Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 2

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

My totally off the wall and out of my ass pocket GMing which I haven't really checked if works cap wise:
Ovechkin signs $9 x 4

Samsonov signs a bridge deal, 1 x $2million (I just don't think he has the statistical clout to really demand anything over $2 right now)

Kuznetsov is traded to MTL for Jake Evans, 2022 2nd rd pick, 2023 first round pick (Evans isn't a prospect by any means and slots into a bottom 6 role, I think MTL is in a delusional "win now" mode though and they clearly need a 1C. The Russians seem to like MTL so I don't think it's on his NMC list. The big issue though is I haven't the foggiest sense of what the hell Kuzy's value is in 2021, like he's such a mess, is this an over payment, an underpayment? In 2017-18 this is a joke of an offer, in 2020-21 this is maybe too much, who knows, it's what I'm going with.)

Washington signs Phillip Danault to $6.5 x 4 deal (I think Kuz only moves if this is who we're able to secure via UFA, I've seen speculation of him getting up to $7 but I also think the flat cap drags that down)

Washington trades Brenden Dillon to CGY for a 2022 3rd round pick (Gotta move someone, seems like a reasonable landing spot. He was moved to us in 2019 on TDL for a 2nd and conditional 3rd. He has term now, but again the flat cap knee caps all value.)

Now if you want to get really interesting, you can look at what Arizona has in Schmaltz and Dvorak, I can't wrap my head around any possible trades to make those two work, but it's certainly an intriguing idea. Either of those two would make a some peculiar 2nd-3rd line players. I think our biggest concern beyond the obvious is that our C depth looked pitiful last season, we need way more guys who can slot into both W and C and both these guys do.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Also tossing it out there, despite Friedmans baseless "I don't think he does that". Do we see Wash pitch a 1 year cheap deal due to the flat cap to Ovechkin and then revisit the deal next year or the year after.


I know that the speculation is it's going to remain flat for make 2 more years. But lets say Washington offers a 1-2 year cheap deal, and then an overpayment of 4 years once the cap opens up? Again, just fantasy booking, but would have to imagine they've discussed with him the cap limitations having somewhat of a expiration date

 

[Misery74]

Apparently, many GMs were traveling home from the draft yesterday. Expect action today.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Also tossing it out there, despite Friedmans baseless "I don't think he does that". Do we see Wash pitch a 1 year cheap deal due to the flat cap to Ovechkin and then revisit the deal next year or the year after.


I know that the speculation is it's going to remain flat for make 2 more years. But lets say Washington offers a 1-2 year cheap deal, and then an overpayment of 4 years once the cap opens up? Again, just fantasy booking, but would have to imagine they've discussed with him the cap limitations having somewhat of a expiration date

I’ve been wondering about this. Let’s say he takes a sweetheart 1-2 year deal, then they give him a longer deal, say taking him to 42 that is clearly overpriced….is the NHL going to squawk about that in terms of “circumvention”?

If not, basically pay him to retire with a huge deal at 37/38….what do we care about the cap in the rebuild period that’s coming 4-7 years from now?

 

[895]

If Vancouver buys out holtby...

1) First of all LOL at the horrific mismanagement.

2) Easy yes to a 1 year minimum deal to be backup here right?

3) Something must be wrong with Holtby to be washed up so early in his career when many goalies are good until late 30s/early 40s.

 

[HeyMattyB]

If Holtby does get bought out, does anybody really think that he's going to be desperate enough to sign a one-year minimum deal, especially if it's to be a backup? That there won't be other teams out there willing to offer more? He's a professional athlete. With an agent (whose job is to maximize his client's earnings.) Dude is going to get the best contract while he can, where he can. And that contract won't come from the Caps.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

I’ve been wondering about this. Let’s say he takes a sweetheart 1-2 year deal, then they give him a longer deal, say taking him to 42 that is clearly overpriced….is the NHL going to squawk about that in terms of “circumvention”?

If not, basically pay him to retire with a huge deal at 37/38….what do we care about the cap in the rebuild period that’s coming 4-7 years from now?

Different rules for different players.


The NHL isn't going to knee cap themselves by disqualifying an opportunity to have one of their premier players locked up long term as he chases one of hockeys most famous records, especially with ESPN taking over.


