Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think it means, if we don't move on from at least two of Backie, Kuzy, Mantha or Oshie, we're not making the playoffs next year and will be right back in Tank Watch 2.0. I think its the correct prediction.

The only one I'd consider keeping is Oshie because he brings supreme effort night in night out. His issue is only injuries, not effort. 19, 92, 39 are different stories. They bring no effort at all for various reasons - For Backie its the hip, Kuzy and Mantha just don't give a crap. I'd roll the dice on Oshie one more year because at least when he's hurt we get to see a kid play in his place. Backs, Kuz and Mantha are just taking up space melting the ice and can't really be scratched over a long term.

 

[Langway]

If they can go out and get a few actual top six wingers then you start to see a roster that has some potential. If not this team will be tough to watch.

Even then center and defense could well still be issues. They shouldn't recklessly go about restructuring only to remain pretty mid. Better to hold off, remain patient, retain futures and develop them while letting other issues resolve themselves (Backstrom primarily but it may not be too long until Oshie can't suit up).

Maybe they dump 92/39 to free up space to other ends but it's hard to figure they can cheaply and conveniently turn it around significantly enough via a couple wingers and a coaching change. I doubt Sandin & Fehevary are good enough top 4 D under the circumstances unless they absolutely crush it on top six adds and play a much firmer game up front. Maybe they can manage to hedge in UFA on a 3LD over Alexeyev that could supply more quality minutes.

McMichael is a tough call. Ideally you'd like to give him a center spot and let him run with it. But we'll see if they have the patience given uncertainty elsewhere. That may still be a process they don't believe they can afford given their margins will likely remain thin. I could see them instead valuing another Eller type, opting yet again for convention and low ceiling over patiently playing the long game. It's a tough situation wanting to give Ovechkin a better supporting cast while some of the areas they're lacking probably can't be conveniently upgraded as in the past. They can focus more on details, depth and discipline but in the bigger picture that has limited impact against higher-end teams. In some respects it seems like these next two seasons even may be write-offs against the very best unless they're prepared to do what it takes to upgrade over 19/77. Not sure they've got to rid themselves of all of them but they do need to realize that their top-end talent is now perhaps drastically insufficient.

 

[YippieKaey]

The nerve of TJ being our 3rd leading goal scorer in only 58 games. An atrocious 26 goal pace for a season!! gasp….


I like to imagine guys who can score with speedy skilled Centers to maximize their talents….but that’s just me.

But pace isn't production, and production equals points in the standings. I love Oshie and if rebuild is the melody then i say keep him as a mentor for the young kids. But if we're aiming for playoffs, his cap hit is better utilized elsewhere (if we can find any FA/trades).

His injury situation is only going to get worse.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

But pace isn't production, and production equals points in the standings. I love Oshie and if rebuild is the melody then i say keep him as a mentor for the young kids. But if we're aiming for playoffs, his cap hit is better utilized elsewhere (if we can find any FA/trades).

His injury situation is only going to get worse.

I’d ship the underperforming guys with obvious lack of intensity….but ya know….preferences.

 

[g00n]

It’s impossible to see a path forward to competing if all of Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Oshie, and Mantha are on the team next year. I don’t think it’s feasible for them to compete if those four guys are still here, regardless of what other moves they make, unless multiple guys have renaissance seasons and banking on that is not a good strategy. It’s hard to see them competing even if just three return. If only two return then there’s a viable path forward.

In terms of players that need to go, from most beneficial to least, it’s Backstrom then a wide gap then Kuznetsov, Mantha, and Oshie. Oshie is fine as an overpaid third liner if there aren’t other albatross contracts. Let’s assume Oshie and Backstrom are back because barring retirement, I don’t see the team getting rid of them. I’m also penciling in McMichael at 2C. He’s a good player who should be in the lineup and his low AAV will help cancel out other bad contracts. If they can go out and get a few actual top six wingers then you start to see a roster that has some potential. If not this team will be tough to watch.

They can win with 1 Kozloaf, but not 4.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Even then center and defense could well still be issues. They shouldn't recklessly go about restructuring only to remain pretty mid. Better to hold off, remain patient, retain futures and develop them while letting other issues resolve themselves (Backstrom primarily but it may not be too long until Oshie can't suit up).

