Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Calicaps]

We mostly knew this but then we have people like Tarik and others mentioning how Washington should be looking for defensive help and that the team is happy with their forwards and it’s just baffling that this is their assessment of the team. Are they watching the same game I am? (regression equations and advanced linear algebra computations on a cloud system)

I kind of doubt there are anything to those rumors but still. I don’t think they can just waste another season without addressing their main needs. Ovechkin is getting older but so is their defense and the other strengths of their roster. Fading away taking punchers chances at the postseason at best (if they make it at all) is for losers!

Actually, it's often for winners. Great franchises do this. They honor their great players and eras by paying them and playing them until they retire. Then the teams rebuild, sometimes quickly, sometimes not--sometimes successfully, sometimes not.

I hope the Caps can inject enough youth to stay competitive, but this very well may just be the way the Caps roll until Ovie decides he's done.

It's not a disgrace. What would be disgraceful would be to just kick all the vets to curb like they were irrelevant.

 

[895]

Actually, it's often for winners. Great franchises do this. They honor their great players and eras by paying them and playing them until they retire. Then the teams rebuild, sometimes quickly, sometimes not--sometimes successfully, sometimes not.

I hope the Caps can inject enough youth to stay competitive, but this very well may just be the way the Caps roll until Ovie decides he's done.

It's not a disgrace. What would be disgraceful would be to just kick all the vets to curb like they were irrelevant.

What great franchises do you have in mind that did this?

Also while Ovechkin certainly deserves this royal treatment, and Backstrom probably too, Oshie does not.

 

[twabby]

Actually, it's often for winners. Great franchises do this. They honor their great players and eras by paying them and playing them until they retire. Then the teams rebuild, sometimes quickly, sometimes not--sometimes successfully, sometimes not.

I hope the Caps can inject enough youth to stay competitive, but this very well may just be the way the Caps roll until Ovie decides he's done.

It's not a disgrace. What would be disgraceful would be to just kick all the vets to curb like they were irrelevant.

I think they should keep Ovechkin and Backstrom for the reasons you state. They are franchise legends.

I don’t think that Oshie and Kuznetsov (and Carlson for that matter) should be given that same treatment. Heck they already moved on from Braden Holtby, which appears to have been the correct move given his rapid decline post-Cup. I think they can do the same with others.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

How about an actual roster upgrade Instead? Caps need a reliable top-6 threat.

I would preferably on defense, however at this point and time I don't believe Mantha has any value. I really don't like picking on the guy, but it's all true. I just can't see a GM taking on that kind of contract with no production, well a smart GM. Of course there is the issue he'll go to another team and light it up miraculously.

 

[Calicaps]

I think they should keep Ovechkin and Backstrom for the reasons you state. They are franchise legends.

I don’t think that Oshie and Kuznetsov (and Carlson for that matter) should be given that same treatment.

Oshie is I think debatable. He's heart and soul. Kuzy can pound sand. And Carlson could be moved, but it could backfire. He signed a fairly team-friendly deal when he was a Norris candidate and everyone wanted him paid. He stayed in DC in part because it's his wife's home. The team would need to work with him to find an arrangement that works or risk looking pretty shitty.

What great franchises do you have in mind that did this?

Also while Ovechkin certainly deserves this royal treatment, and Backstrom probably too, Oshie does not.

Pretty much every winning franchise I've watched over the past 50 years. Just as a for instance, Detroit and Colorado of the '90s and aughts. They kept their guys way past expiry out of respect.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I would preferably on defense, however at this point and time I don't believe Mantha has any value. I really don't like picking on the guy, but it's all true. I just can't see a GM taking on that kind of contract with no production, well a smart GM. Of course there is the issue he'll go to another team and light it up miraculously.

I don’t believe that for a second….

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Actually, it's often for winners. Great franchises do this. They honor their great players and eras by paying them and playing them until they retire. Then the teams rebuild, sometimes quickly, sometimes not--sometimes successfully, sometimes not.

I hope the Caps can inject enough youth to stay competitive, but this very well may just be the way the Caps roll until Ovie decides he's done.

It's not a disgrace. What would be disgraceful would be to just kick all the vets to curb like they were irrelevant.

I agree with you. It took forever to get folks to start looking at the Caps for UFAs and trade lists. Throwing players that have earned their pay to the curb sends out bad signals, especially if it's due to injuries. Playing lazy and not caring is another thing .

