Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

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I'm glad they're giving McMichael an opportunity, and I wish he had gotten this opportunity last year over Eller. But he's been kind of bad this year. Yeah he might be faster and perhaps a little more assertive, but the overall impacts are still lacking. The finishing quality is at a Carl Hagelin level, he's not a good playmaker, and he hasn't been good defensively. Maybe he'll get better with another year of experience, but IMO he should be seen as a 3C entering next year barring a big improvement the second half of this season.

Either way they are at least more informed about his capabilities and can approach this offseason with him not being a big question mark.
 
I'm glad they're giving McMichael an opportunity, and I wish he had gotten this opportunity last year over Eller. But he's been kind of bad this year. Yeah he might be faster and perhaps a little more assertive, but the overall impacts are still lacking. The finishing quality is at a Carl Hagelin level, he's not a good playmaker, and he hasn't been good defensively. Maybe he'll get better with another year of experience, but IMO he should be seen as a 3C entering next year barring a big improvement the second half of this season.

Either way they are at least more informed about his capabilities and can approach this offseason with him not being a big question mark.
He’s a brutal finisher, sometimes it seems like he’s scared to use his shot.
 
He’s a brutal finisher, sometimes it seems like he’s scared to use his shot.

Yeah I don't watch the games but I have watched some highlights and his...release...takes...forever. No deception at all either. Goalies and D can really key in and turn dangerous seeming opportunities into easy saves/blocks.

Eventually teams catch on and can cheat toward the pass as well. Without having the shot threat it's easy to defend. He needs to hire whoever Jack Hughes used to improve his shot because as a rookie Hughes was a brutal finisher in many of the same ways McMichael is, and now Hughes is a higher end finisher.
 
Protas and CMM could both do with about a 1000 practice shots a day in the next offseason to work on release and accuracy.

Easy to see why CMM has had trouble solidifying his place in the lineup previously. He’s just not physically gifted in any way (as compared to Protas)

He’s not bringing much, and for a goal-scoring center, his shot is lacking and at times his skating is still an issue. At least we are just kinda average and they can afford to throw him out there to sink or swim, but he’s barely treading water recently, worse if you believe the advanced metrics.

Protas has the physical attributes that make up for a lot, so he got in sooner and he’s having more success.
 
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Can you run those for say, the last 5 weeks?

No. GAR/xGAR are regression stats that build on the entire season's worth of data for the entire league and Evolving Hockey doesn't let you filter by date because they'd have to re-run the regression for a given date range for each user's request.
 
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No. GAR/xGAR are regression stats that build on the entire season's worth of data for the entire league and Evolving Hockey doesn't let you filter by date because they'd have to re-run the regression for a given date range for each user's request.

Daaaaaamn!
 
Yeah I don't watch the games but I have watched some highlights and his...release...takes...forever. No deception at all either. Goalies and D can really key in and turn dangerous seeming opportunities into easy saves/blocks.

Eventually teams catch on and can cheat toward the pass as well. Without having the shot threat it's easy to defend. He needs to hire whoever Jack Hughes used to improve his shot because as a rookie Hughes was a brutal finisher in many of the same ways McMichael is, and now Hughes is a higher end finisher.
It’s not just that his shot isn’t that great but he’s very guilty of passing up prime scoring chances to make high risk low reward passes.

Not everyone is gonna be a sniper, but you gotta know putting pucks on net is a good play. The puck may squeak in, there’s a rebound, off the defenders ass, etc.

You're right, he could use the Hughes treatment.
 
Protas and CMM could both do with about a 1000 practice shots a day in the next offseason to work on release and accuracy.

Easy to see why CMM has had trouble solidifying his place in the lineup previously. He’s just not physically gifted in any way (as compared to Protas)

He’s not bringing much, and for a goal-scoring center, his shot is lacking and at times his skating is still an issue. At least we are just kinda average and they can afford to throw him out there to sink or swim, but he’s barely treading water recently, worse if you believe the advanced metrics.

Protas has the physical attributes that make up for a lot, so he got in sooner and he’s having more success.
Protas at least plays like a playmaker and has the passing and vision to back it up. McMichael finds himself in scoring spots a lot, so he really needs to improve his shot.

Both have middle 6 potential, which is a good for a late 1st and a 3rd.
 
SMH, posters on this board comparing Protas with Tage and CMM with Hughes.
Thompson at 23 years old had 14 points in 38 games, Protas 18 in 43, both are big guys learning to play their skilled games at the next level and your problem is?