Maybe they dump 92/39 to free up space to other ends but it's hard to figure they can cheaply and conveniently turn it around significantly enough via a couple wingers and a coaching change. I doubt Sandin & Fehevary are good enough top 4 D under the circumstances unless they absolutely crush it on top six adds and play a much firmer game up front. Maybe they can manage to hedge in UFA on a 3LD over Alexeyev that could supply more quality minutes.

McMichael is a tough call. Ideally you'd like to give him a center spot and let him run with it. But we'll see if they have the patience given uncertainty elsewhere. That may still be a process they don't believe they can afford given their margins will likely remain thin. I could see them instead valuing another Eller type, opting yet again for convention and low ceiling over patiently playing the long game. It's a tough situation wanting to give Ovechkin a better supporting cast while some of the areas they're lacking probably can't be conveniently upgraded as in the past. They can focus more on details, depth and discipline but in the bigger picture that has limited impact against higher-end teams. In some respects it seems like these next two seasons even may be write-offs against the very best unless they're prepared to do what it takes to upgrade over 19/77. Not sure they've got to rid themselves of all of them but they do need to realize that their top-end talent is now perhaps drastically insufficient.

The defensive depth this year was good enough when healthy. Not elite but good enough. Top to bottom they were solid and I think underrated as a unit. That might not be the case next year though as swapping Sandin for Orlov at this point looks like a huge downgrade, at least defensively. So yeah, I agree that needs to be evaluated. I do think if they weren’t so mid up front though that the stresses on the defense wouldn’t be as great.

They have to either trade McMichael or play him. He’s a valuable asset providing no value at the moment. I think they need to play him because unless he’s part of a bigger package for a high end player I don’t see him alone having enough value to help improve the team in a win-now trade. If he’s traded by himself you’d assume it’s for an aging vet that doesn’t fit his team’s window any more or for a young player who also needs a change of scenery like a Filip Zadina. Do either of those transactions make this team better now? Doubtful.

I also think he’s a good player that would help in all phases of the game but especially with the transition game. And he’s cheap. This is his player card from last year playing primarily out of position. If I was in charge I’d want to see what this guy could do.

Ultimately they need to decide what kind of window this retool is. Are they making this a two year process? Are they just going to tread water until the corpses of Backstrom and Oshie are shoveled on the dead people’s cart? That decision will dictate how aggressive they are in spending futures to help now.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Dude should retire man.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Dude should retire man.

And leave 17m or whatever on the table? No one is doing that.

 

[twabby]

And leave 17m or whatever on the table? No one is doing that.

There are plenty of ways to retire while still collecting a paycheck.

For instance, he could suddenly become allergic to hockey equipment and retire due to medical reasons.

 

[Ridley Simon]

There are plenty of ways to retire while still collecting a paycheck.

For instance, he could suddenly become allergic to hockey equipment and retire due to medical reasons.

We are saving that for Backstrom, @twabby. Don’t let the cat out of the bag man

 

[um]

There are plenty of ways to retire while still collecting a paycheck.

For instance, he could suddenly become allergic to hockey equipment and retire due to medical reasons.

Not gonna lie, I’m gonna miss the shit out of Oshie when he’s gone. It sucks we’re near the end.

Kuzy and Mantha are free to leave any day.

 

[twabby]

Joking aside I don't think Oshie or Backstrom should retire if they still want to play. It's their right to keep playing if they want.

But if they want to retire the NHL is more than willing to sign off on LTIR for far weaker reasons than "I can't walk for weeks at a time" (Oshie) and "I have a brand new hip that sets off airport metal detectors" (Backstrom).

One way or another Oshie and Backstrom will collect their money. I don't think they need to worry about that when making a decision on whether to continue playing or not.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Joking aside I don't think Oshie or Backstrom should retire if they still want to play. It's their right to keep playing if they want.

But if they want to retire the NHL is more than willing to sign off on LTIR for far weaker reasons than "I can't walk for weeks at a time" (Oshie) and "I have a brand new hip that sets off airport metal detectors" (Backstrom).

One way or another Oshie and Backstrom will collect their money. I don't think they need to worry about that when making a decision on whether to continue playing or not.

Remember Insurance providers need to approve this stuff….so it’s not like they can lie without it being criminal.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Remember Insurance providers need to approve this stuff….so it’s not like they can lie without it being criminal.