 

[895]

Oshie is I think debatable. He's heart and soul. Kuzy can pound sand. And Carlson could be moved, but it could backfire. He signed a fairly team-friendly deal when he was a Norris candidate and everyone wanted him paid. He stayed in DC in part because it's his wife's home. The team would need to work with him to find an arrangement that works or risk looking pretty shitty.


Pretty much every winning franchise I've watched over the past 50 years. Just as a for instance, Detroit and Colorado of the '90s and aughts. They kept their guys way past expiry out of respect.

Pre-Cap era is a totally different beast.

If this was a pre-cap I wouldn't care if Ted paid Ovechkin 100m a year and Oshie 20m a year. Those Detroit and Colorado teams were the highest payroll teams in the league and they were still winning.

I can't think of a single team that kept their highly paid veterans while losing in a capped league.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

I don’t believe that for a second….

I hope you're right! I don't disagree with trading him for an actual upgrade though.

 

[Calicaps]

I agree with you. It took forever to get folks to start looking at the Caps for UFAs and trade lists. Throwing players that have earned their pay to the curb sends out bad signals, especially if it's due to injuries. Playing lazy and not caring is another thing .

People don't remember how undesirable the Caps were as a place to play for like 3 decades.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

We mostly knew this but then we have people like Tarik and others mentioning how Washington should be looking for defensive help and that the team is happy with their forwards and it’s just baffling that this is their assessment of the team. Are they watching the same game I am? (regression equations and advanced linear algebra computations on a cloud system)

I kind of doubt there are anything to those rumors but still. I don’t think they can just waste another season without addressing their main needs. Ovechkin is getting older but so is their defense and the other strengths of their roster. Fading away taking punchers chances at the postseason at best (if they make it at all) is for losers!

I would assume the thought process is, they've already allocated a lot of money to the top six forwards and those are the guys they've hitched their wagon to (with the exception of Mantha). The top six cap hits at forward -- Ovi, Nick, Kuz, Oshie, Wilson, Mantha -- account for ~$44M in cap space. Them, along with Carlson and now Kuemper, are the core of their team. They're not going to spend premium assets and cap dollars to displace one (or more) of those guys. They're just not, at least not during the season. They should, but they won't. And the problem is, not a single one of those guys right now with the exception of Ovi is worth their contract. Ovi and Wilson are the only two even remotely close to providing fair value and maybe Oshie as well when he actually plays. You can't fix that during the season. You can only hope they start to play better. I also think they think they're already forced to scratch good forwards so why add to the log jam when we see clearly that the rotation piece isn't working?

Generally, I don't think they have the stomach to punt some of those guys. And I think that edict is coming from the top. Look at how Ted mandated that Beal get extended even though he's worth nowhere near a max contract. The Wizards have the 6th worst points percentage in the NBA and their "Big 3" (Beal, KP, Kuzma) will cost them $100M next year, assuming they do another dumb thing and re-sign Kuzma this offseason. They will be mediocre, at best, for the next four years or until they're rid of Beal, whichever comes first. As for the Caps, Ted has his Cup and he has Ovi chasing Gretzky and he's not going to want to rock the boat. Maybe they'd be more desperate if 2018 didn't happen but it did so guys got "thank you" deals.

They also need dance partners. Who is going to be lining up to take Kuznetsov, Mantha, or Oshie off their hands, especially when it's unclear if the cap is going to go up as much as they thought it might?

What's likely going to happen is, barring another run in February like they had in December, they're going to maybe add a piece or two around the edges, maybe try to clear Mantha, and look at Backstrom and Wilson getting up to speed as their acquisitions. Meaningful change won't come until the offseason, if at all.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Pre-Cap era is a totally different beast.

If this was a pre-cap I wouldn't care if Ted paid Ovechkin 100m a year and Oshie 20m a year. Those Detroit and Colorado teams were the highest payroll teams in the league and they were still winning.

I can't think of a single team that kept their highly paid veterans while losing in a capped league.

