matt Niskanen on defense (good #2 but no Green, Carlson). He didn't draft one single Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, or Wyatt Johnston (all stolen by one single team since he was GM). No Tage Thompson, Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, Vince Dunn (again same team even if half of them left). No trading for Eichel or Stone or signing Pietrangelo (all done by a single team basically run by McPhee lol). No dumpster dives or waiver claims of Verhaeghe or Forsling or Montour (again, single team that found several other elite players in the last couple years). You may think Tavares's pajamas are rare but I can point to virtually every team having gotten multiple players closer to the Ovechkin/Backstrom/Kuznetsov/Carlson echelon than the grand total of zero that have graced the caps roster for even a day since BMac took over. Even Jim Benning fell ass backwards into JT Miller and the idiot that was Jim Botteril still somehow got Tage Thompson (not counting the 1st overall Dahlin since anyone could have done that). We had a very good chance to trade up for Michkov (I really doubt Phoenix was married to picking Simashev with the 6th overall instead of the 8th overall and they were the top team in the league to stockpile freebee assets by far) but BMac stuck to his history and while we likely got a pretty good player, he would have to utterly explode in his development to be in the Ovechkin/Backstrom tier rather than the Oshie/Wilson one.

I don't know about you but if I see someone working for 10 years and they have a track record of ZERO of doing a certain thing I don't exactly expect them to suddenly be good at it. He's very firmly a round out a star roster by paying market/over market value for available players with pretty firm ceilings kind of guy, not a pick out a diamond in the rough kind of guy. The kind of return he put up for Mantha other orgs get Reinhart or prime Kessel. Thats just who he is and has been since the middle of Obama's second term. Which is why I would very much like for him to try and land Marner instead of plying the same trade that got him 0 in 10 years.

 

[Vivaldi]

Necas is interesting because he played center growing up and evidently wants to play center in the NHL which is part of the reason he and Carolina are at odds. Could be a really interesting attempt at finding another top six center, though I think they should be focusing their efforts on top six wing. I’d argue they don’t a single top line winger on the team. Wilson is a hot and cold 2RW and Ovi is Ovi but he’s not a top line, play driving player any more.

I don't see the benefit of going for Necas (like 2 first round picks worth of value, possibly more since in the division) over signing Chandler Stephenson for likely less money, assuming he's willing. Other than Necas's outlier 70 point season that he will get overpaid for Stephenson has been the better offensive player over the last few years before you even get to his defensive versatility. Stephenson still has 4-5 years of good hockey left as well even though he's older. With Marner you are at least getting a firmly 90 point player entering their prime for whom an 80 point pace is an outlier down season, not a 50 point guy for whom 70 points is an outlier up season. Given that Necas has no restrictions over going to any team and will probably get paid in the 7-8 million range most teams can swallow he is prime to get overpaid for in the trade market. Think Fiala+ level return since Fiala's destination was basically LA or bust

 

[Todd Lazarchick]

It's weird that many of the people who have been complaining about the GM for years are now talking as though he was simply being cheap or frugal or making meaningless moves.

That's not what GMBM has done, at all. He's gone for it pretty much each and every year and has had no cap space to work with as a result (and in some cases limited draft picks due to all the moves that were made).

I feel like some of these fans just got into that groove when McPhee was here and never let go of the mindset.

Imagine what might have happened if Lundqvist hadn't found that heart problem right before the season started. We were stuck with Vanacek and Samsonov for a few of the last window years for the Cup core. Do they blame GMBM for Hank's unforseen medical problems?

Going out and getting Kuemper was a bold move in response. He hasn't been great but it wasn't "frugal" or timid. Then when these big splash chances don't work out for various reasons he still gets blamed.

I don't get it. The internet seems like it's just a digital complaint box with porn to distract you while you wait in line.

Ok maybe I do get it.

He’s said for 3 years now they need to get younger, add speed, add scoring. And he’s yet to do so. That’s all we heard last off season. We heard it into the season. And absolutely nothing.

Cap space (and assets) are everything. Who would have guess Connor Brown would tear up his knee. And that Backstrom hip would give out. And Kuzy would stop caring. Thank Hank would have a heart problem. And Mantha would suck. I mean come on. Look around the league at all the other failed players and stupid moves by GM’s. Caps and GMBM have been great all things considered.

And then when GMBM stated he wanted to make changes at goalies he signed the best available and took a chance on a goalie who never had a one way contract. He wanted to upgrade top 6 but couldn’t trade Kuzy or Mantha because nobody wanted them and with no cap space he had to grab another reclamation project in Patches. Just like Strome, Milano, and even NAK.

The issue is you expect perfection. It doesn’t work that way in hockey. Gambles are risky. The other thing that doesn’t work is one-way deals. You need to have a partner that wants to dance. Moves that don’t happen doesn’t mean we weren’t interested. We just couldn’t find a deal that worked for us.

This year is different. We have cap space. Tradeable assets. Draft collateral. Even then, GMBM has to be careful with the contracts he signs because Leonard is a year out. Miro is right on doorstep. We have a bunch of players who are 1-3 years away with potential. So don’t expect him to sign 4-5 players. maybe 1 or 2. Plus maybe a hockey trade. I suspect that one may be an older vet on a one-year deal to give us flexibility in signings next year. We’ll see but it will be a different offseason from the last 5.

You clearly don’t know GMBM if you think this off-season will be any different than the last two.