I'd actually been thinking a lot about prospect tiers in context of the upcoming trade deadline. I mean, a lot. So I spit a ton of words out, largely train of thought.
The "tiers" are completely vague, subjective, and undefined. A little of "long term quality of player", a little of "value in a trade at the deadline", a little of "ceiling to floor" range/ratio, and whatever other conscious or subconscious factors go into weighing prospects.
Basically, no defined name or meaning behind each tier. Just "how do I feel about the player". And for the purpose of this using my own criteria I'm including LaPierre and Miro as prospects still. And just for the F of it and an eye towards recency, I'll add in Frank even though he's 26. I'm also adding Hunter Shepard because, goalies.
These are based on some new and some old info, some recent and some never watchings. More gut feel than anything else. Despite variable names, the tiers are generally 1 to N ranking, with players more or less ranked within the tiers too. I've probably got some recency bias here, both for and against certain guys. See blue.
Don't @ me with some ridiculous indignation over tier X or player Y, I'm just making shit up. Make up your own. Anyone here who's ever made a prospect projection has some piss poor ones in their history, so don't pretend your own shit doesn't stink.
Tier 1:
Ryan Leonard (RW/C) - I actually still question if TJ Oshie like on-ice impact (a guy who hit 30 goals only once, and averaged 25 goals and 32 assists per 82 games) is really to be valued as highly as we do. Impossible to measure intangibles though. And clearly he holds a high value. I think he's pretty much the only skater whose absolute floor, 1% outcome (barring catastrophic injury) is still an NHL caliber player due to everything he can be and do. Side related question, is he a Right Wing as listed in many places or could he actually be a Center in the NHL?
Tier 2: Perennial team leading goal scorer ... or Francois Bouchard
Andrew Cristall (LW) - Still not 100% convinced that his game will translate to the NHL well enough to enable his full goal scoring prowess. Basically, I think he has areas he'll need to work on and may still have some physical deficiencies (size and skating) that could limit him. But his ceiling is so high that he deserves a high spot on any thoughts about the future. Barring some surprises he should probably spend some time in Hershey next year to adapt to the pros. I'd hate to trade him because I can foresee regretting it big time in 5 years. But if it locks the Caps into perennial contender status for those 5 years, I'd do it.
Tier 3: Superstar in the making..... Or, Connor Carrick part deux
Cole Hutson (LHD) - His value is crazy high, his skill in some facets is crazy high, his performance in juniors has been awesome. But all of the reasons he and his brother were second rounders haven't suddenly magically changed. Maybe some (a lot of?) recency bias here.
Tier 4: NHLers of some type or soon to be
Ivan Miroshnichenko (LW) - Easy top 6 wing 25 goal scorer upside, needs to keep performing at a high level in Hershey, if he's going to hit his NHL potential I'll want to see him being a top AHL league-wide goal scorer.
Hendrix LaPierre (C) - Still have some confidence he can be an NHL top 6 center. Problem is that as of right now his game isn't really designed for a bottom 6 center role. He just needs to get some confidence back, scoring and skill rediscovered. I'm not worried about his development arc yet, he's still only 22 and has played 84 games in the NHL. But all that said, he's slowly slipping down the list, maybe more from the success of other guys than his own faults, and maybe there's some "prospect fatigue" going on, he was drafted 4 years ago. Next year is the do or die year for his "is this guy going to be good" rankings.
Vinny Iorio (RHD) - Will confess, I have no idea what to think of him. He's not a super dynamic offensive point getting d-man, he's not a 100% shutdown type either. But from all reports, he's playing well this year in top roles. Needs to be in the NHL next year. I guess he could be anything from a Lucas Johansen type to NHL second pairing. He might have more trade value based on the success he had in Juniors than his performance in pro might dictate. Also, he's a righty so that immediately means he's gold, right? But again, I really have no idea, these types of 'all around' defensemen are hard to gauge. I'll just conclude that he's close to the NHL and we or some other team will find out next year. I could see an argument for Iorio being anywhere from the top of this tier to the bottom of Tier 7. Oh my last thing on Iorio and what I really feel is, he's been a prospect for "so long now" that if he was going to be in the NHL he already would. I know, it's dumb, but that's how I feel. Some feelings of "oh, this guy is still here". But he still rates where he does on this list because he's ready for the NHL test.
