Brian23
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Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!
- Thread starter AlexModvechkin8
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Yea. Please don’t Wizards this, Capitals
Misery74
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We need to embrace the fact that we will be bad for a bit.
We shouldn’t be moving any picks or prospects, but certainly not multiple.
For an aging vet? 100% agree. For a player like Elias Pettersson? Disagree. He’s a 25 year old 1C who just put up 100 points and is a PPG player over the course of his career. None of the assets I listed have a realistic chance of being the player that EP is.
Misery74
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EP is great, no doubt. Our first this year, even at 8, should get us a fabulous prospect.
I just think we need to ride the next two years out, then reassess.
Calicaps
NFA
Well, our all-time franchise player doesn't want that. So if that's the path, prepare to hear that Ovie wants to be traded and to see him reach 895 in another sweater. They will do whatever they can to keep him happy and in DC. If that means trading a top 10 pick, they'll do it.
Misery74
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I’m sure you are probably right. Our all time franchise player needs to look at the reality of the situation. We are being dragged by all time player number two.
If Ovi was so concerned about being competitive, he and Backstrom should have taken team friendly deals. Look at what Bergeron makes.
Check out this post by @NobodyBeatsTheWiz
There are two players I’d definitely take over EP and that’s Rantanen and McAvoy then there are some solid players but none that’d I’d trade straight up for EP. There’s also a ton of meh and garbage. 8OA should be a good player but it’s still a risk. EP is a stud just entering his prime. Well worth pointing up for unless they don’t want to be competitive for a few years.
Post in thread '2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread'
2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread
Pettersson is an elite talent that is cost controlled and still RFA after his deal. He passes the eye test and is also loved by the advanced stats community. Easily one of my favorite players to watch. If he was available, I think you have to swing for the fences and get him. Having EP and Strome as your top centers in their mid 20's drastically alters the team's future outlook.
Misery74
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Why would the Canucks trade him though? All the reasons you point to are reasons he won’t be traded.
Langway
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They haven't really tried selling it so it's more of a resigned cop-out. Give him a reasonable path with patience paying off in time and do we think he wouldn't buy in? Do we really think he's going to ask out now? All they need to do is make sure they're close to being a bubble team and, more than anything, come with a comprehensive plan. That can be done in ways that don't involve trading off future upside just so that they can still likely be pretty average. Would three years of generic bubble team play rinsed and repeated be preferable to stepping back and trying to progressively build something over a longer period? The question should be less how to remain a bubble team (one likely up against it again in the first round) than how to close the gap on CAR/NJD/NYR.
What's the worst player that would be acceptable trading the 8th pick for? The EP references are pure pipe dream. Same with Rantanen & McAvoy. Would you move it for Nylander (a year out from UFA and due a raise)? Cirelli? DeBrincat? Most anyone older doesn't seem worthwhile. All of these trades taking on salary but they'll also need to dump some. They can go over the cap in the off-season but it's not just as easy as cashing in the pick for whatever. Given what's on the books and likely to remain I'm not much of a fan of just trying to essentially buy their way back in. For most aging teams that tends to backfire.
I agree that he probably isn't available, but people hope the various rumors and drama from Vancouver will lead to some of their top players wanting out. Winnipeg and Toronto are more likely to see key pieces move out (obviously my opinion not fact).
Misery74
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Agree with this. Ovechkin is in no position to make demands. His salary, and Backstroms salary kind of created the problem.
Calicaps
NFA
For Ovie? Absolutely. Three years takes him to 41. That's likely the end. So yes, I definitely think that if they ask the captain to "be patient" with something that "will pay off in time," he'll ask out. He won't like to leave, but he's said he's not gonna stay for a rebuild. He'd rather have a puncher's chance than none at all. But here you are again declaring anything good impossible in the short term. No one said a retool would be easy. But Mac's been clear that they're gonna attempt it anyway--and do so aggressively. And I'd trade for Nylander, but a year out from UFA makes him cheaper than a guy like EP.
Misery74
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I do agree. People seem desperate to get out of Winnipeg. I wonder if they are on Kuzy No Trade? They can’t really attract free agents, so trades might be how they have to improve.
Calicaps
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Shitting on 8 and 19 for getting paid is really something. They deserve their money.
Misery74
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I am not shitting on them. They got what they got. But they have been very well paid for years. And Backstrom especially got paid for past contributions. He isn’t anywhere close to a $9m player.
But, there is a cap. It is what it is. These two players make close to 25% of it. They are in no position to make demands. Had they taken less, then maybe.
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It's not just the player - for 8 or 9 I'd want $7M minimum savings vs what the player would earn as a UFA over the course of years of control. So I wouldn't even trade it for Rantanen and I'd want a sweetener for Ehlers. But the corollary is as shitty as the Matt Tkachuk deal worked out if the Canucks were to trade EP or Hughes, 8th overall and Protas that would provide more value than a boatload of guys with a year or 2 left that are earning full retail with a pick in the 20s or years away.
Id figure its more realistic to trade that package to Marcus Pettersson and play him as our 1C, than Canucks giving us Elias Pettersson.
Either that, or maybe you guys are talking about that other Elias Pettersson that Canucks drafted last summer. Maybe they drafted him for solely this reason, to fool someone in a trade.
Anyways. I dont buy in that 8th overall is overly exciting pick this year. Its top 3-4 heavy, big leap after that. So the balls better bounce our way..
Either that, or maybe you guys are talking about that other Elias Pettersson that Canucks drafted last summer. Maybe they drafted him for solely this reason, to fool someone in a trade.
Anyways. I dont buy in that 8th overall is overly exciting pick this year. Its top 3-4 heavy, big leap after that. So the balls better bounce our way..