Define losing to you? Do you mean losing in the first two rounds regularly or not making the playoffs? Colorado was gifted a franchise that sucked mightily during the late 80s and early 90s stocked with 1st rounders and reaped the rewards of Lindros trade. Detroit figured it out when they realized Cheveldae wasn't an NHL SC type, Yzerman adapted his game, and of course studs like Fedorov and kept drafting good players in the Cap era. To me, I still views the Caps as winning at least in the regular season and making those goals Ted set with being competitive. If the Caps were way behind this season and out, I would say yeah trade now the inflated contracts.

 

[Calicaps]

Pre-Cap era is a totally different beast.

If this was a pre-cap I wouldn't care if Ted paid Ovechkin 100m a year and Oshie 20m a year. Those Detroit and Colorado teams were the highest payroll teams in the league and they were still winning.

I can't think of a single team that kept their highly paid veterans while losing in a capped league.

There's only been a salary cap for 1 generation of players. The culture of treating players with respect--or not--is way older and the stain or shine on a franchise lasts way longer. The Caps and Pitt are really the first two teams to face this issue at a high level and both have kept their vets. So there you go.

EDIT: And I'd note that all the clamoring to cut guys loose was going on before the Caps won a championship, too. Even Ovie. But the best teams of the era--Pens, Caps, Tampa--all held onto their core guys until they reached the pinnacle despite calls for change. And now they are holding onto those guys even in decline.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

People don't remember how undesirable the Caps were as a place to play for like 3 decades.

Indeed and how few fans there actually were then. It's great to see that change.

 

[895]

There's only been a salary cap for 1 generation of players. The culture of treating players with respect--or not--is way older and the stain or shine on a franchise lasts way longer. The Caps and Pitt are really the first two teams to face this issue at a high level and both have kept their vets. So there you go.

EDIT: And I'd note that all the clamoring to cut guys loose was going on before the Caps won a championship, too. Even Ovie. But the best teams of the era--Pens, Caps, Tampa--all held onto their core guys until they reached the pinnacle despite calls for change. And now they are holding onto those guys even in decline.

What do you mean? Pittsburgh got rid of Kessel who won them 2 cups because he was clearly declining. They only kept the franchise cornerstones in Malkin, Crosby, and Letang.

Oshie is more of a Kessel player than a Malkin level player.

 

[Calicaps]

What do you mean? Pittsburgh got rid of Kessel who won them 2 cups because he was clearly declining. They only kept the franchise cornerstones in Malkin, Crosby, and Letang.

Oshie is more of a Kessel player than a Malkin level player.

I have precisely zero idea how Kessel was perceived in the room in Pitt. Oshie is clearly beloved in DC among players and fans. And anyway, you don't seem to consider anyone other than Ovie to be truly "cornerstone" for the Caps--you even said before "probably" 19. We just disagree on who is core for this team.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Kessel was a mercenary acquisition…..never really core, and they cast him off when it made sense because of that.

Oshie is respected if not revered in the room…..Kessel…..not even close.

When Oshie doesn’t play well in the playoffs, let’s talk, maybe then it’s time to move on.

 

[895]

I have precisely zero idea how Kessel was perceived in the room in Pitt. Oshie is clearly beloved in DC among players and fans. And anyway, you don't seem to consider anyone other than Ovie to be truly "cornerstone" for the Caps--you even said before "probably" 19. We just disagree on who is core for this team.

I'm just saying, your idea that all great franchises kept their beloved vets on big contracts to the detriment of the team's on ice performance doesn't seem accurate.

Pittsburgh traded Jagr. To us. They don't care. They will trade someone if they need to.

Colorado let Peter Forsberg go because he was asking too much.

Detroit the same with Fedorov.

Seems more like the exact opposite. Great franchises recognize when it's time to move on.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I wonder if we could make Seth Jones happen with Mantha/Eller and our 1st and a prospect.
The Hawks clearly tanking for Bedard and Mantha and Eller would work for the cap space.

Ive always like Seth Jones and thought hes was a top 3 Defender before getting traded to the Hawks might be a good time to buy low and gamble hes not washed.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm just saying, your idea that all great franchises kept their beloved vets on big contracts to the detriment of the team's on ice performance doesn't seem accurate.

Pittsburgh traded Jagr. To us. They don't care. They will trade someone if they need to.

Colorado let Peter Forsberg go because he was asking too much.

Detroit the same with Fedorov.

Seems more like the exact opposite. Great franchises recognize when it's time to move on.