Tier 5: The Chesley Tier
Ryan Chesley (RHD) - Successful in NCAA and WJC performance history, good pedigree, skilled. Likely to be an NHL player, but unsigned and will probably need some time in Hershey to adapt to the pros. I'd trade him without blinking as a core piece of a package for a top tier player coming back. He also falls into the "Caps have a roster size crunch coming" issue, not that they can't solve that trivially if needed. (Hanelt and a 7th for future considerations anyone?)
TIer 6: Big upside, but a ways to go.
Ilya Protas (LW) - Performance and numbers this year are certainly eye catching, height is too if you can actually see that high. Obviously it's easy to look at his brother and "project" Ilya to that, though that's probably some type of bias or another. I personally see him as highly likely to be a good NHLer, but at only 18, with 6 months before turning 19 still, and playing with a guy like Greentree that can cause stats to get inflated ... still has an error bar. I want to see where he plays next year (and how well he plays) since he's not locked into CHL for his age 19 season. I'm putting him over Parascak because of size and numbers at similar ages though the way they get those numbers are fairly different.
Terik Parascak (RW) - Is he the 1.54 PPG in his age 17 season or the 1.4 PPG in his age 18 season player? Highly skilled, no doubt. But far enough away to have questions. Might have a ton of trade value based more on pedigree than realistic expected outcome range. I give him a slight bump in our prospect ranks because he's one of only a very few right wings in our pipeline.
Tier 7: A mishmash of guys that fit in this range
Ethen Frank (RW) - A month ago he likely wouldn't have been here, but he's shown that his skills can translate to NHL play. How well? Would need more of a sample size to know. He's not suddenly going to grow 3 inches, but he's got the speed and shot to make an impact if he isnt deficient in other areas. Honestly, with more of a sample size and looking back this time next year, I could see him up near the top of Tier 4.
Bogdan Trineyev (LW) - At 22, still fairly young. Everyone who knows better than I says he's got a future on an NHL 4th line, at least, so I'll take that certainty of a floor over some ceilings.
Eriks Mateiko (LW) - Certainly made a name for himself at the WJC, increased his standing in a lot of places. His numbers in the QMJHL don't really stand out, he's 70th in PPG (>=10 games). I *think* he can go pro next season, he'll turn 20 during the season, but given expected logjams in Hershey and SC I think he'll benefit from staying in Juniors. Great size, good all around skill. I can see him getting NHL games in a few years. Might be one of those guys where recency bias (his WJC performance) makes him look and feel like a better prospect than he really is. I'm not immune to those biases.
Cam Allen (RHD) - Would the real Cam Allen please stand up? Was really good in his draft - 1, not as much in his draft year, really good this year. Turned 20 last week, so he SHOULD be one of the better players in juniors. Could have an NHL future. Could be more "name and numbers" than actual projected performance in all 3 zones necessary for NHL time. I'm not sure where he'll be a fit next year. Hershey will probably be stacked again and the Caps have a lot of good RHD prospects. South Carolina seems to unfortunately be where they stick the leftovers and forget about them at times. But still, to get him in the 5th round could end up being a steal.
Tier 8: International guys that have looked good at times and may have a real future but need to play in NA to know.
Muggli (LHD) - Has been playing big minutes in a full pro league since he was 17, he's still only 18, and reportedly not sucking at it. Except in major pressure events like WJC where he did more or less suck. Jury is still out, I want to see him in North America. He doesn't look like the type that will ever put up big offensive numbers, but could be a good stay at home guy. Reportedly plays very smart, effective.
Sikora (C) - We all saw WJC, he was good for a good team. Just turned 19, he's got good numbers for his age playing in the top tier pro league in Czechia. Among players under 20 with 10 or more games in that league he's third in PPG. (28th among players under 25, .07 PPG less than Jagr who is a laughable 33 years older than him, still not nuthin.) He is probably higher in rankings than many other 6th round picks. NHL height (6 feet), EP lists his weight at 174 which would need to go up but given his age that's not a concern. No clue if he's an NHLer down the road, just too far away, but some other GM may be a little extra starry eyed from his WJC performance.
