Prospect Info: Caps Prospects General Discussion Thread - 2024-25

[Cush]

 

[Cush]

Lenny takes the hit to make the play on the first goal. Creates the turnover for the second

 

[usiel]

Lenny takes the hit to make the play on the first goal. Creates the turnover for the second

Saw that hit live was definitely taking a hit to make a play.

 

[Cush]

not sure that was embellishment

Empty netter for #25

 

[Cush]

 

[DWGie26]

Man i hope Cristal translate. It might have to be fast for Caps. Or he could get buried.

 

[Vilica]

Schedule for the week:

Hershey - Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23
South Carolina - Wed 2/19, Fri 2/21, Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23

CHL:
Andrew Cristall Spokane - [Mon 2/17], Fri 2/21, Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23

Terik Parascak Prince George - [Mon 2/17], Fri 2/21, Sat 2/22

Patrick Thomas Brantford - [Mon 2/17], Thu 2/20, Fri 2/21, Sun 2/23

Ilya Protas Windsor - [Mon 2/17], Fri 2/21, Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23

Cam Allen London - [Mon 2/17], Fri 2/21, Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23 - Suspended Indefinitely

Eriks Mateiko Rimouski - Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23

College:
Ryan Leonard BC - Fri 2/14, Sat 2/15

Ryan Chesley Minn - Fri 2/14, Sat 2/15

Cole Hutson BU - Fri 2/14, Sat 2/15

 

[usiel]

Schedule for the week:

Hershey - Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23
South Carolina - Wed 2/19, Fri 2/21, Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23

CHL:
Andrew Cristall Spokane - [Mon 2/17], Fri 2/21, Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23

Terik Parascak Prince George - [Mon 2/17], Fri 2/21, Sat 2/22

Patrick Thomas Brantford - [Mon 2/17], Thu 2/20, Fri 2/21, Sun 2/23

Ilya Protas Windsor - [Mon 2/17], Fri 2/21, Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23

Cam Allen London - [Mon 2/17], Fri 2/21, Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23 - Suspended Indefinitely

Eriks Mateiko Rimouski - Sat 2/22, Sun 2/23

College:
Ryan Leonard BC - Fri 2/14, Sat 2/15

Ryan Chesley Minn - Fri 2/14, Sat 2/15

Cole Hutson BU - Fri 2/14, Sat 2/15

Thx for putting these together always helpful.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

The dude who created the NHLe cards did a 2024 redraft and Hutson jumped to 4OA while Parascak jumped to 10. Has Washington as the team with the best value. He calls Muggli a potential steal which I’m not sure I agree with but hopefully he knows more than me, which shouldn’t be that hard to do.

 

[Calicaps]

The dude who created the NHLe cards did a 2024 redraft and Hutson jumped to 4OA while Parascak jumped to 10. Has Washington as the team with the best value. He calls Muggli a potential steal which I’m not sure I agree with but hopefully he knows more than me, which shouldn’t be that hard to do.

Hard not to love that.

 

[kicksavedave]

The dude who created the NHLe cards did a 2024 redraft and Hutson jumped to 4OA while Parascak jumped to 10. Has Washington as the team with the best value. He calls Muggli a potential steal which I’m not sure I agree with but hopefully he knows more than me, which shouldn’t be that hard to do.

Did he, or will he, redo the 2023 draft where we got Lenny and Cristo, plus Lil Pro?

 

[usiel]

The dude who created the NHLe cards did a 2024 redraft and Hutson jumped to 4OA while Parascak jumped to 10. Has Washington as the team with the best value. He calls Muggli a potential steal which I’m not sure I agree with but hopefully he knows more than me, which shouldn’t be that hard to do.

 

[DWGie26]

Did he, or will he, redo the 2023 draft where we got Lenny and Cristo, plus Lil Pro?

Here is 2023. Leonard not in the top 10. Cristal is number 10 but listed for Blues. Haha

 

[usiel]

No idea who Jesse Kiiskinen is.

 

[Kuz]

No idea who Jesse Kiiskinen is.

Almost PPG in Liiga and 6 goals and 1 assist in WJCU20. Weird list. Dont really see why Leonard have fallen. Also pretty weird with a guy Like Carlsson who have struggled a little, but is an NHL player fall behind Cagnoni. Not worth much this list.

 

[Pigskin]

Here is 2023. Leonard not in the top 10. Cristal is number 10 but listed for Blues. Haha

The Blues had the 10th pick, where AC is now ranked ... at the end of the row it shows Caps +30 as we got him at pick 40

Kiiskinen he ranks 8th, which was our pick, Nashville +60 got him at pick 68

 

[Kazer]

Here is 2023. Leonard not in the top 10. Cristal is number 10 but listed for Blues. Haha

And this is why you need to blend the data test with the eye test because context matters. Using points per game per league as the only metric is going to yield weird results.

Glad to see Cristall getting some love, but there's no chance that Ryan Leonard isn't top 10 in a proper redraft.