Uhh….those players each had a massive say in that moving on….Jagr was a nutter who wanted out and pouted until he got his way to play in NY, Forsberg and Feds were both close to washed….they each basically had one good year after they left and then slid big time….

I‘m sure there are some better examples for what you’re saying..because those seem more like the exceptions.

 

[Corby78]

I don’t understand why trading a guy means we now hate him and the organization doesn’t appreciate him. Now TJ is a looker room guy and I think provides a lot of value there too. But at this point I’m open to almost all trade proposals to get younger

 

[g00n]

What do you mean? Pittsburgh got rid of Kessel who won them 2 cups because he was clearly declining. They only kept the franchise cornerstones in Malkin, Crosby, and Letang.

Oshie is more of a Kessel player than a Malkin level player.

Kessel asked to be traded.

 

[Langway]

A more recent example would be Tampa moving out McDonagh, though that was partially in order to secure Sergachev and others to long-term deals. The best opportunity the Caps will probably have to do something similar is with Kuznetsov thanks to Strome & Lapierre/CMM but you wonder if the off-ice baggage won't make that pretty complicated.

Turnover happens. St. Louis won the Cup the year after the Caps and conceivably could only have five players left from that team next season (since it looks like they'll be sellers). The Caps are at eight. Even Tampa's first Cup team only has ten remaining. The 2017 PIT team only has five (six incl. Letang who didn't play). Not to say they've got to thin that group or else. The bigger issue is the lack of developing support players. Mac has done just fine filling gaps to keep it afloat but the upside with that level of readily-available scrapheap player tends to be limited (as are the cap savings in terms of duration).

 

[twabby]

I would assume the thought process is, they've already allocated a lot of money to the top six forwards and those are the guys they've hitched their wagon to (with the exception of Mantha). The top six cap hits at forward -- Ovi, Nick, Kuz, Oshie, Wilson, Mantha -- account for ~$44M in cap space. Them, along with Carlson and now Kuemper, are the core of their team. They're not going to spend premium assets and cap dollars to displace one (or more) of those guys. They're just not, at least not during the season. They should, but they won't. And the problem is, not a single one of those guys right now with the exception of Ovi is worth their contract. Ovi and Wilson are the only two even remotely close to providing fair value and maybe Oshie as well when he actually plays. You can't fix that during the season. You can only hope they start to play better. I also think they think they're already forced to scratch good forwards so why add to the log jam when we see clearly that the rotation piece isn't working?

Generally, I don't think they have the stomach to punt some of those guys. And I think that edict is coming from the top. Look at how Ted mandated that Beal get extended even though he's worth nowhere near a max contract. The Wizards have the 6th worst points percentage in the NBA and their "Big 3" (Beal, KP, Kuzma) will cost them $100M next year, assuming they do another dumb thing and re-sign Kuzma this offseason. They will be mediocre, at best, for the next four years or until they're rid of Beal, whichever comes first. As for the Caps, Ted has his Cup and he has Ovi chasing Gretzky and he's not going to want to rock the boat. Maybe they'd be more desperate if 2018 didn't happen but it did so guys got "thank you" deals.

They also need dance partners. Who is going to be lining up to take Kuznetsov, Mantha, or Oshie off their hands, especially when it's unclear if the cap is going to go up as much as they thought it might?

What's likely going to happen is, barring another run in February like they had in December, they're going to maybe add a piece or two around the edges, maybe try to clear Mantha, and look at Backstrom and Wilson getting up to speed as their acquisitions. Meaningful change won't come until the offseason, if at all.

I think you're probably correct about what their thought process is. While I think dealing Oshie and/or Kuznetsov would have to wait until the offseason I think they can clear a logjam and still acquire an impact talent if they get aggressive about shopping Eller and Mantha now. Neither guy is in their long-term plans, neither guy is moving the needle right now, and both should really at worst fetch "future considerations."

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I wonder if we could make Seth Jones happen with Mantha/Eller and our 1st and a prospect.
The Hawks clearly tanking for Bedard and Mantha and Eller would work for the cap space.

Ive always like Seth Jones and thought hes was a top 3 Defender before getting traded to the Hawks might be a good time to buy low and gamble hes not washed.

Yeah, no thanks on Seth Jones. I wouldn’t call gambling on a guy making $9.5M until 2030 (!) a buy-low opportunity, especially given the decline in his play.