No one was saying we could trade 8OA for McAvoy or Rantanen. I was responding to a post saying we shouldn’t be trading futures for players to help win now and I was showing that 8-10OA is no guarantee. There are only a handful of lottery tickets that really panned out at that position. If by some chance a guy like EP was available with 8OA being a part of the package you make the deal without hesitation.
I wouldn’t move it for Cirelli. Nylander, probably. He’s hit 30 goals three of the last four seasons (Covid year the only exception) and has hit 80 points the last two seasons. He’d be the Caps leading point producer this year and no one except for Ovechkin has hit 30 goals since 2016-17 (though Oshie and Vrana may have hit it during the Covid year). Only one other guy even hit 20 this year in Washington and his pace is what they need.
It really all depends on how long of a process they’re willing to undertake. Do they look at next year as another year to stockpile assets and cut out the fat while still aiming to be mildly competitive? Do they have a playoffs or bust mantra? The paths forward and what they do with a top pick are very different depending on how they view their timeline.
If you want to get a good return on a trade with Buffalo, trade Kuemper to them. They desperately need a goalie.
twabby
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Ovechkin has 3 more years on his contract and at that point I think they have to assume that'll be it for the big man. In all likelihood he will have surpassed Gretzky by then so assuming he'll play longer is risky.
If Ovechkin is open to it I'd love to see them take a step back next year and then try to go for it in 2024-25 and 2025-26. But I highly doubt he'd be willing to go for a two year rebuild. He's too old and I have to imagine he wants to play in the postseason again sooner rather than later because who knows how his body is going to hold up?
I'd highly consider trading the 8th-11th overall unless you really think you can draft a player that not only will be in the league in 2024-25 but will be a significant contributor by then. Even in a good draft is the 8th overall pick going to be a contributor by 2024? Seems unlikely but I'm not sure. They shouldn't make a desperation trade but they shouldn't overvalue the pick either.
If Ovechkin is open to it I'd love to see them take a step back next year and then try to go for it in 2024-25 and 2025-26. But I highly doubt he'd be willing to go for a two year rebuild. He's too old and I have to imagine he wants to play in the postseason again sooner rather than later because who knows how his body is going to hold up?
I'd highly consider trading the 8th-11th overall unless you really think you can draft a player that not only will be in the league in 2024-25 but will be a significant contributor by then. Even in a good draft is the 8th overall pick going to be a contributor by 2024? Seems unlikely but I'm not sure. They shouldn't make a desperation trade but they shouldn't overvalue the pick either.
Langway
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There's a big difference between building methodically and a teardown or full scale rebuild. We know they won't be doing the later but there's ample opportunity within a competitive framework to responsibly keep the future bright. How realistically competitive are they going to be the next two seasons with Backstrom anyway? A puncher's chance is better than none but they've been in that state for years now and many of the key pieces are in clear decline. It's unrealistic to expect that to change conveniently and seamlessly. The amount of turnover they need to be highly competitive is likely to take another year, maybe two. It needs to be a sustained concerted process. It's not that they can't improve immediately it's that in the bigger picture most anything readily available is probably now insufficient. They need foundational talent the way they've been playing.
I'd absolutely shoot for 2024 or 2025 as more of a prime window than next season at least. Maybe it's a dangerous swing period to assume they'll just bridge along and maintain while trolling for value and not risk losing them. But if they have any hope of rebounding there does need to be a greater sense of discipline and direction over a longer period than just their generic day-to-day, year-to-year competitiveness. If much of the core can no longer consistently hack it then that's just a curveball the players will have to deal with while mgmt. responsibly readjusts. Expecting a GM to throw caution to wind to compensate for such under-performing commitments is kind of childish and unrealistic. If the right deals are there, great, but some of these issues are likely to persist due to how little cap space there is and how little surplus value they'll get. They'll need key help next season to even be a bubble team but they don't have to absolutely cash in futures just to make their captain happy.
Nylander may be about as good as they could hope for under the circumstances. Toronto hedges against further losses by adding a top 10 pick with savings to spend elsewhere. Could work for both sides. But a big key to holding on to high picks is future surplus value. This off-season could be something of a marshmallow test for the Caps. (That's lately always my basic point.) It's likely to be very tempting to do something bold for immediacy's sake to make a statement. But I think that can and should be done responsibly. Ridding themselves of Kuznetsov is a key first step. Same with Mantha. Maybe there's something bold that's also sensible but generally I'm less inclined to believe a splashy off-season is a worthwhile one. They could stand to be a little more boring and uneventful. Focus more on the details of more of a developmental coach/system again, focus more on substance and less on headlines and the raw desire to compete.
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If the plan is to get back in the mix and ”win it all” for 2-3 more years, the random 8th overall doesnt really mix that well with the timeline and best asset management for the short look would likely be trading the pick.
The upside on that range guys from what ive read is more a middle-sixer than a top line guy. Something comparative like a Strome etc… and as seen you can find those guys from FA pool too, like Strome etc. (Unless onbviously you luck out on finding a rare gem with the pick.) But as a point, as for the infamous ”asset management” its more likely we can benefit more trading the pick than keeping it in this timeline. Some GM is likely willing to give a top line player for that pick and that is likely more beneficial for us for the next two seasons, than a solid middle-six player would be for us in 3-5 years.
It would likely not be smart hockey decision in a long run, but we are way past the point where we should just make the right overall choices and its more about what makes most sense today. As boneheaded as it would be, sometimes you just need to double up on the bad beat. ”Pot committed” in poker terms to pay for that river card even knowing you are a huge underdog going for it. Something about if the org chooses a direction, i hope they go all the way to back it up. Instead of trying to eat the cake and save it, sort of.
Pretty sure we do keep the pick though
I hope i managed to make this post as confusing as possible….
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