If this was some sort of rat f***ery to sign someone the casual fan has no concept of like Panarin, maybe... but even then the NHL has two problems:

1. The flat cap means that teams must get creative, if they nixed a deal like that it would force a lot of PR in the mainstream press that essentially portrays the league as financially unstable. Can't really blame teams for trying to circumvent some cap issues when the cap hasn't increased in two years.


2. NHL kind of painted themselves into a "technically it's allowed" corner with the TBL roster. You can't be like "wait that's cap circumvention" when your back-to-back winner was $18 million over the cap and clearly sat out two stars for at least 25% of the season.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

If Holtby does get bought out, does anybody really think that he's going to be desperate enough to sign a one-year minimum deal, especially if it's to be a backup? That there won't be other teams out there willing to offer more? He's a professional athlete. With an agent (whose job is to maximize his client's earnings.) Dude is going to get the best contract while he can, where he can. And that contract won't come from the Caps.

Holtby made it clear as he left that he was not interested in any sort of mentoring position and that he didn't feel like that role suited him. I love Holtby, but Samsonov 1000% needs some wily old vet who is going to take him under his wing. Kid has million dollar talent and a 5 cent brain. Holtby returns and he's going to try and reclaim the 1G, he's not getting bought out and resigning himself to a backup role, that's not in his DNA. Holtby came up in the Michal Neuvirth era of every man for himself, there was a stretch of like 5-6 years where our goalie room was just constantly filled with guys who were convinced they were the 1G and they just needed the opportunity, that doesn't breed a lot of camaraderie. I wish more was written about that era's goalies because Varlamov, Neuvirth, Holtby, Grubauer all clearly believed they were ready to be a 1G and they never seemed to really embrace the "we're a tandem" thing. Anyways, I think Holtby probably just doesn't look at being a goalie as a shared thing, I think our excellent goalie pipeline bred this competitive thirst.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Apparently, many GMs were traveling home from the draft yesterday. Expect action today.

I'm not sure about that. By all appearances via the ESPN program most of the GMs were making the picks from their teams training centers, i.e. Drury, Yzerman just to name a few.

 

[Corby78]

its not like penalty killing is a particular difficult thing to learn. You run and chase guys. It's probably one of the easier parts of the game to pass off to a young guy looking to make an impact. We have players capable of doing that, so I'm not overly concerned about the PK impacts of dumping Hagelin

ahh, its not that easy to do well, its draining, it hurts, and most fans will think you suck at it.

 

[trick9]

Ovechkin is the last player that should take a discount on this franchise.

 

[OV Rocks]

Holtby made it clear as he left that he was not interested in any sort of mentoring position and that he didn't feel like that role suited him. I love Holtby, but Samsonov 1000% needs some wily old vet who is going to take him under his wing. Kid has million dollar talent and a 5 cent brain. Holtby returns and he's going to try and reclaim the 1G, he's not getting bought out and resigning himself to a backup role, that's not in his DNA.

"Holtby made it clear as he left that he was not interested in any sort of mentoring position and that he didn't feel like that role suited him."

And yet he signs with Vancouver and halfway through year 1, a shortened season, he found himself as the backup and mentor to Demko. I think his role is pretty obvious to him now.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

If Vancouver buys out holtby...

1) First of all LOL at the horrific mismanagement.

2) Easy yes to a 1 year minimum deal to be backup here right?

3) Something must be wrong with Holtby to be washed up so early in his career when many goalies are good until late 30s/early 40s.

VAN buying out Holtby who has only 1 year left in a flat cap era when they're no where near Cup competitive would be a low key top 5 worst GM moves in the last decade.

Just bite the bullet for a year you knobs. Imagine just pissing away $2 million in cap space for an extra year when the cap is going to be flat again next year and for what? For what purpose? To earn the 12th overall pick instead of the 8th?

 

[g00n]

VAN buying out Holtby who has only 1 year left in a flat cap era when they're no where near Cup competitive would be a low key top 5 worst GM moves in the last decade.

Just bite the bullet for a year you knobs. Imagine just pissing away $2 million in cap space for an extra year when the cap is going to be flat again next year and for what? For what purpose? To earn the 12th overall pick instead of the 8th?