And that shit is real. My own damned insurance is fighting me for an ER visit, which lead to a long stay over an organ issue — and they think I could’ve done it from home. Right.

Really. EKG and shit from home. Ok cool. Sign me up.

 

[twabby]

Would insurance need to get involved if the team just agrees to pay out the remainder of the contract? Honest question.

There’s several examples of older players LTIRetiring on some weaker pretenses than a hip resurfacing and Oshie’s collection of injuries that I doubt insurance would be anything more than a speedbump if they just wanted to retire.

Again not saying they should retire. But I don’t think fear of losing out on their money should weigh into their decisions.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Would insurance need to get involved if the team just agrees to pay out the remainder of the contract? Honest question.

No. Only if it was on the providers books. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it

 

[HandsomeTom43]

I'll be nostalgic and sad when Backstrom and Oshie retire. They've both provided me with a ton of memories and I'm so thankful I've been able to seem play in person a dozen or so times. I believe both guys will be involved with the organization until they don't want to be after they retire.

Fair or unfair, when we look back at this core it's going to be Ovi, Backstrom, Carlson, and Oshie who are remembered as all-time Caps legends. You can throw Holtby and Wilson in there too in all likelihood but everyone else will be secondary.

I wish they would both retire to give the organization flexibility and expediting the retool/rebuild which their money certainly can do. It's a damn shame, however, that Oshie is basically second in goals/game on the team. He has 19 in 58 games, and Strome has 21 in 78 games played.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

And leave 17m or whatever on the table? No one is doing that.

Oh I know he won’t but he should. That being said it’s pretty easy to fail your physical come fall with all of his ailments I bet.

Not gonna lie, I’m gonna miss the shit out of Oshie when he’s gone. It sucks we’re near the end.

Kuzy and Mantha are free to leave any day.

I’ll pay for Kuzy and Manthas plane ride.

 

[twabby]

I was at the game and he was everywhere. He looked really good. Skating legs were there and he had a few really nice shifts in the offensive zone. Very encouraging to see him moving the way he was moving last night.

I really like Dylan Strome. Seeing him in person you get an appreciation for how well he thinks the game and sees the ice. Terrific pickup by BMac and staff.

Sandin has a lot of potential but there’s some serious work that needs to be done defensively. I think he’ll improve over time but yeah, he’s nowhere close to being an Orlov replacement right now.

Kuznetsov was sad to watch. He used to be must-see TV and it’s a bummer to see what he’s become. Just zero effort defensively and not a lot of compete in any phase of the game.

Snively was noticeable in a good way. He’s a smart player. Could have something there.

Protas and Milano were both pretty bad. Protas seemed to get a bunch of shifts at center but I don’t think he did much with them.

They’re going to re-sign Craig Smith, aren’t they?

I mentioned it a few months ago but Strome in Chicago is a great example of a guy who didn’t pass many people’s eye test but was clearly a valuable player who made his linemates better. Barring any additions in the offseason he is far and away this team’s 1C entering next year. Which makes Laviolette’s healthy scratch of him earlier this year all the more damning and should call into question his talent evaluation ability.

Kuznetsov is checked out and has been for a while. He needs to go and this is coming from the guy who defended him a few years ago when few others would. I’d much rather see a new face brought in or McMichael actually giving an effort and developing for 82 games than to see this:

Sandin has been rough defensively, though I think it’s fallen off a lot with the team as a whole just going through the motions. Hoping that a new coach and a clean slate next season will get him playing like he was when he first arrived and how he played in Toronto.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I mentioned it a few months ago but Strome in Chicago is a great example of a guy who didn’t pass many people’s eye test but was clearly a valuable player who made his linemates better. Barring any additions in the offseason he is far and away this team’s 1C entering next year. Which makes Laviolette’s healthy scratch of him earlier this year all the more damning and should call into question his talent evaluation ability.

Kuznetsov is checked out and has been for a while. He needs to go and this is coming from the guy who defended him a few years ago when few others would. I’d much rather see a new face brought in or McMichael actually giving an effort and developing for 82 games than to see this:

View attachment 685645

Sandin has been rough defensively, though I think it’s fallen off a lot with the team as a whole just going through the motions. Hoping that a new coach and a clean slate next season will get him playing like he was when he first arrived and how he played in Toronto.