Like, people aren’t expecting it as a given and every post I’ve seen about it (or made personally) is loaded with caveats about adding one more dimension. The guy’s also been good and doesn’t look like he’s playing above his head (or even his eventual best) and it’s fair to ask what that might be….

People have also said Brian Boyle, it’s a range of potentials.
 
Quick GAR/xGAR check-in at the halfway point of the season:

View attachment 807458

View attachment 807459

No significant changes since a month or so ago. I can't for the life of me understand why TVR is getting healthy scratched over Edmundson and Bear.


Imagine if our two best players were actually playing better than the guy who was so bad he had to retire in mid season. IOW, thats a lot of salary to be dead last on the team, Ovi and Kuzy.
 
Imagine if our two best players were actually playing better than the guy who was so bad he had to retire in mid season. IOW, thats a lot of salary to be dead last on the team, Ovi and Kuzy.
GAR isn't pro rated by ice time, it aggregates. So Nicky's numbers haven't continued to expand since he hung up the skates. He got to that roughly -2GAR figure in just 8 games, where-as Ovechkin and Kuznetsov have played 41 and 40 games respectively. Their figures are still awful, don't get me wrong, but they aren't nearly as bad as Nicky's were on a per-game rate.
 
Protas doesn't play anything like Tage. The only thing they have in common is a big frame. Protas is much more of Zemgus Girgensons with an extra few inches.
I don’t think that’s what I’m saying, though.

It’s development path for bigger players with varying skill levels. If Protas were capping out it would probably look like it but he flashes tempting extras, like Thompson. Both aren’t just big guys, they’re big guys who mostly play like they’re 6’2” stylistically.

Again, broad strokes example for this specific point but both are more Lemieux than Lindros when it comes to how they use their size. Thompson took a big step and put his flashes together at 24 but was no more or less exceptional than Protas at 23 by the boxcar stats, really.

The one and only comparison is that because he shows flashes of being more, he still has room to take a big step forward in this third NHL year (usually when you’d kind of expect it) like the guy who just did it. Isn’t about how they play, it’s about how they execute what they want to do against competition.
 
I don’t think that’s what I’m saying, though.

It’s development path for bigger players with varying skill levels. If Protas were capping out it would probably look like it but he flashes tempting extras, like Thompson. Both aren’t just big guys, they’re big guys who mostly play like they’re 6’2” stylistically.

Again, broad strokes example for this specific point but both are more Lemieux than Lindros when it comes to how they use their size. Thompson took a big step and put his flashes together at 24 but was no more or less exceptional than Protas at 23 by the boxcar stats, really.

The one and only comparison is that because he shows flashes of being more, he still has room to take a big step forward in this third NHL year (usually when you’d kind of expect it) like the guy who just did it. Isn’t about how they play, it’s about how they execute what they want to do against competition.
This is a lot of wishful thinking, mostly.

There's a reason Tage Thompson was a first round pick. The tools were all there, it was just a question if he could put it all together, fill out his frame, and round-out his game away from the puck. Thompson had enough to show scouts to warrant the attention, beyond just his size.

Everyone knew he had a powerful shot with a quick release, and there's a bunch of goals that essentially look like this one from early in his career:


But he also had filthy mitts, and was capable of doing stuff like this before he broke out:


Protas simply hasn't shown anything that can make us think he has that type of top-end potential. That doesn't mean he's a bad player. He's very useful, and has potential to round out his offensive game more if he can develop his skill set around the net. He can absolutely be a complimentary top six piece that is capable of carrying and distributing the puck, not just parking the bus in front of the crease. But he just hasn't shown any indication that he's going to be able to command the ice the way that Tage Thompson can.

I'll put it this way - if he's playing in the top six, do you ever expect Aleksai Protas to be the best player on his line?
 
No significant changes since a month or so ago. I can't for the life of me understand why TVR is getting healthy scratched over Edmundson and Bear.
It boggles my mind as well. TVR is - imo - significantly better. He's a 3rd pair lock on most teams who is capable of playing top 4 if needed.

Bear and Edmundson are 7-8 guys. I still don't understand why they signed Bear.
 
SMH, posters on this board comparing Protas with Tage and CMM with Hughes.
Don’t be so simple. Seriously.

I (ME) compared Protas scoring to Tage Thompson’s at their age 23 season. Same age to same age. That’s it. NEVER did anyone say Protas would equal Thompson’s numbers going forward.