It's Vancouver, so probably fan appeasement.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

"Holtby made it clear as he left that he was not interested in any sort of mentoring position and that he didn't feel like that role suited him."

And yet he signs with Vancouver and halfway through year 1, a shortened season, he found himself as the backup and mentor to Demko. I think his role is pretty obvious to him now.

I think you're conflating the role he's been put into with the role he wants to be in.


You can't make someone want to become a mentor and pull off on the reigns. It was pretty damn clear his last season here that he was not the 1G moving forward and his remarks were pretty much "it's not my job to be his mentor"

 

[BiPolar Caps]

VAN buying out Holtby who has only 1 year left in a flat cap era when they're no where near Cup competitive would be a low key top 5 worst GM moves in the last decade.

Just bite the bullet for a year you knobs. Imagine just pissing away $2 million in cap space for an extra year when the cap is going to be flat again next year and for what? For what purpose? To earn the 12th overall pick instead of the 8th?

Shhh! They may just be making room for one or more of Schultz, Dillon, Hagelin, Kempny and even Copley.

 

[txpd]

I agree that Hathaway & Hagelin have been key role players on that 4th line and the PK. But perhaps it's time to start looking inside the organization for a number of reasons, such as cap space, getting younger, and also providing opportunities.

Dare I say that Malenstyn (if recovered from his injury) can take on Hathaway's role. Between Fjalby, Pilon, and Gersich (yes Gersich), you have players with speed, 2 of which are on par with or better than Hagelin. All of these guys play a 200 foot game and have developed into solid PKers. They also have more scoring touch as well. Maybe it's time to start giving these guys a chance.

It takes years to develop a rookie into a "solid PKer". Defending has a much great experience component than does offense. A reason that Hagelin is so good at it is because of the experience. It took Tom Wilson around 3 seasons of steady grown with his speed and reach. This was after being a basic 4th liner for a couple of seasons before that.

I can buy that the Caps cant afford an elite penalty killer and will have to do their best with kids. Its a choice you make and a price you are willing to pay. In my view the Caps can afford to lose more offense than they can afford to lose defense because their goaltending is so unstable and their offense so consistent. MacLellan has chosen to add Mantha rather than make that Vrana cap space available to pay for defense(defensemen, defensive forwards, penalty killers and goaltenders).

I dont think its a good idea to project that Feharvary and Orlov would be as strong on the pk as Dillon and Chara or even competitive. When the Caps had to trade MoJo, it was a necessary move but their pp zone entries suffered as a result. They may have to give up Hagelin, Dillon and Chara. Their penalty kill and goals against will suffer as a result. Its a thing that needs to be handled one way or another

 

[BiPolar Caps]

So we return to the Metropolitan Division this season and the following teams:
Carolina
Columbus
New Jersey
Islanders
Rangers
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh

I have to say I'm not that optimistic for the coming season. I believe this team is trending downwards and may be better then only Columbus, New Jersey and possibly Philadelphia. I believe the Islanders will win the Division, followed by the Canes, Rangers and Penguins. We may not make the playoffs (but the window), which may be a good thing as we approach the TDL we'll be sellers for once and we'll also have something to look forward to in the first 90 minutes of next year's draft.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ovechkin is the last player that should take a discount on this franchise.

I agree…but a discount isn’t being suggested really. But maybe they can backload his pay with a beefy 3-5 year extension after 2 seasons? Overcompensate him then to help the cap crunch now….

either that or give the guy an 8 year deal now to lower his cap hit….

 

[Hivemind]

Really doubt Holtby will be bought out. Vancouver shot down a trade of Holtby to Seattle saying they felt they had better offers. That implies that they have a plan to get rid of Holtby that's not a buyout.

3) Something must be wrong with Holtby to be washed up so early in his career when many goalies are good until late 30s/early 40s.

Some goalies last a while, other's don't. It's a fickle position.
Ilya Bryzgalov finished 2nd in Vezina voting when he was 29, 6th when he was 30, and was out of the league when he was 34.
Cory Schneider was one of the most consistent, top-level goalies in the league from 2010-2016, then it all went to shit when he turned 30 and he's been clinging to the very fringes of the league (taxi squad/#3) from ages 33-35.
Sergei Bobrovsky beat Holtby for the 2016-17 Vezina (Bob's 2nd), finished top 10 in Vezina voting the next two seasons, and now looks like possibly the worst contract in the entire NHL at age 32.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

"Holtby made it clear as he left that he was not interested in any sort of mentoring position and that he didn't feel like that role suited him."