Tier 9: Why isn't this guy playing regular minutes in Hershey?
Alexander Suzdalev (RW/LW/C Depending on the source) - One of those guys that is shaping up to be the type I don't understand. (See my previous obsession interest in Bear Hughes.) He's still only 20, a month younger than Miro, high scoring in SC, had significant prospect pedigree (mostly justified in my mind, though of course playing in Bedard's wing his path to points was greased). The team(s) may have mishandled his dev path last year. But his skill is too high to assume he's a career ECHL guy. I sort of feel like everyone on this list, he has the single largest range of "ceiling" (not impossible he isn't a top 6 NHL point scorer) to floor (playing in Europe in 2 years). Trade value wise ... I could see another GM, like the one in Chicago, wanting him enough.
Tier 10: Won't turn the tide on any trade proposal, but good guys to have in an org for depth and development
Henrik Rybinski (C/RW) - For some reason he doesn't feel at all like much of a prospect, just a career AHLer/depth guy. Maybe because they didn't draft him, signed him as a free agent 3 seasons later, so I didn't pay close attention to him in juniors. But then I look at his numbers in Hershey, age and height and start to think he could still end up play regular NHL games. Would maybe fit up in Tier 7.
Patrick Thomas (C) - Been prospect watching long enough to know not to trust overage numbers and how that will translate to NHL potential. But he's got qualities and skill that put him somewhere on a list.
(Bring Out The) Zac Funk (RW/LW?) - See Thomas, Patrick, above, but that was Funk last season, playing on a stacked team. I would've needed to see him perform better in Hershey/SC this season so far than he has to put him in a higher tier. I simply don't see it. As a very general rule, guys who are never drafted despite 3 full years in the WHL don't become NHL players. (Yeah, yeah, exception here, exception there, you all know what I mean.)
Tier 11: They might actually have some value to someone, but minimal
Brent Johnson (RHD) - I doubt he'll be Caps 'property' past summer 2025. But some other team might be interested in him enough to acquire his rights. He's flashy, has skills, shoots righty, but as of now I can't see him ever playing NHL minutes for a decent team.
Ryan Hofer (C?) - I personally really like his game from what I've seen and he has one of the things you can't teach in size, he's also got good sandpaper/edge. He's still only 22, could improve somewhat and maybe make an NHL appearance here or there down the road. But he probably has little to no impact on prospect rankings or trade deadline value.
Tier N: (not signed, and as of right now shouldn't be, I can't see any NHL team valuing them at this point):
Miro Satan Jr (C) - Between his draft pedigree, or lack thereof, and middling performance in USHL (for his age) and the WJC, I can't see him sniffing the NHL.
David Gucciardi (LHD) - Unlikely the be Caps property beyond 2025. He's the only senior defenseman on the #1 team in the country, which might count for something? (But not the captain or an assistant, in fact a Junior d-man wears one of the As, so...)
Tier Goalies: Who the F knows
Clay Stevenson - Rough year so far but has shown he has enough promise and skill and size to do something in the NHL.
Garin Bjorklund - Young enough (22) and playing well in the ECHL, he could still develop into .. something.
Hunter Shepard - ok, he's 29, not exactly a prospect, but since he could still cover backup goalie duties in the NHL while another guy is out, I'll include him, it's not impossible another (bad) NHL team would put some value on him for their org.
Nicholas Kempf - Has played well enough, youngly enough that he might be good? Put it this way, there isn't enough history yet to conclude that he's a nothing burger. Age 18, freshman, as the #2 goalie on an NCAA team (even a bad one) is worth keeping an eye on. (And, ND's conference is brutal - they actually has a winning non-conference record. So they might be better than their overall record would indicate.)
Mitchell Gibson - Same age as Stevenson (25) but a worse save percentage than Bjorklund (22) puts him after the other guys. Surprising if he ever showed regular NHL potential.
Chase Clark - 22, 3 years in NCAA for 3 different schools, hasn't shown anything to think he's anything more than tall, long-term.
Antoine Keller - 20 and playing in Swiss National League, though not all that well from his boxcars. But he's still in the magical mystery box phase.