Did he, or will he, redo the 2023 draft where we got Lenny and Cristo, plus Lil Pro?

2024 is the Lil Pro draft. Likely a huge source of our 'points' even if not enough to push him into the top 10.

 

[qc14]

It looks like from reading the blurb on his website about it nickthehabsfan only uses a prospect's current season of NHLe to do the projections. This is compared to Byron Bader's, for example, that uses I believe going all the way back to D-2 through whatever the current season is. This really boosts someone like Kiiskinen who's had a massive jump this year in his D+2 compared to Carlsson, who significantly outperformed Kiiskinen from their D-2 to D+1 seasons. IIRC, Bader found that it was actually D-0 production that was most predictive.

I think NHLe has a lot of value, probably more than most people would like to admit. From what I can briefly see posted online about this specific model, I have pretty huge math/data/statistics concerns about how it's been set up and trained. I don't think just straight up ordering prospects by their current year's NHLe is a good way to do a re-draft.

I have some issues with how he operates too, but if you're going to take an NHLe model as gospel I think Bader's is much, much, much better

 

[Silky mitts]

It looks like from reading the blurb on his website about it nickthehabsfan only uses a prospect's current season of NHLe to do the projections. This is compared to Byron Bader's, for example, that uses I believe going all the way back to D-2 through whatever the current season is. This really boosts someone like Kiiskinen who's had a massive jump this year in his D+2 compared to Carlsson, who significantly outperformed Kiiskinen from their D-2 to D+1 seasons. IIRC, Bader found that it was actually D-0 production that was most predictive.

I think NHLe has a lot of value, probably more than most people would like to admit. From what I can briefly see posted online about this specific model, I have pretty huge math/data/statistics concerns about how it's been set up and trained. I don't think just straight up ordering prospects by their current year's NHLe is a good way to do a re-draft.

I have some issues with how he operates too, but if you're going to take an NHLe model as gospel I think Bader's is much, much, much better

I'm sure he's still high on the list but I don't know what more Protas can do to make top 10 in a model that just takes this year into account

 

[Hivemind]

Did he, or will he, redo the 2023 draft where we got Lenny and Cristo, plus Lil Pro?

Ilya Protas was drafted in 2024.

No idea who Jesse Kiiskinen is.

Nashville 3rd rounder in 2023, traded to Detroit. Blossomed this year in Liiga, where he leads HPK in scoring (despite playing 11 fewer games than their second leading scorer) as a 19 year old in a men's league. Led Finland in both goals (6) and points (7) during the WJHC.

 

[Kazer]

It looks like from reading the blurb on his website about it nickthehabsfan only uses a prospect's current season of NHLe to do the projections. This is compared to Byron Bader's, for example, that uses I believe going all the way back to D-2 through whatever the current season is. This really boosts someone like Kiiskinen who's had a massive jump this year in his D+2 compared to Carlsson, who significantly outperformed Kiiskinen from their D-2 to D+1 seasons. IIRC, Bader found that it was actually D-0 production that was most predictive.

I think NHLe has a lot of value, probably more than most people would like to admit. From what I can briefly see posted online about this specific model, I have pretty huge math/data/statistics concerns about how it's been set up and trained. I don't think just straight up ordering prospects by their current year's NHLe is a good way to do a re-draft.

I have some issues with how he operates too, but if you're going to take an NHLe model as gospel I think Bader's is much, much, much better

I haven't looked into the models to know enough about who is better vs worse. Having said that, I'm surprised that nickthehabsfan's model is showing Parascak top 10 ahead of Protas since it seems to only be based on this year (D+1 in this case).

Protas (24-25 only) - 37 goals, 86 points, 49 games
Parascak (24-25 only) - 23 goals, 69 points, 50 games

So there must be something else going on. Maybe he does use some weighting from the prior year as Parascak was very strong last year which would account for the difference.

NHLe is useful to me in terms of measuring scoring [points] potential. It does not measure (nor can it) other factors like leadership, physicality, and defensive play*. And, as I noted before, it does not seem to account for situation like Parascak playing 23-24 largely with Funk & Becher.

 

[Misery74]

I haven't looked into the models to know enough about who is better vs worse. Having said that, I'm surprised that nickthehabsfan's model is showing Parascak top 10 ahead of Protas since it seems to only be based on this year (D+1 in this case).

Protas (24-25 only) - 37 goals, 86 points, 49 games
Parascak (24-25 only) - 23 goals, 69 points, 50 games

So there must be something else going on. Maybe he does use some weighting from the prior year as Parascak was very strong last year which would account for the difference.

NHLe is useful to me in terms of measuring scoring [points] potential. It does not measure (nor can it) other factors like leadership, physicality, and defensive play*. And, as I noted before, it does not seem to account for situation like Parascak playing 23-24 largely with Funk & Becher.

I saw the PG highlights from last weekend against Everett. Though, Parascak did not score, he seemed very dangerous, against a very good team.

Super impressed by what I saw.