Are you privy to the inner workings of the team and the lives of the players? If not, get over it and yourself. You have no idea what goes into any individual scratch. For all we know he had something personal going on and Lavi gave him “time off” to get his head right.

 

[Langway]

Two more years at $7.8M for an aging player with a checkered history isn't going to be easy to move. They may need to take someone else's problem, which defensively at least may be worthwhile. I doubt Mantha is overly easy to move either. Maybe later in the off-season when options dwindle and teams become desperate due to lacking internal options...but that requires some impatience to not wait and see what else becomes available. Even then there may be other expendable players more appealing. Older lazier players in general are tough to pawn off (unless they're injured and become accounting loopholes). It's hard to see any GM coveting either player to the point of being a prime target with positive value. Mantha may actually have more value between the two, in part due to less term remaining at a lower AAV but also because it's a lot easier to hide an unreliable winger compared to a center.

Maybe they can pawn 92 off on CHI or SJS but I don't doubt they'll need to add some modest futures as enticement. And 92 does have a 10-team NTC so he'd need to oblige. Even in an off-season lacking UFA center options it's hard to imagine legit competitive teams having interest. The variance in what to expect out of him is so vast that, with disappointment more likely than not, that opting for lesser but more reliable talents is more desirable. He's just not worth the headache and who knows to what degree a staff would be able to change that. In the absolute right scenario it could work. In Carolina maybe they'd be able to insulate him enough. But Carolina ought to be targeting different talents, more goal-scorers, if they want to break through.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Are you privy to the inner workings of the team and the lives of the players? If not, get over it and yourself. You have no idea what goes into any individual scratch. For all we know he had something personal going on and Lavi gave him “time off” to get his head right.

Laviolette literally said he was trying new things as guys reintegrated into the lineup and he was scratching Strome because it was his turn. Maybe that was Lavi covering for Strome but that’s highly doubtful given it wasn’t just a healthy scratch for Strome, he also played him at 4LW. All this while all of Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Eller were getting caved in. There’s nothing really else to read into except for Laviolette trying something and getting it wrong which some times happens when you try new things.

Their best bet realistically next year is for Strome, McMichael, and Dowd to play the bulk of even strength minutes and leave Backstrom to easier deployments and the PP.

 

[Brian23]

Are you privy to the inner workings of the team and the lives of the players? If not, get over it and yourself. You have no idea what goes into any individual scratch. For all we know he had something personal going on and Lavi gave him “time off” to get his head right.

I don't understand how you can chide someone for not being "privy to the inner workings" while full on assuming what those "privy inner workings" were.

Follow that up with just being wrong becaus Lavi told us why he did it. ‘Tough decisions:’ Laviolette scratched Strome to maintain balance

Or maybe we look when he benched him for those "privy inner workings" Dylan Strome and Sonny Milano benched in game a week after re-signing longterm

All that right after GMBM resigned them.

 

[twabby]

Are you privy to the inner workings of the team and the lives of the players? If not, get over it and yourself. You have no idea what goes into any individual scratch. For all we know he had something personal going on and Lavi gave him “time off” to get his head right.

Strome also had the third most 5v5 ice time among centers before Backstrom returned. He got fewer 5v5 minutes than both Lars Eller and Evgeny Kuznetsov despite *gestures toward Eller's and Kuznetsov's player cards*

I think Laviolette's actions prior to Backstrom's return, namely his ice time allocation, indicated that he valued Strome less than he should have. We don't need to make up stories to justify a poor decision!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Laviolette literally said he was trying new things as guys reintegrated into the lineup and he was scratching Strome because it was his turn. Maybe that was Lavi covering for Strome but that’s highly doubtful given it wasn’t just a healthy scratch for Strome, he also played him at 4LW. All this while all of Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Eller were getting caved in. There’s nothing really else to read into except for Laviolette trying something and getting it wrong which some times happens when you try new things.

Their best bet realistically next year is for Strome, McMichael, and Dowd to play the bulk of even strength minutes and leave Backstrom to easier deployments and the PP.

you've heard of bosses protecting employees by not giving out too much info right?

Maybe he was just tinkering, and that's acceptable to me as a fan. However, Twabby is a dog with a bone....he can't let go. Who cares about that decision today? Only the people who want to shit on Lavi....(cue Brian23, one of the Lavi mob).