And no one has ever compared CMcM to Hughes.

Keep being a harpy for these negative comments. It’s obv more fun for you than anything else.
 
This is a lot of wishful thinking, mostly.

There's a reason Tage Thompson was a first round pick. The tools were all there, it was just a question if he could put it all together, fill out his frame, and round-out his game away from the puck. Thompson had enough to show scouts to warrant the attention, beyond just his size.

Everyone knew he had a powerful shot with a quick release, and there's a bunch of goals that essentially look like this one from early in his career:


But he also had filthy mitts, and was capable of doing stuff like this before he broke out:


Protas simply hasn't shown anything that can make us think he has that type of top-end potential. That doesn't mean he's a bad player. He's very useful, and has potential to round out his offensive game more if he can develop his skill set around the net. He can absolutely be a complimentary top six piece that is capable of carrying and distributing the puck, not just parking the bus in front of the crease. But he just hasn't shown any indication that he's going to be able to command the ice the way that Tage Thompson can.

I'll put it this way - if he's playing in the top six, do you ever expect Aleksai Protas to be the best player on his line?

Damn, it's like you didn't read anything about how I said it's not about the player as a comparable and more about the development arc for a recent big man who plays to his skill instead of his size and has tools. The fact that they're virtually equal in their 23 year old season is nothing to sniff at when it comes to talking about development, regardless of who has more top end skill, which was the whole f***ing point.

Like, I thought I already spelled this out in the last post. Also, if I understand it right Tage Thompson (born October) was one of the oldest eligible prospects, so a handful of weeks and maybe he's another low-round tools project. I think it's interesting to ask if Protas might have been a first round pick if his draft year was his 80 in 58 season, though admittedly he's much farther from the cutoff as a January birth, since he looked well beyond 3rd round caliber.

As for the bold it's entirely possible, especially judging by recent top 6 Caps and their defensive impacts. You see many players better on the charts right now as it stands? What kind of hypothetical top 6 are we talking about here because if you stuck Protas in the top 6 right now with Ovechkin and Oshie he'd probably be the best player on the line, the line would just suck.

Do you think he looks overwhelmed or at the brink of his ability right now? If he has another gear to reach, are you confident predicting where it ends?

Don’t be so simple. Seriously.

I (ME) compared Protas scoring to Tage Thompson’s at their age 23 season. Same age to same age. That’s it. NEVER did anyone say Protas would equal Thompson’s numbers going forward.

And no one has ever compared CMcM to Hughes.

Keep being a harpy for these negative comments. It’s obv more fun for you than anything else.
Lol, one person one time said they should send him to whoever fixed Hughes' shot and now he's a direct comparable... this shit is getting stupid.

It's like people are incapable of parsing out any nuance and demand one-to-one player comparables right now to have this conversation, and to drag on one of the brighter points of the season and future to boot.
 
MoneyPuck odds:

Playoffs:

PIT - 58.6%
NJD - 30.5%
NYI - 22.9%
BUF - 9.1%
OTT - 4.0%
WSH - 4.0%
CBJ - 0% :laugh:


1st overall pick:

SJS - 19.0%
CHI - 15.6%
ANA - 14.0%
CBJ - 9.9%
MTL - 6.0%
WSH - 5.2%
OTT - 5.2%


 
Don’t be so simple. Seriously.

I (ME) compared Protas scoring to Tage Thompson’s at their age 23 season. Same age to same age. That’s it. NEVER did anyone say Protas would equal Thompson’s numbers going forward.

And no one has ever compared CMcM to Hughes.

Keep being a harpy for these negative comments. It’s obv more fun for you than anything else.
Didn’t say you; I said posters. See below from Twabby.

Without having the shot threat it's easy to defend. He needs to hire whoever Jack Hughes used to improve his shot because as a rookie Hughes was a brutal finisher in many of the same ways McMichael is, and now Hughes is a higher end finisher.
 
Didn’t say you; I said posters. See below from Twabby.

Without having the shot threat it's easy to defend. He needs to hire whoever Jack Hughes used to improve his shot because as a rookie Hughes was a brutal finisher in many of the same ways McMichael is, and now Hughes is a higher end finisher.

1705929906534.gif
 
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Sorry for offending everyone’s sensibilities. My whole point, which everyone seems to have conveniently overlooked, is that it’s fine to speculate about a player’s ceiling. But please don’t carelessly toss out names like Tage and Hughes saying if only our guys had their shot and development arc.
 
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