And yet he signs with Vancouver and halfway through year 1, a shortened season, he found himself as the backup and mentor to Demko. I think his role is pretty obvious to him now.

if his mindset hasn’t been adjusted, he may be delusional. He’s going to be lucky to be in the league in 2 years at this pace…

I’d give him a 50/50 shot at the starter role….competition is competition, but he’s earned a backup salary next year IMO. Earn it back if you can Holts.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Capfriendly currently shows the Capitals having projected cap space of $9,735,407

• If the talk is true, Ovechkin signs for $10,000,00, then the Capitals will be $264,593 over the cap
• Fehervary is brought up that's an add of $791,667 to the salary cap or putting the team at $1,056,260 over the cap
• Capitals need to resign Samsonov as he's currently a RFA. Just for this exercise we're going with a salary of 1.5 for Samsonov, which now puts the them at 2,556,260 over the cap.
• Capitals will need a back up to Samsonov, let's say it's Fucale who's salary is at 750 K. That will bring the Capitals to 3,306,620 over the cap.

So the Capitals at the very least will need to clear 3,306,620 from their cap.

Justin Schultz at 4 mil would make the most sense with the least amount of roster movement.

Defense could then look something like
Carlson - Orlov
TVR - Dillon
Fehervary - Jensen
Kempny

 

[Misery74]

Capfriendly currently shows the Capitals having projected cap space of $9,735,407

• If the talk is true, Ovechkin signs for $10,000,00, then the Capitals will be $264,593 over the cap
• Fehervary is brought up that's an add of $791,667 to the salary cap or putting the team at $1,056,260 over the cap
• Capitals need to resign Samsonov as he's currently a RFA. Just for this exercise we're going with a salary of 1.5 for Samsonov, which now puts the them at 2,556,260 over the cap.
• Capitals will need a back up to Samsonov, let's say it's Fucale who's salary is at 750 K. That will bring the Capitals to 3,306,620 over the cap.

So the Capitals at the very least will need to clear 3,306,620 from their cap.

This is helpful, but we need a veteran backup. So I would push that number to $4m. Does this also include CMM?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Different rules for different players.


The NHL isn't going to knee cap themselves by disqualifying an opportunity to have one of their premier players locked up long term as he chases one of hockeys most famous records, especially with ESPN taking over.


If this was some sort of rat f***ery to sign someone the casual fan has no concept of like Panarin, maybe... but even then the NHL has two problems:

1. The flat cap means that teams must get creative, if they nixed a deal like that it would force a lot of PR in the mainstream press that essentially portrays the league as financially unstable. Can't really blame teams for trying to circumvent some cap issues when the cap hasn't increased in two years.


2. NHL kind of painted themselves into a "technically it's allowed" corner with the TBL roster. You can't be like "wait that's cap circumvention" when your back-to-back winner was $18 million over the cap and clearly sat out two stars for at least 25% of the season.

They didn’t do it to Selanne and Kariya when they joined the Avs for the Cup Run

I think Ovy could do a 1yr deal. Next year we have some decent salary coming off the books, so will have more flexibility. Kempny and Schultz come off the books. 6.5m in freedom.

so Ovy takes 1yr 5m. Gives them 3m to sign Sammy and wiggle room. And IF they can then trade salary from a position of strength (hockey trades), then so be it.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

This is helpful, but we need a veteran backup. So I would push that number to $4m. Does this also include CMM?

It does not include CMM or his 863,333 salary.

As I noted in another post, I'm not optimistic about the season as I think the team is beginning to trend downwards with age and a lot of question marks. Because of this, I envision that we'll be sellers come the TDL and can move the likes of Dowd, Kempny and Schultz if he's still with the team at the very least at that time as they'll all be UFAs after this season. I also think that we can possibly move some other contracts with one season remaining which would be the likes of Hagelin, Jensen and others possibly. Time to give some of the "yutes" their shot, i.e. CMM, AA, Malenstyn, AJF.